Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
WBS (Wairarapa Building Society has tweaked its one year TD rate up, to 3.65%, kind of going against the general trends. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
GOING NOWHERE
REINZ data shows housing markets stabilised in October. Residential property sales volumes were up +6.4% year-on-year in October. But national median prices are still at levels we had in December 2022, down -1.1% from October a year ago. No region is shifting out of the four year pause.
INFLATION IS FIERCE
Statistics NZ’s Selected Price Indexes shows annual food prices up 4.7% in October year due to higher grocery prices. Meanwhile, the pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets quickened last month, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.5% increase in what suppliers charged in October 2025, compared to a year earlier.
CONTRACTION EXTENDS
Twenty months and counting - the services sector stays in contraction. Signs of a perk-up in the manufacturing sector may have inspired thoughts that the under-the-pump services sector may also raise its head - but no, not yet.
THE TEAL OPTION FOR NZ
We are clearly on the wrong path and its getting worse. Maybe new thinking is required, rather than just another switch between NACTNF and LGM. And this.
UNBALANCED AGEING
As at September 2025, the estimated resident population was 5,334,200, up +0.6% from a year ago. The median age was 38.3 years, a record high. The reason is that the 65-and-older population rose +3.1% from a year ago to 907,400 and doubling (ie +100%) that cohort over the past 25 years. In the same 25 years the population under 65 years has risen just +30%.
A NEW QUIZ IS READY FOR YOU
If you haven't already done so, don't forget to take this week's quiz. Join the more than 600 who did it last week. This week's version ends on Sunday. You can bookmark this page.
UBER (& VAN VELDEN) LOSE 5-0 IN SUPREME COURT
Today, the full Supreme Court has ruled that the four drivers who took their case to court, are in fact employees. The decision was unanimous in a case that has been going on for four years. This comes at the Coalition government is speeding up legislation to protect (tax skimming) Uber from their drivers and protect other employers who want to expand casual employment. (For the record, Uber ridesharing declared it generated $104 mln in revenue in New Zealand in its latest filed accounts, and its main cost was a $99 mln "inter company service fee".)
NZX50 VOLATILE
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is unchanged so far on Monday after starting positive, then turning negative. That puts it also down -1.2% over the past five working days. And it is up +3.0% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up +5.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has risen +0.6% so far today. Vital Healthcare, Briscoe, SkyCity casino, and Channel Infrastructure are the top gainers, Vista, Ryman, Goodman, and Turners lead the decliners.
BORROWING IN $1 BLN BLOCKS
BNZ has borrowed €500 mln (NZ$1.02 bln) via medium-term notes issue. These five-year notes will be listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. This transaction comes after last weeks' $1 bln bond issue by Westpac.
DIPPING BUT STILL HIGH
In its household inflation expectations survey for Q4-2025, the RBNZ is reporting that the mean household expectation for one-year-ahead annual inflation decreased from 6.0% to 5.5% this quarter. The median estimate for one-year-ahead annual inflation remained at 4.0%. More here.
SURGING EXPORTS
In something of a big positive surprise, Singapore's October non-oil exports rose sharply to S$17.2 bln, up more than +23% from year-ago levels up +15% from September. That is up from the +7% rise in September. Their non-oil exports to Thailand rose a massive +91%, to Taiwan a massive +61%, to South Korea by +38%. Going the other way, their exports to the US dropped -12%, and to both China and Japan were virtually unchanged.
SWAP RATES HOLD BUT LONG BONDS JUMP
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today although with a steepening curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.48% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 4.50% is a strongly rising tide. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.80%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also up sharply, up +17 bps at 4.36%. The RBNZ data is now all delayed with Friday's rate is up +11 bps at 4.29%. The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.11%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, BUT WITH EXCEPTIONS
The local equity market is now up +0.2% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has also eased -0.4% at its open. Hong Kong is down -0.7% at its open. Shanghai is also down -0.7%. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street futures are currently signaling that the S&P500 will open tomorrow up +0.6%.
