Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ has lifted all its fixed rates up to and including two years by between 4 basis points (two years) and 30 bps (six months). But longer term fixed rates have been cut, most noticeably the three-year rate, which has been sliced by 60 bps. The variable meanwhile is up 40 bps.
ANZ has added 30 bps to its business lending rates, with the indicator rate now 13.2%, the agri current account 11.4% and the business overdraft 15.2%
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has added 30 bps to its online account rates (now 2.55%).
ASB has added 30 bps to its FastSaver (2.1%), and 40 bps to the on-call account (2.65%)
Treasury says Kiwi Bond rates have been raised by 50 bps (for two-year), 75 bps (for one year) and 100 bps (for six months). The top rate is now 5% for a year, while the four-year rate is unchanged at 4.25%.
AIR NEW ZEALAND IS FLYING
National carrier Air New Zealand is continuing to soar above its own expectations and has increased the midpoint of its expected profit range in this financial year by $35 million. It told the NZX that it now expects earnings before other significant items and taxation for the June 2023 financial year to be in the range of $510 million to $560 million, compared with prior guidance range of $450 million to $530 million. "The airline has continued to experience strong levels of demand on both the domestic and international networks," the company said.
NO PENALTIES FOR ANZ AFTER RBNZ AML PROBE
The Reserve Bank has closed an anti-money laundering investigation into ANZ NZ related to self-reported wire transfer reporting failures. No fine or other penalties have been imposed on ANZ which says it's "acutely aware" of its "role in preventing financial crime and will continue to proactively engage with regulators and law enforcement." The Reserve Bank says ANZ must provide a written update to its AML/CFT supervision team on the effectiveness of the procedures, policies and controls relating to the affected transaction types, including details of assurance activities or control testing results. The report's to be provided to the Reserve Bank no later than 31 October. Background to the investigation is here.
NATIONAL TO REVERSE LABOUR'S REMOVAL OF 'NO CAUSE' TENANCY TERMINATION
The National Party's pledging to reverse Labour's removal of 'no cause' tenancy terminations as well as the Labour-introduced provisions that saw most fixed tenancies automatically role over to periodic tenancies. This latest pledge is on top of the National promise to reinstate interest deductibility for rentals and restoring the brightline test to two years from 10. "Labour’s removal in 2021 of no-cause terminations and the near-automatic rollover of fixed term tenancies into periodic tenancies may have been well intentioned, but they have backfired badly, discouraging landlords from offering their properties up for rent," National's Housing Spokesperson Chris Bishop said.
GOVT ANNOUNCES NEW $57 MILLION FUND FOR ONSHORE WOOD PROCESSING
The Government's announced a $57 million fund to assist more onshore wood processing. Forestry Minister Peeni Henare says the new fund would enable the Government to partner with wood processors to co-invest in wood processing capacity to create products like sawn structural timber and engineered wood. "We want to process more logs onshore, help move our forestry sector from volume to value, lift our economic performance and resilience and create high-wage jobs in our regions," he said.
YOU HAVE ONE MORE WEEK FOR HELP WITH YOUR CENSUS FORMS
Stats NZ says Census collectors will be in communities for one more week only, until May 3. [But they will stay in areas most affected by Cyclone Gabrielle (the Far North, and Te Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay regions) until Thursday 1 June.] "It is time to get those forms in if you haven’t done them yet. Time is running out to do the census," Deputy Government Statistician and Deputy Chief Executive Census and Collections Operations Simon Mason said. "To organise a visit from a census collector, call the 0800 236 787 (0800 CENSUS) helpline." He thanked the "8.5 people in 10" who have filled in the Census to date.
BUSINESS CREDIT DEMAND DOWN 6.6% SAYS EQUIFAX
Business credit demand fell -6.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2023, with demand across all commercial credit types below pre-pandemic levels, according credit reporting company Equifax NZ. The company says business credit demand is now at its lowest level since the initial pandemic lockdown in 2020. According to Equifax, business loans -12.7% and trade credit -11.1% were the largest contributors to the March quarter decline, with asset finance down -5.6% year on year following a strong December quarter. Business loan and trade credit demand are both now at their lowest levels in the history of the Index (est. 2019).
