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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; eyes on banking market study, Fonterra ups dividend, GDP shrinks especially per capita, swaps unchanged, NZD shifts, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; eyes on banking market study, Fonterra ups dividend, GDP shrinks especially per capita, swaps unchanged, NZD shifts, & more
[updated]

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union raised all its <1yr rates today, making all their offer for these shorter terms 6% or more.

POINTED MARKET STUDY
The Commerce Commission released its draft report on its inquiry into the retail banking sector. By implication, it is also a review of how the RBNZ deals with the 'playing field' aspects of the banking system. The responses to this draft should be fun to watch. More here.

DIVIDEND PAYOUT RAISED
Following the release of its half year results, Dairy giant Fonterra has paid its shareholder farmers a 15c interim dividend and now narrowed its forecast milk price range - although the 'midpoint' for this is still $7.80.

RECESSION AS GROWTH STALL IN 2023
Economic activity shrunk -0.1% in the December quarter, after a -0.3% fall in Q3. Yes, that is two consecutive retreats. Per capita gross domestic product dropped -0.7% during the December quarter as retailers offloaded inventory.

FARMERS REACT WITH THEIR GUT FEELINGS
A Rabobank survey shows farmer confidence in the broader agri economy has risen strongly for the second consecutive quarter but remains at low levels. Ditto for own business prospects, but growers are the most optimistic, sheep and beef farmers the most pessimistic.

EASING DEMAND?
There was only $920 mln bid for the $500 mln on offer at today's NZ Government Bond tenders, a moderate level of demand. It is noticeable because it follows a run of four tenders where the bids were very high and well above $1 bln each.

SINKING LID
The February credit card data data released today was, as they say, 'cold coffee'. Total credit limits were $21.0 bln in February, the lowest value since February 2015. The amounts owed were however only $6.25 bln Spending using credit cards is essentially flat.

FASTER. SAFER?
New rules are to be in place setting variable speed limits around schools during pick-up and drop-off times and enable 110km/h speed limits on new and existing Roads of National Significance. The new approach will consider economic impacts - including travel times - and that the views of road users and local communities are taken into account, alongside safety.

LOW COST SUPPORT
Rural Support Trusts in Canterbury and Otago are getting extra funding to be able to help farmers suffering from the spreading drought in these reagions. Marlbourough already has this assistance. But only $70,000 is being allocated.

SOME ASSISTANCE
Assistance for homeowners impacted by severe weather is coming. Temporary Accommodation Assistance will soon be available to more people who can’t live in their homes due to the severe weather events of 2022 and 2023.

RAMPING UP
The Property Council says there were 1,307 Build to Rent dwellings delivered in 2023 nationally. Plus there are 850 Build to Rent dwellings under construction and a further 3,395 in the development pipeline. That means BTR dwellings coming in 2024 will be more than three times the 2023 level. The industry is seeking sweetheart deals and exemptions relating to OIO approvals and being able to claim depreciation for tax reasons (when clearly there isn't any real economic depreciation. That is the value of the dwelling will likely be more not less at the end of most years in the future). The evidence is that BTR development happens even if those perks aren't there. But hey, if you can get public officials to give them to you, why not try? Paying for the right lobbyists works.

REMINDER
If you haven't done so yet, we would appreciate it if you could complete our car insurance survey. More about it here. The survey itself is here.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Update: Wrong! They actually fell sharply. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged again at 5.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 4.09%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.63% and down -13 bps in the earlier RBNZ fix to 4.50%. The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps at 4.26%. Their 2yr is now at 4.59, so the curve is now inverted by only -33 bps, a notable flattening.

MIXED FORTUNES FOR EQUITIES
Wall Street closed after the Fed dot-plot review with a +0.9% gain, liking what they heard. Tokyo has topped that and opened up +1.5%. Hong Hong has gone further, up +1.8% at their open. Shanghai however is only up +0.2% as they open. Singapore is up +0.7% in early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5%, but the NZX50 is only up +0.1% in late trade.

OIL PRICES MIXED
Oil prices edged higher today (Thursday) in the US with their WTI price up +50 USc at US$83.50/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1 from this time yesterday at US$86/bbl.

GOLD HITS NEW ATH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$42/oz at US$2202/oz, and that is another all time record high.

NZD DRIFT BELIES BIG COMPONENT CHANGES
The Kiwi dollar is up nearly +½c against the US currency from earlier in the day at 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at just over 92 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 has changed little on a net basis.

BITCOIN RISES STRONGLY
The Bitcoin price has risen sharply, now at US$67,909 and up +8.2% since this time yesterday. But volatility of the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 6.0%.

Daily exchange rates

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Opening daily rate
Source: NZFMA
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

154 Comments

JA just slammed pollies who create fear... F**k OFFFFFF.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/former-prime-minister-jacinda-ar…

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14

She has Flying - currently in Italy - 

She spoke at the University of Bologna in Italy, where she was awarded the Sigillum Magnum, the university’s highest honour.

