A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; key rate changes, job ads & retail looking up, building consents and business confidence down, TPP ratified, swaps rise, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ cut its 1 year fixed rate today to 4.15%.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
FE Investments raised their one year rate by +10 bps to 4.50%. Westpac cut its one year rate by -5 bps to 3.40%

GLOOM LIFTING?
Despite deep retailer gloom over the winter months, where more than half of retailers didn't hit their sales targets in the quarter ended 30 September, the sector is more positive about likely business performance in the run-up to Christmas.

JOB ADS GROW STRONGLY
MBIE's Jobs Online report for September posted a strong showing, rising +2.2% from August and is now more than +14% higher than the same month a year ago.

STARTING BEHIND
The Crown accounts have started the new budget year with a small deficit of -$343 mln and slightly worse than Treasury was anticipating. Tax collections are lower than expected because company profits are slipping. Tax collected from individuals is marginally ahead of budget.

LACKLUSTER
New dwelling consents took a breather in September, mainly due to a drop in the number of stand alone houses and apartments being consented, while townhouse and home unit consents were up. Overall however, were down -7.6% in September compared to a year ago. After a strong run of monthly consents in Auckland which averaged 1,221 per month from March to August, September was weak with only 854 approved.

LOW AND FLAT
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows shows sharp drop in intentions to construct in both residential and commercial sectors. Overall business confidence is unchanged at low levels. A rebound expected by the Government is not happening.

THE ALTERATIONS & ADDITION MARKET SURGES
Infometrics reports: Non-residential consent growth was marginal in September, recording only a +1.7% lift from a year earlier. Consents for new buildings were still weak, down -1.8% over the period. Only substantial growth in alterations and additions consents (up +15%) offset the decline in new non-residential building consents.

TOUGH GOING
Dairy co-operative Westland Milk has been forced to cut its 2018/19 milk payout forecast.

HOME DETENTION FOR TAX EVADER
A plasterer and seller of health food supplements who aligned himself with anti-tax movements has been given home detention for tax evasion. David John Buisson, 69, of Whangamata was sentenced in the Tauranga District Court to 12 months home detention and 300 hours of community work for evading the assessment and payment of $214,668 in GST and income tax.

BIG FINE FOR FINANCE COMPANY
Finance company Aotea Finance (West Auckland) Limited (Aotea West Auckland) has been fined $48,750 for taking security over prohibited items such as beds and cooking equipment.

CONSTRUCTION INFLATION
According to Rider Levett Bucknall’s 4th Quarter 2018 International Report, skilled labour shortages are being seen within the industry across New Zealand. With historically low investment in technology, plant and training, given the cyclical nature of the industry, shortages of skills and static productivity are some of the contributors to increased costs and project performance. Despite these shortages, there remains a strong pipeline of work throughout the three key markets. For 2019, they are forecasting construction cost growth of +3.5% in Auckland, +2.0% in Christchurch and +4.0% in Wellington.

MOMENTOUS
Australia has come through with ratification of the updated CPTPP trade deal. That means that the Agreement is now official and in effect and tariff cuts for New Zealand exports will start in January 2019 for the six signers so far. The other five are expected to ratify in the next few weeks. It has been a long road, and in the end all done without the US. Our horticulture, beef and wine industries will be the first to benefit.

LOWER CLAIMS HISTORY PAYS OFF
ACC is proposing a nearly 7% average reduction in the Work Account levy for 2019-21.

$125 BLN EXPOSED TO RATE RESETS
The rise in home loan balances has drifted lower. In September we owed banks $252.3 bln for these loans, and that is +5.8% higher than a year ago. 49.4% or $125 bln of these bank loans will need a rate reset in the next year, and that is higher than in August. The mortgages owed to non-bank financial companies is only $2.5 bln, but that is growing exceptionally fast, up +23% in a year.

STILL NOT READY
The long (long) awaited changes to the way fire and other emergency services are funded have been put back again. Issues need to be "thought through", the minister claims. The current funding via attaching these charges to insurance levies from home owners and businesses has been extended.

MARKETS UP
Earlier in the day, Wall Street ended solidly firmer with a +1.6% gain. That hasn't carried over to either the Australian or New Zealand equities markets, but both are posting small gains so far today. Shanghai has just opened and mid-morning it is up +1% after posting a +1% rise yesterday as the 'home team' of state institutions re-entered their markets as instructed buyers.

SWAP RATES RISE
Swap rates are up and steeper across the curve today. The two year is unchanged, the five year is up +2 bps and the ten year is up +3 bps. The UST 10yr yield is also firmer and now at 3.13%. The UST 2-10 curve is now under +27 bps. Other benchmark bond rates are firming as well. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.61% (up +2 bps), the China Govt 10yr is going the other way 3.57% (down -1 bp), while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.57% and up +2 bps. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 1.91%.

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is virtually identical to its price yesterday at US$6,287.

NZD FIRM
The NZD is marginally firmer at 65.5 USc. On the cross rates we are also firmer at 92.5 AUc, and 57.8 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 at just over 70.2.

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