President Donald Trump could destabilise China's economy, unleash a new European financial crisis and push up global interest rates in a way that slows New Zealand's economy and makes mortgages more expensive

By Bernard Hickey

Making predictions can be a hazardous task, as America's pollsters have found, but it is worth watching five hot spots to see if and how President Donald Trump could hurt New Zealanders' finances. 

China's shadow banks - Donald Trump's central pitch for voters was to threaten a 45% tariff on Chinese imports and bring manufacturing jobs back to America. If he carries through on the threat, the manufacturing engine room at the centre of the Chinese economy would misfire or worse. 

That sort of economic shock would upend much of the growth momentum that has underpinned a massive increase in corporate debt, often issued by shadowy pseudo banks in China to property developers and factory owners. Much of that debt is already stressed and was worrying the likes of the IMF and ratings agencies before Trump's election. 

A sharp rise in interest rates or a slowdown in exports could topple this pile of debt back onto China's state-owned banks, forcing time-consuming restructuring that would stop China's construction-heavy economic growth in its tracks. It may not prove as fatal for China as America's housing bust during the Global Financial Crisis, but it would put a big spanner in the works. 

Slower Chinese economic growth and financial stress may slow or reverse the stunning growth in demand for New Zealand's tourism, dairy and education exports over the last decade. 

China's currency - Donald Trump also pledged to label China as a currency manipulator, which could trigger various trade sanctions and unleash a tit-for-tat trade war that New Zealand may have to choose to take sides on. We currently have a trade deal with China, but our last remaining hope for one with America (TPPA) was flushed down the dunny on Wednesday night.

Economic stress in China and in its relationship with America is often reflected in a fall in China's yuan against the US dollar and other currencies. That makes China nervous because of the risk that Chinese people worried about more devaluation will try to pull their money out to put it into less risky assets such as property in the likes of Sydney, Vancouver, London and Auckland. A big drop in the yuan could force China to introduce capital controls. Big currency movements and controls would disrupt trade and people movements, particularly between New Zealand and China.

European banks - Unlike in 2008 when it was American banks that were falling over left, right and centre because their piles of junk bonds collapsed under the US housing bust, this time it is European banks that are stressed. Many worry in particular about Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche, and how it and others would deal with another period of global financial stress. 

Elections in Italy in December, France in May and Germany in October could easily upset the fragile consensus in Europe about keeping the euro and the European Union, given it has plenty of populist politicians wanting to copy Trump's playbook. Another euro crisis would put the blowtorch to the belly of Europe's most vulnerable banks. That in turn would roil financial markets and make it more expensive and difficult for New Zealand's banks to roll over the funding they need to back the mortgages they have lent in New Zealand. That may put upward pressure on mortgage rates here, as has happened to longer fixed rates in recent months.

US interest rates - The biggest move on financial markets on Wednesday night was a 0.2% rise in 10 year US Treasury bond yields to an 11 month high of 2.07%. That's because bond investors fear President Trump would carry out his election promises to slash corporate and income taxes while massively increasing Government spending on infrastructure. That combination is a recipe for US budget deficit blowouts that may rekindle inflation and increase interest rates. 

Trump has also suggested he would renegotiate US Treasury debt, just as he renegotiated the junk bonds on his casino. If he did this, it would trigger a financial armageddon because US Treasury bonds form the foundation of the global financial markets and banking systems. Treasury yields or interest rates also form the basis of mortgage rates globally, so rising US Treasury yields would also put upward pressure on longer term mortgage rates here.

Japan's nuclear ambitions - One of Trump's more incendiary suggestions during the campaign was to say Japan could develop nuclear weapons to help defend itself and reduce America's global defence burden. That would make China very nervous and rachet up tensions in an already tense part of the world that includes North Korea and South Korea. Trump has also hinted that South Korea could go nuclear, which would aggravate an unstable and nuclear-armed North Korea.

None of these diplomatic and military tensions would be good for the very integrated North Asian economy, which is now a far bigger driver of the Australian and New Zealand economies than anything happening in Europe and the United States.

In summary, If Trump carried out his various trade and defence threats, New Zealanders would face the risk of slower global economic growth, higher interest rates and fewer capital flows into our housing market and the rest of the economy. The other wild card is if New Zealand becomes the ultimate safe haven from Trump and all the trouble he creates. That assumes, of course, that any Government wanting Winston Peters' support could open up the migration gates to welcome in the world's worried masses.


A version of this article also appears in the Herald on Sunday. It is here with permission.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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122 Comments

These things may happen as you predict but they may also, not happen as you predict.
Things change.

@ Uninterested , you are right , things change , so lets stop being politically correct and call a spade a spade.

China manages its currency , the Yuan is not free floating , and China actively manipulates the currency on a daily basis . Its sets its exchange rate arbitrarily to suit itself , and its not freely tradeable .

It single-handedly accounts for 23% of world GDP , and massive chunk of world trade and is the elephant in the room .

It is a currency manipulator , plain and simple .

China is also one of the least democratic places on earth , it responsible for gross human rights abuses , and does not allow freedom of expression , restricts freedom of association , "cracks" down on religions with alarming regularity , it tells porkies about its % growth and a host of other statistics , and is run by people who are frankly not very nice

You are right , things change , the sooner the better , and we will live with the consequences .