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3

What did she speak about and what did she receive the SM for? Turning up? 

The whole ex-political celebrity circle jerk is nauseating. 

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21

Why else would you take a crappy, low paying job if you couldn't milk the free publicity and notoriety for the rest of your life.

I think she actually believed what she was doing was right. Unfortunately feeling strongly about something being good, doesn't necessarily mean it'll work or be received with the same goodwill.

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9

"...crappy, low paying job..." Yeah nah.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/01/how-jacinda-ardern-s-an…

"The empress has no clothes"

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7

471k isn't a great deal of money to basically give up most of your life for years on end, with all the public scrutiny, now matter how good or bad someone might be at it.

Unless you were incapable of making that sort of bank some other way.

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5

Unless you were incapable of making that sort of bank some other way.

If she hadn't been PM I doubt she would have. As Richard Prebble often says, being and MP is often the best job most of the politicians ever have

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5

He should know.... one of the least trustworthy people ever to wear the title Hon.

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6

But he's a thinking man. Proof: he wrote a book called "I've been thinking." :D

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2

DP

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0

They all believe what they’re doing is right. But she seems to have been a hopeless idealist. Not evil just naive. 

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5

"The banality of evil"

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If that’s what you choose to believe. 

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3

Angry old white men generally descend into hyperbolic vilification as a way to compensate with whatever demons they're struggling with.  

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I don’t know if they’re all angry old white men or not but they’re definitely triggered by her. Even though she holds no position of influence anymore. 
Just people being people I sposse. 

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7

don't forget the thousands of women and non binary people she screwed over with her government as well who hate her. She was awarded a prestigious uni role in speaking about tech governance, she has neither the skills, ethics or education in that. There is all sorts of reasons to hate someone but hating their lack of ethics in receiving goods, large benefits, large pay and awards they have even less qualifications, completely contradictory actions and skills to get would be one of them. It would be like awarding the nobel prize for medicine to a cigarette exec and them publicly accepting and then using that to boost their career. Jacinda Adern is doing exactly that. It is hard not to detest someone who markets that level of shameful fraud and self congratulation. No honesty is a valid reason to hate her and many men, women and non binary people hate her not only for that but many many other reasons as well.

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3

You can choose to hate her if you want. I got way better things to spend my time and energy on. 

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3

Meh is it no energy for me. For others sure they expend energy. So many people constantly have emotions about politicians and the hatred around the campus for the main parties is tangible. I just have a distaste for dishonesty and lack of ethics (so you can imagine my impression of politicians). Frankly I see most as not having the skills for the ministries they manage and actual malicious intentions in their policy designs. After all look at Grant Robertson and what he did. Shameful at best, massively incompetent if we were using Hanlon's razor and your term "naive". Lets be honest though they were not naive and there are a great many people performing paid actions that are intended to deliberately deceive. The pay equity debacle and cuts to disability funding last year that removed food prep support, removed access to their homes and transport access for disabled people to their GPs in that budget was only some of them.  

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And taxpayers are still paying all her travel expenses.  The gall of it.

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Had hoped she would have had the grace and intelligence to refrain from politicking. That she obviously hasn’t is more than disappointing. Ex Prime Ministers harping about other governments, preceding and succeeding, inevitably find themselves victim to a double edged sword. Muldoon was for instance, a classic example, Lange the opposite. She really needs to review her own proclamations and so on, whilst electioneering in 2017 and then notate the actual outcomes of her prime ministership as relative with an addendum as to the bonfire that her successor soon made of them.

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17

Had hoped she would have had the grace and intelligence to refrain from politicking

It's an industry in itself.

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8

you beat me to it

she did nothing but trade in fear politics for 4 odd years ... divided the country then buggered off

There is no NZ politician / ex politician i despise as much

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21

Ambivalent about Collins but have sympathy for the hospital pass that she had to take after Muller.  Have little time for Hipkins, but comparatively, the ball passed to him by Ardern was a ticking time bomb fit to hospitalise any receiver. No wonder the greatest wannabe Prime Minister NZ has ever had,  failed to put his hand up. Still a clean pair of high heels, hightailing out of town was, if nothing else, exquisite timing.

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I don't think she was as bad as many of her detractors make out, and at least in the first term she did a lot to raise the profile of New Zealand. I never voted for her, but do think at least in the early days she had some good intentions. 

However, to your point, it is on the nose of her to wax lyrical in any way shape or form about the politics of division. She was more than happy to split the country into 'us and them' in all sorts of ways when it was politically expedient to do so. 

Can't blame the current lot for pulling the same stroke ... she proved it works.

