A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; faulty rush to floating rates, REINZ December data, retail sector soft, net migration levels low, Crown accounts weak, Govt bonds popular, swaps & NZD stable, and much more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has trimmed its floating rate, and raised some fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

BAD ADVICE?
There was a rush in late 2025 for mortgage borrowers to shift to floating rates - on the expectation that rates would fall in 2026. It isn't happening. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
The Police Credit Union has trimmed some short TD rates as well. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

MORE SALES, LOWER PRICES
REINZ says December sales volumes were firm, +8.1% higher than in December 2024, but prices were slightly softer overall in December from November, down to a median of $787,000

RETAIL STRUGGLES
Retail NZ says the Black Friday-led surge in sales in November did not continue into December and believes retailers will 'be bracing for a possible rocky few months ahead of them'. For the December quarter, retail sales (as recorded in electronic card transactions) were just +0.6% higher than in the same quarter in 2024, representing an after inflation drop that would have been felt everywhere.

LABOUR MARKET STRUGGLES
Job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".

NOT ATTRACTIVE
High numbers of NZ citizens are continuing to leave the country, reducing net migration gain to a trickle. The net population growth from migration is now down below +1000 a month.

MODEST TOURISM RECOVERY
International tourism arrivals rose by a modest +0.8% in November from October, maintaining the momentum from a +0.7% increase in October, and marking the fifth consecutive month of tourist increases. H/T Infometrics.

MORE OFFSHORE HOLIDAYING
Departures of NZ tourists rose +2.8% in November, and now sit +3.4% higher than a year ago. Departures surpassed pre-pandemic levels at the start of 2025, and have grown more slowly since. H/T Infometrics.

GETTING (A LOT) WORSE
The Crown Accounts to November were released today. That showed the OBEGAL result falling to almost -$5.9 bln for the five months to November 2025. In the same five months to November 2024 it was a deficit of -$4.7 bln, so the current result is +24% worse. (In the same five months in 2023 it was a -$2.8 bln deficit, so it will he hard to campaign about success fixing the Government's financial situation.)

MORE TAX ON CONSUMPTION, LESS INCOME TO TAX
Interestingly in the Crown Accounts, they revealed that GST was up +6.3% in November 2025 from the same month earlier, an unusual spurt. But personal income tax was only up +0.9% on the same basis. Wages and salaries are not rising, it seems.

CORPORATE BULLY BEHAVIOUR?
Aussie-owned supermarket Woolworths has been warned by the Commerce Commission for what it believes is a breach of the Grocery Industry Competition Act following a review of the major supermarkets’ delisting processes. “The possibility of products being removed from shelves is a significant weight on suppliers that can reinforce the power imbalance between major supermarkets and smaller suppliers,” Commerce Commission Head of Groceries Alice Hume says. “The risk of losing market access can lead to suppliers accepting conditions that aren’t beneficial to them, and a lack of trust about how supermarkets make these decisions." Despite its local advertising claims, Woolworths is just another outlet for its Australian buying capabilities.

PLENTY OF DEMAND FOR BNZ BOND
BNZ confirmed today that the interest rate for the $650 mln they have raised in their recent unsecured unsubordinated fixed rate notes issue maturing on January 28, 2031 has been set at 4.354% pa at a margin of +0.7% over swap. (This is higher than their 5 year TD rate offer at 5.10%.)

BIDDERS WANT (& GET) HIGHER RETURNS
Today's $450 mln NZ Government Bond tender attracted 106 bids worth $1.8 bln for the two maturities. Only 29 bids were successful. The May 2030 bond delivered a yield of 3.72% compared to 3.58% for the equivalent bond just one week ago. The May 2035 bond delivered a yield of 4.45%, compared to the 4.31% for the equivalent maturity also just one week ago.

DITTO LGFA BOND TENDER
The recent $100 mln Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) bond tender attracted $245 mln in 31 bids, of which just 10 swere successful. Their May 2032 bond delivered a yield of 4.33%, up from 3.86% at the equivalent tender on November 5, 2025. Their April 2037 bond delivered a yield of 4.95% compared to the prior equivalent event on July 2, 2025 of 5.16%.

OUR LATEST QUIZ IS OPEN TO PLAY
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 RECOVERS IN ITS OWN RELIEF RALLY
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.1% so far today. That puts it down -0.7% over the past five working days. But is up +5.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +4.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.3%, anchoring the day's recovery. There are 51 gainers led by Fletcher Building (+3.7%), Goodman Property (+2.8%), a2 Milk (+1.9%) and Vital (+1.8%). There are 33 decliners today, led by Vista (-3.2%), Gentrack (-2.2%), Serko (-1.4%, and The Warehouse (-1.3%).

MORE JOBS (THERE)
The Australian labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.

WHEN YOU LOSE YOUR WAY, YOU CAN LOOSE IT ALL
In Australia, their federal political opposition is in disarray. The Coalition (of the Liberals and the Nationals) has fractured with the boy-led right-wing National Party (a country party), saying it will no longer work with the girl-led Liberals. The writing is on the wall for the Liberals who when Dutton-led, crashed out significantly at the last election, especially in urban electorates. The Liberals are leaking right-wing voters (of the Morrison/Dutton/Abbott variety) to the very much more right-wing Pauline Hanson party, an existential threat. While the support numbers defecting are not large, it is making the Liberals unelectable and no path back to government. The Nationals don't want to be tethered to a sinking ship.

BUT EMERGING LABOUR MARKET STRUGGLES
In Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".

GLOBAL TRADE IS FAR FROM DEAD
Japan’s exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November’s +1.3% rise.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.50% yesterday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 4.80% and its highest since September 2023. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.27% and down -7 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp from this time yesterday, now at 4.58%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Wednesday's rate up +4 bps at 4.56%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from yesterday at 4.25%.

EQUITIES IN YO-YO RELIEF RALLY
The local equity market is now up +1.1% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.8% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +0.2% today so far and Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is also up +0.4% at its open. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +1.2%, regaining half of Tuesdays drop.

OIL RISES
The oil price in the US is up +US$1 at just under US$60.50/bbl while the international Brent price has hardly moved, still just under US$65.50/bbl.

CARBON PRICE FIRM
Secondary market has seen more transactions and the price is firm at $37/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD EASES
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$37/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4799/oz and off its record high. Silver down at US$92/oz and platinum has fallen to US$2420/oz.

NZD MARGINALLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 58.5 USc again. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 50.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 62.5 and up +10 bps. The USD has slipped again to its lowest against the Chinese yuan since May 2023.

BITCOIN STOPS FALLING
The bitcoin price is now at US$90,006 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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