New Reserve Bank paper puts estimate of Auckland housing shortage far higher than previous RBNZ estimates; says if construction worker shortfall continues it will be 'difficult' to overcome the shortage

By David Hargreaves

A new Reserve Bank discussion paper is putting Auckland's shortage of houses at far higher numbers than previously estimated by the RBNZ, while it says the region's probably short of about 9,000 construction workers.

The paper notes that if the construction worker shortfall persists "it will be difficult for Auckland to overcome its housing shortage".

"Residential construction and population growth in New Zealand: 1996-2016", was written by the New Zealand Productivity Commission's Andrew Coleman (who is also with Otago University) and the RBNZ's Özer Karagedikli.

This paper aims to understand how population growth has affected building activity in New Zealand regions during the last 20 years. Using "panel data regression techniques", the paper's authors estimate that 0.25 – 0.30 additional houses are built for every additional person in a region. The additional 0.25 – 0.30 building permits per person equate to about 40 m2 of new construction, with a value of just over $60,000 in 2016 terms. 

"The estimates suggest Auckland’s construction shortfall between 1996 and 2016 was between 40,000 and 55,000 dwellings, or approximately 10 percent of Auckland’s housing stock."

In fact, the preferred model that the two have used puts the shortage at 54,000. And remember that's 2016 - not now. The report stresses that there was no significant shortfall of housing in Auckland up till about 2005 and it has worsened considerably since then.

The estimates in this paper compare with a 2016 estimate from then RBNZ Deputy Governor (currently Acting Governor) Grant Spencer, which put the shortfall at between 20,000 and 30,000.

The report authors say the difference is in part through different methodology.

They say the reasons for Auckland's  housing shortfall are unclear, "but may reflect the impact of land-use restrictions imposed after 2005".

"Even if land-use restrictions were solved, Auckland has such a shortage of construction workers relative to the rest of the country that it may need 9000 more construction workers to meet its ongoing demand for new houses."

The paper's authors say that using regional variation in population growth rates they have investigated how population growth affects residential construction across New Zealand regions.

"We find that an additional person in a region is associated with 0.25 new houses or $65,000 (2016 dollars) new construction including new consented alterations. Indeed, population growth is so strongly associated with construction activity that international and interregional migration may be hyper-expansionary, as the short run demand associated with each additional person is greater than their average level of output."

Elsewhere in the report they say: "The additional construction associated with an additional person is more than New Zealand’s per capita GDP, which in 2016 was $54,178.

"For the country as a whole, this means that unusually high inward migration will be hyperexpansionary, as the immediate demand for housing by immigrants exceeds their productive potential. For this reason, the short term impact of population increase may be to increase labour demand by more than labour supply, potentially causing labour shortages and placing upward pressure for additional inward migration.

"As such, these estimates appear to support [previous published academic papers] that [say] high levels of inward migration to New Zealand cause rather than alleviate labour shortages."

The discussion paper raises the question that, as well as changes in land use restrictions after 2005, the melt-down of the finance company sector from about 2007 may have had an impact in the collapse of apartment building in central Auckland.  

The paper says there were 11251 building permits for apartments in central Auckland in the three years between July 2002 and June 2005; in contrast, only 786 were issued from July 2008 to June 2012. Between 2002 and 2005 central Auckland apartments comprised 17.6% of all permits issued in New Zealand; from 2009-2012 they were only 1.6%.

"Whether these data are interpreted as evidence that the apartment building boom largely prevented Auckland from having a serious housing shortfall prior to 2005, or evidence that the collapse in Auckland’s apartment market is a large component of why Auckland has an acute housing shortfall, is perhaps a matter of choice," the authors say.

"Either way, the data suggests that understanding the collapse of central Auckland’s new apartment market may be as important as understanding Auckland’s suburban land-use issues."

The paper says that in 2015 the New Zealand Productivity Commission conducted an extensive inquiry into the operation of New Zealand’s land markets, arguing that regulation changes introduced in Auckland in 2005 concerning the minimum floor size, the availabilities of balconies, stud height, the overall size of a building, and the sight-lines all sparked the collapse of apartment building in Auckland, partly because they significantly raised the price at which apartments could be profitably sold.

The RBNZ paper authors say, however,  these regulations "may not have been the only factor".

"Much of the finance for these apartments was obtained from finance companies. Beginning in 2006 and 2007, investors in finance companies began to doubt the quality of the assets of the sector, resulting in a collapse of more than 50 companies and large losses to depositors.

"As standard economic theory suggests that a collapse of financial intermediation can lead to significant reductions in investment activity, it is possible that the collapse of these finance companies may be part of the reason for the subsequent collapse in new apartment construction.

"Since this hypothesis has not been comprehensively explored in this context, it warrants further investigation." 

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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172 Comments

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15

We need two of those town square clocks that show housing shortage and immigration arrivals. Someone care to sponsor one?

Duncan Garner promised to have it on the AM show , showing the number of houses actually built . Apparently his bosses vetoed him

... possibly they thought viewers might misconstrue the numbers on the " houses built " clock with the show's approval rating ...

A row of zeroes impresses no one ...

May I add we also need a large digital display showing the total nzd credit is circulating in nz just to show people how worthless their money is getting by the year. Maybe if they know how big the whole pie is expanding every year, they will soon wake up to how banks and govt are ripping their savings off.

