Currencies
Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower
26th Jun 23, 9:51am
Soft PMIs: manufacturing contracts further, services growth slowing. US equity markets end their winning streak amid sentiment shift. NZD extends lower
Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
26th Jun 23, 9:14am
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Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
Global equity markets fell on Friday contributing to the largest weekly pullback since the US regional banking crisis began in March amid concerns about the growth outlook. Advance PMIs for June suggest that the Eurozone economy has slowed sharply
26th Jun 23, 7:32am
Global equity markets fell on Friday contributing to the largest weekly pullback since the US regional banking crisis began in March amid concerns about the growth outlook. Advance PMIs for June suggest that the Eurozone economy has slowed sharply
US initial jobless claims sustain recent move higher. US equities unperturbed by higher rates, with small to modest increases. Both BoE and Norges Bank upscale hikes to 50bps
23rd Jun 23, 8:05am
US initial jobless claims sustain recent move higher. US equities unperturbed by higher rates, with small to modest increases. Both BoE and Norges Bank upscale hikes to 50bps
A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes
23rd Jun 23, 8:01am
A flurry of central bank activity ensues to counter recent hot inflation reads. Bank of England and Norges Bank deliver non-consensus 50bps hikes
Federal Chair Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to slow down growth and contain price pressures. Markets are pricing about a 75% chance of a 25bps rate hike at the July meeting. UK inflation continues to run hot
22nd Jun 23, 7:57am
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Federal Chair Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to slow down growth and contain price pressures. Markets are pricing about a 75% chance of a 25bps rate hike at the July meeting. UK inflation continues to run hot
Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering
22nd Jun 23, 7:50am
Powell's 2-day testimony kicks-off, hawkish comments persist - more hikes. US equity markets dismiss Fed hawkishness, recover early session losses. US bond yields and the dollar fall although risk rally appears to be faltering
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
21st Jun 23, 8:01am
Risk sentiment soft again. Rates much lower across the UK, Europe, supporting lower US Treasury yields despite US housing starts unexpectedly surging 21.7% in May
Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging
21st Jun 23, 7:57am
Further China stimulus fails to boost risk sentiment, NZD & AUD struggle. US equity bulls may be exhausted, quarter-end profit taking emerging
Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory
20th Jun 23, 8:45am
Following the Q2-2023 risk rally mean reversion may be the trade heading into Q3-2023. Risk assets flash exhaustion signals ascending into overbought territory
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
20th Jun 23, 7:45am
Negative market sentiment prevails over China; weaker yuan drags NZD and AUD lower; NZD goes sub-62 USc. European rates higher, more so for UK than Euro area; NZ-UK 10 year rate spread goes negative
Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
19th Jun 23, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher
19th Jun 23, 7:49am
US stocks log modest losses but Nasdaq extends winning streak to 8th week. Not too hot, not too cold data-flow & Fed expectations drive key stocks higher
The Yen fell on the Bank of Japan decision to leave monetary policy settings unchanged. EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY make multi-year highs. US consumer sentiment rose more than expected. Five-to-10-year inflation expectations dipped to 3.0%
19th Jun 23, 7:25am
The Yen fell on the Bank of Japan decision to leave monetary policy settings unchanged. EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY make multi-year highs. US consumer sentiment rose more than expected. Five-to-10-year inflation expectations dipped to 3.0%
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
16th Jun 23, 7:50am
Soft US data support lower Treasury yields; plays to market disbelief of Fed's projection for more rate hikes. But US equities power on up. ECB hikes 25bps, revises up inflation forecasts, gives hawkish guidance; another hike in July "very likely"
Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser
15th Jun 23, 9:39am
Fed on hold but with hawkish dot-plots: 12 of 18 FOMC officials call for at least 2 more hikes. US equities and risk assets initially sell-off then recover after Powell's presser
Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
15th Jun 23, 7:56am
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Fed pauses rate hike cycle as expected but projections show, surprisingly, two more hikes this year. US PPI data points to moderating inflation data. Treasuries curve flattens
US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected
14th Jun 23, 8:34am
US CPI broadly in-line, core inflation rises at slowest rate since November 2021. Implied probability of Fed 25bps hike falls from 20%+ to ~5%. A hot UK employment report locks in BoE hikes, 5%+ rate expected
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
14th Jun 23, 7:55am
US CPI figures broadly as expected; annual headline and core figures both clearly heading lower. Paves the way for Fed to skip hike tomorrow, but core not weak enough to quash chance of a future hike. Treasury yields higher across the curve
Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday
13th Jun 23, 9:42am
Risk sentiment positive ahead of pivotal events, US equities extend higher. Market pricing assigns a ~25% implied probability of Fed hike on Thursday
US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
13th Jun 23, 7:52am
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US equities push higher, US Treasuries curve steepens a little. NZD down slightly, AUD up slightly, GBP underperforms
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
12th Jun 23, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls
12th Jun 23, 8:32am
Nasdaq logs 7th consecutive week of gains, S&P500 fourth straight. Expectations of a Fed pause/skip & AI frenzy emboldens stock bulls
US equities edge higher in quiet markets. Traded volumes were the lowest since October last year. US Treasury yields higher with yield curve continuing recent flattening trend
12th Jun 23, 7:22am
US equities edge higher in quiet markets. Traded volumes were the lowest since October last year. US Treasury yields higher with yield curve continuing recent flattening trend
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
9th Jun 23, 7:58am
US initial jobless claims show a solid increase to 261,000, further confirmation of an easing in labour market pressures. This drove US Treasury yields and USD lower. Support for bonds also came from lower oil prices on reports of US-Iran nuclear talks
