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"The dairy boom is impacting the sheep and beef sector in ways that could never have been envisaged, but most significantly, it is destroying farmers’ self esteem"

Rural News
"The dairy boom is impacting the sheep and beef sector in ways that could never have been envisaged, but most significantly, it is destroying farmers’ self esteem"
The key issue is how to restore confidence in the red meat sector.

Content supplied by KPMG*

The last year has not seen the radical reform of the red meat sector that many commentators have been calling for.

The debate that has taken place over the last year, driven by the Meat Industry Excellence Group, has increased awareness of the sector’s opportunities and challenges.

However the year has also seen more land change use to dairy, and dairy support, in the hope of delivering better financial returns.

The issue facing the red meat sector was summarised in a single, eloquent comment: the dairy boom is impacting the sheep and beef sector in ways that could never have been envisaged, but most significantly, it is destroying farmers’ self esteem.

The impact of low farm profitability on confidence in the industry was a recurring theme in many of our conversations.

There is no quick fix to rebuild belief among farmers.

This requires a shift in culture that needs to be driven by all in the industry.

It was noted that some progress is being made to facilitate cultural change – with initiatives like FarmIQ and the Red Meat Profit Partnership being identified as important steps in the right direction.

It was highlighted by a number of our contributors that the industry situation is not uniform.

There are many farmers and processors that are delivering exceptional results from their businesses.

Successful farmers are improving their pasture, adopting analytical tools and nurturing long term partnerships with the company they supply.

Likewise, successful processors are committed to changing from a transactional relationship with farmers to increase transparency, reduce commoditisation, and grow the overall pie for all industry participants.

They are also innovating across the supply chain to deliver innovative, sustainable and traceable products that meet the needs of the end consumer. term partnerships with the company they supply. **

Likewise, successful processors are committed to changing from a transactional relationship with farmers to increase transparency, reduce commoditisation, and grow the overall pie for all industry participants.

They are also innovating across the supply chain to deliver innovative, sustainable and traceable products that meet the needs of the end consumer.

In our case study, we profile Greenlea Premier Meats, an innovative family-owned company that is successfully growing export markets for premium beef products.

While the concept of a ‘red meat Fonterra’ met with little support during our discussions, the majority of leaders recognised that the industry needs to continue to evolve.

If sector participants are prepared to take a long- term perspective, some of the potential options could include:

› Consolidating processing assets to create an open access toll processing entity was floated as way of securing overhead cost reductions (which are estimated to be between $300 and $500 million per annum), while enabling the industry to cement the efficiency benefits of scale. There are many challenges to implementing consolidation, not least the cost associated with rationalising existing capacity. However there appears to be reasonable consensus around the cost benefits that could be realised and returned to processing companies and the farm gate.

› Some leaders expressed the view that the industry was unlikely to progress without one or more international partners being attracted to invest in the sector. It was suggested that well-capitalised offshore investors can strengthen the balance sheet, as well as bringing market connections and new perspectives. (Though it should be noted an offshore investor does not deliver a guaranteed fix; KPMG analysis suggests less than one in four Mergers & Aquistion transactions actually deliver the expected uplift in value).

› Our beef and sheep meat products have totally different characteristics, yet more often than not they are lumped together as a single sector. Lamb has a dominant position in a high-value, niche sector; while our grass fed beef industry supplies a differentiated niche beef product that represents a small fraction of the global beef supply. The view was expressed that the unique features of each product require a more tailored focus and branding to grow value in each sector, rather than continuing to take a one-size-fits-all approach to red meat products.

› A number of leaders recognised that a key challenge to the financial viability of sheep farmers is the parlous state of the wool sector. They noted that rebuilding farmer confidence is heavily dependent on recovering wool profitability. However with the crash in wool volumes seen over the last six months, achieving a turnaround becomes increasingly challenging, as supply shortages are driving short-term market behaviours.

The continued success of New Zealand’s primary sector is dependent on having strong and viable beef and sheep farming sectors.

A long-term perspective will enable the industry to move beyond survival mode and focus on maximising its potential, rather than looking jealousy over the fence at dairy.

There should be no room for infighting or talking down the industry.

Strong leadership will therefore be critical to establish a new era of engagement, collaboration and trust-based relationships; to enable the industry to succeed through a variety of different routes to market.

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This content is from the KPMG publication "Facilitating Growth in an Uncertain World" volume 1.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

32 Comments

I cannot see how an industry can reboom in a stagnant/declining market.

 

World consuption of sheepmeet has not changed, if not decreased, over the past decade (FAO).

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You have obviously not been following NZ's sheepmeat exports to China recently. In the year to April 2013 they were worth $222 million. In the year to April 2013 they were worth $502 million. In the year to April 2014 they were worth $803 million.

 

By any measure that is not "stagnant/declining" !

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Perhaps the comment refers to tonnage not value.

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.. unless you're on the paleo diet , who needs the red meat ...

