Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union raised all its <1yr rates today, making all their offer for these shorter terms 6% or more.
POINTED MARKET STUDY
The Commerce Commission released its draft report on its inquiry into the retail banking sector. By implication, it is also a review of how the RBNZ deals with the 'playing field' aspects of the banking system. The responses to this draft should be fun to watch. More here.
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RAISED
Following the release of its half year results, Dairy giant Fonterra has paid its shareholder farmers a 15c interim dividend and now narrowed its forecast milk price range - although the 'midpoint' for this is still $7.80.
RECESSION AS GROWTH STALL IN 2023
Economic activity shrunk -0.1% in the December quarter, after a -0.3% fall in Q3. Yes, that is two consecutive retreats. Per capita gross domestic product dropped -0.7% during the December quarter as retailers offloaded inventory.
FARMERS REACT WITH THEIR GUT FEELINGS
A Rabobank survey shows farmer confidence in the broader agri economy has risen strongly for the second consecutive quarter but remains at low levels. Ditto for own business prospects, but growers are the most optimistic, sheep and beef farmers the most pessimistic.
EASING DEMAND?
There was only $920 mln bid for the $500 mln on offer at today's NZ Government Bond tenders, a moderate level of demand. It is noticeable because it follows a run of four tenders where the bids were very high and well above $1 bln each.
SINKING LID
The February credit card data data released today was, as they say, 'cold coffee'. Total credit limits were $21.0 bln in February, the lowest value since February 2015. The amounts owed were however only $6.25 bln Spending using credit cards is essentially flat.
FASTER. SAFER?
New rules are to be in place setting variable speed limits around schools during pick-up and drop-off times and enable 110km/h speed limits on new and existing Roads of National Significance. The new approach will consider economic impacts - including travel times - and that the views of road users and local communities are taken into account, alongside safety.
LOW COST SUPPORT
Rural Support Trusts in Canterbury and Otago are getting extra funding to be able to help farmers suffering from the spreading drought in these reagions. Marlbourough already has this assistance. But only $70,000 is being allocated.
SOME ASSISTANCE
Assistance for homeowners impacted by severe weather is coming. Temporary Accommodation Assistance will soon be available to more people who can’t live in their homes due to the severe weather events of 2022 and 2023.
RAMPING UP
The Property Council says there were 1,307 Build to Rent dwellings delivered in 2023 nationally. Plus there are 850 Build to Rent dwellings under construction and a further 3,395 in the development pipeline. That means BTR dwellings coming in 2024 will be more than three times the 2023 level. The industry is seeking sweetheart deals and exemptions relating to OIO approvals and being able to claim depreciation for tax reasons (when clearly there isn't any real economic depreciation. That is the value of the dwelling will likely be more not less at the end of most years in the future). The evidence is that BTR development happens even if those perks aren't there. But hey, if you can get public officials to give them to you, why not try? Paying for the right lobbyists works.
REMINDER
If you haven't done so yet, we would appreciate it if you could complete our car insurance survey. More about it here. The survey itself is here.
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Update: Wrong! They actually fell sharply. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged again at 5.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.09%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.63% and down -13 bps in the earlier RBNZ fix to 4.50%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.26%. Their 2yr is now at 4.59, so the curve is now inverted by only -33 bps, a notable flattening.
MIXED FORTUNES FOR EQUITIES
Wall Street closed after the Fed dot-plot review with a +0.9% gain, liking what they heard. Tokyo has topped that and opened up +1.5%. Hong Hong has gone further, up +1.8% at their open. Shanghai however is only up +0.2% as they open. Singapore is up +0.7% in early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5%, but the NZX50 is only up +0.1% in late trade.
OIL PRICES MIXED
Oil prices edged higher today (Thursday) in the US with their WTI price up +50 USc at US$83.50/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday at US$86/bbl.
GOLD HITS NEW ATH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42/oz at US$2202/oz, and that is another all time record high.
NZD DRIFT BELIES BIG COMPONENT CHANGES
The Kiwi dollar is up nearly +½c against the US currency from earlier in the day at 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at just over 92 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 has changed little on a net basis.
BITCOIN RISES STRONGLY
The Bitcoin price has risen sharply, now at US$67,909 and up +8.2% since this time yesterday. But volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 6.0%.
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