Currencies
Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950
10th Nov 23, 7:54am
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Fed-speak: Barkin & Bostic lean dovish, mild downside bias for dollar. S&P500 attempting to achieve longest winning streak (9 days) since 2004. NZD meets resistance above 0.5950
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
10th Nov 23, 7:47am
US 10-year rate up 9bps from the NZ close to 4.57%, after trading as low as 4.47%. Strong demand for NZ bonds continues, taking the fall for the month to 55bps for the 10-year
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
9th Nov 23, 8:03am
Oil prices show the largest moves; Brent crude down over 2% to go sub-USD80 per barrel. NZ rates follow prior offshore moves to close at fresh multi-week/month lows
Fed officials push back against last week's dovish interpretation. USD reverses some of last week's sell-off despite yields failing to bounce. DXY entered a consolidative phase from early October, may breakout on CPI
9th Nov 23, 8:00am
Fed officials push back against last week's dovish interpretation. USD reverses some of last week's sell-off despite yields failing to bounce. DXY entered a consolidative phase from early October, may breakout on CPI
Fed officials out in force this week to remind that inflation is still too high. RBA delivers consensus 25bps hike to 4.35%; AUD falls in response
8th Nov 23, 8:47am
Fed officials out in force this week to remind that inflation is still too high. RBA delivers consensus 25bps hike to 4.35%; AUD falls in response
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
8th Nov 23, 7:55am
Oil prices have fallen close to 3%, to the lowest level in more than 3 months, on concerns about global growth following weak Chinese trade data. US officials emphasised the need to bring inflation closer to 2%
Longer dated yields arrest last week's slide, modestly higher to start week. Tight range trading the order of play. Numerous Fed officials speaking: will they kick back against dovishness?
7th Nov 23, 7:58am
Longer dated yields arrest last week's slide, modestly higher to start week. Tight range trading the order of play. Numerous Fed officials speaking: will they kick back against dovishness?
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
7th Nov 23, 7:40am
US equities consolidate last week's hefty gains. US Treasury yields push higher, after last week's hefty fall. The RBA, the laggard of the global policy cycle, likely to hike
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
6th Nov 23, 9:09am
Roger J Kerr says US dollar bulls are hastily reversing their long-USD positions as the scenario for next year of US interest rates decreasing well ahead in time of all others starts to become a higher probability
Bond yields notably lower for a third day, US 10-year yield dips below 4.50%. Soft US jobs report: 150K jobs & 3.9% jobless rate; stick a fork in the Fed. ISM Services PMI falls to lowest level in 5 mths; data flow turning
6th Nov 23, 8:51am
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Bond yields notably lower for a third day, US 10-year yield dips below 4.50%. Soft US jobs report: 150K jobs & 3.9% jobless rate; stick a fork in the Fed. ISM Services PMI falls to lowest level in 5 mths; data flow turning
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
6th Nov 23, 7:52am
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to a rally across global bond markets boosting risk sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in October below estimates of 180k. The US ISM services PMI fell to a 5-month low
Bond yields extend rapid pullback, 10-year yield ~35bips off recent high. BoE delivers widely expected on-hold decision. Equities up, yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down
3rd Nov 23, 8:31am
Bond yields extend rapid pullback, 10-year yield ~35bips off recent high. BoE delivers widely expected on-hold decision. Equities up, yields down, crude up, gold up, US dollar down
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
3rd Nov 23, 8:00am
Risk sensitive assets rise investors confident aggressive monetary tightening cycle is ending. The Bank of England left rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive month which was in line with expectations
Stuart Talman reviews the US Fed update. Fed delivers widely expected on-hold decision, maintains tightening bias. Bond yields fall on soft ADP/ISM Mfg & Treasury refinancing announcement
2nd Nov 23, 9:46am
Stuart Talman reviews the US Fed update. Fed delivers widely expected on-hold decision, maintains tightening bias. Bond yields fall on soft ADP/ISM Mfg & Treasury refinancing announcement
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
2nd Nov 23, 8:25am
US Fed leaves rates on hold for a second consecutive meeting. US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement notes intention to slow pace of longer term debt issuance which drives much lower Treasury yields, led by the long end
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
1st Nov 23, 7:48am
BoJ loosens grip on yield curve control policy. Despite that, the yen shows a notable decline. US employment cost index slightly higher than expected. Euro area data shows economic contraction in Q3 and weaker inflation
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
31st Oct 23, 7:46am
Risk appetite starts week on a positive note. Oil prices down 3%. Eyes on bank of Japan. US Treasury markets jittery
Risk sentiment dented as Gaza ceasefire reports prove false. Nasdaq & S&P500 log worst October in 5 years. Bond yields ease on safe haven flows. A mammoth week ahead: BoJ may upstage the US Fed
30th Oct 23, 8:55am
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Risk sentiment dented as Gaza ceasefire reports prove false. Nasdaq & S&P500 log worst October in 5 years. Bond yields ease on safe haven flows. A mammoth week ahead: BoJ may upstage the US Fed
Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
30th Oct 23, 8:14am
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Roger J Kerr says an RBA interest rate hike next week would certainly propel the AUD/USD exchange rate higher, and the NZD/USD rate will follow
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
30th Oct 23, 7:32am
Global equities ended the week on a soft note with geopolitical risks and an underwhelming corporate earnings season undermining market sentiment. US core PCE deflator rose 3.7% annual rate in September
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3
27th Oct 23, 7:48am
Investor risk sentiment remains fragile with global equities extending recent losses amid disappointing earnings from large US tech companies. The ECB held rates steady at 4% as expected. US GDP expanded at a healthy 4.9% annual rate in Q3
NASDAQ slammed (over -2%) following Alphabet earnings disappointment. Despite concerning geopolitical newsflow long dated US yields resume ascent. Hot quarterly AUS CPI report locks in a resumption of RBA tightening cycle
26th Oct 23, 9:20am
NASDAQ slammed (over -2%) following Alphabet earnings disappointment. Despite concerning geopolitical newsflow long dated US yields resume ascent. Hot quarterly AUS CPI report locks in a resumption of RBA tightening cycle
US equities lost ground as treasury yields moved sharply higher impacting risk sentiment. The Bank of Canada left rates steady at 5% as expected. Markets look ahead to the ECB meeting this evening and US Q3 GDP data
26th Oct 23, 7:49am
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US equities lost ground as treasury yields moved sharply higher impacting risk sentiment. The Bank of Canada left rates steady at 5% as expected. Markets look ahead to the ECB meeting this evening and US Q3 GDP data
Softer European PMIs, stronger US PMIs support stronger USD. NZD/AUD grinds down further. US 10-year rate sustains the fall to below 5%
25th Oct 23, 7:49am
Softer European PMIs, stronger US PMIs support stronger USD. NZD/AUD grinds down further. US 10-year rate sustains the fall to below 5%
US 10-year yield pierces 5% before aggressively rejecting, pulls back to 4.84%. Catalyst: Ackman tweet; hedge fund manager exits short bond trade. US equities attempt to arrest 4-day slide; S&P500 tests critical 4200 support
24th Oct 23, 8:43am
US 10-year yield pierces 5% before aggressively rejecting, pulls back to 4.84%. Catalyst: Ackman tweet; hedge fund manager exits short bond trade. US equities attempt to arrest 4-day slide; S&P500 tests critical 4200 support
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