Are increasing interest rates a problem? I heard the view that recently that the benefit to our savers would be big, and cost to borrowers only small. So overall good for us. Your thoughts?

I think the cost to borrowers might be greater than you think. On a $1M mortgage an extra 1% per year would be an extra $10,000 per year they would have to find ($200 per week). Many are predicting a rise in interest rates in the US in December and some are predicting 2 more in 2017. It would be naive to think that these interest rate rises will not have an effect on New Zealand interest rates.

Remember savers BadRobot. Or is that a word not in your vocab. Let me explain. If they had a $1M deposit an extra 1% would get them $200 per week. Magic.
If NZ had more savers than borrowers, we would be better off.

I was looking at the borrowers side of the equation as generally that is the side with the most risk with interest rate rises ( I have significant savings and very little debt).

Are increasing interest rates a problem?
Not for savers they are not.
They also give the incentive to save rather than borrow.
I think we need higher interest rates, simply because we are borrowing too much and saving too little.
All that lower and lower interest rates have done is push up asset prices.

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spoke to a lot of americans last week - who all reflected that the european and NZ media were in no way reflective of mainstream America - and that Trump had big support across the country - and this was before the vote - - since then nothing has changed - we are hearing about a few small riots - a KKK march of about 50 people and very little about the fact he will have gained over 300 votes - won in the vast majority of states- and is now making very realistic policy statements especially in his most radical areas - how about some more balanced reporting - try 5 ways this could actually work very well for NZ ?

after all we are aren't we wanting an increase to current levels of inflation?
he is likely to hurt the dairy industry in America and push our prices up -
a devaluing of the Yuan will make imported goods cheaper
a trade war between the two heavyweights may be chaos - but will provide lots of opportunity for us to fill the gaps
tighter currency controls would keep Chinese money away from the Auckland property market -

Also on TPPA - i recall reading a huge amount of protest material on this site - and in the country - so why are those people not now celebrating .....

i am not actually a supporter of Trump - but surely after Brexit and Trump, the media would have woken up to the fact that the majority of people are fed up with the political system and are now prepared to take a stand - regardless of the consequences - in order to get change

Time to try some proper journalism for a change - investigate and present both sides of the equation

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Investigative unbiased journalism is missing in NZ.

"Trump had big support across the country" - in fact you could say he had huge support.

On the other hand Clinton received more popular votes than did Trump, and (to a large extent) the House of Representatives is substantially Republican due to gerrymandering of congressional districts at state level.

So to take the results of the election as a mandate for change should perhaps be undertaken with a degree of humility and prudence. The big support wasn't all that big.

I also believe that the participation rate was only @ 56% - 44% didn't vote for what ever reason.

Some of the people who are now complaining about the outcome wouldn't have voted! They may have believed the polls.

True - not voting is in effect voting for the "winner" but it also shows the complacency and apathy on the voters part.

Trump has essentially got the support of around 70% of the people. I am being serious here too. A lot of people are comfortable with whoever is chosen and don't feel a need to vote.

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Inreresting challenging times ahead.

World over people in power should understand that what happened in Brexit and USA cannot be seen in isolation. They cannot be arrogant in today's time but have listen to the voice of the people - definetly in NZ their is a disconnect which will show in the election.

China's currency - Donald Trump also pledged to label China as a currency manipulator, which could trigger various trade sanctions and unleash a tit-for-tat trade war that New Zealand may have to choose to take sides on.

Wait haven't we already chosen a side i.e; Asia. We're massively dependant on China for business relations and for the US, well probably not much going on there between NZ and US business relations apart form exports.

Clinton also vowed to scrap the TPP

Any hope that we may have had that he is going to look out for anybody other than himself is looking pretty thin after he appointed his family in so many positions around him. That is the sort of thing Putin would do, so the mutual admiration makes sense doesn't it. If he disappoints the people that put him in power too much, hopefully, next election, America can find and elect somebody worthy of the position, unite behind them and some good may come from it all. 4 years though. A lot could go wrong in the meantime. They could end up having a second American civil war and break up like Russia. Still we should not get too far ahead of ourselves and hope that he surprises us all.

There is a prediction that Trump will be impeached within 6 months.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-pro...

EDIT:
The next test so to speak will be the mid-term elections in 2018.

I'm okay with this. A big appeal of Trumpism and Nationalism is that seeks to look after the whole family. I think we should send a delegation to the White House when Trump takes office to suggest that we reconsider the idea of the Anglosphere, a federation of anglophone countries that primarily help each other. The framework is already in place in the form of Five Eyes
.

Zachary,

"seeks to look after the whole family". Do you really believe that Trump will do that? It seems perfectly obvious to me that he will pander to special interests(as would Clinton also have done). In his case,it will be the fossil fuel industry,the very wealthy who will be the major recipients of the tax cuts,the anti science brigade-especially the climate change deniers(climate change is all a Chinese plot!!),the anti abortion lobby and a few others I can think of.
The 'little people' whose anger and diillusion put him in the White House are going to be bitterly disappointed with what they get.

So far I am feeling confident about Trump doing largely what he promised. The meeting with Farage and the commitment to mend things with the Russians and work with them against ISIS in Syria are not pandering sorts of things. Let's reassess in a year or two. You can't just say, "the little people will be bitterly disappointed". You could equally say, "the little people will be very satisfied", with just as much conviction. I find Kiwis to be a cynical lot on the whole which isn't very attractive.