THE 'NO FRILLS' BUDGET
The May Budget will not include any new taxes and will be focused on fiscal restraint, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins says.
RBNZ 'GAINS TRACTION' WITH INFLATION FIGHT
ANZ's latest Business Outlook Survey shows "falling inflation signals", which is consistent with the Reserve Bank gradually gaining traction with its inflation-fighting efforts, ANZ economists say.
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CLEARED TO BUY SITE FOR SECOND NZ CAMPUS
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation [FPH] has received approval from the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) for its $275 million acquisition of a 105-hectare site in Karaka, Auckland that will be used to construct a second NZ campus for the company. Development of the new campus will occur over 30 to 40 years. The initial focus will be on effecting a private plan change to re-zone the land, designing the core infrastructure and commencing earthworks over the next five years.
SWAP RATES LIKELY FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates are probably firmer on Thursday and reversing some of Wednesday's falls. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down 1 bp at 5.56%. The Australian 10-year bond yield is now at 3.35% and up 3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is down 1 bp at 2.81%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.1%, and that is up 4 bps. The UST 10 year yield is at at 3.44% and up 1 bp.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The S&P500 followed Wednesday's turbulent day with another 0.4% drop overnight. Tokyo has opened down 0.2% and Hong Kong is down marginally, with a 0.1% fall. Shanghai is having a brighter start, up 0.3%. The ASX200 is down 0.4% in afternoon trade, and the NZX50 is following Wednesday's fairly sold drop with a very small fall at time of writing.
GOLD PUSHING US$2000
Gold broke through the US$2000/oz mark overnight only to fall back pretty much straight away. A short while ago it gained another head of steam in early Asian trade, and at time of writing was up U$10 at US$1999.
NZD DRIFTING
The Kiwi dollar is down slightly against the US currency from this time on Wednesday, at US61.3c, but that is up from US61.1c overnight. Against the Aussie we are at A92.85c, up from A92.75c. And against the euro we are at 55.5 euro cents, down from 55.9 euro cents on Wednesday. The TWI-5 is at 68.6, which is down down 20 bps from this time on Wednesday.
BITCOIN BACK UP OVER US$29,000
Having just fallen short of hitting the US$30,000 mark again in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's currently at just over $29,000, which is up 2.4% in the past 24 hours.
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91 Comments
Simona, a native Romanian who has lived in Brussels for two decades, says that she has had to sleep in a park multiple times because she couldn't find decent housing there.
When the mother of three found one apartment, it lacked hot water or heating and she got sick several times.
Around one-third of people like her in Brussels live below the poverty line, and housing market prices are only increasing.
“Poor quality housing is rented more expensive than average quality housing,” the organisation's project manager Anne-Sophie Dupont told Euronews.
Sounds like paradise.
Change 'Brussels' to 'Whanganui' and 'multiple times' to '2 months', and it will sound like an average story in NZ, really.
On a serious note, I used to live in Belgium. It's very diverse. The place where I lived, a city called Hasselt, is more developed than any city I've visited in NZ. Queenstown is somewhat comparable, but not quite.
Some places down in Vallonia are very run down.
Change 'Brussels' to 'Whanganui' and 'multiple times' to '2 months', and it will sound like an average story in NZ, really.
For sure. We're seeing the same story play out everywhere round the world:
-almost everyone hates their government's handling of covid and domestic post covid economy
-inflation is crazy almost everywhere
-theres a housing crisis everywhere people want to live
-everythings getting revalued because debt is more expensive (including many businesses)
Its just funny how NZ specific people seem to find things.
Yip! We pay them to do nothing, pay them more to have kids, then put them up in double glazed, 2 bathroom, heated modern homes, with all the social service looking after them and next to the gard working good folk in shitters.
Then we wonder why we are in debt and these bludgers are lining up for the dole and sleeping rough knowing they will be given a motel room then house.
It's a scam. Thanks Jacinda .
Understand the sentiment, but suggest you are short sighted.
- There isn't a huge queue for the dole, numbers are near record lows.
- Providing warm dry housing, and some money to stay alive are good ways to prevent/mitigate a parents poor luck/history/decisions from impacting their kids.