You can find this information on the RBNZ website. Here is a link to Historical House Price Index going back to Q4 1979. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Statistics/Key%20grap...

I will try and find the stats for our currency devaluation. It is very interesting.

No need for that, South Africa is showing us the way. Any new immigrants (say the last 30 years) should have all residential property they own as investments confiscated to be distributed to the homeless and renters.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1200...

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We don't have a housing crisis.
We have population growth crisis.
Stop the population growth and the housing will catch up.
The overwhelmed infrastructure and services is the big problem. Stop the population growth.

If you're going to stop the population growth then get people out of those offices and back doing a real days work!
Start with staffing levels in the created job sectors of Government!
Helen Clarks concept of a so-called higher qualified work-worce isn't working.

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Its a debt issue. There are houses to live in. Just not enough to buy. There are around 30-40k houses in Auckland that are totally unoccupied, that would basically immediately end the housing crisis. Census data shows around 180k dwellings nationwide that are unoccupied. There is no undersupply of physical houses, or very little to say the least, but there is an enormous oversupply of credit. Unoccupied homes is a classic indicator of speculative activity.

Sorry guys.

Might have something to do with the government agenda to drive landlords out of the rental industry.

Landlords have been on a dream run, subsidised by the government. It's they that have pushed the house and land prices through the roof.

Ocelot,according to Stats NZ tenure estimates,in the past decade,there has been an increase of 40,300 private households,just over 3 percent. During the same period,those living in rental accomodation has surged by 25 percent,or 114000 households,almost a rate of 3x the above. The figures are not regional.

Some people here and on PropertyTalk might argue that there are plenty more generous people out there providing shelter for those who cannot afford it, coupled with less people wanting the hassles of home ownership preferring to dump 2/3rds of their pay into someone elses pocket.

Ocelot - I agree landlords have had a dream run - and I have benefited myself - mostly not from landlordism but more for properties I own for my own use and businesses.
But But. Landlords have not driven this bit of pushing prices through the roof. That's dumb. Landlords are just in the rising tide like everyone else.
I do worry what will happen when the capital gains cease. I think that likely and desirable both. It seems to me that if you rented out property and after some years it would sell for the same price you bought it for, the whole basis of the business would change.
You would need a rent that would cover all costs and long term maintenance, some margin, and money to cover your time effort risk and worry. Would not be worth doing unless rents are 50% to 100% higher than now. Can't see how that would work.
The best future for New Zealand is very high home ownership. With a very small rental market for occasional convenience only, not lifelong.

Ocelot - landlords didn't create the shortage.....policy and legislation did......there is a huge difference between opinion and fact......so why point the finger and attack one sector ? Or is it that you are prejudiced?

Landlords didn't create the shortage - is that an opinion or a fact?

This morning there were 10 pair of shoes on my doorstep.
My partner took 1 pair.
My kids took 5.
The tenants took 2.
The Landlord took 2

When I go out there are NO SHOES........this is a fact.........

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lalaland, it's the same in Australia - ghost houses. Speculators own but not prepared to rent them out. It's one hell of a precarious situation should margin calls kick in.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-17/vacancy-tax-wont-solve-australias-...

Yeah, its a fallacy that we need more houses. Which sort of means its a bubble

Chinese buyers prefer empty houses.

The unoccupied homes are mainly holiday homes,baches,cribs and shacks.Unoccupied homes in Auckland in nominal terms have barely fluctuated this century using census data. Unoccupied homes barely constitute speculative activity.

Lalaland,
Most of the immigration is into Auckland and that's where the housing shortage is.
The government cant suddenly force the unoccupied houses to be "occupied" or should we nationalize them?
A land tax will apply some pressure but if someone can afford to leave a house vacant they probably don't care about a land tax either, and I'm sure some may be vacant due "speculative behavior" (money laundering)

@lalaland Most unoccupied homes are holiday homes or the stock the is, at the time, in the process of ownership change.

Can you please provide some evidence that: "There are around 30-40k houses in Auckland that are totally unoccupied", that sounds unbelievable

would like to see the graph overlayed with net immigration

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Haha , what happened to the 100,000 affordable houses then ?

Absolutely NOTHING has been done ............. we dont even have a strategy document or public discussion paper to give us a clue as how something as important as this would work .

And its coming up for the first 100 days really soon

Like the Trump administration after 100 days , there is nothing to report not a single brick laid not a single wall built , no plan and like a fish out of water.

The 3 losing teams that have taken over the circus cant even get the clowns onto the stage ( the clowns are on strike )

Its frankly a disaster

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Boatman, THE MAN 2, National had a target of 39,000 HOUSES! After NINE YEARS and all they managed was...wait for it (100) Yes, that's (ONE HUNDRED) affordable homes.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/97736731/Fewer-than-100-affordable-hous...

National failed the people that needed help most.

Bloody Hell, just read your link NZDan!! Kiwibuild is a joke:

“MBIE advice released under the OIA states that Kiwibuild will build only 8,000 houses over the next three years while Treasury advice shows that most were either going to be built anyway through the existing Crown building programme or purchased by the Government from existing developments.