 

Baked beans , weetbix , and bananas ... the perfect budget diet ! .... oh yeah , and a single malt whisky to wash it all down ... heh heh haaaaaaaaaa ....

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... 4 minutes ! .... man , you're good ... he takes alot longer than that to snap when I rattle his "peak" cage ...

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Maybe its where you live but I can say Ive seen much no increases in the price of meat in the last 4~5 years since I became a failed vegitarian.  Fish now, yes its gone rocket fuel powered and the quailty rock bottom if its for sale at all.  I'd buy more but 10 days on the shelf at countdown doesnt meet my criteria of "fresh" more like rank.

regards

 

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But I thought life was much harder back then Ivan with all your time spent paying of your 20 % mortgage, mowing the Qtr acre by hand, and walking everywhere?

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You walked everywhere in the 70s? how quaint, living in the 3rd world somewhere?

regards

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So if you walk everywhere (Ie dont drive), you live in the third world....crickey, thats news to me?

 

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Ive really noticed the price rise of fish in the last 2~3 years.  Its now sold offshore at a high price so we get the dregs if we are lucky IMHO.  The Govn seems to think NZers paying international prices on NZ wages is A OK, and Corporations think the same way, "we can go into NZ and screw the consumers over, electricity is too cheap for them"  Fonterra on milk products, same thing, the NZ meat industry would like the same leverage. This so called global free markets and open economy is wearing off me, big time.

regards

 

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So steven, are you suggesting that producers should be subsidising the cost of food to the masses.  If they can sell their product to Y for X, why should they sell it for less on the home market? You don't have to buy NZ meat etc.  There is Australian meat available in some supermarkets, fish from China and pork from Canada. Farmers are price takers, supermarkets are price setters.  Perhaps you should be castigating the supermarkets rather than hammering on farmers all the time?  As Belle implied, people make choices about how they spend their dollar. I know of many young farmers progressing in the industry who don't have Sky TV because of the cost, yet I know of none of their urban counterparts who don't.

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In many countries if the government requires compliance to certain rules then a steady payment is made to cover at least some of the cost involved in "public demand". 

These payments for consumer requests are called "subsidies".

In NZ the idea seems to be the opposite, to punish and cripple successful industries with tax and compliance issues

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Ah....CO......the watermelons would like a litre of milk and kg of meat.....as a daily allowance. They have their own interpretation of the free-market!

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Back then a Philip K9 26" colour TV would set you back a cool $1600 (and 3mth wait),   a mid-level manager at govt department earned a cool $24,000/year. Admittedly a nice 3br home in Ngaio (Wellington) cost $72,000.

These days, a 50" LCD TV; $1000, mid-level manager $120K and a 3br home in Nagio.. 5-600K..?

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You're right there Steven, I don't think people realise anymore now that if fish smells of fish then its not fresh. Getting past the fish counter of most supermarkets these days requires a peg on one's nose

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Ive pretty much stopped buying fish. Heading back to chicken and beef, at least its a reasonable price and NZ grown.

regards

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Whats Many? Perhaps I can generalise too. A little less beer wine smokes and coke, and you might put some steak on the table. Try some chuck. Tough but its the tastiest cut. Shoulder lamb chops, cheaper and sweeter. Corned beef is regularly a special in the supermarket. If you bother to shop wisely its reasonably priced.

 

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Forget meat...

Currently, 2 billion people eat insects around the world, primarily in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where the practice has a thousand-year precedent

Insects need 12 times less feed than cattle, four times less than sheep, and half as much as pigs and broiler chickens to produce the same amount of protein

http://qz.com/84127/five-reasons-we-should-all-be-eating-insects/#84127/five-reasons-we-should-all-be-eating-insects/

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How about we slam the breaks on population growth - 80 000 000 extra people PER YEAR.

 

I am NOT going to start eating crickets and spiders!

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... yeah , but even if we manage to limit world population growth to just 80 000 000 extra people PER YEAR , how do we stop them from all wanting to live in Auckland ?

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The world, and last time I looked NZ was part of it, needs LESS people not more. I presume you meant 80,000 not 80,000,000

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then start eating algae

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Yes the dairy farmers have me slashing my wrists. It is so hard to keep up. I owe so little compared to them. My taxable income is so damn high as I have very little expenditure to write the damn stuff off. I hate how I dont have to be here morning and night to milk. And I am so dirty cos I dont require that twice daily shower. It is so annoying that the average towny still likes me as they see sheep farming as quaint. The blasted meat works are paying far too much for my stock at the moment cos there arent many left supplying them. Lastly I never hear from the bank. I feel so left out. They dont want an update on my cashflow every month, or a set of accounts every year. They have just left me alone, all alone. Its so tough being a sheep and beef farmer. I think I will go get councilling.

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Brilliant!

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Hi Belle

 Whats the beef schedule up to? I have  rising 2yr bulls on the farm and running the place from here, with a bit of help from technology and a friend.  

