What happened Thursday

Business / news

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; floating rate increases from OCR hike, Fonterra raises payout forecast, incomes rose faster than inflation, swaps firm, NZD firm, & more

24th Feb 22, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ kicked off the floating rate increases after yesterday's OCR rise, taking their main floating rate to 5.04%. More here. On the other hand, Westpac has raised its floating rate by only +15 bps, but that takes it to 5.24%. China Construction Bank raised theirs to 3.95%. Bank of China raised most of their fixed rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ANZ also increased some savings account rates, also following the OCR rise. Westpac raised their bonus saver by +15 bps.

CREAMING IT
Fonterra raised its milk payout forecast again today, taking the midpoint to $9.60/kgMS, a new record high, and indicating a $14 bln payout to its farmer suppliers for the current season.

LENDING GROWS FASTER THAN PROFITS
Kiwibank reported lending growth up 20% for the half year, driven by the strong housing market and solid demand, and profit growth up[ +16% to $64 mln.

SELLER OFFERS UP, HAMMER SALES LOW
Nationwide, house auction numbers were up last week (to 386 from under 300) but the national auction hammer success rate held steady at 41%. The specialised Auckland CBD apartment market remains very subdued.

VIVIER IN LIQUIDATION
The unregulated New Zealand banking services provider Vivier and Company Ltd was placed into liquidation on Thursday at the High Court in Christchurch. Damien Grant and Gregory Sherriff of Waterstone Insolvency were appointed liquidators. The liquidation comes at the behest of Mubashir Qasim, trustee of the FKC Private Trust, who is seeking to recover about $2.3 million in principal and interest following an investment with Vivier in 2019. There's more on Vivier here.

MARKET HAS TURNED
'The housing boom has ended,' Westpac economists declared, with price falls now the order of the day.

MAJOR LIQUIDITY STRESS
Air New Zealand (AIR, #33) said it has now drawn down $760 mln in borrowings from the Government as it continues to burn cash. It anticipates a loss for the year of over $800 mln, and is planning a capital raising soon. How keen will their major shareholder be?

NEW MORE TOLERANT PHASE
New Zealand to move to phase 3 of Omicron response plan at 11:59pm Thursday (tonight). That will mean only confirmed cases & their household contacts must isolate.

INCOMES RISE FASTER THAN INFLATION
In a very large 16,000 sample used in the 2021 Household Economic Survey that dives deep into household budgets (I know because I was a participant in an earlier year), these results were released today. It showed average annual household income (gross) increased from $105,701 to $110,451 (up +4.5%), average annual household equivalised disposable income (after tax and transfer payments) increased from $47,727 to $50,164 (up +5.1%), average weekly housing costs increased +2.5% from $340.00 to $348.60, total mortgage payments were unchanged while for those paying rent, the average weekly spend on rent increased +5.4%, from $372.30 to $392.30. In the year to June 2021 (the same as the HES), the CPI rose +3.3%.

MISSED THE TARGET, LEAVING 35,700 EXTRA CHILDREN IN POVERTY
Stats NZ released the June 2021 child poverty data update today. At that date, almost 14% of (156,700) lived in households with less than 50% of the median equivalised disposable household income before deducting housing costs. This was a decrease over three years from almost 17% (183,400 children) in the year ended June 2018. The intermediate target of a reduction to 10.5% (121,000) for this measure was not met.

LATEST BOND TENDER UPDATE
Treasury's Debt Management Office tendered two $100 mln bonds today. The May 2032 one brought out 29 bidders who bid $260 mln and 13 won something, at an average yield of 2.81% pa, up from 2.74% two weeks ago. The April 2037 bond attracted 28 bidders who bid $295 mln, but only 4 bidders won anything at an average of 3.02%, up from 2.96% last time.

TAME PAY INCREASE
In Australia, average full-time weekly earnings rose only +2.1% in the year to November 2021.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been 8,271 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 99,851 active locally-acquired cases, and another 12 daily deaths. There are now 1,211 in hospital there and holding stubbornly. In Victoria they reported 6,715 more new infections yesterday. There are now 41,257 active cases in that state - and there were also 16 daily deaths there. Queensland is reporting 6,094 new cases and 8 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have risen to 1958 yesterday and no more deaths. The ACT has 946 new cases and no deaths, and Tasmania 842 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, about 25,000 new cases have been reported so far today although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 8 cases stopped at the border, plus 6137 (not a typo, includes positive RATs) new cases reported in the community, yet another new record.

