Rabobank updates its view of the implications of the conflict in the Middle East and the projected timeline for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz

Analysts from global rural bank, Rabobank, have been assessing how the US-Iran crisis will play out for their clients. Below are links to two of their updates. This is a summary

On balance, RaboResearch assumes an Iran deal won’t stick – yet – and risks are of further war and/or a longer blockade before resolution.

The new geopolitical base case is therefore no normalisation in Hormuz for up to three months, and the tail risk is US economic statecraft responses with global consequences.

The repercussions of this for energy markets are significant. Futures markets will likely continue to ignore the actual supply reality of what an extended closure means – notably dwindling global inventories, a scramble for alternative supplies at higher prices as competition intensifies and slowly intensifying demand destruction across the board.

A Hormuz closure up until September raises the risk of serious market intervention, through export restrictions, forced reshaping of energy flows and further [temporary] removal of energy sanctions, impeding market pricing signals.

We are therefore raising our price forecast for key energy markets to reflect the prolonged supply disruption on the ground. For Brent crude we now forecast prices to average USD120/bbl in Q3 and USD100/bbl in Q4 2026 before falling back below USD100/bbl throughout 2027. For TTF gas we forecast prices to average €60/MWh in Q3 and rise to the high 60s/MWh in Q4 before dropping back to €50/MWh next year.

Implications for Kiwi food producers

Fuel and freight costs are likely to remain elevated, while fertiliser and input costs remain exposed to global energy dynamics (LNG etc).

This is not only about pricing, it’s also about availability, delivery timing and supply reliability.

Higher global energy and input costs tend to increase global food production costs. Over time, this may provide support for international food prices (to a point).

In simple terms: Cost pressures may be felt first, with potential price support following over the shorter/medium term (longer tail risks may be more volatile).

While uncertainty is expected to remain elevated through the winter months, it’s important to emphasise that New Zealand continues to be a dependable producer of natural whole foods – an advantage that becomes even more significant in a strained global environment.

The two original reports from Rabobank are here and here.