I always found it arrogant, and ignorant, of past all black coaches presuming they knew if a player could step up to the All Black level....
Part of what I love about Steve Hansen is that he gives a player every chance of proving himself at the highest level.. ( More than that... the environment Hansen has set up offers every chance to succeed )

I have witnessed a previous All Black coach give a player only 10 mins in a losing game to prove himself,...and then afterwards say that he knew the player was not capable at the highest level...
( John Hart with Norm Berryman )

Why are we , even before kickoff, looking for the slightest reason, to say that Trump is not capable, that he is unfit to lead, that he is like Putin..

Chris -M.... Do u know more than me..??? I have absolutely NO idea as to why he chose his kids to sit around the table.... Why malign him, based on that..?

If I had to guess.... Maybe he trusts them.... Maybe they know Trumps vision, Maybe he feels he has few friends within the republican establishment.... ( I have no idea... as u can see. )

It would be pretty tough when/if one cant trust ones own team..??? ( Trump and the Republican establishment )

Ivanka, Donald Jr and Eric Trump, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law are all on the transitional team. Infact Peter Thiel is the only member who is not one of his family. That doesn't strike you as just a bit nepotistic? One has to presume that they are being paid for by public money. If somebody who is aspiring to lead a country has no body else that they trust, then they are in trouble, and so is the USA.
Re Steve Hansen giving players every opportunity to prove them selves at the highest level, we are talking about players who have already proven themselves worthy of the opportunity, not just Steve Hansen's friends and relations.
Remember the fuss when Key shoulder tapped an acquaintance to lead the SIS. Imagine the uproar if he did what Trump has just done.

sure ...him choosing his children has me asking questions ...
Nepotism ..??? Being part of a transition committee is hardly jobs for the boys....spoils of war..etc...etc.

I believe there are more non family than Peter Thiel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_transition_of_Donald_Trump

Again...Do u know something about him choosing his kids that i don't know..??? because you are inferring things based on that..

Does he have no one else he can trust..?? That seems so improbable... why even say it.??

Sorry Roelof, I stand corrected there are more than just Peter Thiel as non family members.
I still think that it is a pretty nepotistic thing to do and not what you would expect from a good leader. He is not running his family business, he should appreciate the difference. Clearly he doesn't and that is a worry.

Don't mince words there Chris-M, it is totally nepotistic. However I am with Roelof in that I don't see it as a problem. Not yet anyway. Better the modestly competent you can trust to deliver, than the person that looks good on paper but turns out making themselves look good on paper is their only good attribute. Too soon to tell if Trump is as good at getting people to perform for him politically as he does with his business. Would it not be a nice thought that he can?

Crickey this is the second time today I agree with scarfie. (The Trump effect really is bringing us together. You can't deny that the comments lately have all been thoughtful).It is too soon to tell and people willing to actively work with the team are not exactly thick on the ground. Americans can apply here if they wish to lend a hand:

https://www.greatagain.gov/serve-america.html

They're keen to get enthusiastic and hard working helpers on the team.

Don't make the mistake a lot of people here do of marking me as left wing. Personally I don't find the partisan nature of such labels useful. You could say both are steeped in part truths designed to mislead. Your time on this site probably post dates comments I have madet that I have no affinity for politics, or politicians. They play the part of the court jester, performers that are only useful for entertainment for the masses. Democracy is an illusion. Having said that, I have no problem with Trump, and could take plenty of issue with Clinton. Trump is a businessman, and what I like about business people is that instead of talking about things they make them happen.

What I stand for above all else is the principle that it is immoral for one person to take advantage of another. From my angle most political views simply have a bias for their own form of unearned income over the version of the other side/s.

very well put

Your last paragraph would define you as a Libertarian.

Unearned wealth is the very best and most sought after wealth. Try to get your hands on the so called unearned wealth and you are likely to experience what Alex in Clockwork Orange referred to as a bit of the old ultra-violence. And that would likely be inflicted by the forces of law and order. That is how important it is.
Once a year you can attend an ANZAC Day service and celebrate this.

His family may be very competent and honest, but in his position, it is totally unethical to appoint them to any public position as he has.

All the Trumps that now have roles in the Presidential Transition Team worked on the campaign. It's not like they were unemployed drunken bums before their appointments. It's also not like they are being given roles such as Secretary of Defense or something. You are making far too much of a big deal of this and I somewhat suspect an ulterior motive on your part for doing that. You have just repeated your concern four times in this thread without really adding anything further.

Trump has done stuff that at first seemed counterproductive, even sure to fail some said, yet he always came through. Time will tell. My feeling is that this has something to do with winning young people over to the movement. Analyse of voting demographics revealed that if only young people had voted Hillary would have won in a landslide. Appointing likable young people that he has cultivated might be a way of showing them that he has them in his thoughts. People often complain that people who make decisions are too old, too male or too stale. Now he needs to get the media to make them into celebrities.
Let's see if this works out as another moment of genius.

Com'on Roelof; Surrounding oneself with family in power is what North Korean leaders do, you see nothing wrong with this ??? really ???

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When will we see a "5 ways Trump could be good for us" article? Is this site left leaning or just simply biased?

@TrumpfromTaupo: Not likely, Since most of the educated world hates him and with good reasons.