GOLD UP
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1913 and up +US$9 from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES FALL SHARPLY
The S&P500 ended down -1.8% in its Wednesday session after growing selloff. Tokyo is down more than -1.0% after their one-day holiday. Hong Kong has opened down -1.8%. Shanghai has opened down -0.3%. The ASX200 is down -2.7% in early afternoon trade in a very big selloff and accentuating the afterhours Wall Street concerns about the Ukraine invasion. The NZX50 is down -1.5% late in the session, in sympathy.

SWAPS RISE TODAY
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have risen again today but only by a few bps mostly at the short end (2yr +5 bps). The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 1.24%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -4 bps from yesterday to 2.22%. The China Govt 10yr is down -2 bps at 2.83%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.81% (down -3 bps from this time yesterday) and now just above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.84% (up +9 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.96%, a +2 bps rise.

NZ DOLLAR SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is marginally lower this time yesterday, now at 67.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firm by almost +½c again, now at 59.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is firmer at 72 and little-changed in a day.

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BITCOIN SLIPS
Bitcoin is lower today, now at US$36,810 and -3.4% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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87 Comments

by Brock Landers | 24th Feb 22, 4:07pm 1645672043

Old mate Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine a few minutes ago. For "demilitarization and denazification".

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Feb 22, 4:15pm 1645672559

The West Will Ignore Putin’s Weary Anger At Its Peril. | The Daily Blog

an interesting perspective from Chris Trotter suggesting that history is on Putins side & the West have only themselves to blame

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 4:54pm 1645674871

This is the worst possible outcome for most of us. Already challenging times ahead with covid, inflation, supply shortages, asset bubbles and the start of a rate cycle. The sanctions will hurt everyone and we will be lucky if the US stops at sanctions.

On a positive note for the first time ever I have found some common ground with Trotter, anything is possible.

by northman46 | 24th Feb 22, 5:46pm 1645677978

Already challenging times ahead with covid, inflation, supply shortages, asset bubbles and the start of a rate cycle.

I'm sure the importance of the timing hasn't been lost on Putin.

by MLSmith1 | 24th Feb 22, 7:39pm 1645684755

Tis what I posted yesterday… watch oil go higher

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 4:45pm 1645674335

Putin is playing Ukraine like Hitler played Czechoslovakia, commencing with the Sudetenland. Unless the “allies” are prepared to act, let’s say more aggressively than UK PM Chamberlain, Ukraine is destined to be absorbed back into Russia. Hitler’s bluff. Putin’s bluff. What will be the difference, if any? Stakes are high. Over in the Far East, China observes with high interest. Weighs up its opportunities, on offer. Nepal, Bhutan, even Mongolia but more likely in the same scenario Putin has created, vassal Nth Korea is pushed into Sth Korea. The rats are getting amongst the chickens aren’t they.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 5:32pm 1645677134

His stated goal is the De-militarization of Ukraine and the De-Nazification of Ukraine, so more like an anti Hitler.

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 5:42pm 1645677741

“An attack on the German Ruhr area through Belgium and Holland was in the process of being forestalled by the Wehrmacht, whose advance into Luxembourg, Holland and Belgium was essential to ensure the neutrality of these countries with all the Reich’s military means of power.” Thus quoth Nazi Foreign Minister, Von Ribbentrop, Berlin 05.00 hours May 10 1940. Sounds rather familiar doesn’t it. What Putin says has as much concern to the truth, as to what Hitler’s words did.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 5:43pm 1645677792

You think Putin is lying about his objectives?

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 5:50pm 1645678254

Why on earth would he see it as necessary to tell the truth. These are high stakes, why show your hand. It’s the cards under the table that will count in the end game.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 6:37pm 1645681066

Why lie? He is confidant he can achieve his objectives and sanctions will be about as effective as pssng in the wind and about as pleasant.

