Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Unity Money has trimmed more rates today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MORE AFFORDABLE
Home loan affordability for first home buyers is improving steadily. Home ownership is now affordable for typical first home buyers in most parts of the country except Auckland and Tauranga. There is a virtuous pairing of lower asking prices and lower (although recently stable) mortgage interest rates. And in the background, take home pay is rising, even if only modestly. It a combination we haven't witnessed in a generation, maybe longer.
NOT RECOVERING MUCH
There were only 142 tractors sold in June, a recovery from the 115 sold in June 2024 but still well below the ten year average for a June of 183.
A LOW BAR. RETAILERS MUCH MORE CONFIDENT - OF SURVIVING
Retailers are showing renewed confidence in the face of ongoing economic challenges, according to their trade Retail radar survey. The quarterly survey, covering April-June 2025, reveals that 69% of them are confident or very confident their business will survive the next 12 months, a notable increase from 57% in the same quarter last year.
TRADE SURPLUS AGAIN
Led by a very strong +22% rise in dairy exports, June goods exports rose by +$601 mln or +10 to $6.6 bln. But June goods imports rose by +$1.0 bln (which included a $123 mln aircraft from the US) or +19% to $6.5 billion. So we posted monthly trade balance of +$142 mln. In June 2024 we posted a trade surplus of +$577 mln. In June 2023 it was a deficit of -$115 mln. This year imports surged from Singapore (refined petroleum) and Korea (cars). Over the April to June quarter we have posted an unusually positive +2.5 bln surplus.
DEBT DEMAND RISES
There were tentative signs of a recovery in credit demand in Equifax's July Credit Insights report. Data for June showed high-DTI lending rose for both owner-occupiers and investors for the month of June compared to June 2024, with the percentage for first home buyers rising from 2.24% to 6.51%, for other owner occupiers from 5.11% to 9.59%, and for investors from 3.69% to 9.83%. Home loan weekly enquiries were up by almost +16% year-to-date from a year ago, recovering from pre-pandemic levels for the first time since October 2022.
CONVICTED & FINED
Debt collector Law Debt Collection (LDC) and its director John Stuart Campbell have been convicted and fined for misleading conduct. They have been ordered to pay a total of $115,500 in fines and emotional harm reparations for breaching the Fair Trading Act. Both pleaded guilty following a Commerce Commission prosecution.
NZX50 THUDS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is taking it on the chin, but it is still up +1.0% from a week ago. It is now down -1.9% since the start of the year although up +4.1% from this time last year. Sky TV, Oceania, Heartland and Channel Infrastructure gain as Auckland Airport, Gentrack, Freightways and Kathmandu slide.
SOMEONE ELSE COULD DO BETTER
Come and get it - Fletcher puts 'for sale' signs on its problematic construction division. Fletcher Building is now officially looking to sell its construction division, responsible for about 20% of the company's revenues and a large proportion of its headaches.
ANOTHER BIG CORPORATE BOND
Transpower said today it is launching a 5-year unsecured, unsubordinated fixed rate green bonds offer to retail and institutional investors. They want to raise at least $100 mln, but have left the option to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The five year swap rate is about 3.6% and depending on demand will pay a margin over that rate of the settlement date of 0.70% to 0.73%. But there will be no public pool, because all this paper will only be offered through "clients of the Lead Manager, primary market participants and other approved financial intermediaries". The lead manager is Westpac.
EYES ON WMP PRICE
There is another dairy Pulse auction tomorrow for SMP and WMP. The futures market is pricing for a +1.5% rise in SMP but a -4.5% drop in the WMP price. If the WMP fall eventuates it will have taken the WMP price back to late 2024 levels, a fall of 14% from the May peak. If that happens it won't go un-noticed.
ON VULTURE WATCH
In Australia, the vultures are out targeting vulnerable borrowers who are debt stressed. It has ASIC worried and they have launched a review into the debt management and credit repair sector in an effort to protect those experiencing financial hardship. Expect the Commerce Commission here to assess whether it needs to do similar work.
