A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; more retail rate rises, CoreLogic sees different/lesser property market, Aussie inflation surprises on high side, swaps firm, NZD soft, & more

Got cocky and made a few (expensive) errors which made me think my cognition and rational was off.

Ran the numbers.  I'm financially independent but only just.  Lose anymore and I potentially lose my freedom.  More fun being at work when you can leave permanently after a bad day :)

Still made x12 on my original investment but its been surprisingly stressful selling out.  

Actually I'll change my response.

Basically I was up all night, couldn't sleep, heart pounding, bathed in sweat as to whether I called it quit.  I decided at that point the feeling I was going through meant I was over-exposed and I needed to sell (at least half) if I ever wanted to sleep again.  

Thanks for this post (and the follow-ups). Was a refreshing read. 

Thanks!  Yes it did really well.  Life changing really (well sort of).

But the loss / stupidity of not selling closer to the top is making me kick myself.  Not BTC so much but all the other crazy coins I had.

Will be back to accumulating if I can though.  I'm very bullish for a 2-3 year outlook.   

You need to understand that the word 'crypto' is kind of redundant now. Furthermore, if you understand how to zoom out and look at BTC on a log scale, you get a better sense of the nature of it. 

The tax is absolutely awful.  The trick is estimating it and having it in NZD right now.

That kinda started my exit really.  Once you have the ability to convert to NZD easily, it becomes "real" money I suppose.

Quite stressed about my next tax return though 

Yes I wonder how many other 'adopters' are having the similar/same experience as lonewolf. If its common theme, best idea is to know when to sell before everyone else does. 

Most of it, I still have a bit in there.

Long term I see it going up and up vs fiat.  Short term its tied to tech stocks and algo-trading.  

I certainly want to hold NZD long term.  

I'm pretty comfy now so will still be buying (just want a smaller size).  Ironically I haven't bought any BTC since last year sometime.

Makes total sense to me I would be pulling out the lot if I had made good money and putting it in something "Real" especially if it was something like a house and wiping out the remaining mortgage seeing as we are certain to see interest rates rise. Why a huge number of people didn't pull the plug when it peaked at like $67k is beyond me. Greed I guess you always think its going to go higher.

JimboJones "Isn’t it ironic to be taking your money out of crypto considering it’s meant to be the safe haven saving us from the printing presses of fiat?"

I was also thinking this. I have about 2% of my portfolio in crypto and have always seen it as pure speculation; most of my investments are elsewhere. But converting your crypto to fiat means you're now losing about 7% pa due to inflation, so really it should be invested in something else...but what? Bullion has been disappointing in this high-inflation time. Sharemarkets are looking shaky (and crypto unfortunately has become correlated with tech stocks). Residential real estate looking to take a big hit, with eye-watering increases in mortgage rates. Industrial real estate is still holding up well, but for how long? When are the businesses that lease the warehouses and offices going to start feeling the pressure of massive inflation and start laying off staff or going bust? Strange times.

Seconding the recommendation for Ben’s analysis. I’ve found him very informative. 

if you believe in a softish landing --  OCR topping about 3 3.5% max --- banks look good --- but an OCR of say 5.5%   -  thats a fairly hefty write down of banks asset sheets --  and probably significant repayment stressors -- mortgagee sales etc --- but wipe 25% off the balance sheet in property would make for a very nasty balance sheet at all our major banks--   would the increased margins compensate for that ?   not sure 

You don't think a slowing (shrinking) global economy and an OCR rate doubling 2.5 times (with more to come) will put a dent in inflation?

I am hoping that RBA hold their rates low if we carry on hiking. At some point we will look over the pond and realise that our inflation is tracking up with the OCR, whilst theirs is subsiding more quickly. Maybe then economists might realise that the world does not work how they think it does. Although history would suggest that they will just come up an explanation that enables them to carry on using their flat earth models.   

The answer to that Gummy is obvious. The RBNZ are protecting the property market (yet again) by giving all those on fixed mortgages that come out this year a chance to refix for 3 to 5 years at lower rates. This will kick the can down the road for another 3 years and by then all the current suspects will have left their current positions and someone else will get the blame.

Exactly why the hell are they on 0.1 ????????????