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 8:01pm 1645686099

WJ, why that is what you might glean from the Junior Woodchuck manual isn’t it. Try instead Aeschylus 500 BC - The First Casualty of War is Truth. Now over the intervening period, consider why that axiom has hardly ever been contradicted, if not ever.

by The Person | 24th Feb 22, 7:57pm 1645685859

You think Putin was telling the truth when he said all this talk of an invasion was western hysteria?

"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims that Russia was preparing an incursion.

"This hysteria is being intentionally whipped up," Peskov told state television in remarks broadcast on Sunday.

"We are being accused of some sort of unusual military activity on our territory by those who brought in their troops from across the ocean," he added, pointing to the US."

by Zachary Smith | 24th Feb 22, 5:47pm 1645678030

It's NATO that is aggressively expanding into the Russian sphere though.

All these WW2 precedents have had their day really and are not helpful. It's just pro war propaganda.

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 6:01pm 1645678894

Sure NATO has expanded & likely Sweden & Finland will expand it even further. What is different here is that this is, for the first time, old Soviet territory being proposed & Russia believes it was given assurances that these were not to be even considered as candidates. Putin is hardly likely to be amused to see what was once a buffer likely being removed. Already NATO, Turkey, Baltic States are hard up against his border. So yes agree 1939/40 is history but my comment is more about those same tactics now being employed, replayed towards a strategic end.

by Nzdano | 24th Feb 22, 6:39pm 1645681195

In the 90s Ukraine gave up it's nukes in return for a security guarantee from Russia and others.

They must be regretting it now.

Putin is the one breaking promises.

by The Person | 24th Feb 22, 8:02pm 1645686123

Go ask the Estonians if they would like to be in the Russian or Nato sphere? They are sovereign countries and should be free to choose whos bed they get into. If Putin wants to rollback Nato expansion, invading your neighbours is the wrong move. You think Poland wants to leave Nato now?

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 8:17pm 1645687059

That’s different. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania were ceded to Russia by Sweden in the 18th century. Post WW1 along with Finland they became independent states. Led by Estonia they then had to fight off the Bolsheviks to remain as such. WW2 saw them swamped by the Nazis one way & then the Soviets on the way back. But they subsequently resumed independence along with a reduced Finland. That is none of those four nations were ever part of the USSR. On the other hand, Ukraine was part of the USSR until the dissolution that Gorbachev failed to stop. Additionally those three Baltic States along with Poland are now in NATO, under that umbrella.

by Noncents | 24th Feb 22, 8:46pm 1645688792

While not part of Russia. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were all recognised as part of the USSR from 1944 - 1988. It wasn't until the singing revolution after the fall of the Berlin Wall that they gained back their full independence.

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 9:03pm 1645689831

Yes that was the Warsaw Pact wasn’t it. Including Poland, Rumania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia. The latter two you will recall were invaded by the Soviets to bring them to heel. All of those now too in NATO but none of them ever in the USSR. That is the difference. That is where Putin has drawn his line in the sand. The west has really dropped Ukraine in it, by advancing them in brinkmanship, but leaving them exposed. In other words if you promote the risk of joining NATO then it is disingenuous not to then offer the protection of NATO. Not only has Putin stared them down, he has called their bluff as soon as he had shored up his security by an alliance with China, economically, militarily. Sound familiar. Here we go again. What did Adolf do before he moved on Poland, that is the non aggression pact with The Soviet Union.

by The Person | 24th Feb 22, 10:04pm 1645693466

Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, like Ukraine, were all part of the USSR

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_the_Soviet_Union

You're probably thinking of the Russian Imperial Empire.

by The Person | 24th Feb 22, 9:09pm 1645690176

And it's laughable to claim that the warsaw pact countries "resumed independence along with a reduced Finland."

by Clementé | 24th Feb 22, 4:29pm 1645673369

Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen,” according to Reuters.