Instead of 'envy', view it from a whole of society view, what's best for those kids.
Since the new policy came in I won't rent to single parents, people without good references, or anyone who needs a chance really. Im a softie and the rules change mean that if I get it wrong, and i will, and they or their future partner turn out to be awful, I have a long slog to get them out, while they face no consequences for smashing the place up in the meantime. These rules are one reason for the explosion in emergency housing.
There is a need for more secure tenancies I agree, but it has to come with a feasible way to deal with problems. This zero consequences society we are turning into is nonsense.
Well, the farmers have had about 7 years' notice that cages were going to be banned. Were they in denial that it would happen? Apparently. Too bad. Likewise for anyone who is happy for a hen to be stuffed into a tiny cage for its short and miserable life, in exchange for cheap eggs. Unbelievably cruel.
They just operated till they couldn't. Everyone else was in denial about how much it'd cost after, because not only have those producers just shut down, anyone with half an inkling of getting into egg farming will think twice because there's a proven history of being regulated out of eggistence.
I'm not actually making any argument about animal welfare, it's been a long time since I bought caged eggs. I just used one of the most recent examples of how expensive it can be to try and regulate ourselves into some sort of elevated position - it's a luxury a lot of people can't afford.
A lot of positions are marginal, especially if the house has newer fittings and fixtures.
On the flipside if the house needs healthy homes upgrades you could be up for a couple hundred thousand, takes a lot of rent to pay that back. Longer than it'll take for a price recovery, anyway.
We bought the neighbouring house 15 years ago as an investment for retirement and to prevent probable development that would impact our house. It was a rental for a decade with minimal issues until we ended up with three young builders who were pleasant during the daytime but went crazy Thur, thru Sat night usually starting after midnight. Noise complaints from four different sets of neighbours. My neighbour on the other side told me she had cancelled a visit from family because of the language. Since those tenants were persuaded to leave it has been occupied by our relatives. It is just too much hassle dealing with bad tenants. Labour and the Greens bring in these well-intentioned policies but they backfire badly. Eventually the only landlords who will remain for low rent properties will be those who commission gangs to resolve end of tenancy via terrorism.
Evicting a tenant under the RTA is near impossible. Plenty of horror stories and landlords asking for guidance on property investor FB page. Here’s a classic. The landlord specifically wrote ‘no pets’ in the tenancy agreement. Tenants cat pissed frequently on the carpet leading it to be partially replaced. The adjudicator ruled that you couldn’t prevent someone having a pet and ruled that some damage could be expected. Result, partial arrears to replace the carpet. Next you won’t be able to stop smokers (filthy vermin) from smoking in your house.
If the country was fragile enough to be wrecked by one bad government it clearly wasn't in a good state to begin with. It's naive to think all of our problems can be blamed on the poor choices of the current government. What we have now is the result of decades of mismanagement from both sides of the political aisle. Favoring speculation over productivity and underinvesting in the parts of the economy that would of actually created meaningful prosperity.
But as you have said before apparently speculation is fantastic and we should do more of it to make ourselves wealthy and rich. Borrowing more money than we have to buy houses off each other at increasingly high prices is a great economic strategy with no negatives and will surely allow us to compete on the world stage.
You give them too much credit. This is a screwup that results from decades of poor management. We had 20 years to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and productive enterprise but instead, the politicians took the easy route and encouraged personal debt and structured a tax system that directed capital into inefficient speculation.
Now energy supplies are dwindling and have become more expensive, we are starting to run into demographic issues that exacerbate all of our numerous problems.
The money printing certainly didn't help, but all it has really done has sped up a process that was already in play. Basically all of the other anglo nations we typically compare ourselves to did the same thing to their own gain and detriment. New Zealand wasn't unique in our response to Covid.
Yet here we are in a much worse situation than others, not because of covid, but because our economy was overly dependent on speculation and all the money that should of been encouraged towards investment into productive assets had been directed through poor tax policy into speculative assets that have done nothing but make us all poorer once reality started to set in.
My mate manages a hotel in QT. He said most of the high-value tourists buy their travel package from overseas tour operators.
