Nick Smyth
Global rates blast higher again - US 10-year +9bps, Germany 10-year +7bps. Bank of Canada hikes 50bps. Equities fall on higher Fed rate expectations
2nd Jun 22, 7:56am
Global rates blast higher again - US 10-year +9bps, Germany 10-year +7bps. Bank of Canada hikes 50bps. Equities fall on higher Fed rate expectations
No clear catalyst for the improvement in risk sentiment but markets' recession concerns appear to be easing a little. USD broadly weaker amid stabilisation in Fed rate expectations
30th May 22, 7:42am
No clear catalyst for the improvement in risk sentiment but markets' recession concerns appear to be easing a little. USD broadly weaker amid stabilisation in Fed rate expectations
Fed minutes hint at a possible pause in the tightening cycle later this year, boosting equities. NZ short-term rates spike higher, yield curve flattens aggressively as market lifts RBNZ rate expectations
26th May 22, 8:01am
1
Fed minutes hint at a possible pause in the tightening cycle later this year, boosting equities. NZ short-term rates spike higher, yield curve flattens aggressively as market lifts RBNZ rate expectations
S&P500 briefly breaks through into bear market territory. No signs of central bankers wavering from their hawkish stances - Lagarde alludes to likely July ECB rate hike. Global rates lower as recession fears mount
23rd May 22, 7:51am
2
S&P500 briefly breaks through into bear market territory. No signs of central bankers wavering from their hawkish stances - Lagarde alludes to likely July ECB rate hike. Global rates lower as recession fears mount
Risk appetite recovers helped by news that Shanghai is planning to ease lockdown restriction. Fed's Powell supports 50bps hikes at the next two meetings while acknowledging it will be "quite challenging" to achieve a soft landing
16th May 22, 7:50am
2
Risk appetite recovers helped by news that Shanghai is planning to ease lockdown restriction. Fed's Powell supports 50bps hikes at the next two meetings while acknowledging it will be "quite challenging" to achieve a soft landing
Risk sentiment rebounds overnight, with equities bouncing back. Global rates lower amid falling market-based inflation expectations. Several Fed officials endorse +50bps hikes at the next two meetings
11th May 22, 7:52am
2
Risk sentiment rebounds overnight, with equities bouncing back. Global rates lower amid falling market-based inflation expectations. Several Fed officials endorse +50bps hikes at the next two meetings
Asset markets signal growing concern around the global growth outlook. Equities tumble. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations. CNY weakness continues
10th May 22, 7:57am
1
Asset markets signal growing concern around the global growth outlook. Equities tumble. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations. CNY weakness continues
Global long-term rates hit fresh highs. US nonfarm payrolls close to expectations, but some tentative signs that wage pressures are easing. Industrial metals and commodity currencies also lower as global growth concerns weigh
9th May 22, 7:56am
1
Global long-term rates hit fresh highs. US nonfarm payrolls close to expectations, but some tentative signs that wage pressures are easing. Industrial metals and commodity currencies also lower as global growth concerns weigh
Australian CPI blows past expectations and markets expect an RBA hike next week. NZD and AUD hold up relatively well. NZ 2-year swap rate continues to push relentlessly higher
28th Apr 22, 7:56am
5
Australian CPI blows past expectations and markets expect an RBA hike next week. NZD and AUD hold up relatively well. NZ 2-year swap rate continues to push relentlessly higher
Equity markets plummet again on concerns around the global growth outlook. US bond rates fall for the second day running on safe haven demand
27th Apr 22, 7:58am
2
Equity markets plummet again on concerns around the global growth outlook. US bond rates fall for the second day running on safe haven demand
With interest rates on two-year bank mortgage rates seemingly poised to rise above floating rates, could we see growth in the number of borrowers choosing to float over fixing?
21st Apr 22, 10:13am
14
With interest rates on two-year bank mortgage rates seemingly poised to rise above floating rates, could we see growth in the number of borrowers choosing to float over fixing?