by Audaxes | 24th Feb 22, 4:53pm 1645674825

President Joe Biden has no plans to deploy American troops to fight Russians in Ukraine, the White House said, doubling down on the previous assertions by US officials that Washington won’t go to war with Moscow. “That is not a decision the president is going to make. We are not going to be in a war with Russia or putting military troops on the ground fighting Russia,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday. When repeatedly grilled by a reporter if there is a chance the US military’s boots would land on the Ukrainian soil if Russia moves to claim “all” of Kiev’s territory, Psaki reiterated: “I don’t know how many more times I can say it. There is no scenario – the president is not sending US troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia.” Link

by DTRH | 24th Feb 22, 5:11pm 1645675893

This lady has said so many times things won’t happen next week it changes. Would not put my trust in anything Psaki says

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 5:19pm 1645676370

Our Foreign Minister Mahuta is in Paris. Just three hours flight time. What a stroke of luck for world affairs in crisis. She has announced already, that a “significant step’” has been taken to call in and berate the Russian ambassador. Now opportune to finish it up undoubtedly.

by waymad | 24th Feb 22, 5:36pm 1645677384

Possibly gonna clip the Ambassador upside the head with a dampish karaka leaf....

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 5:46pm 1645678010

Suggest, if really to turn the frighteners on, the seductive approach would do the trick.

by Brock Landers | 24th Feb 22, 8:28pm 1645687714

That's kept strictly in the family.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 5:20pm 1645676409

I guess you have to trust in the power of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. It kinda puts our problems into a different perspective though, lucky our problems are just mandates and house prices and not death from above.

by kiwichas | 24th Feb 22, 10:20pm 1645694431

"I don’t know how many more times I can say it. There is no scenario – the president is not sending US troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia.”

That was a green light for Putin, and a colossal own goal for Biden, rather like April Glaspies's famous green light to Saddam.

Smells of appeasement.

I'm rather worried lying KGB thug Putin will not stop with Ukraine; he has basically threatened to nuke anyone that he chooses, banking on the West not wanting to start a nuclear war over each European country he nobbles..Could be the flaw in "mutually assured destruction"

As Bush would say, "don't misunderestimate me" ;don't underestimate this modern Hitler, who felt he had so little time left in this world to go down in history; Putin is older.

by Noncents | 25th Feb 22, 7:11am 1645726268

He may expand into Moldova as well, but the rest of the neighbouring countries are either EU, NATO, or Both. So Europe and/or US will have no choice but to intervene.

by Notgreedykiwi | 24th Feb 22, 4:54pm 1645674843

Ohh well. A century ago we had a big war.

So humans have forgotten what it means and want it again.

And it's the Europe again.. May be that continent love fighting for population control?

by RickStrauss | 24th Feb 22, 5:16pm 1645676178

A few years before that a century conservatives who thought they pulled the strings elected a useful idiot who got away on them too, so it's not the first parallel...

by Yvil | 24th Feb 22, 6:19pm 1645679976

… because countries outside of Europe don't engage in war???

by Carlos67 | 24th Feb 22, 6:41pm 1645681290

Yeah it kind of makes you puke when the USA gets on TV or even the UN and starts going on about the casualties already in the Ukraine. USA went into Iraq under totally false pretenses or you could call it the biggest false flag operation in history and couple of hundred thousand civilians got killed and nobody batted an eyelid.

by Waikatohome | 24th Feb 22, 8:57pm 1645689443

Didn’t the US back neo nazis to overthrow the Ukrainian government in a 2014 Coup? Putin annexed Crimea in reaction to this. There has been a proxy war in Ukraine for the past 8 years. Not sure how tolerant the US would be if Russia did the same on their doorstep. I just feel really sorry for the civilians caught up in these Cold War games. One good thing about Trump was that there were no wars started during his presidency.

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 9:15pm 1645690516

Would suggest that Trump, possibly unbeknown to himself, had great strength in unpredictability. Just what might he do in a fit of pique after a bad round of golf. The out of the blue hard air strike on a Syrian air base, chemical weapons seemingly, did serve some notice of that in terms of consequences that might fly in.

by nigelh | 24th Feb 22, 9:16pm 1645690606

"Didn’t the US back neo nazis to overthrow the Ukrainian government in a 2014 Coup?"