“On top of that, the Reserve Bank has already stated that it expects ‘around half of the proposed increase will be offset by a reduction in private sector activity’. And today, the Reserve Bank has pushed off into the future any positive impact of the KiwiBuild policy and is actually expecting residential house building to grow more slowly than it has been over the next couple of years.

“So if we’re being generous, we’re talking an extra 1,333 houses a year over the next three years, most of which were going to happen anyway. That’s this Government’s much ballyhooed solution to the ‘housing crisis’?

Yeah as much as I feel Labours promises are going to be followed with more and more lip service, and less actual doing, I still can’t help but judge political parties on their past performance and National were a joke as well.

Nzdan, where theres hope theres light? http://www.labour.org.nz/housing

If they don't reach the 10,000 pa target National will no doubt milk it for all its worth but they will need to devise an even better policy ahead of the 2020 election to capture the sceptical votes. Good luck doing that.

Better policy....1334 EXTRA houses per year, done! All well and good to quote 10000/yr anyone can do that. The proof is in the pudding

lol, hope is the virtue of the hopeless losers ... we need more than hope to build houses RP.

" Milk it for all it is"? ...lol , well what would you do with such a big fat cow ready to be milked ? ... But, why milk when Labour keeps diluting this issues to a point where the cow will burst by itself ... Talk is cheap, when people are swimming in hope in the absence of common sense.

You can discredit the commentators here as much as you like, but cannot dare to discredit RBNZ and MBIE opinions, advise, and actions based on info obtained through OIA ....
IF these people think that it will be only 8000 houses built in 3 years then this Gov would have deceived the NZ people on its main election promise and worth of no support or any sympathy in 2020.

Spectacle Labour voters will evaporate when the number of houses actually being built on the ground by the end of 2019 are actually revealed .... anyone who was sucked in by reading the link you keep posting about Labour Housing policies will find out that it was stardust BS designed to fool the hopefuls and the vulnerables looking for a straw to hang on after the media & co have softened them well through the campaign and promised them a feast.

What do you do with liars in your household RP?

What do you do with liars in your household...?

Oh, I know the answer to this one. Elect them for three terms in a row then rant and moan when they lose the fourth election?

Yeah ...cursing National won't build any houses, ever ... try talking to the people in POWER today , see when will they BUILD the promised paradise ? .. If ever, and if not Why not? .... its called accountability.

Looks like RBNZ and MBEI have already washed their hands off and made up their minds ....

I'm not cursing National, I'm pointing out a double standard. You can't blame folk on here for highlighting that double standard - it's called accountability.

It's deliciously ironic Eco-Bird and their ilk demanding accountability; Northland bridges, 10 you say, not a whisper, pony tail gate, that JK eh? I'd love to drink a few pints with him, Double Dipton nothing, Barclay paying off staff with tax payer money, he was only young, cheeky wee chappy, leave him alone, Oravida, Swamp Kauri, Sheep to Saudi, Peter Thiel, health services, housing - it's all a bit of a laugh really.

As soon as they lose - toys out of pram, caps lock permanently on and exclamation marks become permanent fixtures. WON'T SOMEONE THINK OF MY PROPERTY PORTFOLIO??????!!!!!!!!!

Regardless of where one apportions blame the problems are hardly insurmountable, just politically and socially fractious. Mandate aside the only way out of it is a graduated response not just because it is politically and fiscally expedient to do so but because fundamentally any potential resolution will only result from a collaborative effort between private and public capital, strategy and focus. We dont operate in a vacuum of unchanging societal norms hence what is begun today will very likely be manifestly different both in outcome and perception in years to follow. Simple evolution and human condition, those are the base drivers that will ultimately dictate the route to be taken. Revolutionary idealism of the kind being espoused in recent times has no credibility or longevity in this part of the world and despite the most sincere of intentions the last seventy odd years of western history demonstrate that progressive social change is fundamentally a product of structural shift and accommodation rather than vast upheaval and militant behaviour. It is what it is and if anything it will be even less likely to usurp the political economy that rightly or wrongly we have, depending on your point of view, either prospered or floundered in.

Labour promised 10000 homes a year, now frantically trying to walk it back, MBIE thinks they might be able to do 8000 out of the 30000 promised this term (ie about a quarter). Anyone here more optimistic?

Lets not bother to do this.

Well a bloody sight more optimistic than I was before a few weeks after 20 Sept last year.

Maybe we could house a small family under the shelter of your enlarged optimism.

Well, it would probably beat the crap out of what the Nats were offering

All things are possible for he who doesn't have to do it.

MBIE are part of the problem. All this red tape. I looked up good quality a building product. Poland or Netherlands price: $109. NZ price: $292. Why? Anyone selling it in NZ has to provide a $$$ BRANZ or CodeMark certification. So no wonder there are only two companies selling this type of product in NZ.

While I would like to see good quality products completing freely in the nz market I think there is a sad condition in nz that's prevents it to happen. What I mean is I find that European countries/society tend to be more honest and fair to one another while Anglo countries is more and more about the $$$ more than anything else. So what would happen in nz is if we let all sorts of un regulated products trading freely is a path racing to lowest quality possible. Think all those leaky apartments during 2000's or our food/chothing outlets and you will see a culture of quantity over quality. Kiwis or the new kiwis whom are mostly from 3rd world countries just cannot self regulate.