Judging from your previous posts @ClintonJagoff, you are very clearly anti Trump. Note how I ask for something refreshing - you need not apply.

Now now, everyone is allowed to voice their opinion in a civilised fashion and I will continue to do so without being heckled by you!

There are plenty of people out there who are very unhappy with Trumps views, and lets face it's mostly the uneducated who voted for him in the hope that they would get their old jobs back (Most of has been displaced by globalisation and technology).

That's just not true. Plenty of college educated Americans voted for Trump. It's a certainty that there will be people better educated than you and I who voted for Trump. To think otherwise is just arrogant and dumb really. Like him or not - I doubt Americans were motivated by racism or lack of education to vote for Trump.

They voted against the status quo. Trump was just in the right place at the rightime time with an appropriate message.

By "educated", do you mean what people learn from the main stream media?

No I'm referring to those who have actually been through a higher level of education, hopefully beyond just a high school grade.

Time to remember the quote : Do not let schooling interfere with your education.

It only takes an IQ of 120 to get a degree, 125 to get a masters, and 125-130 to get a PhD. Sure better than average but educated isn't a replacement for smart. The smart people don't involve themselves with politics because the are clever enough to know that average people, including the educated, outweight them.

Umm.. Did you read that on a coffee cup some where. Wondering whether that quote will get you through your next interview.

Most recruiters value experience over education. It is a common complaint of the educated.

While that has a grain of truth - there are some situations I find where having a qualification (issued by a university / polytechnic or industry certification ) is advantageous - try getting somewhere in the computer world without an industry certification. It has the advantage that you have to cover areas / topics you many not find personally interesting but really do need to understand how things work and fix things (I'm speaking about the computer industry here specifically).

That is your second major fallacy in this comment stream. For someone that infers of themself as educated you are acting in quite a contrary manner, and really quite successfully highlight my point.

Getting a degree from a good university proves that you have critical thinking skills.

Im pretty sure you dont need a degree to prove you have critical thinking skills.

Tough

It may surprise you that 20% of the world's population fall into your "educated" category while 80% are not "educated" in the sense you mean. The 80% are not "uneducated", they're just ordinary, but they are the majority

That of course means that your "educated" are the minority - and they have to live with that

Can someone provide good information on what the benefits to NZ will be of a Trump presidency (instead of complaining about the content of this article provide a rebuttal).

No BadRobot, nobody can

It's not a product of 'left leaning' politics. It is a product rather of myopic , brain washed, 'follow the leader' journalism.
I have a good American friend, she is a feminist (not militant) and a true Democrat through and through. She dislikes Trump. But she also thinks he is a 'moderate' (and that his bark - his rhetoric - is worse than his bite)

It is not about Trump or brexit but is about people'd disconnect with current political establishment.

inequality and denying and manipulation of immigrant, housing crisis adds fuel to fire.

I believe it is about loss of status and privilege. Contrary to what the powers that be would have you believe these things are not bad but are in fact very, very good, if you have them. Believe me, you don't want to lose them. The great thing about the Western world was that more people than ever before felt privileged.
This is closely associated with "identity". All politics is identity politics when it comes down to the nitty gritty.

How correct, when John key says that data proves that overseas buyer is only 3% by manipulating the defination of the word ' non resident/foreigners' is annoying and it is this lie and manipulation which leads to a chain reaction resulting in anti government feeling as it is rubbing salt to the wound of average kiwi.

Ask any property agent or any experts and will vouch as is no hidden secret and this type of blatant lies by people whom we voted is just unacceptable.

It is arrogance and I, me, myself attitude of the politicians who doubts intelligence of average people is giving rise to trumps.

Only people who are benefitted by such lies and manipulation will support .

Economic stress in China and in its relationship with America is often reflected in a fall in China's yuan against the US dollar and other currencies. That makes China nervous because of the risk that Chinese people worried about more devaluation will try to pull their money out to put it into less risky assets such as property in the likes of Sydney, Vancouver, London and Auckland.

One would have think twice if this trading trend develops legs.

Meanwhile, EM and higher-yielding currencies were under intense selling pressure – the Brazilian real, South African rand, Turkish lira, Colombian peso, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar (to name a few) Read more

New Zealand's status as a carry currency nation together with other dubious associated outfits doesn't bode well for future inward investment. View table

New Zealand's status as a carry currency nation together with other dubious associated outfits doesn't bode well for future inward investment. View table

That table suggests to me that NZ may be the next place to expect good carry trade profits.... and Russia the least... ( call me contrarian )

It's a trade gone wrong since last Monday, given 3mth Llibor priced at 90 bps subtracts from 208 bps earned from 3mth NZ bank bills in the carry calculation.

we prefer overweighting countries with the Queen’s head on the bank note
(and as a Frenchman, it really hurts to say this!)

President Trump and the Fall of Davos Man

“We the people” are in the process of taking back their sovereignties, and are serving notice to the
technocrats that they are fired. First Brexit, now Trump, next Italy, probably to be followed in due course
by the Netherlands and France.
The problem is that the recovery of these sovereignties will necessarily lead to the destruction of the false
sovereign structures, let’s call them the usurper sovereignties, put in place by the Davos men in their
attempts to create a new world order.
Nowhere has this usurpation gone further than in euro-land. So, when an old and proud European nation
such as Italy, France, the Netherlands or Germany decides to recover its sovereignty in order to manage
its future democratically once again, it will inevitably mean the destruction of that financial Frankenstein’s
monster, the euro.