(and no, I'm not a gun owner, nor do I own rental properties, and I had all my jibby jabs - even the third one)

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Well put, balanced and fair

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2

Nobody is forcing you to read this, nor does what she say have any effect on you personally. It's ok. It's over. Let it go. Go for a walk.

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17

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana

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Yet here we are, remembering the past and repeating it. 

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If only it were over

the stupi% cow is still making headlines and getting awards FFS

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Yep, she was a superstar. Everyone could see it except angry old Kiwi men.

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I'm don't thing she was a superstar just a good ambassador.

Ignore the angry old Kiwi men on here. My bet is a fair number of them grew up in state houses and are children of assisted passage parents. White trash roots.

 

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My family has been in NZ since 1861 & the only state assistance I have ever received is NZ Super.

Speaking of trash...

 

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Our saviour The Lux speaks fondly of his memories mowing mums state home lawn, then goes on to use that memory to justify kicking people out of state houses. People trashing state houses is a very serious concern, but when they're out on the street, what will they trash next?

Short term thinking that will end sour. Has Mt Eden had a tough time lately or something?

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I get what your saying, it worries me too. But as we currently have families homeless, wouldn’t kicking out a destructive family mean that worst case another family become not homeless anymore? I guess im bias as my mum lives next to kianga ora houses and one family (all others she has tea with) has turned her into a tired, anxious and constantly scared to go outside old lady. 

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25000 people on the State housing waiting list.

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What about the rights and health of the other state house residents being physically and mentally harmed? Do they not deserve a safe home, often many of whom are in more vulnerable states with children. Many have been forced to cars and now excluded permanently from housing after other state house tenants physically assaulted them and threatened the kids. It is not a small thing to allow a violent uncontained murderer who would think nothing of 24/7 terrorism of their neighbours. Including firebombing them.

You think that is something you can brush over and forget that someone has to live with these people who are violent, abusive, unbalanced and unpredictable. If they have kids with them you have to remember you are also subjecting the children of these people to violent, abusive and unstable environments. Leaving them with the violent person is probably the worst thing you can do as it is proven family members & those in trusted in circle are more likely to physically and emotionally abuse the children by them first, more then they would abuse and assault others. This is NZs shame that we leave kids with very violent and abusive people and expect different results decade to decade. Then act surprised when the children are abused or die violent deaths. 

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I completely agree with everything you've noted.

I completely disagree that kicking these people out on the street with no alternative solution will end well. It's simply taking a problem child, kicking them out of home and expecting they'll fix their table manners in order to get invited back in. They will rebel. They aren't coming home.

This approach causes more problems for more people. It's not solving jack shit.

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So let them take the place of the families on the waitlist. Where are those families living btw, oh yeah motels, campsites, hospitals, etc many of whom have severe medical conditions so they are at high risk of medical complications without housing.

Your just saying that we should allow violence to other vulnerable state house tenants because the violent bulllies threaten more violence if they leave; its a worse position. Yeah lets not give in to threats out of fear when in reality we have actual places for people who harm others in public. Sadly violence against neighbours can be treated as a civil matter right up until a death since even protection orders are often ignored. You think it is ok to house an abuser next to the victims of violence and they will not experience ongoing trauma and physical harm. Just letting that continue is really ignorant of the lifelong effects and damage of the abuse itself and just how vulnerable many of the other state house tenants are (many of whom cannot live or function normally in that position because of the very real physical health harm to them). Forcing the victims to move instead is incredibly traumatic as it is punishing the victims of crime in some of the worst ways by stripping their home as well.

BTW they were never going to be completely without options (unlike most disabled people) "In situations where the problem client is not provided another Kāinga Ora home, the agency ensures the tenant has a more suitable housing option, including working with alternative housing providers."

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And free education and affordable housing thanks to other taxpayers, and enrichment during COVID thanks to the same.

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I've been to some isolated backwoods with people that don't speak English, and they love Jacinda, and think fondly of NZ because of her.

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"...people that don't speak English..."

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Pigeon English

"Where you from"

"New Zealand? New Zealand very peaceful. Jacinda very good"

That sort of thing. Note much of this is in places with decent Muslim populations, although even the non Muslims there also praised her pragmatic approach.

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1

Tell that to the groups of women that I know and have witnessed describing her as a useless divisive power hungry b….ch. Good looking women too, I would never describe them as angry old men.

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Not really. I think kiwis overstated her global stardom the same way they fawn over a celebrity visiting. Sure a minority of the global woke loved her. And a minority of the right hated her (the way they do Trudeau or Thunberg) but 99% of the world wouldn’t know or care who she is 

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5

agree, I cannot be bothered thinking about her now she is gone.....

