A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Kiwibank & BNZ cut retail rates, retail trade tough, IAG docked, commodity prices hold high, pump-and-dump warning, swaps firmish, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Kiwibank cut its fixed rates today. Details here. The Police Credit Union, and the Heretaunga Building Society also cut rates today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ trimmed all its TD rates today. They were joined by UnityMoney, WBS, the Police Credit Union, and the Heretaunga Building Society. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STILL TOUGH
Payments processor Worldline (Paymark) is reporting that consumer spending rose just +1.1% in September from the same month a year ago, but drops in key retail sectors show current conditions are still tough. The rise wasn't enough to account for inflation however. In Auckland the rise was +0.0% (ie none), in Wellington +0.1%, and in Christchurch things fell back -0.5%. They say things should be seasonally strong in the September to December period but that pattern "is not happening yet".

DOCKED A FEW DAYS PAY(PROFITS)
Insurer IAG in New Zealand has admitted to fair dealing breaches related to its insurance products, and the High Court has imposed a final pecuniary penalty of $19.5 mln. The FMA took the prosecuted. “IAG is New Zealand’s largest insurer. It is a large and sophisticated market leader and accordingly plays a vital role in upholding market standards, yet its significant underinvestment led to widespread failures of its systems and processes, to the detriment of its customers. It also failed to respond to and report many of the issues in an appropriate timeframe,” the FMA said. Given the New Zealand business of IAG made a AU$605 mln profit in their last financial year (NZ$690 mln), today's settlement represents seven working days of profit. More here.

TOPPING OUT
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell -1.1% in September from August in world prices. This was mainly driven by falling dairy prices, which make up a large proportion of the index – they resumed their downward trend after a brief rally in August. Log prices also fell. However, the other components of the index rose in the month. The overall index has drifted lower since May, despite rising meat prices, but compared to a year ago it is still up +6.2%. In NZD it is up +14.0% from a year ago.

ANNUAL RESULT
The Government has reduced its investment in the RBNZ, reducing its 'targeted capital' to $3.9 bln from $4.1 bln in 2024. The RBNZ paid the Government a $542 mln dividend, meaning a tax-paid return of 13.2% pa. The RBNZ's balance sheet is highly leveraged with total assets of $72.4 bln and Net Worth of $4.8 bln. So leverage of 15.0x. This is actually higher leverage that any of the main banks they regulate - even Kiwibank at 13.2x. The Aussie banks average 10.8x. The RBNZ isn't a normal bank of course and will always be backed up by the taxpayer.

SEVERENCE
And the same Annual Report reveals that former Governor Adrian Orr will receive over $1 million for his last year in the job, whth $400,000 to be paid out in October.

THE MORTGAGE MARKET IS CHANGING
Banks compensate mortgage brokers with commissions for written business. ANZ and ASB only pay upfront commissions, but BNZ, Kiwibank and Westpac pay both an upfront commission plus a trail commission. Now an unconfirmed report suggest that Westpac want to drop trail commissions. At the same time, banks are building their direct to consumer channels via apps and online offers, also saving broker commission. (Westpac in Australia launched new direct online offers today, passing on lower rates than loans originated via brokers.)

NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.1% net in its Monday session so far toi start the week. It is up +2.8% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.3% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +7.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.5% today so far. Ryman, Argosy, Stride, and Investore leads the gains, while Tourism Holdings, The NZX, Meridian, and SkyCity casino declined today.

EASY GO
The FMA is warning about a pump-and-dump investment scam running on social media impersonating a well-known local figure. Apparently there are many gullible 'investors' falling for these types of social media traps. These social media platforms offer no protection, more interested in 'earning' the ad-fees than protecting the vulnerable. More here.

NEW RECORD
Last week we noted the very high NZGB turnover levels in the secondary market. New data out today shows that has continues, with turnover up to an all-time record $82.8 bln for the week ending October 3, 2025.

INFLATION PRESSUE RISES
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded an +0.4% increase in monthly inflation for September from August, primarily influenced by higher recreation and transport related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation now lies at the top-end of the 2-3% target band at just on +3.0%. This is the same as the last ABS Inflation Indicator for August. At this rate, it seems unlikely that the RBA will be looking at any rate cut at their November 4, 2025 review. But not everyone links like that. The central bank is still expected to slash the cash rate despite these sticky prices, according to the latest quarterly survey of economists by The Australian Financial Review.

SWAP RATES TURN UP
Wholesale swap rates are will probably be firmer again today for all durations except the 1 year. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -3 bps on Friday at 2.74%. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from this morning at 4.38%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.88%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.26%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday's rate up +2 bps to 4.21%. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.15%.

EQUITIES IN THE SHADOW OF TOKYO
The local equity market is now down -0.1% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up very sharply, up +4.5% on the selection of Sanae Takaichi as prime minister-designate. Hong Kong is down -0.4% at its open and of course Shanghai is still on its holiday break. Singapore is up +0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures trading suggests the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.9%.

OIL DIPS AGAIN
The oil price in the US is up +50 USc frin this morning to just over US$61.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now up at just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
Prices remain range-bound on very light volumes, holding at $57/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD UP AT ATH
In early Asian trade, gold is up over US$3900/oz for the first time, now at US$3915/oz, up +US$33 from this morning's open.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday at 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now holding at just over 65.6.

BITCOIN FIRMS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$124,100 and up +0.9% from this morning. Volatility has again been modest, just on +/- 1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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