Mauldin is a bit of a muddler, but Charles and Loius Gave are not.
http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/OTB_Nov_09_2016.pdf

... awesome articles , Roger .. thanks for that ...

We've seen the same thing in my second home ( Philippines ) , with a crushing of the elite's power by new President Duterte ...

... and I agree about the disaster that is the artificial currency , the Euro ... I'd prefer to keep my assets in any country who has the Queen's head on it's banknotes ... provided it has recently been separated from her body ...

Thanks for the encouragement. The links that other people post are one of the best things about this site, so I try to return the favour if I can. I particularly like people who look at things a little differently, rather than the dull repetition of failed arguments that seems to serve as political discussion these days.

Looking through that list of risks, the world is in a real mess and there are a whole bunch of issues that the authorities are not addressing.
- China's economy is not real or sustainable and while boosting our exports, it is also exporting it's problems all over the world.
- The whole Eurozone thing is out of control and unsustainable and may well fall apart unless some significant changes are made. Ditching the common currency and freedom to migrate not the least of them.
- The economic template that is being used to manage most of the western world doesn't seem to be working and is serving only the very wealthy. This is not sustainable either.

So it is long past the time that we started lancing a few boils, but to have all this lot come crashing down at once doesn't bare thinking about. We need some cool heads who can prioritise our actions and adequately address these issues in a planed manner while minimising the inevitable fall out. Is Trump the person to play a constructive part in this??????
-

Why are we still talking about President Trump, when he's already sidelined now that there are no crowds to be whipped up at rallies, and it has been repeatedly stated by him and others that Pence is going to be in charge of actually running things, foreign and domestic policy, and appointing the transition team?

What's the effect of President Pence going to be?

Trump and the political processes going on around the world are just a sign of the end of growth. All these things that might happen because of trump most likely will happen without him anyway.

So what was Clinton going to do apart from war with Russia? Same old policies from Obama?

They have eaten their future with debt the only way to continue the lifestyle they want is to eat other peoples futures. Their intention was regime change in countries that have little debt so they can feast a little bit longer.

True - you just don't know who is right - and that is the problem. The world just has to wait and see what happens ....

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My very last posting. Something for you ALL (including those running this site) to think about brought to you via a comedian.

Best of luck all of you. Justice signing off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLG9g7BcjKs

Thanks Justice. Excellent piece. Sorry you've left the building.
The irony here is of course, Trump has ripped down the walls around PC behaviour. He says what he wants and doesn't apply the filters that most of us have been conditioned to use in recent years.
The snowflakes who are still in denial may never get it and they get confused when mistaking robust debate for racism, xenophobia, sexism or any 'ism' you can think of.
Elections throughout Europe next year will extend the anti-establishment, anti-Globalisation movement. We'd better start getting used to it.

Yes , many snowflakes will be confused but we shouldn't underestimate the extent to which other NZrs hold well developed but 'non approved' views that are contrary to the prevailing narrative, on topical issues.
Take immigration for example where the politically correct line is that a high rate is, intrinsically, a good thing. Economic and demographic justifications are advanced in support, usually rounded out with an exhortation that more 'diversity' is just what we need. Enriches the tapestry of our lives etc. We should just trust the Wellington policy wonks to decide what is good for us.
Scratch a bit deeper however and it's soon apparent that outside the beltway there is considerable unease about the speed with which the ethnic and cultural profile of our country is being irrevocably altered.
But as per recent events in the US, these views must be suppressed to avoid social ostracisation as a racist. One would never confess to a polster or anyone outside your closest mates that you have reservations. Admitting you are considering voting for Peters is in most places outside of gold card land, inviting derision.
Sound familiar ?

That was good. "Being offended doesn't work anymore", that's damn right, we even draw energy from it now. "Basket of deplorables" was like giving your foe an atomic weapon.

And yet the chap doesn't actually admit they might be ... wrong. That their ideas don't work. That the opposition might deserve to win. Bill English said it took National about five years to finally admit they deserved to be defeated when they lost office to dear Auntie Helen. Labour still seem to be denying that they deserved to be kicked out.

Can I be forward enough to suggest you wind you head in and carry on :-P I have seen your reasoning that has lead you to your decision, but I urge you to consider the bigger picture. I value your contributions as one of the more rational minds here, and despite some shortcomings where else would you go? Facebook? I know Iain Parker still bangs on there relentlessly. Lol.

We both have to suffer the logical that think they are rational, but that is just a fact of life we have to fight wherever we go. Just use your discernment to better judge the difference between those qualities in those you respond to.

I never thought I would write this but I agree with scarfie. If you had your own web site you yourself would need to censor to stay on message. I was getting the impression that many commenters were starting to converge with their views and the Trump phenomenon was quite a catalyst for this. From the beginning my theory was that people were being led down the wrong path but their hearts were in the right place. The official right was a sham like the Bushes. The left was the wrong way but a new right path could be the answer. Hopefully that will get past the censors!

... agree with the guys , even though that was a satirical piece by " Jonathon Pie " , it spoke a mountain of truth ...

So , you're heading off ... any reason why there is no Justice in this world ?