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Same here. Was satisfied enough that she had gone, but from the look of this today, she is not going to stay gone. Still this is not entirely unusual, Key for example has hardly been silent even though heavily associated with NZ’s largest bank and Clark,  his predecessor, has a think tank in place to tell us all what we should be doing. Seems to me at the base of every politicians’ psyche is a compelling urge that they need to be in charge and telling other people how to think.

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she only became PM because Andrew Little, as a unionist, was an unelectable socialist

 

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don't forget the thousands of women and non binary people she screwed over with her government as well who hate her. She was awarded a prestigious uni role in speaking about tech governance, she has neither the skills, ethics or education in that. There is all sorts of reasons to hate someone but hating their lack of ethics in receiving goods, large benefits, large pay and awards they have even less qualifications, completely contradictory actions and skills to get would be one of them. It would be like awarding the nobel prize for medicine to a cigarette exec and them publicly accepting and then using that to boost their career. Jacinda Adern is doing exactly that. It is hard not to detest someone who markets that level of shameful fraud and self congratulation. No honesty is a valid reason to hate her and many men, women and non binary people hate her not only for that but many many other reasons as well.

She is not a superstar, those people have to have skills and celebrity, she is a political ex PM. They have even less celebrity then our current ones and they have even less voice in public unless they are trying to sell something or pivot in a new career. There will not be sold out tickets for her shows even to the level of a minor DJ, even the scalpers would have pause on the value of her words.

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And you care.

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That.  And Hipkins claiming the recession is the fault of the new Govt.  Its like Labour lives in a parallel universe or something.

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15

Well the subject is certainly not over it because she is still spouting. That and only that is what has attracted the attention here.  Suggest taking a walk would be more opportune for the remnants of the praetorian guard.

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"Labour spent too much!"
"There isn't enough money-go-round because of Labour!"

Get a grip mate. The reality is that the new govt could provide measures to reduce the impact of the looming current downturn which is their responsibility and is on their watch, but they are refusing to do so.

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17

Thanks for this comment.  Couldn't agree more.  This is a clueless bunch looking to hide under the blankets for as long as they can.

If I hear Nicola Willis spouting "the New Zealand People..." one more time...

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11

Mooorrreee roooaaaadddss, yawn. We now have the dumbest bunch of idiologues ever to disgrace the halls of decision making. 

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11

Hmm govt wanting drastic cuts in public service. 9% going at MPI.... nek minit... foot and mouth or brown stink bug.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/21/hundreds-of-jobs-set-to-go-at-mpi-amid-search-for-savings/

Edit: although they do "say" no front line staff affected

https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/politics/jobs-cull-gets-underway-at-ministry/

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In a highly automated online economy who is front line ?

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There's a lot of scientists who do risk assessments of risk products and goods, both for import and export. Probably they are considered "back office", but any cuts will soon flow through to the real world. 

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Nope that is considered front line but the managers of their managers, those are back office. the media marketing consultants for materials no one reads, yep back office.

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They define it in the article...

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Most ministries and agencies have a huge amount of non-frontline bloat, especially in the area of ‘policy’

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21

Someone's got to come up with all the neat stuff we should be doing.

Some of our ministries have 2 additional layers of project management when they're building things.

Their projects are the most poorly run and badly planned projects in any sector. And I've worked for Fletchers before.

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"Their projects are ..."

argumentum ad odium

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I've a pretty decent sample size to draw comparison from.

It's not only government, in general, the more energy of a project gets diverted into layers of management, the less efficient things get (although you definitely need some management). And government, especially in recent years, has added layers.

Some of these Ministries do have policy requirements that also add to the problem. The core setup runs contrary to basic principles of production.

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...& PR

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5

Despite contracting / working mostly in the public service in the twilight of my career (still going, just) I tend to agree with you. However, don't underestimate how much of that apparent 'bloat' is the result of programmes of work that inevitably grow with time as things get added on, cabinet decisions to do innocuous sounding stuff that grows and grows, ministers' requests for pet projects etc. To release those resources requires a lot of undoing decisions and amending legislation, which takes, errrm, more bureaucrats!

As I commented below, also look at the actual savings required of agencies vs their staff budgets. The savings are often way higher than total salary bills - meaning that it is spending into the economy that is going to get cut. Private sector and NGO job losses will outweigh those in the public service by my modelling.  

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I have been through a few restructures and cost cutting exercises when working in local and central government.

I have never been through one that improved the performance of the organisation. You're looking at 3-4 months of disruption as people apply for jobs, get stressed about not finding one, the good ones get poached by consultancies who knows they'll get hired to go back into the organisation in a little while. Very little work gets done.

After this you've cut enough people and now the people that have ended up in their new roles get to learn the ropes. Another transition period where not much gets done again. Say 2-3 months. 

During this time morale is pretty low as the people that remain get pissed off that they have lost their workmates and now have even more to do. Another bunch of people leave due to how shit it now is to work there. The organisation goes through a recruitment process where it struggles to attract good candidates because everyone knows the best people left under the last restructure and that the govt/polies don't really respect the work they do. 

