Auction rooms are busy but the sales rate is low

Property / news

Plenty of properties on offer at the latest auctions but just over a third selling under the hammer

17th Feb 24, 6:24am by Greg Ninness

It was full steam ahead in the residential property auction rooms over the last week, with the summer selling season now in full swing.

However the sales rate remains relatively low overall.

Interest.co.nz monitored the auctions of 449 properties over the week of 10-16 February, a decent jump up from 291 the previous week.

Of those, 167 properties sold under the hammer, up from 102 the previous week, which meant the sales rate was almost unchanged at 37% compared to 35% the previous week.

With high levels of housing stock available for sale, the auction rooms are likely to remain busy throughout February and March.

However with just a little more than a third of auctioned properties selling under the hammer, it appears the market remains relatively soft and buyers are being cautious over price.

This will lead to some tough post-auction negotiations as agents try to close the gap between the price vendors are prepared to accept and the price potential buyers are prepared to pay.

Details of all of the individual properties offered at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

Residential Auction Results
at auctions monitored by interest.co.nz
10-16 February 2024
District	Total	Sold	% Sold	% of selling prices above the property's rating valuation
Northland	33	12	36%	58%
Auckland Region	294	95	32%	37%
-Rodney	16	4	25%	33%
-North Shore	65	23	36%	55%
-Waitakere	24	10	42%	10%
-Central suburbs	91	31	34%	38%
-Manukau	63	21	33%	24%
-Papakura	14	4	29%	33%
-Franklin	20	1	5%	0
-Waiheke Island	1	1	100%	100%
Coromandel	2	0	0%	0%
Waikato	13	6	46%	50%
Bay of Plenty	24	9	38%	50%
Gisborne	26	14	54%	54%
Taupo	5	1	20%	0
Canterbury	50	28	56%	59%
Queenstown	1	1	100%	100%
Otago	1	1	100%	100%
All of Aotearoa	449	167	37%	45%

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60 Comments

by tothepoint | 17th Feb 24, 6:45am 1708105529

Noted that nearly one-half of properties nation-wide (45 percent) sold above their rating valuation.

Housing market awaits better clarity about the direction of mortgage interest rates. 🤔

TTP

by False economies | 17th Feb 24, 7:02am 1708106575

I'm not sure of the relevance of that statistic.

Isn't it skewed by when the last rating was done?

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 7:20am 1708107641

TTP, we all know that “% selling above RV” is not a metric we can use. RVs are all set at differing times around the country - some well over three years old, some absolutely current- so they do not represent a baseline to measure against.

I use Auckland to assess as it gives a good number sales ( in a stats sense) and all RVs were struck at the same time. So that’s 37% of those that were sold in Auckland got to their 2021 RV, but the bigger story is only 32% of properties on offer in the Auckland sample managed to sell (94 sold out of 294 offered). Nothing to crow about here and would be good to understand what happened in Franklin.

by easymoney | 17th Feb 24, 8:06am 1708110414

So what did happen in Franklin.

by agnostium | 17th Feb 24, 10:05am 1708117514

So just over 10% of the properties for sale sold at auction for over RV.

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 10:21am 1708118480

Yes that’s right, and IT Guy pointed out that at the time of the 2021 RVs being struck in Auckland, prices were already 15% above the brand new RVs. Am I correct with that IT Guy?

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 11:42am 1708123371

Developers where paying 13-18% above total CV to bare land in Glendowie to subdivide in the Sept-Nov 2021 period, about 4k per sq m, more for a corner site as can have two entrances and often higher density .

Valuation is always land per sq m plus improvements, if they intend to bowl house or sell as a relocatable they are really buying at land value.... land like that is now maybe worth 2.2k-2.6k now per sq m.

Sure CV is not a current market valuation but anyone who has been in property game knows it has a use.

Out where I now live OneWoof saying

Sales in this suburb over the last 12 months have averaged 6.68% above RV

but it's a game of two halves, smaller stuff going well below CV, bigger 4H plus selling well above. plenty still seem to have enough to pay 3-4mill then add a 200k horse truck onto property etc etc, mush is inherited...

by malamah | 17th Feb 24, 8:34am 1708112071

So overall, 16.67% selling above an irrelevant number. 83% selling below an irrelevant number or unable to sell at all.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 7:18am 1708107531

This will lead to some tough post-auction negotiations as agents try to close the gap between the price vendors are prepared to accept and the price potential buyers are prepared to pay.

