Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Coop Bank trimmed its one year fixed rate by -4 bps to 4.85%. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
RELIEF FOR THE RBNZ
An RBNZ survey has shown an easing in expectations of inflation - something that will cause the RBNZ comfort as it prepares for its next Official Cash Rate decision later in the month.
IT'S TOUGH BEING A LANDLORD
Renters have more properties to choose from and asking rents are declining. This is what the realestate.co.nz listing data shows. Landlords are now in a tough market. And that means the motivation to maintain properties to reasonable minimum standards to attract tenants will clash with cash flow realities. We will likely hear far less from "investors" skiting about their property portfolios. In fact, if they are making both income and capital losses, it will be hard to call them "investors".
NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT CAPITAL GAINS ANYMORE
Vendors may be becoming more realistic in their price expectations as asking prices slide on the Trade Me Property portal. It will be the same on realestate.co.nz and oneroof.co.nz.
SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE
Good weather has seen milk production off to a strong start in 2025/26 (and milk production is up in the US and the EU as well). Rabobank says this season could set new records for milk production, weather permitting. That would mean it exceeds the 2020/21 season. If volumes turn out like that and prices stay at current levels, it will bolster our export earnings in a significant way.
FALLING FAST
Updated sheep meat processing data to June released today emphases just how tough the situation is for meat processors. In the year to June just over 10 mln sheep were processed in each island, about evenly split. But for the year to June that was -4.9% less in the North Island and a massive -12.3% less in the South Island. For both island, that is a record low. Animals may be larger, and prices higher, but unless the trend reverses soon, "Smithfields" will become more common.
TWO NEW IN HEARTLAND SENIOR TEAM
Heartland Bank today announced two new appointments to its senior management ranks. Alistair Scott will join as Chief Auto & Asset Finance Officer, bringing over 30 years of automotive industry experience, including his recent role as Managing Director for Jaguar Land Rover’s Asia Pacific region. And Rebecca Thomas will join as Chief Digital Transformation Officer, with more than 25 years in technology and enterprise transformation, including her recent role as Chief Information Officer at PwC.
NEW XRB CHAIR
KPMG senior partner John Kensington has been named to succeed Michele Embling as Chair of External Reporting Board. Kensington has been on that board since 2017. The XRB is an independent Crown entity responsible for developing and issuing accounting, auditing and assurance, and climate standards in New Zealand. The Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs selects its members - or more likely, MBIE does and the minister rubber-stamps the selections.
NZX50 RISES MODESTLY TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. And it is up +0.9% over the past five days but down -1.0% year-to-date. It is sitting +5.0% higher year-on-year. Heartland, SkyCity casino, Fletcher, and Scales lead; Mainfreight, Mercury, a2 Milk, and Kiwi Property Group trail. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up just +0.1% today.
AGAIN, HUGELY OVERSUBSCRIBED
More than $2 bln was bid today in 143 bids for the three maturities available in the $450 mln NZGB bond tenders. 32 of those bids were successful. In all cases yields achieved were lower than than in the prior equivalent events.
EXPORT STRENGTH
China's exports grew strongly in July. They rose +7.2% in July from the same month a year ago in a building momentum. That was a three month high. But imports grew too, so their trade surplus was a three month low.
RISING
Australia’s goods exports grew by +6.0% in June from May to a 16-month high, mainly driven by stronger shipments to China and the United States. But they are only up +2.5% in June from the same month a year ago.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower or stable today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.14% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at just under 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.44% while up +3 bps at 4.45% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at just over 4.23%.
EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is now up another +0.3% in late Thursday trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open but Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. Wall Street rose in its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7% making back the prior day's loss.
OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -50 USc, now just over US$65/bbl. And the international Brent price is now at US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE QUIET
The carbon price was unchanged today at NZ$57/NZU because we couldn't find any trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4 from yesterday at US$3379/oz.
NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged again at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just over 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at 67.1.
BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,540 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/-1.0%.