This is when all the good people who left get hired back at x3 the cost as consultants as they are the ones who knows what they're doing.

After about a year to 18 months questions start getting asked by senior managers as to why the consultants spend is so high couldn't they just recruit and build internal capability. So the justification for increasing the head count goes in, the new teams start to gel and get into action mode and then voila we're back at square 1.

Some cost cutting politician decides that headcount is too high and things should be done more efficiently and demands cuts. 

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But we have never seen the growth of back office stuff so high as a % util the last 6 years.   We can do 6 years without they.

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Plenty of bloat in the decision making level.   In health there are endless meetings and consultation, possibly for some things totaling months of staff time, when a single decision maker would would knock it off in a morning.  I have seen all day meetings with a hundred or so people.

And the object of the endless roundabouts is not to get the best quality or productivity.  It's to protect all the professional interests and power balance.   For example they talk of meeting consensus.  But that's just code for everybody has a veto on the subject.  So usually no change.

Vast room for productivity increase.  And while a single decisionmaker will get things wrong, arguably that will be less frequent.

And don't be fooled all by the propaganda about managers, the real controllers in the health system are health professionals.

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More announced today in MoH.

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Since we have had Health New Zealand the MoH could be deleted.

I remember well the creation of the Regional Health Authorities of the 1990s.

The MoH was supposed to shrink near out of existence.  But they hung on with many hundreds of staff.  Fought the civil service wars and eventually won.  They had the ear of the Labour party.  RHAs were eliminated.

The whole job could be done with a couple of dozen people part of Health New Zealand.  So delete the MoH.

 

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Cool story, best time to delete it must be when we're already in a recession.

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Public service FTE Jun 18   49,730, Sep 23    64,222, an increase of 14,492 or 29%, pretty sure we can trim 7.5% without to much trouble.

https://www.publicservice.govt.nz/research-and-data/workforce-data-publ….

5 year trend tab

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Yep, by the time the wage savings surpass the redundancy payments, it'll be time to change governments.  

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Now compare it to the savings targets the agencies have been given, which are calculated on their total budgets - ie including the budgets they use to buy services from NGOs and the private sector. For many agencies, the savings they need to find are more than their total salary bill! The job cuts will cascade into communities and across sectors - it is a recipe for a recession. Oh, wait, we've got one of those, a recipe for a long, deep, recession. 

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I used to work for Unilever, same multinational as Luxon.

Std annual plan process included a savings plan to exceed operating oncosts.

And the business plan had to be delivered, OTIF. Failure was not an option.

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Yes, I've managed several outsources / downsizes in the private sector. They often seemed designed primarily to enable announcements that temporarily boosted the share price at the right time. That's why I don't work in the corporate-scale private sector any more! 

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Jfoe.  The world does not run on government spending.  Sure we have people who have well thought out PR plans when removed from the teat.  But don't be fooled.

There is a productive and useful world that is non government.

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Not so much in WGTN

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I have worked extensively in the private sector (engineering), run businesses (tech and hospo), done some big corporate gigs (change mgmt), and spent maybe 60% of my long career in the public sector doing all kinds of interest stuff. I even did some change work in banking (where I developed an unhealthy interest in how money actually works).

The public waste vs private productive thing is *dumb*. We have people doing necessary, important work that makes a difference to the lives of kiwes, and we have people doing bullsh*t jobs - that often only exist because of smart marketing that persuades people they need something they don't actually need at all, or because someone has spotted an opportunity to insert themselves between buyers and sellers. I don't think there are more productive / useful jobs in the private sector than the public. Give me a nurse above another bloody salesperson in Harvey Norman any day of the week.

I also regret to inform you that the world does run on Govt spending - not least because that spending provides the regulatory, policy, and legal frameworks that create and sustain markets. I am always amazed by peoples' desire to achieve some kind of max max small state.  

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Ultimately the sources of govt & public sector funds are taxes on capitalism's private sector profits & jobs (salaries and wages) - directly, indirectly (GST, rates or to fund Govt borrowing). There is no free lunch.

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No, no, no! The sources of funding are governments and commercial banks that are licensed by the state to extend credit (print money) for the private sector.

How do you think countries are born - do you think people start creating money, which is coincidentally all the same, and then govts rock up and demand some of that private sector money?!?

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Remember who ultimately pays the piper.

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So what happens if the Government continues to run a tax surplus?  Will you and I be asked to dig around our vegetable garden for this magic money tree to keep funding core services?  

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There's a chart which shows the increase in spending over the last ~5 years, I've been trying to find it again for days. The most alarming thing is that the largest growth in spend has been on external services, as you say. So that's where the cuts will filter through to once the salaries are done.

We're going DOWN down, hermagerdafuroun.

