ASB's latest Housing Confidence Survey shows less than a quarter of people think it's a good time to buy a house

ASB's latest Housing Confidence Survey shows less than a quarter of people think it's a good time to buy a house
Photo: Scott Sturkol

There has been a slight increase in the number of people who think it is a good time to buy a house, according to ASB's Housing Confidence Survey.

In a survey carried out over the three months to the end of July with 2825 respondents, 23% thought it was a good time to buy a house, up from 19% in the three months from February to April.

Conversely 15% thought it was a bad time to buy, which was unchanged from the previous three months.

But the biggest group were those who didn't have strong feelings one way or the other, with 47% saying it was neither a good nor bad time to buy, down from 51%. The 15% who simply didn't know was unchanged from the previous three months.

So the only movement was a small shift in the number of people who moved from thinking it was neither a good nor bad time to buy to thinking it was a good time to buy.

There were bigger movements in the numbers who thought interest rates would go up or down.

The number who thought interest rates would rise dropped from 23% in the three months to April, to 17% in the three months to July, while those who thought they would fall increased from 13% to 27% over the same period.

The biggest group (30%) were those who thought interest rates would remain the same, down from 36%, while 26% didn't know (previously 28%).

The survey was completed shortly before the Reserve Bank made a surprisingly 50 basis points cut to the Official Cash Rate in early August and the housing market has largely been in the doldrums over winter.

ASB's next survey, which will be carried out over the three months to October, is likely to be more telling, because it will capture the mood post the OCR cut and people will have an idea of how much the housing market will have moved over spring, which is usually a busier time of year for the real estate industry.

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A breakdown by age would be instructive?
"Buy a house" is awfully vague. A first house and aged 27-35 would be more reflective of optimism?
And then broken down into Auckland and other?
This seems a v common error by researchers. Too generic

Definitely slowing property market: Metlifecare net profit falls 68% as property revaluations rise at slower rate
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=122...

The various indicators are progressively pointing to a firming of the housing market over the next 12 months or so.

TTP

Which indicators?

Yes Pointy which indicators.

Intangible ones, apparently.

"Straws in the wind" - as per Westpac.

frog entrails and bat poo?

You mean the indicator that is the RBNZ slashing the OCR by an unexpected amount to try and prop up the market?

RBNZ helpfully gives its reasoning behind every MPC decision. Propping up the housing market is not the reason. Not sure why people are so flippant about it. What other conspiracy theories are popular around here?

From August 2019: “The Reserve Bank has slashed its house price projections for the rest of this year and is clearly baffled as to why actual prices have turned out so much weaker than it expected.”
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101097/its-latest-monetary-policy-st...

That statement doesn't indicate weaker than expected house prices is the reason the RBNZ dropped the OCR. If inflation was running above 3% and the OCR was cut in the face of weak house prices you might have a good conspiracy theory. That's not the case.

What they are required to do is keep inflation in the satisfactory zone (in this case make it higher than it is) and help keep unemployment as low as possible. It’s not conspiracy to put two and two together to realise that if the property market continues to decline it will severely impact the economy and therefore unemployment (especially the large construction industry), so they would not want that to happen. Hence their concern about to market being surprisingly weak. In any case, I’m not saying it’s the only reason for the rate cuts, but surely a big factor. Same with the RBA in Australia. The construction industry is a big employer in both countries.

What they are required to do is keep inflation in the satisfactory zone (in this case make it higher than it is) and help keep unemployment as low as possible. It’s not conspiracy to put two and two together to realise that if the property market continues to decline it will severely impact the economy and therefore unemployment (especially the large construction industry), so they would not want that to happen. Hence their concern about to market being surprisingly weak. In any case, I’m not saying it’s the only reason for the rate cuts, but surely a big factor. Same with the RBA in Australia. The construction industry is a big employer in both countries.

Nicely expressed. IMHO (of which I don't necessarily think I'm right), asset deflation is a major threat to the NZ economy, particularly consumer spending. As seen globally, less consumer spending further negatively impacts consumer spending creating a perpetual downward spiral. The RBNZ will be aware of what I'm saying and should be considering it an important issue of concern.

Must be not less than 50%.

About 90 per cent of all Auckland property sales are now resulting in a profit for the seller – a level not seen for six years.
CoreLogic has released its latest Pain and Gain report, which shows that nationwide, 95.6 per cent of sales were for more than the seller had originally paid for the property.
That is down on 96.4 per cent the previous quarter.
But in Auckland, 91 per cent were for a profit, compared to 95 per cent a year earlier.

Great post, so the number of people on-selling their house for a profit is down…. to 95% NZ wide and 91% in Auckland.
DGM, "see it's going down"
Reasonable person "It's amazing that over 90% sell at a profit"

Almost guaranteed profit as well as a home for the period of ownership. And without the constant sometimes daily gyrations.

Is it so difficult to understand that the people you call DGMs aren't arguing the fact that buying a property many years ago was a good idea? What these so called 'DGMs' are saying is that prices aren't going to go up in the next few years, and in fact are likely to go down.

Is it so difficult to understand that the people you call DGMs aren't arguing the fact that buying a property many years ago was a good idea?

Right, but buying anything in an everything bubble is a good idea, as long as it doesn't bite you on the ass. The only things that the mainstream weren't buying in the everything bubble was gold, silver, and the associated miners.

Only a fool would not aim to own his own home. Even a snail is smarter than you are jester.

NO ONE HAS SAID THEY DON'T WANT TO OWN A HOME..... people are timing the market, not denying the long term benefits of home ownership

Are you in a Wellington gale right now gingerninja, hows the renovations?

Argumentum ad hominem. Why the personal attack? Why not argue with the thing I pointed out instead?

About 10 per cent of all Auckland property sales are now resulting in a loss for the seller – a level not seen for six years.
CoreLogic has released its latest Pain and Gain report, which shows that nationwide, 4.4 per cent of sales were for less than the seller had originally paid for the property.
That is up on 3.6 per cent the previous quarter.
But in Auckland, 9 per cent were for a loss, compared to 5 per cent a year earlier.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115226109/proportion-of-auckland-proper...

Thanks CN, who wouldn't want to invest their money with odds of over 90% of making a profit, it's just outstanding, truely stellar, all the while enjoying living in your "investment" absolutely unbeatable

Thanks CN, who wouldn't want to invest their money with odds of over 90% of making a profit, it's just outstanding, truely stellar, all the while enjoying living in your "investment" absolutely unbeatable

True. You can't live in equities, cash, or precious metals.

Does the 90% figure take into account inflation, costs of ownership, and costs of actually selling?

Pretty sure its just the selling prices they look at.

Which, if that's true, "90% chance of making a profit" is not very accurate. I'm guessing it's still high, but not that high.