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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, March 11, 2016

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, March 11, 2016

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6669 (mid-rate) this morning.

The Reserve Bank of NZ surprised the market yesterday morning and cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25% and the kiwi dropped 180 points over the day from yesterday’s open.

Chinese Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose 2.3% in February from a year earlier, compared with 1.8% in January. Food costs climbed amid the week long Lunar New Year holidays where millions feast on roast pork, duck, seafood and vegetables.

Chinese Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 4.9%, narrowing from a 5.3% decrease in January, extending declines to a record 48 months.

German Trade Balance showed a surplus of EUR 13.6 billion in January 2016, smaller than the EUR 15.9 billion in January 2015. German exports declined 1.4%, while imports increased 1.5% year on year.

Italian unemployment rate was 11.5% as expected, quite interesting when compared with the U.S. at 4.9%, and 6.0% for NZ and Australia

U.S. Unemployment claims were 259k for the week ending 5 March, lower than the 272k expected.

The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a surprise package of measures to kickstart Europe's economy. The euro zone's 19 countries are now seen posting average growth of 1.4 percent in 2016, rather than the 1.7 percent forecast in December

Global equity markets are down with the exception of Japan: Dow -0.68%, S&P 500 -0.61%, FTSE -1.78%, DAX -2.31%, CAC -1.70%, Nikkei +1.26%, Shanghai -2.02%.

Gold prices rallied 1.2% currently up $16 trading at $1272 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil has continued higher overnight currently up 0.9% trading at $38.29 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.6669      -1.8%
NZDEUR       0.5956      -3.2%
NZDGBP       0.4667      -2.2%
NZDJPY         75.21       -2.1%
NZDAUD       0.8958      -0.9%
NZDCAD       0.8913      -0.9%

Upcoming data releases:

  • 10:30 – Business NZ Manufacturing Index
  • 10:45 – FPI m/m

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Email:  

Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ
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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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4 Comments

'The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a surprise package of measures to kickstart Europe's economy.'

Kick the can down the road would be a better simile. A united Europe was only ever a pipedream, and it is unravelling fast. The present hiatus will not last..

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The UN I think predicted millions of refugees, they were a bit early for 2010? but the way things are progressing in the Easterm Med and NE africa suggests the "trickle" is going to become a decent stream. I cant see the EU surviving it.

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The historically low interest rates and rescues of failing institutions are indicative of terminal decline. it's only a matter of time before it all become unmanageable. Still looking at the end of 2016 for the big jolt.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-10/draghi-whips-out-bazooka-ecb-a…

Monetary policy decisions

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:

(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.

(2) The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

(3) The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016.

(4) The monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme will be expanded to €80 billion starting in April.

(5) Investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area will be included in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases.

(6) A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

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ZH is a bit of a joke, however a stuck clock is right twice a day.

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