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Hopefully its the Dept that was tasked with shutting down 25% of NZ farms to avoid climate change.  They wont be missed.  I like eating.

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Don't worry, there'll be plenty of bugs for you to eat.

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Yep, that's the end game polluters, exponential growthists and their denier clown supporters have us on.

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best to own your own cows

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a lot of NZ imports and exports require back office MPI staff to process MPI clearances, we are talking thousands of them every week, so now we will go through the usual cycle when the right get in of everything taking longer to get processed causing delays. and when you question the minister in charge, they will just say it's an operational matter, as for redundances there will be a lot of 65+ that will now step forward to get the payout to retire on NICE, seen it happen time after time 

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You got it False economies, exactly what we were talking about today. Cut backs on MPI, really, they look after the largest part of our economy. Already it is obvious that they can't cope with every day things like NAIT, ETS  and there are out breaks of sheep measles and lots of other pests and animal diseases that need investigating. Animal welfare is something else that needs more monitoring, there are so called farmers out there that need to be checked.

And not to mention border security.

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I personally know of 200+ staff in the health middle man management companies paid by government and those that manage the middle man companies who are literally just forwarding the same information from one office to the next that could be cut entirely. Most the call staff for those companies can also go (150+) as the calls are predominantly why has the docs we handed you not been forwarded to the ministry after weeks. They government handed out 2.2billion dollars for this endeavour to manage 18million in funds released a year. An automated submission form on a single server (not even a high tech one, as the load & number of users is very small), that submits direct to the ministry can replace over 400 people.

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BTR is one of the very few good news stories out there in construction.

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The only thing that trumps fighting inflation is a financial crisis. Looking at the bigger picture from Mother America, to get the cuts, QT taper, and the possible resumption of QE the market believes is a certainty, we first need a few regional banks to fail. Remember, BTFP has not been renewed in the US.

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Liam - is indeed - part of the 'establishment'. He should be working for the Commerce Commission where stating the obvious - however shallow - is considered 'ground breaking'.

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By my reckons we’ve had about 2 years of these such articles. Surely nobody actually places any faith in them by now?

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The Bitcoin price has risen sharply, now at US$67,909 and up +8.2% since this time yesterday. 

I'm glad I'm not stupid enough to try to short ratty. That being said, I was hoping the downturn would be stronger. Someone on interest dot co was chirping about dumping Etheruem for Solana (pretending to be a trader is not good for mental health or strategy), but everything bounced back.  

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Things haven't got bad enough for Bitcoin to tank big time yet.

Don't worry, when she all goes tits up, I'll trade you some nutrients and calories for your digital magic money.

If it came with a bag of gold also.

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Things haven't got bad enough for Bitcoin to tank big time yet.

Don't worry, when she all goes tits up, I'll trade you some nutrients and calories for your digital magic money.

Keep me posted. Question is given that you know the future direction of the BTC price, it makes complete sense for you to position yourself accordingly. 

It's easy for normies to make these pronouncements because of the group banter they had down at the Bowling club bar, but in reality, I suspect most wouldn't know where to start in terms of setting up positions to short BTC. Really no different to a monkey flying a plane. Lots of buttons and flashing lights. Doesn't mean you know what you're doing.  

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I can't say what the future price may or may not be.

But I like a reliably compounding commercial activity. Enough to sink enough cash into to make it worthwhile anyway. I'd just as sooner take the money I'd be prepared to bet, and blow it enjoying myself.

You really should spend less time worrying about and assessing what people do or don't say or think at all these locations. Just try and hang out with them and enjoy their company, and worry about what you're up to. 

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I can't say what the future price may or may not be.

But you just did. Your troll skits unravel like a ball of wool.

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Hi J. C.

Remember when this was said in 1943 ?

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943

---------- 8< ---------

Stay humble stack sats ;-)

 

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No I didn't. 

If the future is the hyperinflation you predict it to be, things are very, very bad. Basic commodities will be scarce. Your Bitcoin might retain value more than a hyper inflated fiat, but the essentials you need to spend it on, will likely outpace it.

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If hyperinflation did get established, I'm betting physical assets like ammunition, medicine, non perishable food and fuel will outperform BTC or specuvestment.

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Pretty safe bet.

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Commodities do not need to be scarce, rather fiat needs to be devalued by printing......

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In a hyperinflation economy, production falls and availability of basic goods declines. So it's price relative to pretty much everything goes up.

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That would be me. As they say, only invest what you can afford to lose. So I invested $110. My mental health is just fine as a consequence.

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No offence intended. 

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None taken

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I just read that comment yesterday & laughed.  Interesting reading about the huge Japanese pension fund adding bitcoin to their portfolio J.C.  

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I wasn't aware. 

Japan’s government pension fund on Tuesday said it is requesting information on “illiquidity assets” such as bitcoin, as part of research into potential new investments.