I understood the same but it could be Russian propaganda at that time on the other hand wouldn't put it past the CIA influencing matters.

by Waikatohome | 24th Feb 22, 9:59pm 1645693196

It’s hard to know who to trust. The UK and USA used non existent weapons of mass destruction as a pretext to invade Iraq. Russia claims to be acting in self defence in Ukraine. No one will win from a large conflict apart from the weapons manufacturers. Hopefully there are some peace brokers in all of this.

by sharetrader | 25th Feb 22, 12:32am 1645702327

but mike hosking said the other day putin will not invade the ukraine he is just sabre rattling.

as for the west helping out ukraine they wont. all they will do is blah blah blah

by Te Kooti | 24th Feb 22, 4:10pm 1645672201

Retired Poppy resurfaced, surely that's worth a mention?

by rastus1 | 24th Feb 22, 9:58pm 1645693085

Good to hear. Time will prove him correct.

by Solve_it | 24th Feb 22, 10:28pm 1645694911

I've heard so much about him / her. Can't wait to see the posts.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Feb 22, 4:12pm 1645672367

"New Zealand to move to phase 3 of Omicron response plan at 11:59pm Thursday (tonight). That will mean only confirmed cases & their household contacts must isolate." AND anyone fully vaccinated arriving from Oz/overseas.

Domestic cases today = over 6000 cases

International cases today = 8 (0.13% of total cases today)

Blanket border isolation on arrival is clearly a hypocritic virtue signalling nonsense entirely aimed at spinning the Govts political "we're protecting you" message.

by EdwardD | 24th Feb 22, 4:52pm 1645674763

I wish we had a comedian like Fred Dagg around today. I see a great skit here.

"We were at Level 1, but now it's a red traffic light, phase 3 - are you keeping up?"

"Please keep using the QR code covid tracking system, but the data is so great now, you may not be contacted unless you are at an important place of interest".

"Unless you are feeling REALLY unwell, please don't get tested as your test may not be processed in time".

TL:DR - you're on your own, good luck

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 6:26pm 1645680401

Well certainly QR to seperate out, identify & trace all the Trevors, likely to blow the whole damn shooting box apart!

by Foxglove. | 24th Feb 22, 4:16pm 1645672579

Used to use bonus bonds as a parking spot for funds that might be needed in a hurry. So now in ANZ Serious Saver. With some self irony note the return is better. But of course that “life changer” element no longer exists. And thus the gambler broke even.

by RickStrauss | 24th Feb 22, 4:43pm 1645674220

I had a wee bit in Bonus Bonds for the same and also for a laugh. Funnily enough, it did better from regular winnings than a bank savings account.

by CWBW | 24th Feb 22, 4:27pm 1645673248

Actually,

The NZ50 is down 2.39% at this very moment and still sinking.
The NZD is being sold off again (@0.6725) and we're back at where we started before the optimistic buy post-RBNZ announcement yesterday.
Bitcoin is down 7.63% since the day began for NZ and looks like it has still a long way to go.
WTI F/M is USD $94.54 up 2.68% - looks like the dream of $100/bbl is within reach!
If Barfoot and Thompson's numbers are right, we may see a double digit growth in median prices for Auckland this month provided the next few days forges ahead.

Oil and real estate are the shinning stars in turbulent times like these- outperforming every asset including cash.

by dumbthoughts | 24th Feb 22, 4:23pm 1645672987

Vladimir you absolute toilet.

by DaveB1978 | 24th Feb 22, 4:38pm 1645673889

Please call him a broken toilet as toilets are useful

by CWBW | 24th Feb 22, 5:11pm 1645675877

Don't suggest he's useless.

Putin just started to bomb Ukraine at this very moment.

Evening news may get exciting but probably the local TV will censored the blood and gore.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 5:47pm 1645678028

They have taken an airport in Kyiv already.

by Zachary Smith | 24th Feb 22, 5:57pm 1645678628

A random commenter on the Internet says that the entire Ukrainian navy has been destroyed.

by WhiskeyJack | 24th Feb 22, 6:28pm 1645680487

Ahahaha, yeah I'm sure that wouldn't be hard.

Anyway you can't De-Nazify without boots on the ground so to speak, you need to arrest the Nazis and for that you need troops.

by Yvil | 24th Feb 22, 6:23pm 1645680206

Vladimir you absolute toilet

Did you know that Vladimir doesn't flush his toilet? He just scares the shit out of it!

by Audaxes | 24th Feb 22, 8:01pm 1645686078

He has certainly scared the shit out of Ukraine's allies - where are they after selling arms to them?