I think claims on that scale require some supporting evidence.

... as it's coming to the end of summer , perhaps Phil " the Tool Man " Twyford should head down to Kathmandu and get a bargain on 100 000 affordable tents ?

The winter of our discount tent .... again .... SIGH !

He’s already bought shares in Kathmandu!

Does GBH know something we don't then?

Sly little MPs - I wouldn't put it past them.

GBH on the GHB again

From personal experience Auckland Council building and consents appear to be understaffed and struggling to cope with the current volumes of consent applications.

What this report doesn't specify is just how many additional workers will be needed in the building and infrastructure depts. at ACC. I suspect it will be in the thousands. And who will fund this additional headcount?

If'n yer lives in Awkland, hold up a mirror....

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The housing shortage in Auckland is both chronic and expanding.

Don't trust any politician who says he/she can solve the problem within 10 years - or even 20 years.

Demographic pressures in Auckland are substantial and unrelenting.

TTP

That is my take on it too. There is no hope of any govt, no matter how well intentioned, being able to fix it. Congestion will only get worse and public transport can't fix the problem. Which is why I'm getting out next week...

You are happening a lot - relieving some pressure.

Once the economy turns a bit, the rats will scurry off too the lucky country also. It wont happen over night, but it will happen. Our wages are comparatively rubbish and our cost of living high. And the weather - decidedly average.

It's oppressively hot in Australia and creepy crawlies, even plants, trying to kill you all the time

And its full of Australians. Not for me, but a lot will leave.

Err there are already circa 500k kiwis in Queensland alone, most educated here and under 35. Great tax payback on that.

Well done stupid house prices and rents. Leverage up ponzi couldnt care on that one though. Sooner the new Govt forces a property reset the better.

I disagree, Auckalnd has a lovely climate, and pretty good recreational amenities, just infrastructure that sucks. I'm sad to be leaving, but it's crazy to remain in a place that is rapidly sliding downhill.

Yes the grass is always greener somewhere else

You must like rain.

I am totally love / hate on Auckland. Beautiful harbour and landscape, plenty of vibrancy and arts and culture, great food culture, nice (generally) climate, great education and plenty of jobs. But yeah, crazy cost of living and terrible infrastructure

Fritz, are you going to the Lantern Festival tonight?

Not tonight. I have been a couple of times before. It's a good event but I don't really see the point anymore. Lots of bank tents (yawn), extremely crowded, some tacky stalls and you can get good Chinese food pretty much anywhere these days.
But it's a positive celebration of Chinese culture.
Just not my cup of trea

A builder will get paid a wage of around $50 to $55 per hour in Australia. Builder on wages in NZ seems to be anywhere from $25 to $35.00 gross per hour......Meanwhile in NZ a Sub-contractor sole operator builder might be getting paid from as low as $40 to $45 per hour through to a main contractor builder charging around $60 per hour plus.....both subby builder and main contractor have similar business costs and systems to maintain......many sub-contractor builders end up going under......Many qualified builders (wage earners and sub-contractors would be better off financially in Australia.

So the Lucky Country is more lucrative and also offers better tax advantages.

1) The government has to wind down the immigration tap

2) Government should modify the immigration settings to address the shortage of builders - ie reduce other immigration

3) There needs to be a housing solution for the immigrant builders otherwise they just add to the housing demand. Perhaps plaster all of Aucklands parks with temporary housing ?

4) Developer contributions need to go. All they do is push up the up front capital cost (developer contributions + land cost + house cost). Increase the rates through targeted rates to pay the development contribution through cashflow. It is the occupants that cause the service demand, not the developer.

5) Free up the RMA to remove land use zoning and go effects based. They use a government or council development corporation to buy & amalgamate titles to increase development density.

A crash, or significant slump, is the only way the issue will be addressed

Hi Fritz,

A crash, or significant slump, is most unlikely.......... and even if one occurred it would make the situation worse, not better.

TTP

'Most unlikely' is an exaggeration. That suggests it is a 0-10% probability. I would suggest it is a 30-40% probability

Really and hope is that going to solve the problem. Just push it down the road for someone else to deal with.

Stop the population growth and the housing crisis will fix its self.
We will still have an infrastructure and services crisis. That will take years to sort out,
Identifying the cause and then fix that is the first step.
Kiwi builds 10,000 houses a year won't even cope with the ongoing incoming immigration of net 70,000.

would love to see a overlay of net immigration on the graph

simon bridges now backtracks on its not a crisis but a challenge
New National Party leader Simon Bridges has admitted that there was a housing crisis for some people during his time in government.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/101842128/new-national-leader-...

Ha ha, politicians eh. National back track on the crisis and Labour back track their simplistic solutions that won't work.

It was best not to listen the simpletons who said the housing crisis was all about foreigners.

Boatman and a few others including “The Man” are realists.
We have not been sucked into the wind that the coalition has been blowing.
Winston Peters who is going to be our
prime minister is strangely silent on everything and has certainly not backed what Jacinda or Twyford have been saying, as he knows it is a joke!
I would bet my last dollar on the fact that the non believers in this coalition are a helluva lot better off financially than the coalition supporters, and are people that get off their butts to improve their life.
The supporters of the coalition will be the total opposite in that they were not happy with their financial position and just hope that the coalition will do it all for them.