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37 Comments
Dog whistles must be on special again
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/569315/labour-leader-chris-hipkins…
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/569210/climate-activists-compared-…
Climate reporting has come in to force in Australia, with Directors put on notice.
Kind of curious given they are the worlds largest coal exporter. The psychological "compartmentalisation" they display is mind boggling.
Apparently the frontal cortex is there mostly to make excuses for the rest of your behaviour.
...it will be hard to call them "investors"
That's a curious statement. Being an investor is defined by the act of investing. It makes no difference whether the outcome is a profit or a loss. In fact it's the risk of a loss that makes them real investors. For instance, people who deposit money into term deposits, are they investors?
Maybe he meant "investor" in terms of tax? You have to pay CGT if you buy a property with the intention to sell it rather than make a yield.
TBF most have always claimed to be doing it out of a sense philanthropy as they all seem to claim they charge below market rents.
They're invested in the wellbeing of their tenants.
The real investors are those that rode eroad to double in price between late May and early June. I wonder what happened late May?
Rather than "real" the appropriate word to use would be "lucky" or, more generously, "canny".
You're being far too generous with those exquisitely connected investors.
Falling fast for the sheep meat industry should read, falling faster and faster. Gone are the halcyon days of the wool barons, the dominant UK industrialists and the market where wool uniformed the military, the by products fuelled the hoi polloi, lambs fry etc and the cuts, roast on Sunday, shepherds pie to follow. In fact such was the consistency of hard frozen lamb that Roal Dahl used a leg of such as a weapon for a perfect murder scene. Small unit, labour intensive processing and the understandable and successful development of an excellent chilled has introduced costs hardly recoverable. An interesting question then is to what use will the numbers of vast high country stations be put now that there is no economy left in the old stock. Anyone for trees?
And Rebecca Thomas will join as Chief Digital Transformation Officer, with more than 25 years in technology and enterprise transformation, including her recent role as Chief Information Officer at PwC.....KPMG senior partner John Kensington.....
Why does the ruling elite all go gaga after the Big 4 alumni? Realistically, most of them are not on the cutting edge of anything except schmoozing at the big end of town.
Had a relative work at one. Dream job she'd always aspired to. Hated it, they were horrible over eating and nasty employers. Funny though, so many of those that left there hating it then proceeded to bring work back to them from their new position. Proverbial Stockholm syndrome?
Dream ride once you get to partner. Had some recent dealings with one of their consulting divisions in APAC as a supplier. Level of competency quite dire, even at the upper levels. Return on effort not worth it. F'more, once things get rolling, I know that accountability on their side is delegated to the foot soldiers. That means decision making becomes unresponsive as they need to get signed off on everything by the higher level.
I'm reminded of blog posts by Robert MacCulloch (drawn to our attention by other commenters on interest.co.nz) about cronyism in NZ and while I can't find the specific post, here's one from May 6 that's along the relevant lines:
As we have often observed on this Blog, nearly the entire make-up of high-level government positions and private company Boards in New Zealand now comprises an old boys and old girls network made up of largely useless people, primarily from legal, accounting, marketing and communications backgrounds.
Add to this the gravitas, professionalism, experience and wisdom that will hopefully be exuded by those appointees.
I should point out the title of the post that the about quoted was lifted from is titled: "In today's New Zealand, the Enigma Code would've never been cracked. Why? Because the smartest & hardest working are being shafted by dummies."
Apple announced it will invest a total of $600 billion in the United States over the next 4 years, marking its largest-ever domestic investment commitment. The move includes an additional $100 billion in U.S. spending, which is intended to bolster advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence infrastructure, U.S.-made silicon chips, research and development, and skills training initiatives.
Giving that a little perspective, Apple's capex in the U.S. over the past 4 years was approx $40 billion.
When Tim Crook tried to ask Foxconn to shift part of the production in India, China didn’t allow the export of machines and other industrial IP. The best Apple could do in India was ship the phones made (as usual) in China and change their labels to “Made in India.”