MINUTES, SHMINUTES
Staying in Australia, the RBA released the minutes of its July 8 meeting and they revealed little new. They left its cash rate steady at 3.85% at this meeting, defying market forecasts for a -25 bps cut. The move was passed by majority vote, six in favour and three against. These minutes were full of "wait and see" sentiment, "data dependent" notes. Part of the waiting-to-see is because they doubt Trump will actually do what he threatens. They buy the TACO view apparently.
ISHIBA LOSES THEN 'WINS'
Sentiment in Japan bounced back today as it became a clearer bet that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to remain in office despite the embarrassing performance of his party at the recent upper house elections. But holding on, he will be a damaged leader. The upstart ‘Japanese First’ Sanseito party has emerged as powerful force after these elections, and that was despite a 'secret' Russian campaign to support them (and destabilise Japan) that was exposed before voting.
SWAP RATES HOLD LOWER
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.26% on Monday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.31%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.59% and down -3 bps at 4.55% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps at 4.37%
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is down a sharpish -1.1% in late Tuesday trade. However the ASX200 is unchanged after taking theri hit on Monday.Tokyo is up +0.2% in early trade today. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open and Shanghai is unchanged too. Singapore has also opened down -0.3%. Wall Street opened strongly with a +0.6% gain to a new record high. But that faded in its Monday trade and it was lucky to end with a +0.1% gain on the S&P500.
OIL RETREATS IN THE US, ELSEWHERE NOT SO MUCH
The oil price in the US is down a sharpish -US$2 at just under US$65.50/bbl but down much less to US$68.50 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL ON HOLD
The carbon price is still at NZ$58/NZU with bidders having virtually disappeared. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$36/oz to US$3389/oz.
NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is up +15 bps from this time yesterday at 59.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at just on 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 67.3.
BITCOIN EASES
The bitcoin price is now at US$117,077 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest, now at just on +/-1.2.
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26 Comments
In other news, Warner Brothers Discovery sells Discovery NZ (read: TV3) to Sky for $1.00.
It makes a lot of sense sky doing this.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been formally referred to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for potential criminal prosecution for perjury. The referral is connected to his testimony and communications regarding the $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s flagship Eccles Building in Washington, D.C. The move, initiated by Florida Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna, centers on allegations that Powell provided materially false statements under oath about both the project’s scope and its associated costs.
Powell argued in his testimony that renovations were essential and that prior refurbishments had not addressed all needs. He denied the existence of lavish upgrades, such as private dining or luxury roof gardens.
USD2.5 billion is quite a bit of moolah. Not sure if the US taxpayer is on the hook for any of this. The Fed is supposed to fund its operations primarily from the interest earned on the securities it owns, such as U.S. Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities, and government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) securities.
https://nypost.com/2025/07/21/us-news/house-republican-refers-fed-chair…
this is timely
https://research.santiagocapital.com/p/a-major-shift-in-us-monetary-pow…
The notion of the Federal Reserve's independence has long been a cornerstone of economic discourse in the United States, taught in business schools and economics classrooms as a fundamental principle of the nation’s monetary system.
However, this independence is increasingly being called into question, particularly as the incoming administration seeks to reshape the interplay between monetary policy and governmental authority.
Recent developments suggest a seismic shift may be underway, with the executive branch aiming to consolidate control over monetary policy in alignment with broader national priorities.
In this weeks podcast we dive into the historical context, current tensions, and potential implications of this evolving dynamic, drawing on a detailed analysis of the Federal Reserve's role and the political pressures it faces.
So the Ruskies infiltrated too, the Japanese election. Still Reds under the futon doesn’t quite resonate the same as the Western equivalent.
Younger Japanese (18-39) overwhelmingly voted for the conservative parties compared to the older age groups. The woke mind virus is less pervasive there than in Aotearoa / Aussie. Also, important to note that younger Canadians also voted conservative. They didn't buy into Carney's shiny trinkets and the mindless liberal showboating.
The Americans voted conservative and it's not looking too amazing.
Young Japanese are far more into weird tentacle porn than their elders, who are into old fashioned friction. They're also remaining virgins and single to a much older age, if at all.
They've got a virus, whether it's better or worse than the "woke mind virus", way too hard to say. But a lot less legit than you like to think.
The Dream of the Fisherman's Wife is from 1814. Painted by Hokusai, same guy who painted the famous wave.
Sure, but if you've spent any time recently in a Japanese Manga store, there's a decided age discrepancy between genres and it's weirder the younger you go.
