A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; no rate changes, business confidence falls, building consents fall except in Auckland, other construction mixed, methane effect sorted, swaps down, NZD drops

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Again, no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either.

BIGGER ELEPHANT
The 'elephant with neon lights' just got bigger today with more than half of all businesses now expecting economic conditions to worsen. This hesitation is very likely to get reflected in investment decisions, which would result in lower economic activity and lower growth (and probably lower employment). The Aug-17 to Aug-18 drop of -75 bps is the third largest fall since 1999. More here. Despite the unchanged 'own activity' result, our currency tumbled more than -½c on the release. The recent 'charm offensive' clearly hasn't worked.

MOMENTUM
New dwelling consents were at elevated levels in Auckland last month, but were lower in most other main centres. Auckland seems to betting momentum now with more than 1000 consents issued in each of the last five months.

YIELD HOLDING LOW
The latest tender of 10 year NZ Govt bonds delivered bids for $731 mln for the $250 mln offered. The yield was 2.57%, very similar to the same tender three weeks ago.

DENTED CONFIDENCE HURTS CONSTRUCTION
Some of the lower business confidence can be attributed to the construction sector. Infometrics reports: "There was $517 mln worth of non-residential consents in July, down -10% from a year earlier, reversing out most of the growth seen in June. Growth is tracking in two different directions when non-residential consents are broken down by new and Alterations & Additions (A&A) categories. New consents are gathering momentum, but A&A consents trended downwards over the past few months." That goes to the heart of the confidence problem: the long-lead-time "new" stuff is still coming through, but there is already a pullback in the short-lead-time A&A improvement projects.

A FIRST 2018 DIP
Australia has reported lower residential dwelling consents today. There are down -4.1% in July compared with July 2017. This is the first time this metric has turned negative in 2018.

THE SCIENCE
The latest scientific review of the required reduction in methane from livestock, which has been hotly debated recently, shows that the reductions required are "between 10-22%" from 2016 levels - by 2050. That is more than Victoria University estimates, but far less than some partisan campaigners had been pushing for. The chances are this will settle the issue for farming and become part of the official settings.

SPENDING LESS
The latest (July) data was released today on international visitor spending an dit showed a drop, mainly because the prior year reference point included the Lions Tour. But the report also noted that spending measurements will also be elevated because tourists also have to spend more on petrol - so any rise can't only be assumed to be ' good for the economy'. The fastest-growing regions were Gisborne (up +17.2%), Canterbury (up +14.0%) and Taranaki (up +13.6%).

SWAP RATES LOWER
Wholesale swap rates are down -2 bps across the board, falling after the business confidence data release. The UST 10yr is unchanged at 2.88%. The UST 2-10 curve is now just under +21 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.57% (down -1 bp), the China Govt 10yr is at 3.63% (down -1 bp), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is now at 2.59%, down a chunky -5 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.91%.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is unchanged today at US$7,002.

NZD DROPS
The NZD is down to 66.7 USc. On the cross rates we are down to 91.5 AUc after reaching 91.9 AUc at one point, and down to just under 57 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 at 70.2, down almost -1% on the day.

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