Does anyone think China is going to allow any of its national companies to export of any industrial IP to the U.S.? So it could be that Apple's claims to make phones, etc in the U.S. is nonsense.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-increases-u-commitment-600-2040005…
I was alerted to the following article on CNN's website earlier this week:
TLDR? Exec summary then: Motorola tried to bring back manufacturing in 2013 and failed. American workers didn't have the skills or temperament to do the work.
Good luck to Apple, if they are honestly intending to do what they said.
"Our current gas supply agreement expires at the end of September and without a reliable and affordable supply, we are unable to keep the plant operational."
The Kāpuni urea plant, operational since 1982 and employing around 120 people, manufactures about a third or 260,000 tonnes of New Zealand's urea annually, specifically for use as a nitrogen-rich fertiliser."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/569323/kapuni-fertiliser-plant-may-…
Looks like Ballance will have to cease urea production. The odds of finding a large gas field seem slight. This will hurt production as imports are becoming more expensive. Maybe a Russian cease fire may resume gas exports to western countries which will help, for awhile.
NZ could discover the largest gas field ever and it would be a decade before it came online....nevermind the fact we wont.
We will be required to compete on the international market for the gas that is available and being a small market at the end of the supply chain will be required to pay top dollar for the privilege...not a great place to be.
we wont. Thanks Captain Cindy!
Youre welcome
Did you time the gas ban announcement with Joko's state visit so you could hit him up for some jungle coal to replace the gas, or were you just casually disrespecting him by making him wait 40 minutes?
"Ardern told the crowd she was supposed to be attending a state visit but had elected to receive the petition because of its importance. Behind her the Parliament flagpole was flying the Indonesian flag to mark the visit of President Joko Widodo."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/102394885/ardern-says-government-activ…
"Genesis has struck a deal with Contact, Meridian and Mercury to amass up to 600,000 tonnes of coal reserves, which when added to the current stocks will total potentially 1.1 million tonnes."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/568921/gentailers-agree-to-stockpil…
Pardon?
Are you not Captain Cindy?
That's right and our reliance on imported fertilizer of all categories to maintain food production is a week link. Super is now over $500 a ton at the store.
I'm OK with this. If farmers don't want to pay enough for fertilizers so that Ballance can bid high enough for the gas then so be it. That's how scarce resources are allocated in capitalism.
Without getting too PDK about it, using fossil fuels to help grow grass faster doesn't seem sustainable.
using fossil fuels to help grow grass faster doesn't seem sustainable.
We now seem to wrap all of our food in fossil fuels. And then even put them inside another fossil fuel.
How'd we ever survive without fossil fuels being involved in every step of the food chain.
It was called subsistence farming or earlier hunter gathering. Too many people now for that, without NPKS food production dives.
Chippie pretending that the Ponzi needs to be reined in. My reckon is that Chippie knows sweet FA about what innovation and the success rate of start-ups.
"Let's be really frank - and I know that this is huge in Queenstown - we have an over emphasis on the housing market... We can't get rich as a country just by buying and selling houses from one another, we need to invest in the productive economy, and our over emphasis on the housing market as our primary source of investment has meant that we haven't been."
"Simply reinflating house prices and growing the population through further inbound migration might mask some of the problems that we see, but it's not going to deal with the underlying ones and some of those underlying ones will get worse if that's our strategy for economic recovery,"
"The sort of innovation that we're seeing in New Zealand is really exciting, some of the best in the world, but our challenge is to scale that - it's to continue to grow that. All of those businesses talk about the shallowness of our capital markets when it comes to innovative companies and startups."
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/569315/labour-leader-chris-hipkins…
It’s ace to say it, Bishop recently talking about it as well…different to make it happen.
More likely to see thinking revert to the mean with property investment as soon as there is a positive bounce.
NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT CAPITAL GAINS ANYMORE
LOL - but Chris Hipkins is! He's finally coming round to a CGT - hahaha - timing is everything.
Chris Hipkins needs to leave the chat and give someone else a go...
E Road shares up 26% in the last day
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