The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, the world’s largest pension fund by assets under management on several different rankings, said it is looking for “basic information” on illiquid assets other than those in which it already invests.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/japan-pension-fund-explores-bitcoin-as-…

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Maybe its time for ITGUYCoin   I thought about an NZ stablecoin a while back where I could just park funds in gov stock and pocket coupon....     had legs

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US drops off world top 20 happiest countries list for the first time:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/20/world-happiness-report-…

Imagine being sad in the world's most materially abundant country.

Good news is, we're now locked into the same virtual misery machine.

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its no surprise the young are more unhappy in NZ either ...

the game is rigged against them

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The game has always been rigged.

The narrative is rigged against them. "Everything's terrible and we're all doomed" is not really conducive to a happy outlook on your existence.

Like, it's partially true, but most of your own happiness is what you make it.

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"most of your own happiness is what you make it.."

Well thats a theory we are collectively about to be tested on

 

 

 

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I've spent a considerable amount of time witnessing happiness, and the happiest people I've known (as populations) have materially far less than most of us will even come close to.

By all rights most of us should have been born slaves with no money or possessions at all. The fact we have an abundance that 99.9% of all humans ever could barely dream of, is totally lost to most of us.

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Reading a book by Alain de Botton "Status Anxiety" and there is some truth to that. We tend to define our status in relation to those who are close to us, so it doesn't matter that we're technically in the 1% of wealthy people globally, we compare ourselves to our neighbours who just bought a new car/jetski/holiday...

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He's got some good philosophy.

Most humans historically had more of their identity related to being a part of a larger group. Now, thanks to serendipity, it's based on contrasting, usually by looking at what others have, that you don't.

Recipe for misery.

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Indeed, I haven't covered all the solutions yet but I suspect it's about opting out of the wealthy = worthy narrative. 

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Oh the Yvil philosopy!

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There's a whole game surrounding appearances, status, and objects that can be abandoned. Just as you shouldn't worry about what others have, and you don't, you shouldn't worry either about needing to have to present yourself in a certain way.

We really don't need much at all, and what you can give to others, be it love, charity, attention, comfort, etc can improve things for them, and by extension yourself.

If you're looking for a societal solution, that's a lot harder to come by. Probably starts with LSD in the water supply or something.

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"Sorry your employer is trying to screw you down for every dollar they can, and your landlord is trying to screw you out of every dollar you get.  But look on the bright side, you don't need much.  Just show love, comfort and attention.  Don't worry about the charity."

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Not a good recipe for less crime, is it?

Compared to growing up in a better run society.

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Social democracy is a fairly poor substitute for a robust family and community.

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Or, to put it another way, big government isn’t gonna save your arse?

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If your employer not paying you enough and your rent being too high is a lingering, burning existential problem for you, there's a raft of options available to anyone in NZ to attempt to mitigate that.

Or, sit there blaming absolutely everyone else, lament your situation, and hope someone else will magically solve it for you.

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It's a very simple way of looking at things.  I assume you're implying they should move to Australia or upskilling?  Again much easier said than done for many.  Why not just tackle the root issue rather than just telling everyone they should piss off?  

 

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Good book, that.

Discussion on money as a measure of status and moral worth especially pertinent when you see how some of today's biggest beneficiaries of state provision (incl via housing wealth) confuse their receiving of this with their moral character and merit, thinking they deserved and earned it. Vs poor beneficiaries who've obviously not got moral character deserving of similar help.

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Indeed. All the well off, middle age, male whiners here are case and point. 

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Nope it's the fact the boomers have fucked the planet, rigged the system to ensure they are looked after while pulling the ladder up behind them and demonising the young for not being born into abundance.

It's interesting that it's the same across USA, Canada, UK, Australia and NZ. What do they all have in common?  Old rich white guys hold all the power. 

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These are all things that shouldn't have to impact how anyone lives their day to day. The majority of the impact is if that's the core narrative you hold onto, in your mind.

Old men have controlled everything, everywhere, basically forever. Nothing new.

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In some decades they've done better. E.g. providing today's older generations with free education and affordable housing, something those who followed really screwed up for their own selfishness.

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There's a certain historical, financial and social underpinning over and above self interest that makes the 50s and 60s partially unrepeatable.

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Under 35s had their chance to vote for something meaningful like changing the tax base with a land tax. For the second election in a row, they failed spectacularly to tick that box.

Old white men, and women, always vote, all the time.

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Old rich white women in power aren’t any better. I don’t look on Thatcher, Shipley or Richardson very fondly.

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It’s just that far more men have been / are in power.,power corrupts most, regardless of colour, gender etc etc

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They are the exceptions that prove the rule. They were also still a very small minority within a largely white old male elite. The fact you can name them is testament to that. 

