Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A VITAL SIGN
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index broke a 10-month losing streak in September but consumer wallets are still not opening. ANZ economists reckon we have passed "peak pessimism".
FHB REPORT
The ability and willingness of banks to provide low equity mortgages is one of the biggest factors in determining whether first home buyers can afford a home of their own. Almost 45% of mortgages approved to first home buyers in August were low equity loans.
TOWER KNOCKS OUT IAG FROM WESTPAC
Westpac NZ is ending its insurance partnership with IAG NZ and is switching to Tower for general insurance products IAG signals it will now target these Westpac clients to try and keep them as customers.
SLIGHTLY LESS SKEW
Updated June 2024 data on household net worth sheds some light on how it is distributed. Of the total $2.07 tln total net worth, the wealthiest 20% of households held approximately two-thirds of this. This wealthiest 20% held the largest share of their wealth in financial assets such as pension funds, shares, and investment funds. The remainder of households held the largest share of their wealth in non-financial assets such as housing. The wealthiest 10% held 49% of all household net worth, compared with 53% in the year ended June 2015. For all practical purposes, the bottom 40% of households has neglible net worth.
WE REALLY ARE THE POOR COUSIN
This week Australia also released household net worth data in totals, and it rose to AU$17.64 tln as at 30 June 2025. To save you doing the conversion and math, that is ten times the Kiwi level. And it won't be distributed evenly either. (Even our wealthy are "poor cousins".)
IF ONLY YOU HAD STOCK TO SELL
Livestock prices are still on the move up. There is only very limited processing going on but both lamb and cattle prices are rising. China is still buying lamb. The US is driving up the price for beef. You will be able to track these changes in our rural database.
NZX50 DOWN AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.6% net in its Friday session so far. It is now down -1.2% over the past five working days. But it is up JUST +0.1% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +4.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down ANOTHER -0.4% today so far. Ryman, Tower, Fletcher, and Stride Property rise; Briscoes, Infratil, Kathmandu, and Mercury all fall.
HLG UPDATED
Our profile for Hallenstein Glassons (HLG, #42) has now been updated.
GETTING SOME OF THEIR OWN MEDICINE
In the US, the seriously important harvesting of their soybean crop is underway - but it is missing China as a key customer. China is buying Brazilian and Argentine soybeans and may let the Americans starve. Although prices are marginally higher, the lack of sales volume for the US crop could quickly turn into a very big problem for them because they just don't have the storage for an unsold crop which could total 16 bln bushels.
SWAP RATES HOLD AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be marginally firmer today in the short durations. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.82% on Thursday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps from yesterday at 4.39%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed by one business day now, and was up +2 bps, at 4.22% at the end of Thursday trade. The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps at 4.18%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.6% in Friday trade. However, the ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -0.3%. Hong Kong is down -0.7% with Shanghai down -0.1%. Singapore is up +0.2% at its open. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.5%.
OIL FIRMS
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$65/bbl and the international Brent price is now over US$69.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been no trades to report today. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up to US$3740/oz, up +US$4 from this time yesterday.
NZD DIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down another -50 bps from yesterday, now at 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 49.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 65.2 and down -10 bps.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$109,697 and down -2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest,just on +/- 1.8%.
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17 Comments
So the USA has manufactured for itself a potential internal glut of soy beans. Believe in Trump’s first term the US producers were subsidised to compensate for the market in China being disrupted. If so and if the glut materialises, then it will then be a stark reminder of the bottom falling out of a commodity trade due to firstly interference with natural market forces and secondly the self defeating nature of subsidies.
A coincidence that the Nazi concept of "Strength through joy" could be punned by Trump as "Strength through soy".
Of course the theory of market forces only applies if you ignore reality
Re: soybeans - the displaced buyers of South American soy beans who lost out to the Chinese will buy the US soybeans if they're cheaper, and it may well be that South Americans themselves pick up some volume (just like NZ exporting higher priced commodities and importing lower cost)
I read that they can also be used for biodiesel. Not something I'd imagine the current US Administration would be enthusiastic about.
Brazil also has a record soybean harvest so more beans to find homes. Can we blame Trump for that? Great news for the consumer.
https://revistacultivar.com/news/Brazil%27s-record-harvest-puts-pressur…
WE REALLY ARE THE POOR COUSIN
"To save you doing the conversion and math, that is ten times the Kiwi level."
Appreciate you doing the math and all but would be good to see the calculations. What is meant by "ten times the Kiwi level"?
NZ has about 2M households and a total household net worth of 2.44 trillion.
AUS has about 10M households and a total household net worth of 19.69 trillion (NZD)
The average net worth for a NZ household would be 1.2M NZD
The average net worth for an AUS household would be 1.97M NZD
Now those are just mine (and Copilot's) calculations going on totals of households and wealth.
So at best it is less than 2 times?
Official average wealth per household figures in NZD are:
NZ 831K
AUS 947K
Yes Z. Still important to remember that Aussie's "wealth" is concentrated in its Ponzi. Same same but different.
And this is cool. China is delivering campervans to the Aussie mkt for approx AUD100K.
Why buy a house when you can get a factory-built caravan for under $100,000?
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/deliver-9-campervan-ldv-launch-aussi…
Is your comment satire? Oh, I see, that's how the article starts. My first thought was, why not buy a campervan and a house? Still, the thought of endless driving over the hellish, Mad-Max landscape of Australia doesn't seem all that appealing.
Funny how they write, "This factory-built campervan". For a hundred grand and brand new you'd expect it to be made in a factory wouldn't you?
When I read about cost of housing units in the 'safe sleep' villages for the homeless in Los Angeles - approx $44,000 per tent for setup - I thought I was looking at satire.
Tesla's Tiny Houses start from $5,600 (frame only and no furniture or energy systems) up to $30,000 for models equipped with Tesla Powerwalls and full solar energy setups.
Die at home?
Especially in Chch, as there are no beds.
The ANZ survey is significant because it is already in the past. Things are improving. Any share gurus on here? What's way down but should rebound as the economy turns?
utilities, power ports
A collapse of two major? US companies because of debt. It appears to be no small change involved.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0ZEghZexUU $1.5 Trillion Credit Market MELTDOWN - Chaos Erupts Following RAPID COLLAPSE of Major Companies
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