What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; no retail rate changes, rents down, GDP up, more bond issuance, cost of living & economy health top issues, swaps stable, NZD dips, & more

[updated]

19th Jun 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. Details here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report here either. Update: A late change from Westpac, cutting -10 bps from its 32-day NoticeSaver to 3.00%. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RENTS DROPPING
Advertised rents on Trade Me Property are -3.1% lower than a year ago. Advertised rents are dropping around the country but are particularly weak in Wellington.

UP MORE THAN EXPECTED, DOWN PER CAPITA
The economy grew for the second successive quarter following the sharp contraction seen during last year. GDP expanded +0.8% in the March quarter from Q4-2024. But Q4-2025 was revised lower from +0.7% to +0.5%. Year on year, Q1-2025 was -0.2% lower than Q1-2024. Per capita, it was -1.2% lower on that same year-on-year basis. We should also note that after Q1-2025 the global economy has had the US tariff-tax shock and there is evidence our economy is stalling.

STRETCHING THE 'GREEN'
Auckland Council has issued a $100 mln 3-Year Floating Rate Secured Wholesale Sustainability-Linked Bond. Perhaps oddly, Auckland Council is not required to utilise the proceeds from the bonds to finance any specific projects, but the KPI for these bonds is "Native Forest Restoration: Planting of Native Ngahere Stems in the Regional Park Network."

CORPORATE DEBT ISSUANCE PICKS UP
Chapman Tripp, lawyers for the big end of corporate NZ, are noting that debt capital markets are showing clear signs of recovery, with eight issuances since mid-May across both corporate and financial institutions, alongside regular Government and LGFA tenders. All these brought strong demand, they say.

COST OF LIVING & 'ECONOMY' TOP ISSUES
Running since 2018, the latest Ipsos quarterly survey reveals that following a steady decline since May 2024, now more than one in two (55%) consider inflation / cost of living to be the most important issue. Healthcare follows as the second highest concern, while the economy remains the third most important issue, with slight increases (by 2pp) for both issues. Notably, concern for the economy has reached the highest level since February 2021.

NZX50 DRAGS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% today, down -0.5% for the past week. It is down -3.7% since the start of the year although up +7.9% from this time last year. Ryman, Gentrack, Port of Tauranga, and Summerset all gain but declines from Mercury, Mainfreight, Tourism Holdings, and EBOS weigh

STRONG DEMAND
There was $500 mln offered in three maturities at today's NZGB tender. That attracted 108 bids worth $1.725 bln. But only 23 bids were accepted. Despite that, bidders wanted and got higher yields across all three bonds.

SPIERS EXPANDS
Aussie-owned equipment finance ELF Group subsidiary Spiers Finance has appointed Haley Holt as a business development manager, along with Sean Coutts as commercial manager.

OPEN BANKING RULE BREACHES
In Australia, National Australia Bank has paid penalties totalling AU$751,200 after the ACCC issued it with four infringement notices for alleged contraventions of the Consumer Data Right (CDR) rules. The CDR is supposed to underpin open banking. The NZ version is being rolled out here.

POPULATION UPDATE
Also, Australia said its population rose +1.7% in 2024 to 27.4 mln, +445,900 more than at the end of 2023. There are now 8.5 mln people in NSW, 7.0 mln in Victoria, 5.6 mln in Queensland, 1.9 mln in South Australia, 3.0 mln in Western Australia, and less than 600,000 in each of NT, Tasmania, and the ACT. (For reference, New Zealand's population was 5.3 mln at the same date.)

NO JOBS GROWTH
And staying in Australia, they said they had 14.6 mln people employed in May, down a marginal -2500 from April mainly because there was a sharp fall in the number of part-timers employed, down -41,200 which was more than the gains in full-time roles (+38,700). Their jobless rate stayed unchanged at 4.1%. (NZ = 5.1%.)

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today with a suggestion of softness. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. Notice it isn't falling. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged again at 3.30% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps at 4.24%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.63% but was up +1 bp at 4.61% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now down -1 bp from yesterday to 4.40%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER
The NZX50 is now down -0.3% so far today as risk aversion extends. The ASX200 is unchanged again so far in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.7% in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong is down -1.6% at its open while Shanghai is also down by -0.6%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street sentiment was again not positive and the S&P500 delivered little-change in final Wednesday trade after being as much as +0.6% in morning trade.

OIL LITTLE-CHANGED
The oil price is unchanged from this time yesterday at just over US$75/bbl in the US, and just over US$76.50/bbl for the international Brent price. This no change is despite very elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

CARBON PRICE FIRMS
The carbon price is up +$1 at NZ$57.50/NZU on more trades. No bidders showed up at today's official NZU auction, so it failed. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD IN MINOR SLIP
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$6/oz from this time yesterday at US$3375/oz.

NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at just on 92.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$104,976 and little-changed from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/-0.9%.