... I took a year off ... bored with the constant yap about Auckland house prices ... and bored with Bernard's incessant negativity ... I had hoped that the crisper winds blowing around Wellingtron would have cleared the melon somewhat , but I guess , once a hickeysterical gloomsteriser , always one ... our Chicken Little , Bernie ...

As TimfromTaupo says , we could just as easily write up a piece on 5 ways that a Trump presidency will be good for us ....

... or 5 ways why we dodged the bullet , thank goodness the Clinton's are not back in the White House ... Trump did us all the biggest favour possible there !

Always sad to see someone going. Maybe an Interest-free period (a detox, if you will) will help. I did it for a while last year, and then got back to reading every day.

Great link by the way. I think Pie's absolutely on point, that if you push people into a corner, they do lash out. One of the big arguments in China against giving people the general vote is that they're thought to be too stupid and ill-educated to know what to do with it. We're seeing something similar here; the idea that the unwashed scum of the earth voted for Trump, with a subtext that perhaps they didn't even deserve that vote, because it was the 'wrong' one...

One of the best links i have ever seen.
Thanks.

Just for the record, I'm looking forward to seeing more of Melania Trump as FLOTUS :)

I'd like to see more of Ivanka, a lot more.

Seriously though I have a theory that fundamentally this struggle is about beauty. The Right believes in beauty while the Left believe in equality. They are incompatible. Did people vote, subconsciously, for the more attractive candidate?
There is something ugly about Hillary that is more than skin deep. There are rumours of her being truly awful to the staff and the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Samatha Power said this when Hillary was competing against Obama,
She is a monster, too — that is off the record — she is stooping to anything... Link

Interesting comment re Hillary. I'm sure there are many voters out there who saw her as grasping and ruthless. Qualities that are unfairly viewed as negative in a woman but positive in men!
Agreed re Ivanka. Trump's family come across as smart, decent and well mannered.

Even Hillary spoke well of Trump's kids when asked to name something good about Trump!

Once again the tallest candidate won.

No surprises - this has worked for all past US Presidential elections.

... this process is working in reverse for chairmans of the US Federal Reserve ... Paul Volker is a seriously big unit , 6 ft 7 " ... after him , followed Alan Greenspan , who is is tall , but shorter than that ... thence followed cranky Bernie Bernanke , a very sub-6 footer , and finally , right now , the diminutive Janet Yellen ... 5 foot nothing in her UGG slippers ...

After Janet , the next Chairman will be a dwarf midget ... if the trend continues ...

There are nude photos available (don't know the links..... don't want to get into trouble)

I've got copies here. Will send them to David. He can forward on to you :)

It's too early to determine how the Trump presidency will unfold.

Here's a list of complications:

- Trump has been very cagey about what he stands for. Who knows what he pursue and what he won't.
- The GOP is currently divided and hence so is the Republican dominated House and Senate. There is even speculation of future attempts at Trump impeachment.
- Trump won't necessarily get all his radical ideas passed into legislation. There are always many self-interested forces at work, particularly in US decentralised politics.
-Trump doesn't have the absolute power of an old-world monarch, he will require a certain level of cooperation to make any progress.

The reality is he has very little room to move and if he slips up there are plenty of opponents from many different factions who will ensure at the very least he doesn't get a second term. Expect Democrats to vote in droves at the next election.

I have no doubt that there are millions of Americans who are not interested in the result.
All they want is the ability to put a roof over their head and put food on the table no matter who is in power.
To the protesters,get over it Trump won so head down and arse up finding a democrat for the next election.

Is this the worst possible outcome for NZ?

1. Chinese banks - if they are over leveraged, that is hardly Trumps fault.
2. China currency - a revaluation upwards means they can buy more NZ exports.
3. Europeans banking system - The euro is a failed experiment anyway, its just a matter of time, with or without Trump, if Trump's policies help the inevitable I don't really see what difference it makes, if anything better to get it over and done with than prolong the slow motion wreck the euro is.
4. Rising interest rates - this will happen anyway, they have been too low for too long, and asset prices have run up too far and too fast.
5. Japans nuclear ambition - it just also may make China and North Korea think twice about causing instability in that region.

In the end I think Hillary lost the election as much as Trump won it (if not more the former). All the Americans I know either didn't bother to vote or voted Trump as they just couldn't bring themselves in the end to vote Hillary. None of them liked either personality, but it wasn't a personality contest (as much as the media tried to make it one). Time will tell what will happen, but I hope Trump doesn't investigate Hillary and co until after Obama has left office, that way he cant pardon her. Then a full investigation into her dealings and corruption and the Clinton Foundation - if claims like every fraud under the sun and child sex trafficking etc are true then I hope Hillary gets everything coming to her.

Well, it wasn't a good choice was it?
Don't know who I would have voted for. Probably neither - a gun at my head, probably Trump. I like Sanders.
I feel a bit like Trump has conned a lot of people. Will he really turn things around for the strugglers in the rust belt?

... agreed ... both Hillary and Donald were equally appalling as the only two viable choices available ...

So , chuck your serious side out the window , and ask yourself : " Which of these two is more entertaining , who is more funny , who is more likely to screw up big time and to implode into a hilarious ball of flames ? " ...

... Trump ! ... easy peasy , when you look at it from an angle of sheer unmitigated crazy ...

agree...at least Don is entertaining!