Global rates sharply lower and the USD broadly weaker in partial reversal. Canada CPI blows past expectations; market pricing a small chance of 75bps BoC hike in June
21st Apr 22, 7:56am
2
Global rates sharply lower and the USD broadly weaker in partial reversal. Canada CPI blows past expectations; market pricing a small chance of 75bps BoC hike in June
Global bond yields continue to march higher with the US 10-year up to 2.91%. No real catalyst for the increase in rates although Fed rhetoric remains hawkish
20th Apr 22, 7:59am
2
Global bond yields continue to march higher with the US 10-year up to 2.91%. No real catalyst for the increase in rates although Fed rhetoric remains hawkish
Global bond sell-off resumes - US 10-year makes new cycle high of 2.88%. Higher oil prices add upward pressure. China GDP much stronger than expected in Q1. Lots of US economic data released, mostly stronger than expected
19th Apr 22, 7:42am
3
Global bond sell-off resumes - US 10-year makes new cycle high of 2.88%. Higher oil prices add upward pressure. China GDP much stronger than expected in Q1. Lots of US economic data released, mostly stronger than expected
RBNZ and Bank of Canada both hike by 50bps. RBNZ statement fails to meet very elevated market expectations, seeing big falls in NZ rates and the NZD. Global bonds show further signs of stabilising
14th Apr 22, 7:44am
3
RBNZ and Bank of Canada both hike by 50bps. RBNZ statement fails to meet very elevated market expectations, seeing big falls in NZ rates and the NZD. Global bonds show further signs of stabilising
US rates finally correct lower after core CPI surprises to the downside. Market still priced for a 50bps Fed hike next month but expectations for tightening later this year scaled back
13th Apr 22, 7:54am
1
US rates finally correct lower after core CPI surprises to the downside. Market still priced for a 50bps Fed hike next month but expectations for tightening later this year scaled back
Global rates higher again overnight, as market views ECB minutes hawkishly. US 2s10s curve steepens. More reports that the Shanghai lockdown is worsening supply-chain issues
8th Apr 22, 7:51am
Global rates higher again overnight, as market views ECB minutes hawkishly. US 2s10s curve steepens. More reports that the Shanghai lockdown is worsening supply-chain issues
Global bond sell-off continues - US 10-year hits fresh 3-year high. FOMC minutes flag 50bps hike risk and aggressive quantitative tightening. USD stronger amid more cautious risk appetite
7th Apr 22, 7:45am
2
Global bond sell-off continues - US 10-year hits fresh 3-year high. FOMC minutes flag 50bps hike risk and aggressive quantitative tightening. USD stronger amid more cautious risk appetite
Quarter ends with softer risk sentiment, not helped by weak China PMI data. Oil prices lower after US to release 180m barrels over six months from its strategic reserve
1st Apr 22, 7:54am
1
Quarter ends with softer risk sentiment, not helped by weak China PMI data. Oil prices lower after US to release 180m barrels over six months from its strategic reserve
USD broadly weaker overnight, seeing NZD push up towards 70 USc. Curve flattening continues in the NZ rates market
31st Mar 22, 7:55am
5
USD broadly weaker overnight, seeing NZD push up towards 70 USc. Curve flattening continues in the NZ rates market
Global bond sell-off continues apace. US 10-year hits 2.50% after Citi calls for 4x 50bps hikes. Equities surprisingly resilient. Half of Shanghai to go into four-day lockdown starting today
28th Mar 22, 7:57am
1
Global bond sell-off continues apace. US 10-year hits 2.50% after Citi calls for 4x 50bps hikes. Equities surprisingly resilient. Half of Shanghai to go into four-day lockdown starting today
Market sentiment remains upbeat - US equities push higher. European PMIs highlight softer growth/higher inflation tension. US 10-year breakeven inflation hits 3% for first time on record
25th Mar 22, 7:52am
Market sentiment remains upbeat - US equities push higher. European PMIs highlight softer growth/higher inflation tension. US 10-year breakeven inflation hits 3% for first time on record
Hawkish talk from Fed officials on Friday, several flagging a 50bps hike as a serious option. US yield curve continues to flatten. Equity markets brush off the hawkish rhetoric and risk-on tone builds
21st Mar 22, 7:53am
1
Hawkish talk from Fed officials on Friday, several flagging a 50bps hike as a serious option. US yield curve continues to flatten. Equity markets brush off the hawkish rhetoric and risk-on tone builds
Global risk appetite recovers. Strong gains in US equities and further weakness in the USD. Bond yields little changed overnight. Market pares back probability of 50bps RBNZ hike in April to under 50% after slightly softer GDP release
18th Mar 22, 8:06am
Global risk appetite recovers. Strong gains in US equities and further weakness in the USD. Bond yields little changed overnight. Market pares back probability of 50bps RBNZ hike in April to under 50% after slightly softer GDP release
US equities fall on Russia-Ukraine war and central bank tightening. USD broadly stronger. US 10-year continues to hover near 2% while inflation expectations reach new highs. NZ rates continue to trend higher
14th Mar 22, 7:42am
1
US equities fall on Russia-Ukraine war and central bank tightening. USD broadly stronger. US 10-year continues to hover near 2% while inflation expectations reach new highs. NZ rates continue to trend higher