RBNZ is starting to control the price the potential buyers CAN pay... what the vendor wants is reflected in the growing stockpile

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/number-of-2m-plus-home-loans-has-doubled…

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 7:22am 1708107734

Oh Oneroof, this is shameful!

by ChrisOfNoFame | 17th Feb 24, 10:21am 1708118475

Saddened by this bit:

“There was a blip in the market post-Covid, when prices went through the roof and interest rates were very low,” he [Keith McLaughlin, Centrix managing director] said. “People believed they could afford a $1m or $2m mortgage based on their income and outgoings. As a result there was a significant amount of heavy commitment.”

Note the narrative is always about the "people". It is always 'dumb people'. What about the lenders?

Never a mention of the fact that banks - supposed experts in finances, economics and economic history - have also made some pretty huge mistakes.

Ergo, the banks need to carry the losses too.

(Please spare me the argumentum ad odium responses that only serve to reinforce the views banks want you have so they get off scot free.)

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 10:35am 1708119349

Yes I find the whole thing sad as it is unwinding. Plenty of 2022 purchases here now back on the market - trying to get the same or a little higher than they paid, nobody wants them, it will all end in tears I think.

Watched an episode of “Country House Hunters, New Zealand” the other day where a nice couple from Wellington were looking at a set of pretty average builders houses on nice gardens in Martinborough ( 2022) with what we thought were very low specs asking prices north of $2.2 million. They bought one of them, will be worth very much less now. It was unbelievable to watch.

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 11:13am 1708121599

Some totally massive losses on housing are racking up now. Buyers today will see similar in 2025/2026 imho, until yields match interest rates.

Old house near me sold for 2 million, 3 years ago. This house would at the very best, get 1.1m now.

All aided and abetted by greedy banks and stupid buying decisions. 50/50 blame here.

We are in the middle of an economic disaster for thousands of Kiwis.

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 24, 4:44pm 1708141451

Just as well we had a MSM that objectively and robustly considered the downside risks to the booming market.

sarc on

by Solid_Granite | 17th Feb 24, 11:14am 1708121689

Yeah no the legal contract home buyers signed with the banks says they don't.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 17th Feb 24, 11:21am 1708122081

The Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act says otherwise and can make the 'contract' null and void.

by Solid_Granite | 17th Feb 24, 11:25am 1708122346

My point is, all the information about risk and possible rising interest rates will be in the contract signed with the bank. People will have been so blinded by FOMO they would have signed immediately without considering all of it.

Next you'll be blaming the media for drumming up FOMO.

by Averageman | 17th Feb 24, 11:42am 1708123370

Err.....if you accept money to print the lies and half truths of the industry, like the Herald does, should you share some of the blame...?

by Solid_Granite | 17th Feb 24, 11:46am 1708123598

Funny how home owners gleefully took the tax free capital gains for years and credit it to their wily ways. But when the tables are turned they want to blame someone else.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 24, 1:26pm 1708129609

I doubt the people "gleefully" taking tax free capital gains are the ones experiencing turned tables, unless they've debt stacked.

Many first home buyers that bought at 2.x% interest rates would have seen their interest rates triple, and their deposit equity disappear. These are people who are just buying a home to live in. Many financial geniuses on here like to lambaste them for being dummies, but reality is businesses exist to provide a product and expertise in exchange for income so that people don't need to be a "jack of all trades", and the banks have failed in that regard.

by Yvil | 17th Feb 24, 12:57pm 1708127870

I was going to point out that banks won't ask the borrowers who borrowed big and made millions to pay the banks more, so why should the bank help those who borrowed big and may lose. I was going to talk about personal responsibility vs blaming others, but you're clearly not interested in a counterpoint: Please spare me the argumentum ad odium responses that only serve to reinforce the views banks want you have so they get off scot free. So I won't say that.

by kiwikidsnz | 17th Feb 24, 2:26pm 1708133169

A partial solution is to ensure that banks have their own skin in the game in a meaningful direct way - no recourse mortgage loans.

Another idea could be to mandate RE Agents commission is paid 50/50 by both buyer & seller, this happens in some other countries & constrains the market exuberance a bit.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 2:44pm 1708134253

the RBNZ at any time can increase the amount of capital a bank must hold against a residential mortgage

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 6:24pm 1708147469

I so agree with this. Used to be that agents would give a fair assessment of a property, when we were young, agents would advice on where to pitch an offer or help with pointing out defects. They can’t do that now.

