Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes reported today.
DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.
STRONG COMMODITY PRICES
ANZ's commodity price index jumped in October - but only in NZD. That index was up to a level we last saw very briefly in February 2014 and before that March 2011. That makes October 2017 the third highest ever. In US dollar terms, meat, horticulture and forest products all showed good gains. October world prices were close to a three year high.
VEHICLE RECORDS
There were 14,118 used imports registered in October, the highest October ever for this type of vehicle. And at 162,571 in the last 12 months, that is the highest annual rate ever as well. (The highest single month was 14,877 in March 2004.) This comes after October brought record new car sales of 11,114, the highest of any month, ever. (But don't forget its not a one-way street, NZTA reports that the national fleet loses about -150,000 vehicles per year due to scrappage, exporting, of the ~360,000 vehicles arriving.)
'WE DON'T NEED THE CASH'
Stronger than expected tax revenues and better than expected dividend flows from SOEs has resulted in faster than expected growth in the Government's cash flows. That in turn has mean't that the sydnication of its April 2029 nominal bond issue needs to be pushed back, Treasury said today. They still say it will happen, but now later than originally planned.
ANOTHER ONE
Another senior banking exec is calling it quits. ASB has announced that Kevin McDonald, the bank’s Chief Risk Officer, has made the decision to retire from ASB in June 2018.
FEE CHANGES
Westpac today highlighted a set of fee changes for customers that have happened over 2017. Eleven different fees have been reduced, while five have been "realigned or increased".
UNCHANGED
Every quarter, the RBNZ conducts a survey of inflation expectations. The latest survey results are out today and they reveal little change; consumers indicate they still expect inflation to rise at just over +2%.
DONE BY CHRISTMAS
Private insurers are on track to meet their target of having the majority of Kaikōura earthquake settlements complete by year-end the Insurance Council of New Zealand reported today. So far, private insurers have fully settled 69% of all residential and commercial claims for the 14 November earthquake.
A COMMODITY ON THE UP
Aluminium prices have hit a six year high in NZD and a five+ year high in US dollars.
PARADISE PAPERS WATCH
Inland Revenue is keeping a close eye on the release of papers related to the Bermudan law firm Appleby and is working closely with relevant agencies and our international treaty partners. IRD says they are interested in hearing from any New Zealand taxpayer with exposure to Appleby.
WHOLESALE RATES UNCHANGED
Swap rates are pretty much unchanged today although five, seven and ten year rates are off by just -1 bp. There is a slow steady flattening of the rate curve going on, with the 2-10 down to 96 bps and that is its lowest since mid-September. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.94%. The lack of direction will likely stay until we get RBNZ signals on Thursday.
NZ DOLLAR HOLDS RECENT GAINS, BITCOIN EVEN HIGHER
The NZ dollar has held most of last week's gains and still at 69 USc. On the cross rates we are at 90.3 AUc and at 59.5 euro cents. The TWI-5 is at 72.5. The bitcoin price is higher again, now at US$7,368 and up another +4.8% on the day. Eight hours ago it hit US$7,600 as a new all-time record and that put it briefly over NZ$11,000.
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4 Comments
Australia’s economy is forecast to grow above trend and a burst of hiring is keeping unemployment down. Yet inflation, the last piece of the policy-tightening puzzle, remains weak and shows few signs of life.
That means Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe -- whose board is forecast to keep the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent Tuesday -- is unlikely to follow the U.S., Canada and the U.K. in raising borrowing costs just yet. Lowe himself has said he’s not obliged to follow counterparts’ tightening; but that doesn’t mean he won’t if a record-low rate looks completely out of whack. Read more
Will pragmatism prevail?
Every quarter, the RBNZ conducts a survey of inflation expectations. The latest survey results are out today and they reveal little change; consumers indicate they still expect inflation to rise at just over +2%.
Unfortunately:
Rising living costs seeing more families turning to food banks
What sort of shit-show are we running?
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