A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; inflation easing; landlording tough, asking prices fall, dairy outlook strong, sheep meat problematic, finance people on the move; swaps stable, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Coop Bank trimmed its one year fixed rate by -4 bps to 4.85%. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

RELIEF FOR THE RBNZ
An RBNZ survey has shown an easing in expectations of inflation - something that will cause the RBNZ comfort as it prepares for its next Official Cash Rate decision later in the month.

IT'S TOUGH BEING A LANDLORD
Renters have more properties to choose from and asking rents are declining. This is what the realestate.co.nz listing data shows. Landlords are now in a tough market. And that means the motivation to maintain properties to reasonable minimum standards to attract tenants will clash with cash flow realities. We will likely hear far less from "investors" skiting about their property portfolios. In fact, if they are making both income and capital losses, it will be hard to call them "investors".

NO-ONE IS TALKING ABOUT CAPITAL GAINS ANYMORE
Vendors may be becoming more realistic in their price expectations as asking prices slide on the Trade Me Property portal. It will be the same on realestate.co.nz and oneroof.co.nz.

SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE
Good weather has seen milk production off to a strong start in 2025/26 (and milk production is up in the US and the EU as well). Rabobank says this season could set new records for milk production, weather permitting. That would mean it exceeds the 2020/21 season. If volumes turn out like that and prices stay at current levels, it will bolster our export earnings in a significant way.

FALLING FAST
Updated sheep meat processing data to June released today emphases just how tough the situation is for meat processors. In the year to June just over 10 mln sheep were processed in each island, about evenly split. But for the year to June that was -4.9% less in the North Island and a massive -12.3% less in the South Island. For both island, that is a record low. Animals may be larger, and prices higher, but unless the trend reverses soon, "Smithfields" will become more common.

TWO NEW IN HEARTLAND SENIOR TEAM
Heartland Bank today announced two new appointments to its senior management ranks. Alistair Scott will join as Chief Auto & Asset Finance Officer, bringing over 30 years of automotive industry experience, including his recent role as Managing Director for Jaguar Land Rover’s Asia Pacific region. And Rebecca Thomas will join as Chief Digital Transformation Officer, with more than 25 years in technology and enterprise transformation, including her recent role as Chief Information Officer at PwC.

NEW XRB CHAIR
KPMG senior partner John Kensington has been named to succeed Michele Embling as Chair of External Reporting Board. Kensington has been on that board since 2017. The XRB is an independent Crown entity responsible for developing and issuing accounting, auditing and assurance, and climate standards in New Zealand. The Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs selects its members - or more likely, MBIE does and the minister rubber-stamps the selections.

NZX50 RISES MODESTLY TODAY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. And it is up +0.9% over the past five days but down -1.0% year-to-date. It is sitting +5.0% higher year-on-year. Heartland, SkyCity casino, Fletcher, and Scales lead; Mainfreight, Mercury, a2 Milk, and Kiwi Property Group trail. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up just +0.1% today.

AGAIN, HUGELY OVERSUBSCRIBED
More than $2 bln was bid today in 143 bids for the three maturities available in the $450 mln NZGB bond tenders. 32 of those bids were successful. In all cases yields achieved were lower than than in the prior equivalent events.

EXPORT STRENGTH
China's exports grew strongly in July. They rose +7.2% in July from the same month a year ago in a building momentum. That was a three month high. But imports grew too, so their trade surplus was a three month low.

RISING
Australia’s goods exports grew by +6.0% in June from May to a 16-month high, mainly driven by stronger shipments to China and the United States. But they are only up +2.5% in June from the same month a year ago.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower or stable today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.14% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at just under 1.69%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 4.44% while up +3 bps at 4.45% in the earlier RBNZ fix today. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at just over 4.23%.

EQUITIES MIXED AGAIN
The local equity market is now up another +0.3% in late Thursday trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong is unchanged at its open but Shanghai is down -0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.7%. Wall Street rose in its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.7% making back the prior day's loss.

OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is down another -50 USc, now just over US$65/bbl. And the international Brent price is now at US$67.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE QUIET
The carbon price was unchanged today at NZ$57/NZU because we couldn't find any trades. The next official carbon auction is on September 10, 2025. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD STABLE
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$4 from yesterday at US$3379/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged again at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just over 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is up +10 bps at 67.1.

BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$114,540 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/-1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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