A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; ANZ ups its floating rate, property signals turn mostly positive, better labour market signals, better milk powder prices, swaps up, gold up, NZ$1 = 57.3 USc, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The new year has started with ANZ raising its floating rate by +10 bps. The details (and comparisons) are here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None to advise here today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

PAST THE BOTTOM
QV says their December quarter review shows residential property value rises are becoming more widespread across NZ, but pace is modest.

MORE DWELLINGS CONSENTED
Residential building consent data for November was released today, and they are still trending higher. Some analysts see this as evidence there will be a lift in residential building activity over the year ahead. The trend was particularly strong in Canterbury where they have high consent levels per 1000 population. Auckland's rate is high too. But Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and the Nelson regions have never enjoyed the rise per 1000.

NON-RES STILL VERY WEAK
Infometrics notes that non-residential consents are low, matching October, and would be lower except for a big Government one. This latest result is -11% lower than total consents issued a year earlier in November 2024. This month's result was also boosted by a $193 mln consent as part of the MPI’s new Plant Health facility in Auckland. Stripping this large consent out of the data shows a -33% fall in underlying consent values from a year earlier.

CONSTRUCTION COSTS UP MODESTLY
Cotality says construction cost growth is rising alongside activity. Although the rate of increase has tailed off over the past two years, residential construction costs remain very high with the pandemic rises now baked in. But builders sense better demand in 2026.

MORE JOBS - IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
Filled jobs data for November was positive, in fact the most positive month since April 2023. But it largely relies on faster public sector hiring in public administration, education and healthcare. Analysts are so worried about the otherwise slow pickup in hiring because usually the labour market is a 'lagging indicator' and the last big sector to rise in a recovery.

EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE EDGES UP
Meanwhile the Westpac MM employment confidence index reports a modest gain. Employment confidence rose by 3.9 points to 93.8 in the December quarter. Jobs are still seen as hard to come by, but current readings are consistent with a peak in the unemployment rate, Westpac said.

DAIRY PRICE RISE CONFIRMED ...
The overnight Pulse dairy auction of milk powders extended last week's full auction gains for both SMP and WMP. And they were good gains, with SMP +2.1% higher than a week ago, and WMP +1.2% higher on the same basis.

... BUT THAT WAS PRECEDED BY WEAKNESS
But the ANZ world commodity price index fell -2.1% in December from November. Dairy prices fell -5.3%, offsetting a +1.2% rise in meat and wool. "Global dairy prices are being pressured by strong milk production growth in most major exporting countries. The impact on butter has been the most dramatic, with prices down almost -17%," they said.

ENDING ON A SOFT NOTE
There were 6420 new passenger vehicles sold in December, which is -11.0% less than in the same 2024 month. For all of 2025, there were almost 98,000 new passenger cars sold, +15.7% more than in all of 2024. December new car sales was the only significant shortfall month in the year. For used imports, the December levels were -6.1% lower than the same month a year ago, and overall, there were -13.5% fewer sales in this category. In fact 2025 was the lowest sales year for used imports since 2020, and before that 2013.

OUR QUIZ IS OPEN THIS WEEK
Our quiz has been refreshed for this new week. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 TURNS UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.4% so far today. That puts it unchanged over the past five working days. It is up +8.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.4%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.6% so far today. The main gainers today are SkyCity Casino, Vector, a2 Milk, Rakon and Kiwi Property. The main decliners are Briscoes, The Warehouse, Fletchers and NZX.

A BIG UNWELCOME SURPRISE
In South Korea, some surprisingly negative jobs data was released today. Their jobless rate jumped to 4.1% in December from 2.7% in November to its highest level in nearly five years - in fact back to pre-pandemic levels. The number of unemployed people rose to 1.22 mln, up +103,000 or up +9.2% year-on-year. It is such an unusual and unexpected result, it maybe a rogue survey.

BIG DECISION AWAITED
In the US, many eyes are on a possible decision on the Trump tariff-taxes by the US Supreme Court. It could come overnight. Trump himself has been exerting maximum pressure on the justices, most of who he appointed. His problem is that he appointed strict legal constructionists and they were very unfriendly to his position during the argument stage. However, he expects 'loyalty' over "the law" and with the pressure he may get it. If they defer to decide, he wins.

HOLDING ON
In an updated review, the World Bank says global growth will come in at +2.7% in 2026, up marginally from +2.6% in its June forecast. It predicts US GDP growth will reach +2.2% in 2026, compared with +2.1% in 2025. For China, they see +4.9% and +4.4% for the same two years. For Japan it is +1.3% and 0.8%. For the EU, +1.4% and +0.9%. For India it is +7.2% and +6.5%. Neither Australia or New Zealand feature in these reviews.

SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher again today across the maturity curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.50% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +3 bps at 4.72%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.86%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at almost 2.18% and up +5 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.50%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate up +3 bps at 4.43%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from yesterday at 4.18%.

EQUITIES MIXED BUT
The local equity market is up +0.3% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.5% in its opening trade and the extension of their surge. Hong Kong is unchanged today so far and Shanghai is up +0.5%. Singapore is down -0.3% at its open. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with the S&P500 down -0.2% basically accepting the US CPI data at face value, but worried about

OIL HOLDS (LOW)
The oil price in the US is little-changed at just over US$61/bbl while the international Brent price is now just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE ATROPHYING
Secondary market transactions are still featuring small trades but the price has declined by -12% since the end off 2025, today down to $35.10/NZU. That is its lowest since at least 2021 and is the lowest in our data set. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

PRECIOUS METALS RISE TO NEW HEIGHTS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$39/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4618/oz and a new record high. Silver is now up to just under US$90/oz in another powerful surge.

MORE RECORDS
Aluminium and copper are moving higher, but today's star is tin which just hit an all-time record of almost US$48,000/tonne. (Nickel and iron ore are the only major metals not really participating in the current commodity price boom.)

NZD LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now just over 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.5 and down -30 bps from yesterday.

BITCOIN RISES
The bitcoin price is now at US$95,250 and up +4.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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