So whenever I’m with an agent I always feel like it’s a hard sell con job. we only ever get told about the really high priced sales, lower sales are not discussed and the data is hidden for as long as possible. The best of the agents will say nothing about the sale situation, the worst will cover up and hide info from the buyer if they can.

But they are paid by the seller and so work for them. Buyers have to be very wary of agents current arr@ngement. I am horrified sometimes when I hear the things are taking on bored from agents ( at open homes)

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 24, 1:23pm 1708129411

I've mentioned this many times on here. Interesting that mortgage lending seems to be the only sector where the retailer seemingly gets a free pass for selling a dodgy product. Yes, the borrower signed up to the loan, but the banks applied test rates that have now been shown to be completely inadequate and were reckless in lowering them.

Anyone that buys a cheap fridge should know full well it might not last more than a couple of years, yet the CGA covers them for losses. But someone signs up to a mortgage assessed by the bank and their interest rate triples in 2 years? Tough luck....

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 2:00pm 1708131622

Our biggest bank, assessed test rates at the "worst case scenario" of 5.8% at one stage.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 24, 4:38pm 1708141137

And then 12 months later you couldn't find a carded rate below 6%. Why did they even need to drop the test rates? Could have just let the market enjoy low interest rates on lower principal amounts. But then existing home owners wouldn't have made a killing in capital gains (like I did).

by CN - new | 17th Feb 24, 11:23pm 1708165386

"Our biggest bank, assessed test rates at the "worst case scenario" of 5.8% at one stage."

Remember at the time, most people believed that interest rates would continue to remain low for quite some time.

People forget the economic conditions at that time - many were forecasting a negative OCR.

1) one year mortgage interest rates at 2.55% p.a

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/105935/anz-cuts-all-its-spe…

2) "If New Zealand enters a dreaded double dip recession, or W shaped disaster, then negative rates may go from being possible to probable."

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/105997/kiwibank-chief-economist-jarr…

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/105694/our-central-bank-might-have-d…

3) The country was experiencing deflation

The country's set to see its largest quarterly fall in inflation for at least five years, but possibly the biggest fall since 1998, when Statistics New Zealand unveils the June quarter Consumer Price Index on Thursday (July 16). (For the record a -0.5% fall would be the biggest quarterly drop since the fourth quarter of 2015, while -0.6% or more would be the biggest fall since the fourth quarter of 1998.)

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106023/plunging-fuel-prices-have-contri…

4) Expectations of a double dip recession

ANZ economists are raising the prospect that the country might see a 'double-dip' recession from the end of this year and into next year.

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/106356/economists-countrys-largest-b…

That stress test rate of 5.8% was back in August 2020 and was at a spread of over 3.25% over the one year mortgage rate (that is wider than the spread currently used) - at the time I recall some borrowers complaining that the stress test rate was too high relative to the interest rate that they were paying - they wanted to borrow more and had reached the limits of their borrowing power. The likelihood of mortgage interest rates rising 3.25% percentage points in a short period of time seemed low by many people.

So under those economic conditions, many chose to borrow large amounts of money relative to their household incomes. They assumed that interest rates would continue to remain low - that assumption has been subsequently proven to be incorrect.

Warnings were given by the RBNZ Governor in Feb 2021, which may have been ignored - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300238808/reserve-bank-govern…

Now many highly leveraged borrowers are going to face the consequences of their choice to borrow large amounts of debt relative to their income - many are going to end up with financial stress, and mental stress.

by NZGecko | 18th Feb 24, 10:25am 1708205151

Great collection of relevant facts there CN!

Your work here is very important and helpful for many who have been duped by the Property Pied Pipers, most active on Oneroof: Tones comb and Ash ponzi inflater.

Many were led to their financial drowning.

Your arrangement of facts and chronology is brilliant and beats anything listed as news on the Owoofie.

Keep it Up!!!

by CN - new | 20th Feb 24, 5:00pm 1708401659

People who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.

Due recognition should be given to the team at interest.co.nz for keeping a list of their historical articles for all readers. It makes it easier to find the historical facts.

There are 2 other article worth revisiting that have importance with the passing of time and events.