This bozo must want to send an Australian destroyer into the Black Sea.

The west stood back and watched in Syria – it must not do the same in Ukraine

by mfd | 24th Feb 22, 4:33pm 1645673584

My oil stocks are up ~30% in the last quarter, while NZ real estate has been heading downhill. Also looking like a ~10% yield on the oil stocks this year, higher next year if oil prices stay this high.

I'd feel a lot more confident there than leveraged into NZ property. But of course diversity is great - no one knows what's around the corner.

by Justa comment | 24th Feb 22, 5:05pm 1645675535

yes oil and gas shares a smart move 6 weeks ago.

by J.C. | 24th Feb 22, 5:13pm 1645675994

I'd feel a lot more confident there than leveraged into NZ property.

Can't go wrong with bricks and mortar they reckon

by J.C. | 24th Feb 22, 4:39pm 1645673948

Oil and real estate are the shinning stars in turbulent times like these- outperforming every asset including cash.

Gold and silver looking pretty sprightly. Ol' ratty taking a pummeling.

by DTRH | 24th Feb 22, 5:04pm 1645675497

Barfoot and Thompson mystery comment but did sale 7 out of 22 at auction today so around 30% you are joking if you think this will hold up housing market.just 29462 houses on trade me today that’s with the seven taken off from big sales auction today.

by streetwise | 24th Feb 22, 5:46pm 1645678013

There will be plenty of bargain stocks to be had out there. In a couple of days the NZX will zoom up again. It's been doing this all year. whenever there's an 'event' of any nature the day traders sell off hoping the amateurs will follow suit which they inevitably do; a day or two later they buy back in at the lower prices. I'd be surprised if this is any different.

by rastus1 | 24th Feb 22, 9:58pm 1645693136

Not no real estate!

by Pa1nter | 24th Feb 22, 5:21pm 1645676473

Probably this is a very good time to identify how wonderful it is to live in NZ, dealing with such trivial issues.

Heart goes out to the people of Ukraine.

by Squishy | 25th Feb 22, 12:00am 1645700416

Probably Moldova as well unfortunately.

News footage is showing Ukrainian people fleeing cities ahead of the invading Russian forces. The EU will need a plan here to conduit refugees westwards. There seems little fighting so far but they probably stand the best chance of mounting a defense west of the Dnieper river if they can blow the bridges. Then they can concentrate forces on the invasion force from Belarus. The Russians have a large numerical advantage, they can't fight them everywhere and all at once.

by Comyn | 24th Feb 22, 5:54pm 1645678454

Frankly, China and Russia see the west as weak. The squabbling, protests, the blame games, identity politics, disrespect for law or institutions, etc. This is time for them to make a move to expand borders. I just didn't think it would be so soon. I'm sure China is watching with interest, maybe next they will send a few peace keepers to Taiwan? Sanctions won't work nor military action. They have got the west by the short and curly's

by Pa1nter | 24th Feb 22, 5:56pm 1645678579

Both of those countries are boxed into a corner, and are going to act hostile to try and legitimise themselves.

by waymad | 24th Feb 22, 8:31pm 1645687889

And David Goldman, here at Asia Times, has just called the US machinations 'the greatest strategic blunder this century'....

Biden throws Putin into Xi's briar patch.....

by HouseMouse | 24th Feb 22, 6:32pm 1645680720

Don't want to pretend I'm a Nostradamus or anything, but as 'Fritz' I did say about 3 years ago some sort of world event (military, economic or both) would happen in 2022 that would bring economies down.

Spooky.

Will be interesting to see if this pushes interest rates up more, or less...

But much more importantly - thoughts with the people in Ukraine

by Wrong John | 24th Feb 22, 7:31pm 1645684274

Putin's bark is bad but his bite is worse. It's a shame he can't create anything other than chaos. The Russian people have & are paying for his ego.

by streetwise | 24th Feb 22, 11:31pm 1645698709

True, but Russia is a paradox. Consider the following:

Two powerful countries, France (Napoleon) and Germany (Nazis) got their fingers severely burnt attempting to invade Russia.