OIL DIPS SLIGHTLY
The oil price in the US has fallen -50 USc from this morning at just on US$59.50/bbl and the international Brent price is now just over US$63.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STAYS DOWN
There have been have been some small trades today but the price has held down at $43/NZU. The next official carbon auction is on December 3, 2025 and likely heading for another failure. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$10/oz from this morning, now at US$4090/oz.
NZD SLIGHTLY SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this morning at just on 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 86.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 48.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -10 bps at 61.2.
BITCOIN STAYS DOWN
The bitcoin price is now at US$94,856 and up +0.5% from this morning. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.
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14 Comments
Singapore looks to be doing a big trade in on-selling US AI GPU's to sanctioned countries
It's dumb to think that the "bad guys" can't get their hands on advanced AI chips. It's not that hard. F'more, for reverse engineering purposes, it's not like you need large shipments.
It was a tongue in cheek response to the Singapore exports growth noted above
Singapore has always been agnostic when it comes to trading with various dodgy regimes.
Citi Research reckons a 0.1% increase in household allocations to gold would require doubling annual mine supply.
Raising average allocations from 3.5% to 5% would need 18 years of mine supply — about half of all jewellery and coin stocks ever produced.
That gives some perspective on why gold mining companies are powering ahead.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-furious-rebound
Be quick to secure the latest meme asset!
Stocks are strictly limited on this hot tip that only hundreds of millions of people have access to! Everyones a winner!
Coming soon; Ostrich farming, it's the wave of the future!
Coming soon; Ostrich farming, it's the wave of the future!
Nobody is saying you have to own gold mining stocks P. Just because you and your peer group don't want them doesn't mean they don't have value.
As for memes, the standout so far in 2025 must be Zcash (ZEC), is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency that enables users to choose between transparent and shielded transactions, distinguishing it from many other blockchain systems where transactions are always publicly visible.
Up 16x in the past 6 months on high volume. Rose like a phoenix. But not a flash in the pan. Zcash was created in 2016 as a fork of Bitcoin by scientists and engineers from leading academic institutions, seeking to offer enhanced privacy in digital payments.
One of my peers has an actual mine.
Another a claim.
Just pointing out the possibility there's a stream of information coming through on the internet, that's more marketing masquerading as news.
You got the "The Herald may not be the most accurate representation of reality" part right. But leapt from one set of shenanigans into a much larger one.
Just pointing out the possibility there's a stream of information coming through on the internet, that's more marketing masquerading as news.
Sure. But the gains in mining stock prices are not a fiction. They represent the actual movement of capital. In 2025, capital inflows into gold mining stocks and related funds have attracted over $31 billion in new capital. The record was set in 2020 at $44 billion.
https://leverageshares.com/en-eu/insights/gold-miners-shine-brighter-th…
Goats. Be in.
There once a bubble in them. It's coming again. Now is the time to buy. (or maybe houses)
I love the way some of the commentators around here fiddle while Rome burns. NZ Inc. is being run by people without integrity... those who can leave... and those who can't are starting to realise they've been sold a pup.
The real takeout is that ACTNFnat have got it wrong on so many levels, that a half-arsed Labour party is now seen as a better bet by a growing number of punters.
Forget your gold and self-interest, NZ is at a crossroads by accident or design.
Can we have some grown-ups put their hand up at the next election please?
NZ Inc. is being run by people without integrity... those who can leave... and those who can't are starting to realise they've been sold a pup.
I think the RBNZ and the commercial bank honchos might fit the profile of what you're saying. But where would they be leaving for?
Forget your gold and self-interest, NZ is at a crossroads by accident or design.
Forget gold. But definitely think of your self interest. Young people leaving for Aussie are acting in their self interest - they might even head for the gold mines in WA.
And you could argue the boomers are acting in their self interest by voting for politicians that protect the status quo.
Colleague sitting in the financial belly of Aussie reckons the RBA's wholesale CBDC is a game changer:
- Counterparty and settlement risk is virtually eliminated
- CBDCs inherit all the security and immutability characteristics from blockchain
For an update, testing for the pilot use cases have continued through late 2025, with a public report on pilot outcomes and recommendations expected in the first quarter of 2026.
https://www.globalgovernmentfintech.com/australia-project-acacia-pilot-…
Looks like BTC going to retest 83k
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