New polling is offering a sigh of relief for National, pulling the party back up to 32% following its dip below 30% earlier this month.
The latest March Poll from Talbot Mills Research, prepared for corporate clients and obtained by Interest.co.nz, suggests support is sitting at 35% for Labour, 32% for National, 11% for both the Green Party and NZ First, 7% for ACT and 2% for Te Pāti Māori.
It follows Prime Minister Christopher Luxon party’s 28.4% result in the latest Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll released earlier this month. That poll sparked speculation around the security of Luxon’s leadership - which he denied.
The latest political poll gives a hung Parliament. Translated into seats, the right bloc of National on 39 seats, NZ First with 13 and ACT on nine, would have 61 - while the left would have the same amount with Labour on 43, the Greens with 14 and Te Pāti Māori on four.
Asked about the mood of the country, 46% thought it was going in the right direction, 44% thought it was going in the wrong track and 9% were unsure.
When it came to economic conditions, there was a sizeable jump in those who expected it to get worse in the year ahead. In Talbot Mills’ February poll, 29% thought it would get worse - that increased to 38% in the most recent poll, with 27% who thought things would get better, and 30% who expected it to say much the same.
However, there was a slight increase in those polled who thought economic conditions in New Zealander were good/excellent - going up from 30% to 32%, which was still significantly lower than the 67% who considered economic conditions poor/not so good.
On the performance of the current government, 50% approved of the overall performance of the National-led Government and 43% disapproved.
For preferred PM, Labour leader Chris Hipkins remained ahead on 26%, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was on 22%, NZ First leader Winston Peters was at 13%, Green Party leader Chlöe Swarbrick was 8% and ACT leader David Seymour was 6%. Thirteen per cent did not know.
The poll results were from 1059 adult New Zealanders via online surveys between March 2-12, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1% at the 95% confident level.
2 Comments
All the succession of polls are identifying is just how premature they are and how fickle is the base for them.The next lot will likely reactively include a negative impact from the scandal presently engulfing the leader of the opposition. It shouldn’t, because it is a private and sensitive issue, but it will.That in itself simply illustrates that the contributors that would produce such a poll outcome, could hardly be accepted as an accurate representation of the electorate as it will gather and determine, next November,
A lot of news has passed since the polling finished on the 12th of March, a lot of which would likely impact these results - Hipkins ex, Iran ongoing action, household name factory closures (Watties and Greggs). Could look very different next time around
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