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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Monday, October 19, 2015

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Monday, October 19, 2015

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6795 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD is little changed from where we closed on Friday with investors still happy to add to their risk portfolios.

Fridays U.S. Consumer Sentiment data printed ahead of economists estimates at 92.1 vs., 88.8, while Industrial Production m/m came in as expected at 0.2%. Earlier in the day Euro-zone’s trade surplus declined more than forecast (19.8b vs., 22.1b) while their inflation turned negative for September with consumer prices falling -0.1% in line with expectations.

This afternoons China data will be the main driver today with GDP expected to fall from 7.0% to 6.8% while their industrial production is also expected to print slightly softer at 6.0% vs. 6.1%.

On the domestic data front Tuesday evening's Global Dairy Trade Auction should prove to be the weeks highlight, while on the international front Thursday nights ECB Monetary Policy meeting may see the ECB add to their current stimulus.

Global equity markets finished the week broadly higher - Dow +0.43%, S&P 500 +0.46%, FTSE +0.62%, DAX +0.39%, CAC +0.59%, Nikkei +1.08%, Shanghai +1.60%.

Gold prices lost $4.50 on Friday but still posted a weekly gain of +2.4% closing at $1,177 an ounce, WTI crude oil closed on Friday at $47.26 a barrel having fallen -4.8% for the week.

Indicative mid-rate pricing:

NZDUSD           0.6795       -0.9%
NZDEUR           0.5983       -0.7%
NZDGBP           0.4401       -0.6%
NZDJPY             81.19         -0.4%
NZDAUD           0.9352         0.1%
NZDCAD           0.8775        -0.4%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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