Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank trimmed its six month TD rate by -5 bps, the only change today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GLOOMY JOBS DATA CONTINUES
The latest filled jobs figures point to likely gloomy employment figures for the June quarter. The monthly filled jobs data shows a slight rise in June, but the May figures showed a rise initially as well - and that's now been revised down to a fall. The primary sector continues to be a notable bright spot for employment
BACK IN BALANCE
Residential construction in Auckland may be flattening out as dwelling completions start to match building consents. This is confirmed by the latest figures suggesting new dwelling completions in Auckland are roughly in balance with building consent levels now.
NO MORE SURCHARGING?
The Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Scott Simpson said the Government will ban card payment surcharges, 'shoppers will no longer be penalised’ for how they pay, he said. This will undoubtedly be good for consumers, but the merchants are likely to be in the middle, facing fat fees from Visa and Mastercard along with Google and Apple. If the low-fee EFTPOS makes a return that is likely to be good for everyone (other than the tech bros). Interestingly, the ban on surcharging will not apply to online shopping, just in-store shopping. Retailers are warning about price increases as a consequence.
LOG MARKET BALANCE
Seasonal slowdowns in China and India, combined with weak domestic demand has been matched by reduced harvest volumes, keeping the log market steady.
NZX50 IN GOOD GAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is +0.7% higher today, although down -0.1% from a week ago. That makes it down -0.9% since the start of the year although it is still up +5.1% from this time last year. Today Rakon (yes) is up +11.0%, Kathmandu is up +3.9%, SkyCity casino is up +2.9%, Infratil and Tower are both up +2.5%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.7%. The decliners are led by NZX down -2.6%, Skellerup down -1.6%, Precinct down -1.2%, and Briscoes down -0.8%.
FOR OUR AUSSIE READERS
We now have a new service for our Australian readers; interest.com.au
SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely a touch lower today although the shift is only slight. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.19% on Friday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.35%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.72%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.62% but up +4 bps at 4.61% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is also unchanged at 4.39%
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is up +0.5% in late Monday trade, and easing from the 3pm level reported above. However the ASX200 is up only +0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.7% . Hong Kong is up +0.7% at its open and Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has dipped -0.2%. Wall Street futures markets are signaling a strong +1.0% rise on the S&P500 when they open tomorrow, a relief rally on the EU-US tariff deal.
OIL FIRMISH
The oil price in the US is up a bit less than +50USc, now at just on US$65.50/bbl and just under US$69 for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE STILL LOW
The carbon price is holding at NZ$56.70/NZU but again, with trades very scarce. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is stable from this morning at US$3336/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from where opened this morning at 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are stillat 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we still at 51.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is holding at 67.3.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is now at US$119,403 and up +0.2% from this morning's open. Volatility has been low, now at just on +/-0.8.
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16 Comments
According to the Financial Times, house prices have climbed especially steeply in the Anglosphere over the past several decades. Data compiled by John Burn-Murdoch shows that, when adjusted for inflation, house prices in these countries have increased far more rapidly than in most of Western Europe since 1995. Aotearoa is by far the worst according to FT.
Passed this on to my colleague who's a Ponzi bull and he hit back with howls of protest - the first being that Aussie is far worse than Aotearoa. Actually I thought that was the case too. Anyway, what's interesting is that the data used in the FT is from the Dallas Fed (link below).
https://www.ft.com/content/0c628bdb-a3f6-47c1-9684-a47410bd4adf
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/international/houseprice#charts
The faster you go the bigger the mess
Your links seem to show that NZ is the best at house price appreciation, not the worst.
Well at least we were good at something ..,,
Your links seem to show that NZ is the best at house price appreciation, not the worst.
I hear you Dr Y. And it's a valid point. Aotearoa punching above its weight ('best') across the respective Ponzis.
It's only 'worst' on affordability for the hoi polloi.
Best Ponzi. Best social cohesion destroyer. Best incentive for smart and hard working young people to leave. And of course best tax dodge
Absolute disaster of a government. Policy after policy of poorly thought out, ignorant of the consequences ideology, coming mainly from the extreme right libertarians.
Ursula von der Leyen has asserted that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) is more "affordable and better" compared to other options, particularly as the EU seeks to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
Don't be surprised if many EU citizens think differently.
Europe is being destroyed, and in many ways, it appears to be deliberate.
https://tvpworld.com/88048628/update-us-and-eu-clinch-trade-deal-to-ave…
Europe really doesn’t have a lot of choice on this issue. They can’t keep financing Putin’s war machine that’s basically pointing at them, need the energy from somewhere and had to give Trump something to get a tariff deal done.
They can’t keep financing Putin’s war machine that’s basically pointing at them
If they're so terrified of Russia and feel an attack is imminent, they should probably confront Russia head on. But that's not what Europeans think and want.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/most-europeans-skeptical-of-nato-russia…
Something about nuclear annihilation makes people wary.
Phoenix - you said ..."Europe is being destroyed, and in many ways, it appears to be deliberate."
As you point out, it appears deliberate - that's because it is deliberate!
What TVP is reporting here is second-hand from Reuters - it's complete tripe, designed to drum up war, endless arms sales for the US MIC (Military Industrial Complex), and economic ruin for both Europe and Russia - and of course, eventually the take down of China as well.
It was blatantly obvious from day one who the culprit was...
https://www.brusselstimes.com/446104/deconstructing-the-obvious-seymour…
xhttps://thecradle.co/articles-id/2638
When the US blew up the NS pipelines, which supplied a highly affordable and reliable supply of natural gas to Europe, they caused a price hike of ~400%. This was an international act of war, committed by the US.
That energy supply was one of the few advantages left that helped to keep German industry competitive on international markets.
There are many bad actors in this disgraceful act of international sabotage, including Trump, who signed off on the sanctions which prevented the new NS2 pipelines from ever delivering a single cubic metre of gas to the German terminal on the Baltic Sea.
The appointed European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is one of the most evil crooks ever to walk the planet, and the incumbent German Chancellor, Merz, is the BlackRock connection in this European hatchet job.
Merz's predecessor, (AKA 'I know nothing') Olaf Scholz, was implicated in this debacle too.
Ben Norton explains in detail the history of the NS pipelines and how this all relates to the destabilisation of Ukraine to cause a major war there too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZ5VLdqac-0
At 18:20 he points out how NATO is basically an extension of US imperialism and that Norway helped in the sabotage, so that they could very conveniently become the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe.
At 29:20 US, the Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, in Sept 2022, said...
"This is also a tremendous opportunity - It's a tremendous opportunity to once and for all, remove the dependence on Russian energy, and thus to take away from Putin the weaponisation of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.
That's very significant, and that offers tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come. We've significantly increased our (energy) production as well as making it available to Europe, and we are now the leading supplier of LNG to Europe to help compensate for any oil or gas that it's losing as a result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine."
The sabotage was all done under the cover of NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea.
This is vital background information for anyone who is not familiar with the details and how the NS-pipeline and Ukraine saga relate to the US's desperate attempt to hold onto its military and financial hegemony - also, at the same time, to destroy all BRICS initiatives that offer an alternative and peaceful multipolar path towards global prosperity.
Good take Colin. I'd say that as energy becomes more scarce, it will only ever be further and further weaponised as it is so vital to western standards of living.
i like surcharging. it clearly price points using credit cards. i often grab my eftpos card when i see the surcharge. this just helps the ticket clippers hide their fees not the consumers. bad call.
Yep, the winners will be Visa & Mastercard and we all end up paying more. I saw a article where one cafe pays $17k per year in transaction fees, that's just one little business... the total figure that the card companies get must be mind blowing
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