A review of things you need to know before you go home Wednesday; low dairy prices may bring reduced payout; strong vehicle sales, job ad growth stops, AU GDP underwhelms, swaps lower, flatter, NZD up, bitcoin jumps

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

No changes to report today.

None here either.

The latest dairy auction brought no meaningful rise in prices, so analysts are now eyeing a cut in Fonterra's farm gate price estimate. That might come as early as tomorrow morning. And despite the virtual no-change in the auction price, the derivatives market is doubling down on the higher-price expectation for WMP.

We reported the strong November new vehicle sales on Monday. Now we have the data for used imports and they are equally strong, if not more so. 14,924 used cars were imported in November, the highest month ever. That takes the annual flow in for this class of vehicle to 164,733, also an all-time record. Add that to the 108,535 new cars and the 51,244 commercial vehicles and you can see Kiwis are voting with their wallets for updating their personal transportation. All up, that is a +29,600 or +10.0% rise in twelve months.

The ANZ job ads data fell slightly in November from October. But the volumes are actually +5.7% this year than in the same month a year ago. Annual job ads growth in Canterbury and Wellington eased to +6% and +8% respectively while Auckland is slowly heading towards a flat out-turn. Maybe that is to be expected because 46.7% of all job ads are for Auckland positions. ANZ says there is plenty to ponder with recent labour demand indicators. Job ads are perched at high levels but growth rates are easing. Official labour market data has been volatile of late, while a timely read on business hiring intentions from their Business Outlook survey indicates apprehension about the business environment. Still, they expect a modest pick-up in wage growth.

And speaking of Auckland jobs, up to 10,000 new jobs could be created by 2041 on land in the proposed Silverdale West Dairy Flat Business Area. The area has been brought forward for development to between 2018 and 2022 in the refreshed Future Urban Land Supply Strategy.

And speaking of local authorities, the rate of growth in rates and other regulatory revenue by local authorities is starting to moderate. They were up by just +3.1% in the year to September, a far more moderate pace than the +8.9% rise in the year to June 2015. Still, this monopoly revenue is now +4.1% higher in the year to September than in the prior full year. Local authorities aren't constrained by real world inflation (wages +1.7%, consumer prices +1.9%).

But the Government is moving to constrain the private sector. It will now probe petrol prices (up +16.1% in six months) and beef up the Commerce Commission powers by enabling the consumer watchdog to undertake broad market studies.

An official inquiry into Havelock North water contamination finds 'widespread' and 'systemic' failures among NZ's water suppliers. Local councils and the Ministry of Health are to blame they say. The consequences? well, they will fall on ratepayers and taxpayers, the very people who are the victims of the failures.

The September quarter economic growth in Australia has disappointed markets, coming it at +2.8% when they were expecting +3.0%. The AUD got marked down as a result. (The New Zealand Q3 GDP outcome is due to be released on December 21 and markets are expecting a +2.6% annual growth rate here.)

Swap rates fell and flattened today with all the reductions coming at the long end. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.90%.

The NZ dollar is unchanged at 68.9 USc. On the cross rates we are up at 90.9 AUc on the disappointing Aussie GDP data and 58.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 71.8. Bitcoin has just taken off again, now up to US$12,124 an new all-time record (NZ$18,420).

You can now see an animation of this chart. Click on it, or click here.

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Source: CoinDesk

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BNZ dropped their Special T/D for 180days from 3.6% to 3.25%? Or did that happen yesterday!?

yes, we reported yesterday

Dozens of New Zealanders spent valuable company time and bandwidth commenting on Interest.co.nz. Dozens!

I dunno. I haven't had time to comment until now.



Yesterday, we delivered 56,000 pages of content in 24,000 sessions to 18,000 unique-in-the-day readers. We got 307 comments from 99 of those readers. Only one person in every 180 comments. We love our commenters (0.6%), but they don't reflect our actual readership.

As a website owner / operator myself, those are very impressive numbers indeed. Well done!

We love our commenters (0.6%), but they don't reflect our actual readership.

Reflect what? If the actual readership fails to air their views how do you know? Do they PM you personally because they fear public ridicule?

I think the reference is to volume, not content.

We are prodigious commenters, true.

Probably just a statistical assumption. Commenters tend to be passionate and hold more extreme views than average. Self selection bias.

Which implies statistically independent sampling routines.

Stossel makes some good points here regarding the NYT.
He should have mentioned the Washington Post and CNN as well.

The New York Times drives John Stossel crazy. He wants to rip it up, because so many stories have left-wing bias.



My final post at Interest.co. Wishing all that contribute, definitely those that make it possible to contribute and those that may not contribute with finger to keyboard but contribute nonetheless a wonderful xmas.

I suppose it's the time of year you take the boat to the Bay of Island for a bit of sailing and fishing. Take care, have one on me and enjoy the new year.

Yeah. I think we are going to sell our bitcoins now.

For fabricated bank credit, relabeled as deposits, masquerading as money, which it intends to replace?

Stephen, I think Bitcoin value will crash sooner and harder than bank credit, although we'll keep maybe 15%. And we will do something else with the "bank credit" quickly don't worry.

Don't accept it as payment for labour rendered, only as unearned income?

I think you are looking at bitcoin in the wrong way. If you assume bitcoin is relatively stable with respect to holding value then the USD is fluctuating wildly and has dropped in buying power substantially.

Yes indeed. It's really a reflection of the uncertain value of the green digital stuff that rules us. Money isn't what it used to be. Why, I hear there was a time when an ordinary man could buy a house and pay off the mortgage in ten or 15 years.

As early adopters mining bitcoin, buying mining equipment many moons ago, more of an experiment than anything else, a small outlay at the time.... are you really suggesting that we should not cash it in? Why on earth would we not do that? Should we expect all the boomers to suddenly admit their houses are over priced and sell us a home at a fair value instead? I doubt that. We want to build a home. Bitcoin has helped.

"Homes listed for sale in Sydney were up 5.6 per cent for the month and 20.1 per cent compared with a year ago, according to SQM Research."

"With 33,046 listings, the city had the largest number of homes for sale since October 2012 as owners sought to take profits on the tail end of the five-year boom. Nationwide, property listings ­increased 3.2 per cent month-on-month, with Sydney leading the pack. Canberra was the only other city to achieve a double-digit year-on-year increase, with listings up 10.8 per cent."

“The buyers aren’t as strong as they were in the previous year, when anything you listed would sell within three weeks,”

Cashing in the chips?