A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; Barfoots positive, mortgage stress rises, dairy prices weak, log demand tepid, banks launch unimpressive switching service, swaps mixed, NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank said it will cut some fixed rates tomorrow. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Westpac trimmed its TD rates for terms 5 months and shorter. And the Cooperative Bank will trim a couple too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

END OF AUTUMN SALE VOLUMES BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Barfoot & Thompson's average and median selling prices both increased in June from May, but unsold June stock levels hit a 17 year high giving buyers plenty of choice.

THE RISE OF STRESSED BORROWERS
The latest Reserve Bank figures show that while mortgage interest rates have been falling the amounts of stressed housing lending are still going up.

'SWITCHING MADE SIMPLE'
Bank-owned PaymentsNZ, the clearing system operator that manages the inter-bank payment activity, today launched a new service that they claim will make switching banks 'simple' for regular customers. More here. Their new switching process lets you move payment instructions – including direct debits and automatic payments – and saved payees to a new bank. If you’re closing your account with your current bank, you can also choose to move your account balance. But you will still need to tell organisations and people who initiate payments to you (like your employer) about the new arrangements. Most retail banks are in this new service.

PRICE LIMITS TESTED & DISCOVERED
The overnight dairy auction came in as weak as the derivatives market suggested it might. The SMP price fell -1.7%, but only to match the prior week's Pulse event. However the more important WMP price fell -5.1% and back to levels last seen at the beginning of the year. One local reason may have been the sharp increase in volumes offered, +10,000 tonnes more than at the prior event two weeks ago, and +6.7% more than the event in the same week a year ago. This volume offer jump came as milk production rose in all key producing regions (except Australia). Domestic milk production in China is struggling and the lower prices today saw Chinese buyers return today with greater than expected demand.

TEPID LOG DEMAND
PF Olsen said log prices were unchanged in June but domestic demand was weak. On the export front, Chinese demand was low but consistent although it is facing a summer slowdown. Indian demand awaits bilateral trade talk outcomes.

NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today, and up +2.6% for the past week. It is down -2.2% since the start of the year although up +8.6% from this time last year. Infratil, Auckland Airport, a2 Milk and Oceania lead the gainers, while Gentrack, Vulcan Steel, Skellerup and Tourism Holdings decline. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.4% today.

AUSSIE RETAIL HANGS IN THERE
In Australia, retail sales rose marginally in May to be +3.3% higher than year-ago levels. For context, Australian CPI was up +2.4% in the year to March, up +2.1% in their monthly inflation indicator for the year to May. So they have been getting 'real' volume increases although that may have faded recently. And this recent fade may bolster the case for a July 8 RBA rate cut.

AUSSIE BUILDING CONSENTS RISE
Meanwhile Australian building consents stopped falling in May as they had done in April, and are now +6.5% higher than May 2024. Multi-unit buildings are back driving the increase. The RBA's May 21 rate cut is getting the credit.

SWAP RATES MIXED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today, perhaps softer at the short end, firmer for longer durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.29% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.14%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 4.53% and was down another -2 bps at 4.49% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is now up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.25%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The NZX50 is now up +0.5% so far today. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in Wednesday afternoon trade. Tokyo is down another -1.0% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.8% at its open while Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street dipped in Tuesday trade with the S&P500 closing down -0.1% but still near its record high.

OIL PRICES TICK UP MARGINALLY
The oil price is +50c firmer at just under US$65.50/bbl and just over US$67 for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE ON HOLD
The carbon price has held at NZ$58.50/NZU but only because, again, we can't find any trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$19/oz from time yesterday, now at US$3334/oz. Mostly on the weaker USD.

NZD FIRM AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at just on 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 68.3 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN SLIPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,911 and down -1.1% from yesterday. Volatility has still been low, now at just under +/-0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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