Here's the first - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/85201/reserve-bank-confirms-meeting…

If the debt to income ratio was approved back then, and implemented in say 2018 - 2019 at say 5x, then many borrowers of 2020-2021 are likely to not have been approved to take on large debts to relative to their income.

Here's an interesting comment that was made in the article back in 2016 -

"by Yoda | 13th Dec 16, 1:03pm

No politician would allow DTIs in an election year. They could do the right thing or they could kick the can down the road and cripple the country's future.

It's an easy choice for them - delay and paper over the stinking cesspool that a future generation will have to live in (the same generation whose retirement plans they're about to postpone)."

Here is an example of how that would have impacted a potential borrower. This guy didn't realise it then, but being rejected excessive credit from the bank was actually a blessing in disguise. Being declined for a large mortgage was better than getting approved to overpay for a house.

Nov 2021 - https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/11/first-home-buyer-not-very-…;

So what would have happened if this guy bought in Nov 2021? Let's take a look at what could have happened.

A) buying a house

Nov 2021

REINZ median house price in Auckland: 1,300,000

Mortgage at 80% LVR: 1,040,000

Equity: 260,000

Jan 2024

REINZ median house price in Auckland: 975,000 (-25.0%)

Mortgage: 1,040,000 (assumed to be interest only to illustrate impact on equity) - note that the LVR is now over 100%

Equity: NEGATIVE 65,000 (-125% of initial equity, negative equity position)

B) keeping money in bank, and continue saving for a house

Nov 2021

Time deposit: 260,000 (same as house purchase)

Jan 2024

Time deposit with interest (after tax of 33%): 271,000

Now that deposit can be used to buy a house at the current price. This results in a smaller mortgage (704,000 vs 1,040,000 if purchased in Nov 2021), reduced total interest payments over 30 years.

REINZ median house price in Auckland: 975,000

Equity 271,000

Mortgage : 704,000 (LVR of 72.2%)

So from an equity perspective, keeping money on time deposit at the bank was a far better outcome than buying a house in November 2021.

Also note that the difference is greater when adjusting for inflation.

Here are some of those households that are now facing the consequences of their earlier choice to borrow large amounts to buy

(This excludes actual mortgagee sales). :

1) Jan 2023 - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/homeowners-scared-a…

2) Feb 2023 - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-shock-900fortnight-rise-fo…

3) May 2023 - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/peak-ocr-pain-auckland-couple-working-f…

4) May 2023 - https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/latest-news/interest-rate-pain-banks-urg…

5) July 2023 - https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/they-dont-know-how-theyll-afford-it-home…

6) July 2023 https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/desperate-homeowners-turning-to-third-ti…

7) July 2023 - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/132483897/mortgage-rate-pain-…

😎 Nov 2023 - https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/refix-terror-homeowner-has-to-stump-up-a…

Expect more news reports of highly leveraged borrowers in cashflow stress to be reported in the main stream media.

by CN - new | 18th Feb 24, 1:45pm 1708217152

Here's the other from November 2021 (remember that this was peak house prices in NZ). Kudos to David Chaston on this. At the time, many readers failed to appreciate the significance of this article. With the passing of time, it has proved to be accurate.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/113302/market-conditions-mum-dad-re…

by CN - new | 18th Feb 24, 3:54pm 1708224891

Reminder:

What were property commentators saying at or just after the peak?

1) Tony Alexander - 19 reasons why there's no crash - December 2021

https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/delivery/DeliveryManagerServlet?dps_…

2) Catherine Masters - July 2022

Why the New Zealand housing market is nowhere near crash point

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/why-the-new-zealand-housing-market-is-no…

3) Ashley Church - April 2022

Four reasons the housing market won't crash

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashley-church-four-reasons-the-housing-m…

4) Kelvin Davidson - Dec 2021

“But will prices actually fall? I’m not convinced because in the past a serious housing downturn has come with a recession, but no one is suggesting that and unemployment is low at 3.4 per cent.”

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127305870/what-lie…

5) Nov 2021 - Here's why it might be fruitless to pin your hopes on a house price crash

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300449314/heres-why-it-might-be-fruitl…

This is what some commentators on interest.co.nz were saying at the peak. They may or may not have vested interests. The point is that these commenters are unable to see the impact of their advice at that time on those highly leveraged buyers in late 2021 - 2022.