It is not up to the country to provide everything for you, it is up to you to do things for yourself.
you may even like the feeling!

Perfectly put

"I would bet my last dollar on the fact that the non believers in this coalition are a helluva lot better off financially than the coalition supporters, and are people that get off their butts to improve their life."

I would bet my last dollar that you guys love yourselves. If you read what Warren Buffet is doing and Bill Gates who Im sure are a little more wealthier then your chicken feed wealth. Then you would understand about how greedy and self absorbed you are.

People like me are investing in Scalable productive businesses if it works I will be pretty comfortable if not, I will look at more scalable ideas. But to me money is a private thing, not something to blow your own trumpet about, unless your insecure and need to advertise yourself as the man.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/aug/15/bill-gates-charity-do...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-charities/buffett-donates-3-1...

"the non believers in this coalition are a helluva lot better off financially " - because they are old and have benefited from stupidly high house prices by any chance? It can't be due to higher intellect; looking at blog sites most of them can barely spell, string a meaningful sentence together, or disable the caps lock key.

Boatman and The Boy were born in the lucky generation. National let down the generations after the boomers as admitted by Don Brash and hence they lost the election last year and will lose at least two more elections unless they get real and admit they stuffed up and they will make it a level playing field for all generations.

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What a terrible housing mess Nick Smith, John Key, Bill English etc left for Labour to clean up.

If that is what you think then *do* something about it instead of 100 days of hand wringing, blame game and inactivity.

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Perhaps Sir John could donate some of the profit from his house sale in Auckland (to a foreign owner) to some of those that are locked out of the market? He could probably build 20 affordable houes himself with th profit - call it an act of altruism from a knight who is here to serve his country (or was it only his ego and bank balance....I'm not so sure...)

IO - so you don't think Sir John gave up enough of his time for this country and should give more. He has already donated all his PM salary to charity for his time in office......NZ was guided through the GFC and did damn well considering the run of finance companies that fell over and the world issues that are still ongoing. There was also the Canterbury earthquakes......

You are full of suggestions have you ever thought about using them to do some of the heavy lifting yourself!

Its that 'love of money stuff'. as Lord Acton said, 'Great men are almost always bad men.'

He has already donated all his PM salary to charity for his time in office.

This is actually not true, just a good PR rumour.

He himself only ever said he'd donate some of it, which is something many do. The "all of it" part really came from the deification process that PR and hungry followers took up with some gusto.

Not to blame you - I used to repeat this rumour too quite sincerely. Genuinely believed it.

I actually don't mind if I'm wrong.........I could have easily been pendantic and ommitted the "all" ......my point was more about the integrity of the man and the events he had to go through in NZ..............good one him if he kept some of his salary, after all he should at least cover some of his personal costs.
He has done well for himself. He didn't exactly have the best of starts but he's made his opportunities.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/573560/Key-pledges-PMs-salary-t...

Point was really it changes the meaning substantially. Most of us give some of our income to charity, but it's not used as a talking point to build our public image.

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It’s absurd that people still get so hung up over Labour’s 100 days despite the opposition doing zilch in 9 years, and they campaigned on it too!!!!

Stop living in the past Nzdan.

Nine years of stuffing up NZ vs 100 days of status quo.

So nine years of FUBARRING NZ does not get forgotten overnight, as much as you would like it to.

Record homelessness, record immigration, record hospital ques, record infrastructure issues, record ................

And, let's all feel sorry for the poor Labour Party who asked us to watch their first 100 days. They didn't really mean it. Oh boo hoo, it's not fair to be judged on performance to promises.

Gee, if you can't stand the heat of being in government then don't apply for the job.

They’re pretty terrible too! I voted National for their 9 years in office so don’t take me for a Labour fanboy but come on don’t apply double standards because you’re a National fanboy.

I am applying a current standard to a current government.

I am even using the 100 day standard that government asked me to use.

Not a fanboy, just someone living in the present who wants results as well as smiles.

What results haven’t you seen out of their 100 day promise? Did you even read it?

You might be drifting off the point, you said it was nothing less than *absurd* to think about Labours first 100-days. A "hang up" you suggested.

But it is in fact neither a hang up nor an absurdity - it is a list of promises the Labour government made.

They didn't have to make a list of promises, but they did. National fanboys (or other derogatory term you choose) didn't make them do it. They did it of their own free will, so please excuse anybody who takes them up on it or uses the phrase.

Oh great - more angry man rant.

Ha ha, is that really the best rational argument you can muster?

Actually, I know from other posts that you can do better than that.

No - but it's just getting a little tedious and boring going over the SAME ground / arguments day, after day, after day.......

My view is ignore the f**king politicians and what they do - work within the boundaries they set (maybe) - people seem to think they are necessary evil.I don't. I've said before they should all be put to the sword as a public service / for the good of humanity.

Okay. Well I am a business person and business people who are not pragmatic by nature are often bankrupt within a few years.

Doesn't make it a crime to tell Labour fanboys to stop living in the past though. The clock *is* running and Labour *are* the government. Be optimistic I say.

That isn't supposed to sound defensive, it is more of an "Okay fair enough".