Japanese youths' trend right has nothing to do with Western liberal "wokeness".
JC can't have it both ways. If he says the Japanese system is so superior why are Japanese youth voting against it?
Some pigs are more equal than others
Australia to miss out on tax top-up from multinationals as Trump ends OECD reform
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-22/australia-to-miss-out-on-top-up-…
The deeper the trough, the longer the snout.
Some pigs are more equal than others
“The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”
― George Orwell, Animal Farm
“Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer, and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult…. All that was required of them was a primitive patriotism which could be appealed to whenever it was necessary to make them accept longer working hours or shorter rations. And when they became discontented, as they sometimes did, their discontentment led nowhere, because being without general ideas, they could only focus it on petty specific grievances.”
― George Orwell, 1984
but gambling on property prices may be about to come home to roost .......
feed them petty treaty grievances... one more election and then all hell breaks loose?
"There were only 142 tractors sold in June, a recovery from the 115 sold in June 2024 but still well below the ten year average for a June of 183."
It appears 'investment boost' isnt hitting the mark...even while returns are high.
Lets Go for Growth.... but without heavy equipment....
cost of butter is because people will pay more here is the auction results
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/butter/
will be worse if NZD falls
Average price (USD/MT) $ 7,492
thats 12.48 a kilo if you buy a tonne.... maybe the supermarkets have answers as well
me thinks many are making a few $ in this supply chain
But i think a much better use of Willis's time would be on economic recovery PLEASE
TV1 tonight quoting NW & paknsave losing $1 / 500g sale. Fonterra currently in discussion with Willis.
possible as they may have bought supply at the peak price on futures
to fight the market is dumb.
Willis needs to focus on the big picture not butter prices, this is pathetic
National has 100% lost my party vote, and 90% of that is their ability to promote a financial plan for our future.
they will get my local electorate, but no more 2 ticks from me.
National has 100% lost my party vote, and 90% of that is their ability to promote a financial plan for our future.
Someone can sell you a plan.
Whether they can deliver, is another matter.
This is because politics is the almost antithesis of commercial accumen.
It cost 24 pence for a pound of butter in 1950. Today that pound of butter would cost $16.08 to buy. It has got cheaper over time.
can we do the same thing with power prices please?
from the 1950 NZ yearbook...
Willis needs to focus I buy 4 blocks of butter a month but my power bill?
https://www3.stats.govt.nz/new_zealand_official_yearbooks/1950/nzoyb_19…
Electric Power
Electric-pawer Statistics (p. 462).—Principal data covering all stations for the year ended 31st March. 1950, are summarized below:—
Number of stations96
Persons engaged6,435
Salaries and wages paid£3,032,749
Number of consumers554,640
Number of—
Ranges221,181
Water-heaters256,201
Prime movers (total b.h.p.)974,431
Generator capacity (main and standby) (kW.)679,316
Route-miles of lines40.516
Revenue—
Sales of current—
Retail£8,431,221
Bulk and interchange£4,149,426
Other (including rates)£209,819
Total revenue£12,796,466
Expenditure—
Power purchased (including interchange)£4,173,815
Generating-costs£894,424
Transmission and distribution£1,693,240
Management and general£1,260,093
Capital charges£3,687,310
Total expenditure£11,708,882
Appropriations (including taxation)£996,660
Capital outlay—
Total expenditure to date£83,303,494
Expenditure during year£9,060,712
Units (kWh.)—
Generated (000)3,030,270
Per head of mean population1,602
Sold (retail) (000)2,403,798
We proved by market deregulation that we can be super efficient with agriculture, and fairly mediocre at most else. Almost like we have inherent advantages that make us better at some things, but not at others.
Exactly David you are on to it
A 500ml bottle of water is %3.50... from the dairy. But just half a cent per litre .... from the council. Thats why all those owners in the food and bev supply chain greet you with a smile as you enter and then say come again as you leave
And a refillable water vessel can be had for less than $3.50.
Bottled retail water is the perfect example of how we'll impoverish ourselves for the sake of convenience.
Im my local pak n save the people who purchase a dozen 1 litre bottles a time dont look like they have any savings. I'm flummoxed. Why buy water in bottles.....
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