More recently, Russia (a powerful country) got its fingers burnt attempting to invade two very primitive small countries Chechnya and Afghanistan.

It should be remembered that when the Nazis invaded Russia in 1941 the Ukrainians, Latvians, Lithuanians, and Estonians collaborated enthusiastically with the Nazis in murdering any Jews and Communist officials that they came across.

Trump is a great admirer of Putin. The protesters in Wellington are now acting like Trump and Putin puppets.

If anyone loses a loved one in the present Omicron flareup, don't be surprised if that someone draws a bead on one of the leaders of the protesters. I would like to see middle NZders organize some physical opposition to this scum.....much like the farmers did during the 1951 Auckland watersiders' strike.

by Noncents | 24th Feb 22, 8:23pm 1645687399

Child Poverty stats are a tad concerning, and don't include any of the thousands of kids in emergency housing. Which I believe puts them over all three stats, rather than under as claimed by Govt.

Self proclaimed Minister of Child Poverty doing a great job there.

by Noncents | 24th Feb 22, 9:01pm 1645689660

Just choked on my new electricity prices. Inflation at 6%, yeah right!

Charge Type | Current Prices (excl. GST) | New Prices (excl. GST) | Percentage Increase

Daily - c/day | 78.023 | 98.824 | 26.7%

Anytime - c/kWh | 24.472 | 26.472 | 8.2%

Controlled - c/kWh | 24.406 | 26.472 | 8.5%

by Squishy | 24th Feb 22, 9:31pm 1645691476

Commodities jumped almost across the board, including oil up to over $100/bbl now. Major indexes and futures are indicating steep declines.

So much for gentle moves in inflation.

by Ahuhyeah | 24th Feb 22, 10:24pm 1645694647

Well well. Could be pushing double digits in a month or two as everyone passes on everything.....

by Squishy | 24th Feb 22, 11:08pm 1645697333

Given the lack of urgency in fighting inflation so far I think we may well have been on that path anyway unfortunately.

Truthfully I'd hoped RBNZ would use this opportunity to marginally increase the rate at which they are hiking. Clearly the doves prevailed.

by Ahuhyeah | 24th Feb 22, 10:30pm 1645695001

Taiwan?

by blobbles | 24th Feb 22, 10:51pm 1645696315

Remember how Putin visited Xi just before the Ukraine crisis?

What's the bet they have a little agreement that goes something like this as a proposal from Putin:

If you support me with the invasion of Ukraine, I will support you with an invasion of Taiwan. The West won't want to fight a war on two fronts so will likely sit both situations out. But if they attack me for attacking Ukraine, can you send me some of your stuff? In exchange, we will build a gas pipeline...

by blobbles | 24th Feb 22, 10:55pm 1645696542

"INCOMES RISE FASTER THAN INFLATION"

You sure? Your report says that incomes for the year are up 4.5%. But the current inflation rate was just recorded as 5.9%...

Also we are trying to build a new house. 1 year ago we were quoted for $3000 per sqm. Today we were requoted at $4500, for exactly the same house. Looks like building costs have gone up 50% in a year. Likely we can't afford this now... and our household sits in the top 5% of income. If the high paid can't afford to build... who the hell is able to?

by Ahuhyeah | 24th Feb 22, 11:08pm 1645697312

Wow that's crazy. Housing construction about to stop in a hurry then.

by Squishy | 25th Feb 22, 12:53am 1645703596

A Winnebago might be a better investment.

by Solve_it | 25th Feb 22, 5:48am 1645721319

Ouch.

by Brock Landers | 25th Feb 22, 7:00am 1645725637

Paying just over $1500 sqm in Australia for a fairly decent spec. NZ is just mental.

by blobbles | 25th Feb 22, 7:26am 1645727171

Yeah, we will probably just stop now. And nobody is doing fixed price apparently so it will likely end up over 5k per sq m. We are going standard spec too, friend in Aus just finishing a new house for 1600 per sq m (South Australia), with above average spec.

by Whatwillhappen | 25th Feb 22, 9:25am 1645734340

Pity about all the Australians over there. And the spiders and snakes and bushfires and dingoes eating babies and uranium and saltwater crocs and French naval designers