Imagine an owner occupier taking their advice at the time, using ALL their life savings (incl Kiwisaver) and taking on large amounts of mortgage debt to purchase an owner occupier residential dwelling, who is now in cashflow stress, mental stress and could lose their owner occupied home in a mortgagee sale, and now face life changing financial circumstances which result in a deterioration of lifestyle at retirement. Many have experienced a significant loss in their equity deposit (some may even be in negative equity) and facing cashflow stress.

Names omitted intentionally (but these commenters are still active on interest.co.nz. Two of the commenters made comments on this very article)

a) 9th Nov 21, 2:38pm

"I have always looked at this from the opposing direction - the risk in not owning a property? If you do not own a property you are short, not even square, but short"

b) 9th Nov 21, 5:52pm

"Or maybe right the opposite, don't hesitate, be brave and go for it, you'll be fine"

c) 23rd Nov 21, 8:52am

"It makes absolutely no sense for a couple like this to bank a capital gain now rather than wait two years and avoid 90k in taxes. The market is not going to crash 10% in the next two years."

d) 9th Nov 21, 2:38pm

"locally, I can not see anything in the near future that would decrease these current values."

e) 14th Oct 21, 11:25am

Shrewd investors will capitalise on perceived price weakness - cementing their position for the next market upswing.

Well located property remains a prime investment for the long term. (But you already know that.)

If these commenters did not have any vested financial self interest, then they didn't know what they didn't know. They didn't know about the extremely elevated house price risks.

by CN - new | 18th Feb 24, 2:01pm 1708218062

"helpful for many who have been duped by the Property Pied Pipers, most active on Oneroof: Tones comb and Ash ponzi inflater.

Many were led to their financial drowning."

Owner occupier buyers - remember there will ALWAYS be someone telling people that now is the best time to buy.

Why?

Because these people need to earn income to put food on the table to feed their families, pay for the roof over their heads (either rent or mortgage). More property transaction volume and transaction values financially benefit the following groups of people:

1) real estate agents

2) mortgage brokers

3) property mentors

4) property developers

There are others.

Positive spin leads to increased confidence to persuade people to buy.

Always remember the vested financial self serving interests involved.

by lockdowndays | 18th Feb 24, 10:04pm 1708247045

I completely agree @chrisofnofame, it should be rephrased with “people were LED to believe they could afford…” . The blame following these kinds of fallouts is so misdirected - the banks should have had ruthless controls slapped on them to stop this exact thing.

by Nellbell | 17th Feb 24, 7:33am 1708108381

How have we got to a point where a 2million dollar home loan is even a regular thing

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 7:42am 1708108953

they do comment a few will be business loans, multi-property and bridging..... but a good number will be single house at 6k a fortnight

by ChrisOfNoFame | 17th Feb 24, 10:39am 1708119556

Without knowing a breakdown of why these loans were taken out it is hard to draw any conclusions.

One situation I know of is that of a business owner/investor who has a $10m+ property and when they need quick cash at low'ish rates they draw down their Revolving Credit Facility (RCF). Their credit limit is 'around $4m' they tell me.

Another situation some years back was a family friend who was part of a Lloyd's syndicate that had some big claims to pay. They likewise had a very substantial RCF limit in the millions and they drew down on that.

When property is valued in the 10s of millions you don't just leave that capital idle. You make it earn. Lloyd's syndicates are one way but there are many, many others. I have a long time friend who has worked at the great vampire squid bank all his life. How the rich 'invest' is completely different to mere mortals. They'd never accept 6% in a TD. Ever!

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 9:39am 1708115956

Real Estate toerags, aka pawn shop P Brokers and their Oneroof accomplices (esp: Tony comb and church of Ash buynow/bequick) will be coughing up coffee in a few months as a confluence of clusterbust of confidence, beats down the doors of the obvious, would be, property spruikers brigade.

The smart ones are the selling now, without delay!!

The buyers today are the useful idiot, dog turdbag holders, who will see tens, to hundreds of thousands in losses in 2025 2026.....

1.Intl money markets are resuming their upwards climb = higher mortgage rates and HFL confirmation is set in concrete.

2. A wave of seller's are starting to ramp up to a tsunami like crescendo over winter, as the speculater friendly Govt, nets a certain own goal, with the brightline giving the now debt drowning and bedraggled specuvester a tax free exit, stage left, quick!!