 If I sell my good bulls, whats the margin like? or should I carry them to spring? My farm nearly grows all year so I can probably sneak through to spring.

 

 My fear is China, lots happening , like a spinning top slowing down getting the wobbles. They are taking so much of our meat and milk that they bloody near own us.

 Has milk powder being re-hypothecated  and your meat?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-10/chinas-evaporated-collateral-s…

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OK Aj this is my third go at this. It disappears into the ether. $4.50 to $4.60 plus for the bulls. $2.10 thereabouts for replacements. Great margin. Take the money and run or wait for spring when the schedule higher, but replacements ...who knows. I have to ask, how do you farm bulls from thousands of kms away. Drone technology??

China. Intriguing. Watching the copper financing with interest to see how it develops. God help us if they have done it with the milk powder and or meat.

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unspun comments & thoughts are in short supply

This seems to point that the ever upward is not on, however 30% or there abouts is still big as...

 

China imported 1.52 million tons of dairy products from January to November 2013, up 35.7 percent, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. New Zealand made up the lion's share, at 86 percent, of all imports.

The over-reliance on exports has made China vulnerable to quality loopholes from foreign dairy vendors. The food safety regulatory administrations of China and New Zealand signed an agreement in early November to strengthen cooperation in food safety and quality, three months after elevated levels of nitrates were found in New Zealand milk exports.

To restore customer confidence and fend off foreign competition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in October it aimed to reduce the number of domestic milk powder manufacturers to 50 from 127.

The government vowed to nurture 10 large-scale dairy entities with an annual income of more than 2 billion yuan to make up in excess of 70 percent of the market in five years.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co Ltd, China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd and Bright Dairy & Food Co Ltd hold a dominant share of the milk industry as larger operators seize control of the market and scoop up smaller players, according to estimates from Euromonitor International.

A severe shortage of raw milk in China will force companies to step up consolidation along the value chain. In 2013, the supply shortage exceeded 4 million tons compared with 1.7 million tons in 2010, consultancy Fitch Ratings said in November.

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-03/05/content_17324891.htm

 

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 Henry, as my children say ' its all fun and games until someone loses an eye.'

 

 France gets ready for the GAP to be restructured.

Chinese dairy firm Synutra is building a multimillion-dollar milk factory in France. It wants to produce as much as 100,000 tons of dried milk a year for export to China. Ruth Bender finds out what the locals think about the factory.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB100014240527023033699045794205919…

 Also so China is adding 500, 000 new cows a year, I don't know if California can keep shipping the feed, maybe we should get in on the Alfa Alfa to China game. Its compressed into small blocks and shipped. Some goes out in small bales.

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and could be repeated across France and Europe....

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1huees_why-china-wants-to-employ-french-cows_news

 

Water runs up hill real esy with enough money pushing it

USA exporting water

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EPkXB8MATo

 

and no palm in sight/on site.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B7JyJIjR3g8

 

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Thanks Belle, I use my friends telephone gadget and Whats app, he sends me video and I decide what needs to be done. I got the cattle super cheap at the end of the last drought, I arrived home just in time to an empty farm with feed all over it, perfect timing. Im thinking of keeping doing the same thing, leave it empty if stock gets cheap buy if it doesn't wait it out.

 Thanks for the info, look like Im going to be cleaning out the bulls and restocking. Im so over flying but get home next Wednesday, we are then thinking of going to Europe where at least I can work, just a thought at the moment, I have friends who run a farming  business in Solvakia. 

 The other thing in our minds is we have children at school and they keep getting these school shooting which are randome and unsettling. My children have already had two 'lockdowns' and Im worried about the 'empire of fear', rubbing off on my children. Im ready to come home but my English wife wants some time with her mother. I've done some shearing around here and talked to a few farmers , its always a Visa issue and I need to set my self up as a consultant and somehow avoid being a tax payer here. Not impossible but Im not that motivated.

 Chicken prices here have rocketed up with the beef price and now they have a huge shortage of breeders.  Chicken prices are giving a huge incentive to producers to go for it. California is drying off fast, we just had our first heatwave, dams are emptying  fast.

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Loved your comment Belle. :-)  I was talking to a NI sheepfarmer recently and they felt that sheep have turned a positive corner and they were quite upbeat about the industry.  They have been in the game for a long time, so it wasn't some starry eyed newbie. 

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China is the be all and end all I think. They are taking anything that looks like a sheep. I hear they are equally desperate for our beef. We shall see if it pans out, but for now it looks frighteningly good. There are significant margins with store stock cheap, finished stock expensive. The dry conditions for much of the north. Excess calves reared. Dairy going gangbusters and taking all available finishing land. Leaves the finisher in prime position to rake it in. If you have grass, and many dont this winter (and last). Its quite a conundrum. Hard to figure exactly where the market is going to go. It seems that the peaks and troughs for store stock are becoming exaggerated. The weather is so fickle, and everyone nervous.

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