A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; more retail rate changes, Willis on Kiwibank IPO, Fonterra cuts again, GDP bounces back, some big scam losses, swaps stable, NZD soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB, BNZ and TSB all changed fixed rates today, basically mimicking Westpac. Details here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB and TSB changed their TD rates too. Rabobank raised all their rates for 1 year and longer. And so did the Co-operative bank. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

KIWIBANK IPO SOONER THAN EXPECTED?
Finance Minister Nicola WIllis spoke to reporters today about the latest GDP results. The conversation shifted to Kiwibank and when asked what the likelihood of a Kiwibank initial public offer (IPO) was in the next three years, Willis said she understood Kiwibank would make a statement about that "before Christmas". Asked more about Kiwibank, Willis said she would not comment on it "and as I say, there will be statements made about that in the coming days". (Comment: Makes you wonder if institutions are not signing up to the previously signaled $500 mln capital raise. So mum-and-dad investors are the next target in line?)

A SECOND QUICK CUT
Fonterra has cut its milk price forecast for second time in a month. Fonterra's forecast milk price for farmers in the current season has now been chopped by -10% from the co-operative's opening forecast level with the price trimmed to $9/kgMS from $9.50 in November, $10.16 last season. Global milk production is up more than global demand. However, note that the FCG share price has held at $5.94 and the FSF share price is also unaffected at $8.22 today.

REAL RECOVERY?
The economy grew +1.1% (real) in the September quarter, from Q2 (when it fell -1.0%). Stats NZ said the rise in economic activity in the September quarter was broad-based, with increases in 14 out of 16 industries. You should also read this.

RATINGS NEUTRAL
Ratings agency Fitch says there will be no ratings impact from yesterday's proposed capital rules - which will require a modest increase in bank capital over a longer timeframe (than originally proposed by the Orr-led RBNZ).

BIG JUMP FROM A SMALL NUMBER OF INCIDENTS
The National Cyber Security Centre’s Cyber Security Insights report for Q3-2025, shows that a total of 1,249 incident reports were received in the period from July to September 2025. Direct financial losses of $12.4 mln were reported, a +118% increase compared to the $5.7 mln reported last quarter. This increase was caused by a small number of high-value loss reports involving the unauthorised or falsified transfer of money.

FULL BAN
The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) is banning weed killers containing chlorthal-dimethyl (also known as DCPA) because of concerns about its effects on foetal development. Chlorthal-dimethyl is used to control wireweed on vegetable crops before the vegetables emerge from the soil.

DONE OUR UPDATED QUIZ YET?
Our quiz has been refreshed for the new week. You can do it here.

NZX50 DROPS, UP LESS THAN INFLATION FROM A YEAR AGO
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% so far today following the extended overnight global retreat. That puts it down -1.0% over the past five working days. It is up +1.5% year-to-date. From a year ago it is now up only +3.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.9% so far today. Meridian, Freightways, Kathmandu and Vulcan Steel lead the gainers; Tourism Holdings, a2 Milk, Summerset and Heartland are the key decliners.

STILL EXPECTING HIGH INFLATION
Australian inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.

AWASH IN MILK WHEAT
Australia said its 2025/26 wheat production will likely come at a record 36 mln tonnes, almost +30% higher than a year ago. Growing conditions have been very favourable. Globally, the FAO says 2025 wheat production will reach a record 808 mln tonnes. The International Grains Council says it will come in even higher at 819 mln tonnes. And the USDA has forecast over 830 mln tonnes. So it will be no surprise to know that prices for wheat are back to levels they first reached in 2016 of US$18,000/tonne (US$500/bu).

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates will likely be little-changed again today across the maturity curve although perhaps marginally softer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +1 bp at 4.75%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed, still at 1.84%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.56%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +1 bp at 4.55%. The UST 10yr yield is down -2 bps from yesterday at 4.14%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY WEAKER AGAIN
The local equity market is down -0.3% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is also down -0.3% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.2% so far but Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore is down -0.1% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 down a sharp -1.2% in tech weakness.

OIL TURNS UP
The oil price in the US is back up +US$1 at just over US$56.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just on US$60.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE INCHES LOWER YET AGAIN
Secondary market transactions are still small and far between, and still inching lower, now down to $38/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$6/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4330/oz.

NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down nearly -20 bps at 49.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.8 and down -20 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN SOFTER BUT VOLATILE
The bitcoin price is now at US$88,155 and down -1.6% from yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».