Flood of listings comming. REA toad, lower level ticket clipping, wet dream stuff.

3. The peoples ability to pay, getting King Hit, full on SUCKER punched. Funding getting wound down or completely shut down with higher interest costs, DTI imposition and job losses sapping most buying demand.

4. RBNZ seek to right past wrongs, never again will the property market rise unchecked!

5. Major housing market regions get new, "reality check" CVs. These will lock into the conscienceness of seller's, that real values have dropped hundreds of thousands since 2021. Hard reality, as thousands sell for major losses. Oh well, specuvester can always get a real job and work into his 70s.........

Specuvester and REAs worst nightmare and these scrotes may have some serious come to Jesus moments?

Sorry, Jesus may turn down the applications, as they fail the " good character" requirements.

Just maybe their people farming and lowly ticket clipping ways will change?

Maybe not.

The clown car driving Oneroof writers are befuddled YET again, as their market propping scratching's are laid to waste, as the housing market does the opposite of their spruiker writings.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 7:56am 1708109762

We have come some way, I can see a bottom in AKL about 20% lower then 150k income buys 745k average multiple of 4.9, I think 10% down by the end of the year

by CN - new | 17th Feb 24, 11:43pm 1708166615

"I can see a bottom in AKL about 20% lower"

For the record, no property price forecaster is expecting property prices to fall in 2024 - 2025. These price forecasters don't see the important dots or haven't connected the important dots. They don't see the house price risks that many commenters here can see.

Here are the current property price forecasts:

Capital Economics is forecasting 7.0% average house price growth (in nominal terms) in NZ in 2024.

FYI, for the record, a summary of economist's forecasts for house price growth in 2024 can be found here

https://youtu.be/p-jSj3a5Dko?t=226

The median is +5.2%, with the range from +2.0% to 8+.0%

Tony Alexander forecast +10% growth in house prices in 2024.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-expect-10-house-price-gro…

REINZ median house price for NZ at Dec 2023: $779,830 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/125955/auckland-market-led-house-pr…

REINZ median house price estimates at Dec 2024 based on following house price change forecasts:

1) +5.2% increase (median forecast): $820,381

2) +2.0% increase - low of the range: $795,427

4) +10.0% increase - forecast by Tony Alexander: $857,813

Meanwhile price extrapolators continue to extrapolate.

by Averageman | 17th Feb 24, 8:20am 1708111201

Ticket clippers the summer boom/rush/salvation is coming to a close. It's a bust.

Again, it's not that people don't want to buy, it's that they can't qualify for the loans. Accordingly the speculative suger rush when banks ignored that fact...is over. Rates look like heading higher to boot.

DTI will mean speculators have to have 80% equity vs the 20% banks historically supported. True investors are still on the sideline as the math is still uneconomic.

Gonna be lots of tears and tales of woe in granny herald this year.

🍿

by mikekirk29 | 17th Feb 24, 8:26am 1708111618

Problem is not what buyers are prepared to pay it is that there are not enough buyers. That in turn is due to there not being enough people willing to sell themselves due to unrealistic price expectations

A crucial metric could be how many new listings there are pcm compared to prev years, NOT how many are listed in total. Listing total will rise due to piling up of what isn’t selling

by Dgm | 17th Feb 24, 8:33am 1708111992

If results are this bad now, what would happen if there is a rate hike?

by Averageman | 17th Feb 24, 10:51am 1708120293

Indeed. Rate hike and shortening the flipper tax will fuel the rush to the exits.....Is this year year when the property bubble cycle moves from fear to capitulation...?

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 24, 8:44am 1708112649

Did ANZ revise their house price predictions downwards?

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 9:45am 1708116344

Sure as eggs (ANZ been caught pants down many times, as they constantly revise house price forecasts down and interest rates up, for 3 years now!)

They have proven, literally, to have no idea!

They should save the millions that they spend on economic experts and forecasting......and run an average poll here. Real world punters and Interest writers/watchers have great track records!

by CN - new | 17th Feb 24, 10:26pm 1708161993

Capital Economics is forecasting 7.0% average house price growth (in nominal terms) in NZ in 2024.