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Yes but how do you know that if the elite were 50% women they wouldn’t be just as bad? Most of the elite are male, and most are bad so you conclude that the problem is ‘old white males’

Logically flawed and to be honest pretty sexist.

My experience of life is that whether men or women, the proportion who are decent and fair leaders is pretty similar.
 

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Funny I say the same about able bodied people who are ignorant of deprivation and what removal of human rights actually is. Just look into countries like Sudan or Gambia and we see a whole new story that involves different levels of human suffering unrelated to your ageism and racism. Sadly it is the fact humans are a tribal species, have severe cognitive bias and fail to learn from a diversity of viewpoints.

Every generation takes decades to learn up to the level of the previous one and the only things we have effectively done is set up a democracy that seeks the votes of a majority on changes designed by a extremely privileged minority to pass anything. It does not take a fool to see the flaw that majority voting on anything, especially that which does not consult the minority most disadvantaged by the changes in design, would always have some disadvantages to different groups. The most severely affected group of all changes are those who are disabled who only in the last couple of decades won the right to live outside of imprisoning institutions, to not be tortured daily, to have education and to have access to medical care and we still cannot guarantee them that. In fact by and large near half don't have that now. Hence the death rates & estimated life spans still below the age of 65.

You want a stat well accordingly to Stats NZ wellbeing stats and mental health stats the most severely disadvantaged socioeconomic group is disabled people (over 50% have negative wellbeing stats). Ethnicity and age groups sit around the NZ average which is overwelmingly good wellbeing (over 75%). Women, those LGBTIQ, solo parents are the groups midway between the average and disabled people in that order. No surprise to anyone who knows anything about what effects wellbeing and mental health access. In case you are still being extremely ageist at this point the largest proportion of disabled people are older, who often have better incomes over twice that of disabled people under 65, who have incomes that can be zero to less than half that of a non disabled person on a benefit.

Now lets talk about your "white" "boomers" you crafted in your mind as a boogeyman you so love to hate. I would love to hear more about how your cognitive bias and hatred leads you to need a evil foe to feed all this negative emotion to, to feel control when faced with intractable problems and so you can have a simplified world view. Continuing to fail to construct real inclusive solutions to your problems. How instead of addressing your issues you feed into just an us vs them blame game that simply cycles negative emotion & hatred with no tangible actions. Which is a self destructive and self defeating pathway of hatred.

The fact that your ageism predominantly also targets the least well off socioeconomic group, well that is bloodly isn't it. Especially when the blood drips down their bodies as they are left in severe medical and financial neglect to die in pain younger than most non disabled isn't it. I always find it disappointing and funny when ignorant people exclude disabled people from existence in their models of diversity. Because in your world view they don't deserve to exist with equitable access to basic needs and rights do they. Don't worry I don't expect you to be capable of learning until you have your own significant experience of deprivation of human rights and rights to education & healthcare.

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The USA is just 2 spots ahead of Mexico.  Which obviously isnt true, as otherwise there wouldnt be millions of people pouring across the Mexico-US border right now. 

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Many of those aren't Mexican. I think last year alone 100,000 or so came from China.

Mexico is pretty rough for some people. But they're also closer to mysticism than us, making it easier to be happier with less.

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some of that mysticism comes from the seeds that they grow

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You can get that almost everywhere these days. 

Can only improve happiness in short durations. 

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Even The comb can see the writing on the wall now...

  • Net migration inflows are still booming with past gains still getting revised upward. The fact that consumer spending is falling despite the fastest NZ population growth since 1947 shows how stretched household budgets really are.

and that fact that immigrants have no money....

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Gold hits all time high-up almost $50 oz in one day.  Frankly I was expecting that after reading yesterday that the Evergrade the Chinese Property Developer-and their CEO, who was the richest man in China was exposed as a fraud for the last 3 years with Revenue overstated by more than half.  When you shake the confidence of the Chinese putting their money into property there was only one safe haven left for them, since Bitcoin was made illegal several years ago.

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Breached USD2,200 and 3,600 Kiwi pesos today. 

Silver market cap flipped BTC too.

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Overstated revenues and off balance sheet expenses, what could possibly go wrong,   anyway there is only one cockroach in Chinese property developers......

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Catching up with my Chinese mate who’s just been back for a few weeks, he reckoned it was generally pretty dire over there. Streets, malls etc a lot quieter than they used to be

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Another day in the life of a property investor.  *takes off business hat* "How dare they audit "mom and pop" landlords."

The news is full of cuts in civil servants.

No wonder they need a prune. I got this email in today asking us to supply precise details on smoke alarm positions and expiry dates and phtos for all properties we have submitted bonds for over the last 12 months. Who is going to reimburse us for the wasted time collectiing and collating this useless information.

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Someone restore their dignity!

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This would never happen under National.  

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