A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; some smaller banks cut fixed home loan rates, FHB's borrow+buy more aggressively, jobs data doesn't look flash, Business sentiment 'difficult', swaps stable, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank trimmed its three year fixed rate, but it still isn't as low as the big 4 Aussie bank carded offers. TSB cut its 6 month and 1 year rates, matching the big banks again. SBS Bank trimmed its reverse mortgage rate today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP, WBS and General Finance all changed rates today, all lower. Kookmin Bank is winding down its NZ branch, and we no longer list their TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FHBs RUSH THE HOUSING MARKET ON STABLE HOUSE PRICES
Low equity borrowing by first home buyers hit a record high in May. The average price first home buyers are paying for a home has hardly moved since October last year but record numbers are taking out low equity loans according to analysis in our First Home Buyers Report update.

A $250 MLN MONTHLY HOLE
Joblessness is probably still rising according to the May filled jobs data out today from StatsNZ based on IRD tax data. This monthly filled jobs data shows a slight rise in May, but figures for the previous two months have been revised down. The primary sector is a ray of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy labour market. The same report shows that gross earnings in May 2025 were $15.9 bln. But that was up only +0.7% from the same month a year ago. If they had risen by the CPI's +2.5% that means payroll employees were missing something like $250 mln in earnings that would have kept them from going backwards. (That's $250 mln per month!)

'MIXED BAG'
ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows firms think future looks better, but the present's not great. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner says the business environment continues to be difficult for many.

A 42 MONTH HIGH
Bank home loan books jumped almost +$2.2 bln in May from April, the most since November 2021. A small part of that is because non-bank loan books are stringing, bow under $5 bln for the first time since November 2021 too. Mortgage lending is clearly the strongest component of bank lending, rising +5.0% from the same month a year ago, the best  year-on-year rise in 32 months. (Just for the record, business lending is up +0.6% on the same basis, agriculture lending down -1.0%. Mortgages are the game at present.)

RISING INTEREST IN LOWER INTEREST
Despite interest rate offers from banks going down and down, the amount households are poking into term deposits is going up, and not just marginally. They rose +$1.2 bln in May to reach $143 bln and a new all-time record amount parked in these low risk savings. Almost all of this rise however was by transfers from current and at-call savings accounts.

NZX50 FLATLINES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is unchanged so far today, but up +0.4% for the past week. It is down -3.7% since the start of the year although up +6.7% from this time last year. Heartland, Ryman, Scales, and Kathmandu rise; Fletcher, Mercury, Summerset and Infratil fall to start the week. Our update to the Mainfreight profile for their full-year will be completed very soon, perhaps by the time you read this.

SIGN OF THE TIMES
KiwiSaver funds are reporting that there is no rush this year by KiwiSaver members to take advantage of the 'free' $521 Government top-up. To get that, you need to have contributed at least $1042 to your KiwiSaver account. That this is a bar too high for increasing numbers of members is a sign of the times.

BUPA IN THE DOCK
In Australia, their competition watchdog is suing BUPA over members’ entitlements to private health insurance benefits for certain claims, affecting thousands of consumers over a period of more than five years. BUPA has admitted to engaging in misleading or deceptive conduct and making false or misleading representations by advising members they were not entitled to private health insurance benefits for their entire claim, when in fact this was not the case. They have also admitted to engaging in unconscionable conduct in connection with its assessment of 388 Mixed Coverage claims.

STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN
Meanwhile, the NSW coast, including Sydney, is being lashed with more wild weather. Victoria is in line too.

HANGING IN THERE
In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.

SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely firmish again today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.28% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.18%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.65%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps at 4.57% but was up +3 bps at 4.53% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +2 bps from this morning, back to 4.29%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.1% so far today. The ASX200 is up +0.5% in Monday afternoon trade. Tokyo is up another +1.6% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.5% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.1%. Wall Street futures suggest the S&P500, which ended at an all-time high on Friday, will power up from there by +1.2% when it opens again tomorrow.

OIL PRICES DIP INTERNATIONALLY
The oil price is again unchanged at just over US$65/bbl and down almost -US$1 to US$66.50 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price has dipped -50c to NZ$58.50/NZU on few trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6/oz from thsi morning's open at US$3279/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this morning at 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.1 where we opened the week.

BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$108,544 and up +0.9% from this morning. Volatility has still been low, now at just on +/-0.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».