He says these operators have gotten bigger and stronger over Covid and are now squeezing local operators on pricing and retaining much of the hefty margins from the overall spend offshore.
So much for a tourism-led recovery to solve all our economic woes.
According to former minister Stuart Nash we need more of these big spending package tourists and fewer backpackers who take their time, visit smaller and cheaper places, and can't afford to visit many of our main attractions. I am told this is because they might poo in a hedge.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ has added 30 bps to its online account rates (now 2.55%).ASB has added 30 bps to its FastSaver (2.1%), and 40 bps to the on-call account (2.65%)
Ironic - the only ones saving are the banks. ANZ are getting 2.7%. ASB are making a nice 3.15% on their "Fastsaver". Both are making more than their customers.
Govt and RBNZ need to act. When banks are raking in records profits, why am I as a taxpayer funding them? It is bordering on criminal.
At the risk of making a fool of myself, I don't think that's how the maths works. Let's say the banks park all their customer deposits at the RBNZ. You deposit $10,000 with the bank, earning 2.55% p.a. and the bank deposits those funds at the RBNZ, earning 5.25% p.a. The bank earns a gross return of $525 p.a. and pays you a gross return of $255, so the bank's gross margin on that $525 is 51.43%.
Maybe I'm a fool too but there seems to be a global pattern along those lines. Banks are obviously aware of the risks of lending in this shit storm, and with higher rates offered by central banks they can just park their freely conjured money there and get a risk free return. A liquidity crisis driven recession is unfolding.
The only winners are those banks and we popcorn eaters.
Can someone please tell me how this can even happen???
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/fake-middlemore-hospital-doctor-with-walt…
A side bet; the election will be won on one issue… co-governance!
For me, there are pros/cons for both Labour and National… the issue I’ll be voting on is eradicating and reversing race-based law and regulations…. there is no happy future for any NZ resident under such regime!
I've been saying the same for 2 years now, despite all the strawman noises.
People can put up with a lot & even pull together occasionally (eg Covid Y1 2020) when they know that everyone has an equal say in whose running the country (& when the Govt hasn't lied by omission to get elected).
However, we now have a legitimate & realistic Plan B over the ditch.
Was that not the result of the petition put forward by prominent Maori elders to ban the speaking of Maori in schools, in favor of teaching them English? Kids were beaten at school all the time for breaking the rules. They weren't selectively singled out for speaking Maori.
Today no child is beaten by a teacher whatever they do - eg torture someone else's pet cat. But that is a change in how children are punished that has happened in my lifetime. I expect any teacher either in the past or today would object to children exchanging comments in a language that the teacher and some of the other children cannot understand; otherwise you are permitting a subset of pupils to get away with being cheeky.
This old turnip. Maori died as a language due to restrictions at school? Bullish!t. Parents too lazy to teach their kids their native language at home. Our child is bilingual (Spanish) due to our efforts. Kids at his school learn Hindi, Korean and Mandarin at home as the parents make a conscious effort. Bit like helping your kids with reading, math and actually going to school.
In the case of the family I'm aware of, the parents stopped teaching Maori because they didn't want their children to be beaten. They started speaking English at home to spare the kids the cane.
Luckily, we are a lot more inclusive now so you can teach your child Spanish without fear of reprisal.
Well people keep talking about best qualified for the job. South Africa are probably yearning to go back to the good old days too, back when loadshedding wasn't a thing for example.
Their best qualified (mainly white) are coming here in droves too, only to find our country is on a similar trajectory. Yet to see any evidence that suggests higher levels of melatonin results in the same, if not higher, levels of IQ, competency and lower levels of corruption.
Melatonin - A hormone made by the pineal gland (tiny organ near the center of the brain). Melatonin helps control the body's sleep cycle, and is an antioxidant. It is also made in the laboratory and sold as a supplement.
Melanin - A dark brown to black pigment occurring in the hair, skin, and iris of the eye in people and animals. It is responsible for tanning skin exposed to sunlight.
Judging by my Melanesian step-children (all adults working in Auckland) higher melanin levels than average Caucasians does not inhibit IQ or competency. They have zero tolerance for corruption. I would match them against the average of any ethnic group you can name. Are you recommending they take Melatonin supplements?
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