Allan Barber thinks 2026 has all the ingredients to be a good one for the rural community

The period over Christmas and the New Year is not usually characterised by major activity, either affecting our lives in general or more specifically international and domestic politics. This is far from the case over the present holiday season, even taking into account the shorter break taken by the rest of the world.

The most dramatic event in recent days has been the American capture and forced extradition of Venezuela’s President Maduro. This action has been compared, for its speed of execution, to the British ousting of the Sultan of Zanzibar in 1896 and, for its contravention of international law, to the removal of Libyan President Gaddafi more recently and the attack on Iraq in 2003.

If anyone believes the claims these invasions were for the claimed benefit of the respective inhabitants as opposed to any commercial ambitions of the invading countries. Trump’s latest flagrant disregard for international law puts the imposition of tariffs on the rest of the world completely in the shade, serving as further warning small countries like New Zealand can expect no favours from the United States.

The other big development, far more favourable to New Zealand interests, in the lead up to the Christmas break was the unexpected announcement of the FTA with India. While gains from this will take time to evolve, the long-term benefits should be far greater than achieving a similar agreement with the United States in the unlikely event this were to happen.

The success of our trade negotiators in finalising the deal with India is somewhat clouded by the uncertainty of achieving a parliamentary majority which is a prerequisite for it to come into force. It is baffling that National did not consult with Labour to ensure bipartisan support when it knew NZ First, specifically Winston Peters, would vote against the FTA because of the deep-rooted objection to freeing up migrant visas for Indian students and concerns at lack of dairy access.

One hopes Labour will see the benefits of voting for the FTA will outweigh the short-term satisfaction of political point scoring. Significant access for beef and dairy was always going to prove impossible for India to include, while the gains for other agricultural produce such as sheep meat, wool, forestry, and horticultural produce will provide opportunities for exporters to reach India’s growing middle class.

One area of the agreement which may cause raised eyebrows is the commitment of US$20 billion in private investment by New Zealand business over 15 years, although non-achievement does not automatically derail the FTA.

Another important development is the announcement by China of a beef quota of 206,000 tonnes, rising to 214,000 tonnes for New Zealand. Although this volume is very close to total beef exports to China in 2023/24, the amount exported last year was nearer 150,000. This quota is more favourable than for some other countries which have seen their totals reduced.

The difference in exports between the two years occurred both because of a large increase in demand from the USA and a decrease in Chinese demand. That said, these are by far the two largest markets with Japan, Canada, and South Korea way behind. We can ill afford to get offside with either country which underlines the difficulty of navigating the choppy waters between them.

It may not please those idealists who would like New Zealand to adopt a more forceful position on issues such as Taiwan and Palestine, but a realistic assessment indicates a more nuanced approach suits our economic status and ambitions.

On a completely different note of reflection over the holiday season, I have both enjoyed and been frustrated by the cricket In Australia and in New Zealand. Seeing the huge crowds for the Ashes tests which have lasted much too short a time for cricket fans and administrators alike, then comparing them with the West Indies series here has been frustrating.

New Zealand crowds would hardly fill half a stand in Australia, regardless of the quality of the cricket. In contrast Australian fans have poured into their grounds in their tens of thousands, on many occasions having to watch dismal batting performances by both sides and superb Australian bowling, culminating in the series being decided before it really got started.

My big cricket hope for this year is for New Zealand to play much better than England did in the Boxing Day test match at the MCG for which the curator is compelled to provide a decent pitch after the two day debacle a couple of weeks ago.

Here’s hoping 2026 brings a continuation of buoyant export prices, no disasters, completion of the FTA with India, and a new government with a workable majority that is favourable to agriculture.