Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

8 years 2 months

Latest articles

Surprise Index at 6-yr low

Markets vulnerable to over-reaction if positive data returns. Mood of central bankers may be turning more hawkish. Local rates chase US rates higher

19th Jun 17, 8:13am

by Jason Wong

Markets vulnerable to over-reaction if positive data returns. Mood of central bankers may be turning more hawkish. Local rates chase US rates higher

NZDUSD testing 0.7250 resistance level

NZDUSD gained 0.6% last week, RBNZ OCR review this week is expected to have little surprise; USD unwinds some post-FOMC gains and nudged lower on weaker than expected data

19th Jun 17, 8:06am

by Jason Wong

NZDUSD gained 0.6% last week, RBNZ OCR review this week is expected to have little surprise; USD unwinds some post-FOMC gains and nudged lower on weaker than expected data

UST rates higher across curve

Expect a modest bounce in local rates today following Wall Street moves. Markets underpricing future Fed rises

16th Jun 17, 8:26am

by Jason Wong

Expect a modest bounce in local rates today following Wall Street moves. Markets underpricing future Fed rises

NZD falls back to the 0.7200 USD mark

NZD lower on weaker than expected GDP data and stronger USD; USD up as markets continue to digest FOMC statement; AUD well supported after employment data, currently at 0.7580 USD

16th Jun 17, 7:55am

by Jason Wong

NZD lower on weaker than expected GDP data and stronger USD; USD up as markets continue to digest FOMC statement; AUD well supported after employment data, currently at 0.7580 USD

NZD breaks through 0.7250 USD

NZD reached a high of 0.7318 USD before moving back down to 0.7255; GBP underperforms; CAD underperforms as oil prices fall to lowest level in a month

15th Jun 17, 8:23am

by Jason Wong

NZD reached a high of 0.7318 USD before moving back down to 0.7255; GBP underperforms; CAD underperforms as oil prices fall to lowest level in a month

A spanner in the works?

US Fed holds to its optimistic outlook even as data sags. Indications are for four more hikes in this cycle and at least one more this year

15th Jun 17, 8:06am

by Jason Wong

US Fed holds to its optimistic outlook even as data sags. Indications are for four more hikes in this cycle and at least one more this year

Markets under-pricing higher rates?

US rate hike may see fewer following if markets are picking it correctly, even as dot-plot influence changes. QE windback influences rising in importance

14th Jun 17, 8:17am

by Jason Wong

US rate hike may see fewer following if markets are picking it correctly, even as dot-plot influence changes. QE windback influences rising in importance

NZD nudges up to 0.7225

NZD looking at the 0.7250 resistance level; GBP recovers and CAD continues to outperform; other majors quiet against the USD

14th Jun 17, 8:00am

by Jason Wong

NZD looking at the 0.7250 resistance level; GBP recovers and CAD continues to outperform; other majors quiet against the USD

NZD and local rates stable

NZD consolidates around the 0.7200 USD level; GBP remains under pressure and CAD outperforms; UK yields down; US and local rates stable

13th Jun 17, 8:08am

by Jason Wong

NZD consolidates around the 0.7200 USD level; GBP remains under pressure and CAD outperforms; UK yields down; US and local rates stable

Very low volatility index moves, raising eyebrows

Little market reaction to UK election, US Fed rate hike all priced in, NZ swap-bond spreads streched, so narrowing is due

12th Jun 17, 9:04am

by Jason Wong

Little market reaction to UK election, US Fed rate hike all priced in, NZ swap-bond spreads streched, so narrowing is due

GBP plunges

NZD traded a 25 point range against the USD and ended at 0.7210; GBP weaker on surprise election result, NZD up 1.6% against the GBP; currencies, other than GBP, close within 0.2% versus the USD

12th Jun 17, 8:03am

by Jason Wong

NZD traded a 25 point range against the USD and ended at 0.7210; GBP weaker on surprise election result, NZD up 1.6% against the GBP; currencies, other than GBP, close within 0.2% versus the USD

Diverging

Politics in Italy, the ECB stance, polling in the UK, and testimony in the US all push rates in various directions. There are no local influences on NZ rates

9th Jun 17, 8:20am

by Jason Wong

Politics in Italy, the ECB stance, polling in the UK, and testimony in the US all push rates in various directions. There are no local influences on NZ rates

