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Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
8th Apr 24, 9:18am
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Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing
Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
1st Apr 24, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data
Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
25th Mar 24, 8:17am
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Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic
Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
18th Mar 24, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the Fed will not be changing their view or stance due to recent oil price-induced increases in wholesale prices
Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
11th Mar 24, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks
Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
4th Mar 24, 8:51am
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Roger J Kerr says from past performances we all should have known that Governor Orr would take the opportunity to, yet again, wrong-foot the markets
Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
26th Feb 24, 8:08am
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Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
19th Feb 24, 8:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
12th Feb 24, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years
Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
5th Feb 24, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure
Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
29th Jan 24, 8:30am
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Roger J Kerr says the still-high level of inflation that has declined a bit isn't yet cause for celebration and the RBNZ needs to explore more options to get it lower. But he sees US inflation march lower even if their economic data remains mixed
Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
22nd Jan 24, 7:55am
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Roger J Kerr says weaker than expected inflation and jobs data in Australia has forced away any lingering expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (“RBA”) interest rate hikes
Veteran leftist Robert Reid says New Zealand’s at war with Yemen. Chris Trotter begs to differ
15th Jan 24, 8:08am
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Veteran leftist Robert Reid says New Zealand’s at war with Yemen. Chris Trotter begs to differ
Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
15th Jan 24, 7:46am
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Roger J Kerr says there is a strong argument that the New Zealand interest rate market is pricing in far too many cuts, far too early, from the current 5.50% OCR rate
Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
8th Jan 24, 8:51am
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Even though markets seem sure the US Fed Funds rate will need to fall as US inflation does - and that will make the USD weaker - Roger J Kerr warns managers to be aware of the risks to that weaker US dollar expectation
Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
18th Dec 23, 8:23am
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Roger J Kerr says it has just taken an extraordinary length of time for the Fed and the markets to conclude that interest rates did not need to go any higher and would need to come down in 2024 to avoid a recession
Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
11th Dec 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence from all the US economic data over the last month has to be that the risks have subsided, therefore the Fed have done enough with tight monetary policy to achieve their 2.00% inflation target
Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
4th Dec 23, 8:02am
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Roger J Kerr struggles to make sense of the Reserve Bank's latest 'stringent' message
Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
27th Nov 23, 8:52am
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Roger J Kerr says the fundamental premise of lower US inflation, equals lower US interest rates, equals a lower US dollar still holds as compelling today as it was in early 2023
Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
13th Nov 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the continuous switching by global investors between “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode over the course of the last year is reflected in the up-down-up pattern of the US equities Dow Jones Index
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
23rd Oct 23, 7:00am
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Roger J Kerr sees the US playing a very high-stakes 'game' that cannot last, raising the risks of an American recession. The USD is over-valued and until it comes down, American interest rates will stay high
Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
16th Oct 23, 8:37am
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Roger J Kerr says policy initiatives from the new Government should attract inwards capital and portfolio investors
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government