National leader Christopher Luxon says he is building relationships with NZ First and Act while waiting for special votes to be counted

Incoming-Prime Minister Christopher Luxon does not seem to be in any great rush to get coalition negotiations wrapped up and a new Government sworn in. 

The National Party leader told media on Tuesday that he had been “progressing the relationships and arrangements” with Act and NZ First but didn’t give any more details. 

Luxon wants to keep an ultra-tight lid on any information about the coalition negotiations and has been successful so far. 

“As soon as we have something to say we’ll say it. But for now it's good to build relationships and goodwill,” he told reporters at the Chelsea Sugar Factory.

The preliminary election results do show National and Act in a position to form a Government without New Zealand First, with 61 seats and a wafer thin majority.  

However, most pundits expect the right-leaning coalition to lose at least one seat when special votes are reported next Friday, November 3. 

Luxon’s focus on relationship building could mean detailed negotiations haven’t begun and the three parties are just laying the groundwork for when seat numbers are finalised. 

Remember that during one of the election debates Luxon said he “doesn’t know” Winston Peters? That will have to change before the pair can strike a deal.

Luxon confirmed they had spoken on the phone but Newsroom reported senior MP Todd McClay was handling the initial talks. 

All parties are waiting for the special votes before finalising any arrangements and it is unclear how quickly they could come together once they arrive. 

Weeks, not months

There is no time limit for talks and the parties could negotiate for as long as they need. In 2020, elected representatives in Belgium took almost two years to negotiate a coalition. 

That’s unlikely to happen here with all parties involved relatively well aligned and keen to get on with it, plus two important international meetings could act as a possible time constraint. 

The Pacific Islands Forum and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meetings are both happening in early November and would be a great opportunity for a new Prime Minister to shake some hands.

But the two events run across the two weeks immediately following the release of special votes, meaning Luxon would only have the weekend to hammer out a final agreement before jumping on a plane to the Cook Islands and then to San Francisco.

He told reporters his team was looking into whether he would be able to attend these events as some sort of Prime Minister-designate, if necessary. 

That would obviously delay the swearing in of his new Government by as much as two weeks and could mean it doesn’t happen until December. This is all speculation, of course. 

Luxon has said the only non-negotiable ministerial roles are Prime Minister and Finance Minister (Nicola Willis), so the rest are on the table. 

New Zealand First could want Foreign Affairs and deputy Prime Minister for Winston Peters, Regional Economic Development for Shane Jones, and plausibly Police for Casey Costello. 

Costello had a successful career as a police sergeant and vice-president of the Police Association before running third on NZ First’s party list.

The Act Party could want the newly-created Minister of Regulation for David Seymour, associate Foreign Affairs and Trade for Brooke Van Velden, Agriculture for Andrew Hoggard, and Children for Karen Chhour.

If New Zealand First was kept out of Cabinet, they might get less substantial portfolios such as Racing, Seniors, or Sports.

Leading Labour 

Meanwhile, members of the Labour Party are weighing up how to proceed into opposition and the 2026 election. 

The New Zealand Herald reported former minister David Parker was sounding out a possible bid for the leadership, presumably to set up a progressive policy platform for 2026.

Parker resigned as Revenue Minister earlier this year when Prime Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out the tax reform he designed with Grant Robertson and government officials.

A wealth or capital gains tax would be unlikely if Hipkins stays on as the leader, and so Parker might want to establish a more left-leaning and technocratic set of policies to take into future elections.

One term governments are rare, and so the next leader’s job will be to make life difficult for the new National government and build a party that can win the 2029 election