NZD continues to outperform

NZD and USD stronger amidst modest market movements; ECB policy assessment sees risks to economic growth as "broadly balanced", up from "negative"; AUD stable around 0.7550 USD

9th Jun 17, 7:52am

by Jason Wong

NZD and USD stronger amidst modest market movements; ECB policy assessment sees risks to economic growth as "broadly balanced", up from "negative"; AUD stable around 0.7550 USD

Nudging up

NZ bond prices rise even as AU and US bond prices fall. Expect local yields to rise today

8th Jun 17, 8:21am

by Jason Wong

NZ bond prices rise even as AU and US bond prices fall. Expect local yields to rise today

CAD and AUD book-end the currency leader board

NZD rangebound and saw some resistance just above the 0.7200 USD mark; CAD weaker on lower oil prices and AUD higher on economic data; EUR saw some volatility after ECB draft projections show CPI at around 1.5%

8th Jun 17, 8:00am

by Jason Wong

USD weaker against most majors

NZD trading just above the 0.7200 USD mark; USDJPY down 1% as traders offload risk prior to key events on Thursday; AUD pushed through the 0.7500 USD mark but is 0.4% lower against the NZD

7th Jun 17, 8:05am

by Jason Wong

NZD trading just above the 0.7200 USD mark; USDJPY down 1% as traders offload risk prior to key events on Thursday; AUD pushed through the 0.7500 USD mark but is 0.4% lower against the NZD

Falls across the board

Conditions are ripe for further downside pressure in short term interest rates as LIBOR-OIS spreads in the US contract

7th Jun 17, 7:46am

by Jason Wong

Conditions are ripe for further downside pressure in short term interest rates as LIBOR-OIS spreads in the US contract

US data caps upside to yields

With the UST 10yr at 2.18% and little change to Aussie bond futures, the chance of local rates making any big moves is limited

6th Jun 17, 8:36am

by Jason Wong

With the UST 10yr at 2.18% and little change to Aussie bond futures, the chance of local rates making any big moves is limited

NZD consolidates above 0.7100 USD

USD weaker on weaker than expected employment data; AUD outperforms as data shows strong inventories and company profits; GBP was a solid performer prior to Thursday's election

6th Jun 17, 8:19am

by Jason Wong

USD weaker on weaker than expected employment data; AUD outperforms as data shows strong inventories and company profits; GBP was a solid performer prior to Thursday's election

Small movement in rates despite positive economic news

UST 10yr rate traded in a 2.20-2.24% range and currently sits around 2.22%; 90% chance of June rate hike priced in by the market; local rates make fresh lows for longer term rates

2nd Jun 17, 8:32am

by Jason Wong

UST 10yr rate traded in a 2.20-2.24% range and currently sits around 2.22%; 90% chance of June rate hike priced in by the market; local rates make fresh lows for longer term rates

USD tops leaderboard

NZD drops below the 0.7100 USD mark, now trading at 0.7065; USD supported by positive US economic news and Fed speakers affirming rate hike plan; AUD bottom of the leaderboard, down to 0.7380 USD, NZDAUD trading at 0.9570

2nd Jun 17, 8:21am

by Jason Wong

NZ long term rates reached fresh lows for the year

UST rates continue to drift lower, 10yr rate down 1 bps to 2.20%; speculators are long the US 10yr futures and with rates close to their year-to-date low, the market is backing that Fed will back down from its policy guidance on rate hikes

1st Jun 17, 8:39am

by Jason Wong

NZD holds as commodity currencies underperform

Oil down 3% as traders lose conviction that production cuts will reduce inventory, CAD and AUD down about 0.4%; NZD trading at 0.71 USD mark, on track to be the best performing currency for the month

1st Jun 17, 8:33am

by Jason Wong

Oil down 3% as traders lose conviction that production cuts will reduce inventory, CAD and AUD down about 0.4%; NZD trading at 0.71 USD mark, on track to be the best performing currency for the month

UST yields slip

CFTC data shows the largest net long positioning in US10s futures in nearly 10 years, but perhaps there is upside as softness already priced

31st May 17, 8:08am

by Jason Wong

CFTC data shows the largest net long positioning in US10s futures in nearly 10 years, but perhaps there is upside as softness already priced

NZD drifts upwards to 0.71 USD

USD on a modest downward trend since last evening, TWI down 0.2%; despite weak inflation data, the market is still pricing in an 84% chance of a Fed rate hike next month; German inflation slowed more than expected

31st May 17, 7:58am

by Jason Wong