But that's the thing - I don't think people are being pragmatic when it comes to the Labour v's National v's whoever thing.

What I meant was it’s absurd for people to continue to suggest that Labour hasn’t fulfilled on promises when it was status quo with their predecessor.

Here’s where the substance of the topic comes in, what promises have they reneged on?

Fair enough.

Look, I am happy give them a whole term in government (generous of me I know). But also we need to get past the precious "Jacindamania" honeymoon phase where you can't question any lack of results or misinformation. For goodness sake, Mr Gummy is posting on another thread (as fact) that Jacinda has already banned all foreign investment in NZ, within 24-hrs of being elected no less.

Labour are government. To be more than empty wind bags they have to do something useful. And not just any old thing, the right thing.

Why they picked 100-days is beyond me, what can seriously be achieved in 100 days? Especially by a government with close to zero experience in getting anything done.

And to be doubly fair, I am sure the government is doing the best it can. It is their fanboys who are living in a sort of dumb struck fantasy glow and posting history lessons as if we are still in an election.

100 days is probably a big number to their loyal fan base, half of which probably haven’t worked 100 days between them.

But like I said I reserve judgement until the end of their term and I do see your point. Just give them an opportunity to fail.

Oh you poor dears!

thats the mistake we made with JK, we will give him the first term, then ok second term he will do something, uhoh we are at the third term and nothing is happening.
labour need to get a move on and at least start some of their programs ,
how long does it take to raise points to lower immigration in Auckland ( not elsewhere)
how long does it take to start a greenfield housing development in Auckland with prefab buildings
they are still working on highway 20a to the airport why have they not taken the reigns and told the contractor there is a change of plan and start building the tram from the airport end ( the bridge was already built for the tram to run under }
there is plenty for them to get on with, but they do seem to be going down the same road as the national government where most of what they did was tinker and window dressing

'100 days' at the start of a political term is a hang over from Franklin Roosevelts 'New Deal' and his first 100 days in power in the USA where he came in and made a whole lot of new policies and funded new departments in a Keynsian extravaganza that (many economists now believe) actually extended the Great Depression.

What are you saying?

That we should give this mob 9 years of doing nothing as well?

Still got 9 years minus a hundred or so days of blame game and inactivity to catch up on, I will let you away with the hand wringing, tomato/tomarto

You’re living in the past!

Oh dear

If everyone invested in Houses NZ would be a very poor country, we actually need productive businesses and services to be competitive in the world. Selling houses to foreigners and selling houses to NZ does not create a productive society.

We need global scalable businesses with higher education. We are on the arse end of the world, we need to grab technological ideas and scale it to become any kind of global nation.

The Clarke Labour government were equally culpable, possibly more so

Yep! Rogernomics sold off our national assets.
Clarke govt started selling off our most valuable asset which was our low population density.
The new labour govt is status quo.
NZ First has lost its voice as they have joined the status qou as a minority party.

Handwringing already...really so soon. As others have said, who are undoubtedly eminently more qualified and earnest than I, give the current crop a fair go before lopping the poppies.

Seven Sharp tonight. Auckland family - teachers- move to Feilding. New 4 bed house on large section for $500k. Same 2 salaries as teachers are paid the same anywhere. Money in the bank. Tradies & REs in Fielding are very busy.

Higher salaries for teachers in Auckland are desperately required. Much higher. The govt needs to get it's wallet out

Why should tax payers foot the bill? Maybe those in the leafy suburbs should pay an education levy on their rates. Do the same when there’s a shortage of other essential workers.

It’s not a housing crisis until little Johnny’s favourite teacher moves out of Auckland and the school can’t find a replacement.

“You want a home then don’t live in Auckland, plenty of affordable houses elsewhere! *Chortle*”

“Okay see ya”

“Wait where are you going? Pay Auckland teachers more!!!!!”

Well if you care about education and this country's future then there is no alternative to paying teachers more.
Tell me how Auckland will have enough teachers if we don't?
It's just another case of underinvestment in this country's future that is starting to boil over into crisis.
In most respects we are such a short sighted and self interested people.
Ps. I am not a teacher, neither is my wife. My son is at university and my daughter is nearly finished high school. I do not personally stand to benefit at all from increases in teacher pay

then you will have to pay, police, nurses doctors etc etc, once you open the subsidy door its very hard to close.
the simple solution is to bring housing pricing down, and its not rocket science to do,
lower demand drastically , immigration, take away tax advantages, land tax cg tax on investor housing
whilst ramping up supply. prefab greenfield developments
but which government wants to lower there supporters major asset to achieve a much more even society

Shaetrader i agree with your sentiment of easy to fix, stop the population growth!
I don't agree with the extra taxes though.
I don't want to subsidize the immigration population growth with more tax.
How about tax the immigrants, they are the ones who stepped off the plane and got our infrastructure and services for nothing. Fair enough if they are young professionals who will pay their share of tax but lots of them are nearing their sunset years and will just burden our services.

Not that simple at all

Yep all those professions need to be paid more too. If we need higher taxes to fund it, so be it - it is the 'price' we pay for living in a first world country that demands first world services

Sharetrader makes an interesting point though. Why should NZ's wider taxpayers be asked to foot the bill for teachers, police etc. to be able to afford to live in Auckland?