FYI, for the record, a summary of economist's forecasts for house price growth in 2024 can be found here

https://youtu.be/p-jSj3a5Dko?t=226

The median is +5.2%, with the range from +2.0% to 8+.0%

Tony Alexander forecast +10% growth in house prices in 2024.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-expect-10-house-price-gro…

REINZ median house price for NZ at Dec 2023: $779,830 - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/125955/auckland-market-led-house-pr…

REINZ median house price estimates at Dec 2024 based on following house price change forecasts:

1) +5.2% increase (median forecast): $820,381

2) +2.0% increase - low of the range: $795,427

4) +10.0% increase - forecast by Tony Alexander: $857,813

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 10:15am 1708118100

Easily a nasty 200++k loss coming for this punter, who purchased way back in 2018.

261 Great North Road | Henderson | Waitakere City | Houses for Sale - One Roof

Worth a peakaboo if you can get it at 2015 values!

Nearby places are selling for upto 700k below CVs!!

I hear the spruiker class claiming "there is no crash"......wtf......biggest crash ever seen in NZ!

As I have said before, we will see the sales values of 2015 to 2017 again soon.

But will that dam hold or will they go lower???

by HouseMouse | 17th Feb 24, 10:21am 1708118462

Lol ‘parking for 8 cars’

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 11:18am 1708121881

Hey, big and leading selling feature in Auck now.

Tried driving down the two-sided parking, narrow parking lots of the newly crowded developments infilling Auckland?.......these are otherwise known as: roads.

by Nzdan | 17th Feb 24, 4:40pm 1708141241

I'm not from Auckland but I can imagine. Similar issue when I was in Rolleston over Christmas, but we're talking the odd 1 or 2 cars on the road creating a single lane bottle neck. These infill developments probably turn the road into a single lane all the way?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 17th Feb 24, 11:13am 1708121627

Not sure I'm following your logic - or maths - there.

261 was bought 2018 for $530k. REINZ suggests a $795K medium estimated value. That's be a 8.4% p.a. return from 2018 which I feel is optimistic in today's market. That said, strange things are happening at the lower end of the market and the house is tidy, interesting, and of good quality. Location's not bad with a 15m walk to the 'mall' and 19m walk to the train station. A couple of enthusiastic bidders at auction and who knows ...

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 12:13pm 1708125202

inner city developers and land bankers have had their ass's wiped already.

by Zwifter | 17th Feb 24, 12:55pm 1708127700

Its Henderson mate, coincidently the same place that has the biggest fat berg problems in the drainage systems in the whole country. Tells you a little about the residents of the area and why you wouldn't want to buy there. There is no one rule that applies for the whole of NZ, areas go up in value while others go down. Ask anyone that bought a cheap place in Ponsonby in the 1970's when nobody wanted to live there, you can get lucky.

by Toye | 17th Feb 24, 1:29pm 1708129774

If you are judging an area by the size of its fatberg you may want to check your brain for one.

by NZGecko | 17th Feb 24, 2:45pm 1708134334

Its indicative of whats going on nationwide, thousands being sold at much less than purchase prices.

Capitulation later in 2024, will exacerbate this current pain.

Untill rates drop meaningfully below 4 to 5% across the board, the spruiker hopes will be dashed.

by CN - new | 17th Feb 24, 1:09pm 1708128561

"biggest crash ever seen in NZ!"

At its peak, the value of housing in NZ was $1.7 triilion. It is the largest asset class in NZ.

The entire stockmarket in NZ is currently valued at less than 10% of the peak value of housing. Imagine the country losing over 100% of the value of the entire NZ stockmarket in the housing market.

by IT GUY | 17th Feb 24, 2:13pm 1708132399

Safe as Houses mate

"top 5 stocks = 75% of S&P500 YTD gain, top 3 tech stocks = 90% of tech sector YTD gain, US equity “breadth” currently worst since Mar’09"

what could possibly go wrong?

by CN - new | 18th Feb 24, 3:57pm 1708225060

"This will lead to some tough post-auction negotiations as agents try to close the gap between the price vendors are prepared to accept and the price potential buyers are prepared to pay."

Time constrained and cashflow constrained property owners may need to accept the only offer that they receive.

by MoneyMaven | 23rd Feb 24, 2:11pm 1708650709

Interesting to see the auction rooms buzzing with activity, even if the sales rate hasn't quite caught up. Do you think buyers are waiting for prices to drop further, or are there other factors at play? It'll be interesting to see how these post-auction negotiations unfold.