The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, January 18, 2019

The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Friday, January 18, 2019

By Dan Bell

The Kiwi opens at 0.6786.

As I type news out the US mulls lifting tariffs on China. This has seen a quick 0.5% pop in both the Kiwi and the AUD across the board, and could see a large risk on move if implemented. Whether there is real follow through, or if it is merely Trump trying to distract from the shutdown with some positive news, remains to be seen.

The Pound has been a mover overnight, extending its gains since Teresa May’s Government survived the No Confidence vote yesterday morning NZT. While not giving great clarity to anything, it does remove some uncertainty, for now at least. The latest is Jeremy Corbyn is refusing to meet with May for talks unless she agrees to take the no deal Brexit option off the table. As she explains back to him, under Article 50, unless they come to a deal, or revoke article 50 (and stay in the EU permanently), then by default there is a no deal exit on the 29th March. Therefore it is not in her power to take it off the table. On a side note, the PMs spokeswomen said if the EU offered to facilitate an extension of Article 50, Britain would say No. Given the above, I find that very hard to believe.

There are G20 meetings going on, but apart from that little major data of note. However expect trade talks to come to the fore, and potential risk on sentiment to be a major driver.

Global equity markets are mixed, Dow +0.04%, S&P 500 +0.23%, FTSE -0.40%, DAX -0.12%, CAC -0.34%, Nikkei -0.20%, Shanghai -0.42%.

Gold prices are barely worth a mention down 0.2% trading at $1,292 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are slightly down 0.8% trading at $51.77 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD 0.6764 -0.3%
NZDEUR  0.5938 -0.2%
NZDGBP 0.5210 -1.3%
NZDJPY 73.82 -0.1%
NZDAUD 0.9406 -0.5%
NZDCAD 0.8978 -0.2%
GBPNZD 1.9188 1.3%

 

 

 

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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at xe money transfer in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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