MATARIKI
It is a public holiday in New Zealand on Friday, June 20, 2025. We will not have this update tomorrow.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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16 Comments

by Foxglove. | 19th Jun 25, 4:42pm 1750308120

Christchurch City Holdings undertakes more debt. Why the don’t they simply sell their clandestine airport four hours distant in Central Otago. Or is it just that there is no actual market for pies in the sky anymore.

by IT GUY | 19th Jun 25, 4:49pm 1750308591

I like Tarris, always obey speed limits easy cop and they love to sit there.

by Foxglove. | 19th Jun 25, 5:07pm 1750309667

It’s good. Almost like they built a little, bus and gas stop, movie set there and forgot to take it away. NZ needs to make sure its charm of old is retained.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 19th Jun 25, 4:45pm 1750308309

Interesting data coming out about the Aussie Ponzi. Properties are sitting on the market for longer. 83,000 properties currently listed have been sitting there for sale for over 180 days. Sydney the most dire by a country mile - long-term listings up 29% yoy.

He said sellers hanging on to a goal price was to blame, as well as seasonal conditions.

“It’s a combination of unrealistic vendors and not as many buyers out there,” Christopher said. “[In May] there were listings over and above the number in April, which was to be expected because of a lull period because of public holidays and the election.”

Michelle May, principal of an eponymous buyers’ agency in Sydney, said there were many properties sitting on the market that were undesirable properties or had unreasonable prices.

“Real estate selling is incredibly cut-throat and competitive. I know sometimes agents come across vendors who are wholly unrealistic,” she said.

“They want the business so they’ll go, ‘yep, sure, I can sell it for that’. Get the vendor to sign on the dotted line and begin the process of managing the vendor’s expectations.”

https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/why-more-properties-are-sitting-on…

by IT GUY | 19th Jun 25, 4:51pm 1750308689

The Do you need to sell? or just want to sell conversation....

ABC

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 25, 7:16am 1750446964

Called it before, they are 2 years or so behind in the NZ property ponzi tidings. Those moving to Oz bow are pushing it as things will be getting challenging over the next 2-3years. I winder how their unemployment will fare given their mineral buffer

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 19th Jun 25, 5:04pm 1750309489

The GENIUS Act [Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act] passed the U.S. Senate in a landmark 68-30 bipartisan vote last night. This marks the first major federal legislation to regulate stablecoins and digital assets in the U.S.

The bill now moves to the House of Representatives, where Republican leadership is pushing for swift passage, aiming for enactment by July.

Here are the key things you should know:

Establishes a Regulatory Framework for Stablecoins: Only permitted issuers - subsidiaries of insured depository institutions, federally qualified nonbank issuers, or state-qualified issuers - can issue payment stablecoins for use by U.S. persons. Issuers must choose federal or state regulation, with state regulation capped for issuers with less than $10 billion in issuance.

Reserve and Disclosure Requirements: Issuers must maintain one-to-one reserves in U.S. dollars or similarly liquid assets, publicly disclose redemption policies, and publish monthly reserve details.

Consumer Protections: The bill introduces bankruptcy protections for bank depositors and mandates transparency for stablecoin holdings by members of Congress and Executive Branch officials above $5,000.

Anti-Money Laundering and Oversight: Permitted issuers are subject to the Bank Secrecy Act, with the Treasury directed to issue formal rules for monitoring suspicious transactions.

Clarifies Legal Status: Permitted payment stablecoins are not considered securities, but issuers remain under financial regulatory oversight.

Foreign Issuers: Allows foreign stablecoin issuers to operate in the U.S. if they meet comparable regulatory standards as determined by the Treasury.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-landmark-crypto…

by mfd | 19th Jun 25, 5:56pm 1750312605

I wonder how much time they spent talking about the conflict of interest with the Trumps having their own stable coin.

Remember when Trump said he was going to get rid of corruption? Remarkable that some people believed him.

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 19th Jun 25, 6:17pm 1750313842

Well at least you know that it will have to be backed 1:1. Arguably, US domiciled stablecoins should take market share from Tether.

by mfd | 19th Jun 25, 8:42pm 1750322525

Looks like they have been decent enough to include provisions that members of Congress aren't allowed to profit from stable coins, but no such restrictions on the President.

The Republicans would have gone absolutely wild if Biden had been so openly corrupt, but when Trump does it they just roll over.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 25, 7:17am 1750447029

Even the USA knows their currency is done and they need some kind of alternative

by Phoenix (FKA JC) | 19th Jun 25, 5:48pm 1750312112

Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, has publicly warned that oil prices could surge to between $200 and $300 per barrel if military tensions between Iran and Israel escalate further, particularly if these tensions result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2025/06/17/iraqi-minister-warns-of-20…

by Foxglove. | 19th Jun 25, 6:01pm 1750312897

It must have been perplexing at the least post WW1, the ousting of the Ottomans, amongst all the relative Arabic territories and their traditional tribal leaders, to the point of asking all the Allies of the West - why the sudden interest, where have you been up until now.

by powerdownkiwi | 19th Jun 25, 7:50pm 1750319445

Aye.

But he joins a long list of people (Goldman Sachs, once) who talked of 200 and 300 a barrel oil.

It cannot be (in static terms; you can do anything you want numbers-wise with printing and inflation).

At $200 (present USD) a barrel, the whole global economy tanks. Not enough work do-able per dollar. So it will never happen.

But - take Iran's oil away from the global economy, and - the global economy tanks. Less work being done, then feed-back loops.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 25, 7:18am 1750447123

Would the Saudi’s not simply ramp production to capitalise?

by BradJ | 20th Jun 25, 11:05am 1750374336

Auckland council $100m bond to raise funds to plant native trees in parks? Is that good use for ratepayer debt?