A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; more retail rate rises, fuel discounts to stick a while yet, farmers very glum, Xmas spending restrained, HYEFU restrained, swaps stable, NZD stays firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ changed its business loan and overdraft rates by +65 bps,

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ASB raised its FastSaver and other savings account rates today. The Cooperative Bank raised term deposit rates today.

CAR USERS GET REPRIEVE, BUT NOT TRUCKS
The Government has extended its petrol tax cut by two months, so that it will now end at the end of March. Public transport discounts will be extended similarly. But the discount in Road User Charges will end as scheduled on January 31, 2023. 

RECORD SHORTFALL
The September current account deficit hit a record high of -7.9% of GDP. Statistics NZ said the country's deficit between what we received for exports and what we spent on imports was a record -$29.7 bln in the year to September.

RECORD LOW
Farmer confidence has fallen dramatically since last quarter and is now at the lowest level recorded in the 20-year history of the Rabobank survey. Government policy and rising farm input costs were the major concerns.

PRE-CHRISTMAS SPENDING IS UP
New figures released by Worldline NZ (ex-Paymark) show consumer spending in the third week before Christmas Day was higher than the same time last year, but spending patterns were mixed across merchant sectors and regions. Spending for big-ticket items is particularly slow, suggesting that while consumers are still spending freely, there is some holding off on purchases of those more expensive items this side of Christmas

MANIPULATION
The Financial Markets Authority has filed High Court civil proceedings against Kok Ding Cheng, an experienced retail investor based in Auckland, for alleged market manipulation of NZX-listed shares of Rua Bioscience Limited. The FMA and NZX were alerted to the case after ASB Securities had earlier reported potential concerns about his orders.

BAD WEATHER IS EXPENSIVE
The Insurance Council today reported that extreme weather-related claims spanning five events across July and August has reached 11,086 claims valued at $124 mln. This is a third more than original estimates. The running total for extreme weather events for 2022 currently stands at $335 mln, a new record.

CHOICE & CIRCUMSTANCE
The Treasury released a research paper today exploring "the distribution of advantage". The distribution of advantage and disadvantage typically results from the interplay between choice and circumstance, and the evidence base can only partly separate the two. This issue is particularly acute when considering patterns of advantage over the course of a person’s life. Circumstances and choices at one age can shape the circumstances and choices available at future ages, they observe.

ACCOUNTABILITY & RESPONSIBILITY
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr and the central bank's Executive Leadership Team appeared at Parliament's Finance and Expenditure Committee hearing for their 2022 Annual Review today. This is what Orr said in his opening remarks. He told them banks need to take a long term view on their customer base 'because it is a lifetime of earnings they get off each customer', and are up for supporting them through a difficult patch.

A BIG JUMP IN UNEMPLOYMENT ON THE WAY
The Government presented its Half Year Economic & Fiscal Update today. It was a pretty benign view presented but it is now forecasting net debt to rise from $62 bln this year (17% of GDP) to $88 bln in 2024 (21% of GDP) before it falls from there. They also see our jobless rate rise from 3.3% to 5.5% in 2024. Given that there are 97,400 jobless now, that means it will rise by at least another 64,900 to 162,300 by 2024. The last time we had 162,000 people unemployed was in 1993 - although back then the labour force was much smaller. Still, this forecast says we are headed for a 30 year high jobless rate. Despite this, the government does seem to have started heeding concerns over high government spending and its influence on inflation, with a more pared back spending program coming.

HUGE DEPOSITS
The RBNZ reported that banks' Settlement Cash balances at the RBNZ (which earn at the OCR rate) touched $57.5 bln yesterday, matching the record high first seen on October 18, 2022.

SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates were likely little-changed today. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 4.52%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.36% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.94% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.18%, and also unchanged and still well above the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which was up +3 bps to 4.14%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.50% and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. All eyes are on tomorrow's US Fed decisions and policy changes.

EQUITIES STILL MOSTLY POSITIVE
Wall Street was risk-on today. The S&P500 ended its Tuesday session up another +0.7% but with a late sag. Tokyo has opened up +0.4%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.1% at their open. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is little-changed in late trade.

GOLD UP
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1811/oz and up +US$28 from this time yesterday.

NZD FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is +½c firmer from this time yesterday, now at 64.5 USc. Against the AUD we are marginally softer at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 60.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now up fractionally at 72.6.

BITCOIN FIRMS FURTHER
The bitcoin prices is up +3.6% to US$17,784. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».