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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; TSB cuts rates, NZX50 resists Wall Street, Aussie units rise more than houses; eyes on dairy prices, swaps unchanged, NZD slips

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; TSB cuts rates, NZX50 resists Wall Street, Aussie units rise more than houses; eyes on dairy prices, swaps unchanged, NZD slips

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today:

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has cut its 12 and 18 month 'specials' and raised its 2 year special. But all these changes leave it at a market leading position compared to every bank except HSBC Premier.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
TSB Bank has also cut -10 bps off its cheque and savings account interest rates.

LOCAL RESISTANCE
After opening sharply lower today following the rough trading session in New York, both the ASX and NZX indices are now back in positive territory with small gains over the pre-Wall Street dump levels we had on Thursday. But Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Tokyo are all lower, taking their cue's from Wall Street.

STRONGER DEMAND FOR UNITS THAN DETACHED HOMES
Home prices across Australia's major cities slipped for a sixth straight month in March, with Sydney leading the falls, but the worst may be over for the city's property owners, according to CoreLogic. Interestingly, they also note that their March home value indices show that the unit sector is now consistently outperforming the detached housing market - a trend which has been evident since mid-2017.

FAST ADOPTION
In Australia they now have almost 3 mln fibre broadband connections. (New Zealand has about 500,000.) This is bringing a strong rise in the use of the internet for a variety of purposes. But with the roll-out of mobile 5G imminent, the concern is that the fixed line infrastructure may be ramping up just as the technology moves on to wireless capability.

EYES ON DAIRY PRICES
Tomorrow is another dairy auction and the futures market is signaling a -2.7% drop in WMP prices. That would follow the +0.1% rise two weeks ago.

FLOWING SMOOTHLY
It is very noticeable in Auckland today that the roading network is coping without any issues. The one key difference is that schools aren't operating. Auckland's infrastructure is just fine; it is parent taxis and student cars that cause it to break down ;) It is probably the same in most other major centres.

NOT AS POSITIVE
An American trend to watch: for the first time ever, young Americans are less optimistic than their parents. It is an unusual, unique trend.

OLD STYLE, NEW RISK
For people of a certain age who remember cheques (like me), here is an interesting Canadian case of a consequence of technology. Old banking ways are 'colliding with our smartphones' as the popularity of banking apps increases. In North America is is still common to be paid by cheque. And some people have worked out you can deposit them multiple times (with different banks) because popular banking apps allow cheques to be deposited with a photo. Then the onus is on the employer to prove they have been defrauded. Cheque fraud has always been common, but this new risk will hasten they demise.

BENCHMARK INTEREST RATES HOLD
Local wholesale swap rates have changed very little today, with a couple of items -1 bp and +1 bp. The UST 10yr yield is now at 2.74%. The Aussie Govt 10 yr is holding at its low 2.59%. The China 10 yr is also unchanged at 3.75% and the NZ Govt 10 yr is down -3 bps at 2.73%. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bps to 1.97%.

BITCOIN HOLDS ON
The bitcoin price is now just over US$7,000 having eked out a small gain today. It is now at US$7,062 after spending the past four days just below US$7,000. And the IRD has issued a statement reminding cryptocurrency speculators (and that's everyone buying or selling them) of their NZ tax obligations.

NZ DOLLAR SLIPS
The NZD is down to just on 72 USc. On the cross rates we are lower too at 93.9 AUc and at 58.5 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 73.3.

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11 Comments

Also in the news today Jacinda Ardern has sold her Point Chevalier home to a young family. It wasn't advertised publicly and no price has been revealed.

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The US stock markets are not only the biggest in the world , they are also the most expensive .

There is danger out there , especially for dual listed or multi listed stocks like BHP

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Boatman, note concern raised over the increase in Libor rates mentioned at the base of the article here; http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=120…

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A snapshot of the Irish housing market. Q1 2018. House prices rose in 53 of the 54 market areas,compared to Q4 2017. Average annual inflation 7.3 percent. Dublin average up 145000E in past 5 years, national prices up 83000E from low point, Dublin up 67 percent from low point. CPI has flat lined for the past 5 years, removing private rents a negative outcome. Population up 50000 annually, planning permission for only 20000 homes, of which 5000 are units. Stock for sale 20300 nationally

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What about the Ghanean housing market?

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Australia hold rates at 1.5 percent

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Australia has fibre to the node which apparently gives speeds from 1Mbps to 100 Mbps by copper pair to the home. It's different to what we have here. Also copper is at the end of its useful life. In the future when fibre is upgraded Australia will fall behind unless they fun the last km in fibre instead of copper. That will be expensive and viewed as a mistake.

5G is good but high speeds only work if you aren't sharing them with others. It will make for interesting and viable competition.

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Agreed - would be a lot more fun if the last km was fibre instead of copper.

But yes, we are fortunate not to have this fibre to node carry-on - which has left many end users somewhat bewildered and dodgy providers pockets being questionably lined.

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Err, we have had fibre to the node since about 2012ish. what do you think VDSL is? Fibre to the node(cabinet), copper to the home.

https://billbennett.co.nz/fibre-node-australia-new-zealand/

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Who is pushing fibre to VDSL big time here anymore - apart from apartment dwellers etc.

The Ozzy end user thought they were getting fibre to the home - with equivalent speeds / performance.

It was about dodgy salesmanship.

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I was just pointing out that we already had fibre to the node.. we didn't bypass it, we did that then stepped up to FTTH. (Well most of us did.. where I am now didn't get FTTN and now we languish on slow ADSL or 4G broadband until they get round to FTTH sometime in late 2019.)

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