..who is more likely to screw up big time and to implode into a hilarious ball of flames ?

I would honestly say Hillary after seeing what happened with the Weiner/Huma comedy act.

Might have played out different if Joe Biden had run instead. This made me laugh.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/86404054/best-of-the-bromance-joe-...

I think Trump will be just fine for New Zealand..,,and maybe even America.

Not to be crude about it, he will oil the wheels of commerce., enable people to go on about their daily work...take more in taxes without you even knowing it, maybe even allow people to run a gas guzzler, they bought on a whim and a prayer.
Maybe even draw a line in the sand...and mark a point of little returns, if you upset him after this.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=CL

Trump's economic threat is unimportant. What we should be worried about is that he is the head of the most powerful military might in the world and he shares very similar ideologies to Adolf Hitler, namely, Nationalist, xenophobe and divisive

You're just taking cheap shots with stupid comparisons and ridiculous accusations.

Eyes on the wrong ball, guys. Stop being distracted by the loud showman and look at the man behind the curtain. Trump's irrelevant. He's said himself that he can't really be bothered with actually doing the job and that he intends to pass it all on to Pence. Foreign policy, domestic policy, appointment of people to the positions and all. Look at Pence's record. Look at the people who are being shoulder-tapped for the positions. Is an extremist theocrat with a terrible record on civil and human rights really something you're comfortable with?

So Trump may burst the bubble? But you can't blame him for creating it. So we are finally admitting there is a bubble?

Who is the first "foreign" politician Trump meets with?
Nigel Farage that's who! A two hour meeting - what a legend.

Nigel Farage discusses 'freedom and winning' in meeting with Trump

A lurch to the right.
No prob.
Did you really expect him to invite Mother Teresa over for a cup of tea.
Times have changed.

Can now Focus on ISIS.....

Okay , so the Fed has said its going to put up interest rates , and will start "tightening " in due course .

This has been indicated for the past 2 years , at least .

There will be some capital flight as money finds it way back to the US , and this will make money more expensive , including mortgages right here .

You cannot even begin to suggest that one man can single-handedly cause this, its farcical .

Where did you get that from?

You can't possibly believe that, unless you heard it directly from Yellen with your own shell-pink ears

These days you can't believe anything on the internet or social media or even Main Stream Media

Back in the day, Ben Bernanke kept promising to raise rates as soon as unemployment got below 7% or was it 6.5%, but come the day it never happened. Maybe it was just a rumour. Unemployment is now 4.9% Maybe Janet doesn't believe it

Dear Bernard, yr amnesia playing up again? 'Tis not only US pollster's folly! I recall reprimanding thee here not two weeks ago for yr presumptuous disposal of President Trumpy.

I remember you doing that.

No one has a clue how this will play out. And it's absolutely ridiculous to write a list of entirely negative speculated possibilities without at least also writing a list of entirely positive speculated possibilities.

Trump could be good, he could be bad, he could even turn out to be as much of a custodian of the status quo as every other politician of the last 20 years. He could fail to do anything different or extreme at all, how disappointed would every one be then?

I am also sick of the perpetual references and positioning of ideas or people, as left or right. There is no such thing anymore. No clear reds or blues, left or right wing. Using a political spectrum to describe any modern party or politician is useless. Nothing is that clear cut anymore.

I for one am calling all bets off. I haven't a clue how Trump will effect NZ, or even how he will effect the US. I don't know how Brexit will effect the UK. I suspect the EU's days are numbered, but who knows, they may surprise us. And as for China? Bloody hell. No. Not a clue. Anything could happen.

It is a struggle between the noble and the ignoble, between beauty and ugliness.

There is one thing that you have to smile about with Trump. For all his mouthing off and bigotry, he has just won the greatest learning experience of his life. Hopefully he will be a very changed and more likeable man by the end of all this.

Trump is not bigoted, he is just not particularly diplomatic which means he is not weaselly like the others, all trying to outdo each other in appearing to be the latest Mother Teresa.
Anti Trumpsters just aren't learning the lesson. If you are going to call someone a bigot for wanting to expel criminal invaders then the term bigot doesn't have the same meaning anymore. It has no power anymore. This is why the term 'deplorable' is now worn as a badge of honour.