If higher salaries are required and more taxes are required to pay for these, surely anyone who believes in user pays, free markets and opportunities would not be asking people in other areas to stump up taxes for the cost of their services?

Perhaps it should instead be added to Auckland rates (the only regional tax we really have). That way the users are actually paying for the regional cost of these roles, in line with the regional betterment they receive.

It's been an issue for years. The same old rhetoric was bandied about "Oh there's plenty of affordable housing in New Zealand, just look outside of Auckland". So they did. And now it's a big deal.

Oh there's plenty of teachers outside of Auckland, maybe people need to start sending their kids to these schools. People just need to cut back on the Avocado and work hard for their children's education.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/central-leader/74081699/Prim...

Don’t worry by the end of the month those Fielding house prices would have doubled as speculators flock to the region. Will be as unaffordable as Auckland by the end of the year and the locals will cursing the day they opened the door to Aucklanders.

NZDAN, you are correct, if you are a teacher and you want to,live in Auckland then you don’t deserve to,earn anymore than a teacher in Invercargill.

Auckland people are definitely moving to the South Island as well.

People are getting over Auckland even though they may have been born there.

CHCh is the destination of choice where lifestyle is unparalleled.

So Auckland will end up with no teachers at all eventually. That is a great outcome from your line of thinking The Boy. No wonder you are an R E Agenrt.

Gordon, give it a break, I am no longer a Real Estate Agent!
Up for the challenge yet?
50k out Of your equities would be a drop in the bucket for you!

Exactly.

What a terrible housing mess Nick Smith, John Key, Bill English etc left for Labour to clean up.

Sure did. It will take Labour several terms to clean it up.

lol, .... shall we sign the contracts now then ? why waste money on elections ..eh?... how many terms do you want? ... would 4 terms be enough you reckon? ... Let's do this too ..:)

While the masses are arguing about rising house prices in Auckland, the real mess isn't housing, it is the shortage of teachers that are missing from the Auckland Classrooms! How many "Auckland Families" are going to suffer because their brightest children are going to be denied an education that would have seen these bright young sparks be accepted at our universities? I would be more angry about our education system failing our children, than arguing over who has benefited from the most paper wealth. Our next generation children have had their future potential education and future wealth stolen from them!

Well, it's all connected.

Bill Gates made an interesting comment this morning:

I think that health care costs, education and poverty/mobility deserve a lot more thinking and innovation than they get today. The benefit of getting these things right would be amazing. With all the talk about inequity it is interesting that we still work on vertical areas like health, education, housing, food, etc.. as separate things rather than having a full view of the challenges someone faces.

Truck load of rubbish from a man who wanted to reduce the world population to 500 Million to solve Earth's problems ....

Oh dear... someone has been drinking the infowars kool-aid.

Well it is at least partly due to Auckland's crazy house prices.
But I agree.
Unfortunately we have had a population / property ponzi for the last 20 years with patent underinvestment in education and healthcare.
Sad

Everyone in Auckland needs to shift to Christchurch where there will be plenty of teachers as it is the place to live currently. Funny how the population in Auckland is so much bigger than the population is in Christchurch. I wonder if Auckland has better weather, better job and business opportunities and great access to water recreation. It has downsides but so does everywhere else including Christchurch.

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There is no Auckland housing shortage. There is just a massive population oversupply because greedy neoliberal morons decided to invite half of Beijing to move here to further enrich the the wealthy.

WE DO NOT NEED ALL THESE PEOPLE.

This has brought nothing but ruin upon our lives and our children's lives. The mythical New Zealand lifestyle is circling the drain.

The leftist agenda is a world without borders so immigration will continue no matter who’s in power.

Well you can argue it's more of a neo-liberal agenda

Migration is definitely the No.1 issue here. Forget the implications of lack of government acknowledgement on the housing shortage for now. Like the results of pumping cheap money into a post GFC system pumping more people into small cities, and a small country, is madness to say the least. Turn off the visa tap now, let the "the grass is always greener" folk leave for their better pastures and this will let the rest of us to continue trying to sell our homes to each other for 12 times regular incomes and the government hungry for more ministerial positions to handle the environmental impacts resulting from NZ'd population boom..

30,000 empty Auckland homes ???, will anything show up on the latest census, no.

Probably why your form essentially now turns up in the mail, they would get sick of knocking on doors of unoccupied houses.

The crisis can almost begin to be solved rapidly overnight, just slash immigration. Any one here can see the solution but its not going to happen because they are seen to be fueling the economy when in fact they are killing the country in the long term.

Census- easier to check electricity metering and see which draw almost nothing.

Completely, why then do we not have this information available to us?

What will help a lot is streamlining the building and consent process. Here is a simple one: remove all building restrictions around the CBD (Ponsonby, Parnell, Freemans Bay, St. Mary's Bay etc). People will be able to build what they think the market would like on their own land. We will get a lot more apartments which have to be a major part of new dwellings in Auckland. The same around other metro centres - Takapuna, New Lynn, Manukau etc.

Boy another mess just itching to happen

How so?

That qualifies for dumb question of the day. I suggest you imagine your house being surrounded on all four sides by 20m high walls so apartments can be built without restrictions or regulations... get it?

Yep sorry but if you don't have the money to live in the CBD then its rich to expect others already living there to be happy with high rise buildings going up next door so you can afford to live there. Build your apartment complexes the same as they have done in South Korea, all in one place so there are no nasty surprises for anyone.This has to be done in association with awesome public transport with a bus or train running through every 15minutes. As we cannot even manage to arrive at a decent public transport system in this country the wheels literally fall off before the building even starts. Sorry but they have no idea in NZ and build houses without a thought for the roading or transport infrastructure. Its happening right now where I live in Torbay, a major road going through while the access road to it is still the same as 30 years ago and doesn't even have a footpath with the intersection to east coast road is a nightmare.

Free people can do with what they like with their property. Suburbs change and if a person thinks they can build an apartment building on their land then I think they should be allowed. People will want to maximize their returns and they will build to want the market wants. No one has rights in someone else's land. But I agree regarding PT etc.

Don't forget the volcano view sensitive areas. Whoever came up with that one I am sure did not think it would pretty much restrict any intensification around transport hubs. Come on ACC you can do better.

Do think the central city hasn't changed in the last 100 years go? Does Queen St look the same now as was in 1800's? Also, how would an apartment building be on all four sides of your property - did they build on the road too?
Suburbs change and if you don't like an apartment building next door to you then you move. This might come as a suprise to you but you don't have any right in regards to your neighbour's property. So if your neighbours decide that they want to build an apartment building on their land then they get to do that. Everything else is a distortion of the market. Also I never said no building code - that would still apply. I mean height and set-back rules.

Agree - we need to free the market up. Bit senseless to insist on heavy regulation to prevent building up.

I have a friend who grew up in a weatherboard house on upper Nelson Street. Now it's almost entirely mid and higher rise buildings (save the two little hold-out houses on the lane). I haven't heard people clamouring for the CBD to be reduced in size so we can turn it into a sprawling suburb instead.

Fly-in workers to be paid 3/4 of NZ wage
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/02/28/93078/fu-wah

How was this even allowed to have happened? Surely someone senior in government approved this? This is a very unsettling precedent being taken here.

Am I biased because my son is an apprentice builder? This strikes me as the most stupid thing I can imagine. Never ever permit foreign workers to be paid under the going rate - it has to be well above otherwise who will bother training Kiwis? How it ought to work: employer really wants foreigners building his building then he can have them but (a) must pay at least going wage (b) must pay for work permits - since 3rd world workers may be tempted to pay the employer just for the chance to get to work in NZ then make the work permit fee a standard say $15 per hour. That would be an incentive to get the best foreign workers not the cheapest.

Most building labour is self-employed? in which case the rates will obviously differ. ie are we comparing apples with apples?

You are dead right on training IMHO there is now way we should be importing cheap labour when we have significant NZers without jobs who with some help can get there.

Its sometimes surprising where former MPs end up working.

"A Chinese development company planning to fly in 200 overseas tradies for an Auckland hotel build are prepared to pay only three-quarters of the normal hourly rate - with further deductions to workers' pay for travel and accommodation".
Fu Wah has communicated with the Council of Trade Unions, and a meeting has taken place between the company’s lawyer, former Alliance MP Matt Robson, and E Tū - the union which represents between 1200 and 1500 construction workers.

Speaking of foreign workers

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/351515/slim-pickings-worker-short...

Hawkes Bay Orchardists said they have less have than half the workers they need, and despite a recruitment campaign, are failing to attract the usual hordes of backpackers they rely on. Bostock human resources manager Vikki Garrett said usually they'd hire about a 100 or so backpackers, but had only managed to recruit 10. Rotten Apple Backpackers owner Jason Heard said his hostel would usually be full at peak harvest time. "We are only half full ... we haven't been full once this season. "I have my suspicions that the growing popularity of freedom camping down South may have something to do with it, but I'm not sure."

Maybe the negative experiences others have had in exploitative labour and conditions in NZ has made it harder to attract people too. Only takes the odd rotten apple, so to speak.

Last year in the kiwifruit industry.

https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/335574/kiwifruit-contractors-cash...

A Labour Inspectorate investigation found at least half of the region's kiwifruit contractors who have been audited or investigated have failed to provide employment contracts or pay the minimum wage. Ross Hart grows green organic kiwifruit in Katikati and said contractors were cashing in on the labour shortage. "The contractors are seizing on the opportunity to take advantage of a failing system and exploit it, and this is nothing new - this has been around for 10 to 15 years in the kiwifruit industry.

Wow...so more than a few rotten kiwifruit.

"As such, these estimates appear to support [previous published academic papers] that [say] high levels of inward migration to New Zealand CAUSE rather than alleviate labour shortages."

So, a self perpetuating cycle - the more we allow to flood into our country, the worse the problem gets. Claims by previous and present politicians that business cannot find labour so the solution is to import more, are a crock.

Yep and Labour have had 100 days to sort that promise but cannot seem to find the time to pick up the phone or write to the immigration department with stricter rules or more points to stem the tide. At what point are they going to start making the excuses like everyone coming in is a builder instead of a Chef !

Yeah if they pay more than a pittance the issue will be a lot less pronounced for them

Source please?

Gubberment need easy target - Bild Howse in Orcland.

Fear not, the government is building 100'000 affordable houses