How about these quotes then:
“You know, it really doesn’t matter what the media write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.”
“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending the best. They’re not sending you, they’re sending people that have lots of problems and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. … And some, I assume, are good people.”
“Our leaders are stupid. They are stupid people. It’s just very, very sad.”
“Laziness is a trait in the blacks. … Black guys counting my money! I hate it.”
“The only kind of people I want counting my money are little short guys that wear yamakas every day.”
“Angelina Jolie is sort of amazing because everyone thinks she’s like this great beauty. And I’m not saying she’s an unattractive woman, but she’s not a beauty, by any stretch of the imagination. I really understand beauty.”
Bette Midler is “grotesque.”
If I were running ‘The View,’ I’d fire Rosie [O’Donnell]. I mean, I’d look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers, I’d say, ‘Rosie, you’re fired.’”
“Rosie O’Donnell’s disgusting both inside and out. You take a look at her, she’s a slob. She talks like a truck driver, she doesn’t have her facts, she’ll say anything that comes to her mind.”
“All the women on The Apprentice flirted with me — consciously or unconsciously. That’s to be expected.”
“Our great African American President hasn’t exactly had a positive impact on the thugs who are so happily and openly destroying Baltimore!”
“I want a very good-looking guy to play me.”
“I’ve known Paris Hilton from the time she’s 12. Her parents are friends of mine, and, you know, the first time I saw her, she walked into the room and I said, ‘Who the hell is that?’ … Well, at 12, I wasn’t interested. I’ve never been into that. They’re sort of always stuck around that 25 category.”
“[Arianna Huffington] is unattractive both inside and out. I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man- he made a good decision.”
Arianna Huffington is “a dog.”
I have a great relationship with the blacks. I’ve always had a great relationship with the blacks.”
“Jeb Bush has to like the Mexican Illegals because of his wife.”
“I’m leading in the Hispanic vote, and I’m going to win the Hispanic vote. I’m also leading in the regular vote.”
“I don’t have a racist bone in my body.”
“I’ve never had any trouble in bed…”
“I think she’s a terrible person. I can look at people and see what they are.”
“She’s not giving me 100 percent. She’s giving me 84 percent, and 16 percent is going towards taking care of children.” “When a man leaves a woman, especially when it was perceived that he has left for a piece of ass — a good one! — there are 50 percent of the population who will love the woman who was left.” “You know who’s one of the great beauties of the world, according to everybody? And I helped create her. Ivanka. My daughter, Ivanka. She’s 6 feet tall, she’s got the best body. She made a lot money as a model — a tremendous amount.” “Every guy in the country wants to go out with my daughter.” “… she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.”
On women: “You have to treat ’em like shit.” “If Hillary Clinton can’t satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America?”
“Nothing wrong with ego.”
“Show me someone without an ego, and I’ll show you a loser.” “I think if this country gets any kinder or gentler, it’s literally going to cease to exist.”
“Part of the beauty of me is that I am very rich.”
“I think she’s a terrible person. I can look at people and see what they are.”
On Rick Santorum: “I have a big plane. He doesn’t.”

You can make political statements that challenge the politically correct crap without having to resort to his sort of language. Obama has presided over one of the largest expulsions of illegal immigrants with barely a harsh word.

politically correct crap

Yet you resort to this sort of language as well?
I don't have a problem with anything Trump said above. You have to take into account the context in which the statements are set. Other people might object but that's not my problem.

Boy, what I have missed after having been away for most of the last couple of weeks out of www. range, reading some of this stuff I just might go right back.
Have come to the conclusion that we now have white radicalized males in our midst. They can be recognized by the use of some of the following expressions and epithets
Libtard
Politically correct
Cup cakes
Loony left
Dykes
B*tt hurt
There are more, but I am sure you catch my drift
Many adhere to one, some or all of the popular conspiracy theories, be it climate change or holocaust denying, 9/11, the moon landing and chem trails. They have been radicalized by reading crazy blogs and state that what they read is the truth and what msm reports is left wing lies, ignoring that about all of msm is owned by right wingers.
Trump has unleashed some of the most terrible sentiments in the US and has done nothing to assuage people's real fears for their civil rights by those he is keeping near, Pence and Bannon and co. If Trump is not a racist, misogynist, homophobe in reality there is no way he would have gone anywhere near Bannon, as his views would totally counter Trump's so for my money, he is who he keeps company with.
Have spent the last few days since returning giving this whole thing a bit of thought and have come across this whole "Men going their own way" thing, and have concluded there are some seriously crazy people out there, would not have thought it till I saw it with my own eyes.
Yes, Trump may speak to the economic concerns of many, even I share some of them, but this will be temporary, the human race will continue forward, it always has, bar the odd hiccup like this and wars.
And to those of you thinking that this would be the end of these political dynasties, think you might want to check back later.

People with attitudes like yours have already brought about Brexit and President Trump. Thanks PocketAces!

Sorry, but it was the spectacularly, (how shall I say this to get past the moderator - oh I know), rhymes with Cupid of the USA that got Trump where he is.

Yes keep at it. I count you as one of my best allies in this struggle.

This is the sort of thing Trump has made okay
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/15/west-virginia-mayor-under-fir...
I hope you are really, really proud of this, some of you, you know who you are

And the dupes still haven't realised what happened. Trump's a complete irrelevancy, and they'll sideline him to get him out of the way ASAP so that the extremist ideologues, out-and-out crooks and dangerous theocrats can get on with ransacking the treasury and gutting services for all the complete fools who voted for the reality TV con-man because they want to suck the dick of anyone who panders to them and says he's rich. Trump's probably already curled up in a ball in his bedroom with no idea what to do. Maybe they'll stick him out in the desert by the border with a box of Lego and tell him to get on with it.

I can't see him lasting the distance, he's lining himself up for conflicts of interest with his businesses, with some of his appointments he is setting up the country for more unrest, check that Sessions guy and his idea of what sexual assault might or might not be, then there is Bannon. He is setting himself up for accusations of nepotism, and yes, I can see him ending up a jibbering idiot in a rubber room, once he realises he cannot handle the job.

I find it interesting that the competent professionals in intelligence and security are noping the hell away from this. It'd be career suicide for serious professionals to be associated with this mess, but god knows they need some adults in control.

Trump will never last the distance. All he's good for is spewing gibberish at rallies. Anything requiring complex analytical thought or attention to detail, or maturity, or sustained effort, and you may as well ask the cat to do it.