Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. However, ASB became the latest bank to sign up to the Kianga Ora First Home Loan scheme, joining Westpac, Kiwibank, SBS Bank, The Co-operative Bank, and some credit unions and building societies. More here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are no changes today. Here is a review of the current state of play. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
BREMAN IS A DOVE
As expected, the RBNZ held its OCR at 2.25% today, and said "The Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2 percent midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band." So that probably means the April or May hike financial markets had priced in are less likely now - if they are right about the inflation track. It also lowers the chance of a pre-election rate hike. More here.
SUBDUED, WITH A RESET
Cotality said the housing market started the year in 'subdued fashion' as the rental market undergoes a 'reset'.
RBNZ REJECTS DOSH BANK APPLICATION AS IT DOESN'T LEND MONEY
Shane Marsh, co-founder of fintech Dosh, says the Reserve Bank has rejected Dosh's application to become a transactional bank focusing on accounts, payments, cards and savings. Marsh says the application was rejected primarily on the basis lending is a mandatory business activity for a NZ bank. He says the Reserve Bank is open to Dosh resubmitting an application that includes lending activity, and Dosh is considering this and other options.
PRODUCERS PASS ON MORE THAN THIER COSTS
Producer cost inflation came in at 3.2% in the year to December, up from +2.8% in the year to September. Producers raised their prices by +3.5% (up from 3,25%) in the same December year.
BUT CAPITAL GOODS NOT INFLATING
Capital goods inflation is much lower, up just +1.5% from a year ago.
ESSENTIALLY NO FARM INFLATION
Data from StatsNZ shows that there is still no inflation on the farm. Their farm expenses tracking to December 2025 across all farm types ranged from +0.3% (dairy) to +2.0% (horticulture), averaging +0.6% for the year.
TAKE A BREAK, DO OUR NEW QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
UP +20% IN 2026
The overnight dairy auction brought another good rise, the fourth in a row, up +3.6% in USD terms this time, up almost +4% in NZ terms. Both SMP (+3.0%) and WMP (+2.5%) posted good gains again. But the star the show today was the +10.7% rise for the butter price. This result probably won't change any farmgate payout forecasts, but it will solidify current levels.
NZX50 TURNS BACK UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.2% so far today and falling. That puts it down -2.4% over the past five working days. It is up +1.7% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +1.1%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is dup +1.9% so far today. Gentrack, Property for Industry, Spark, and Kathmandu lead the NZX50 gains while Serko, Mainfreight, Napier Port, and Precinct are the major decliners.
FLETCHER'S 'DEMANDING YEAR'
Fletcher Building made an after-tax loss of -$11 mln for the first half of the 2026 financial year. They gave no update on the pending sale of the company's residential business.
SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are probably lower today after the RBNZ release. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 2.50% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps at 4.72%. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -6 bps at 2.11 bps today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -8 bps from yesterday at 4.40%. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday's rate down -2 bps at 4.42%. The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from this time yesterday, now just on 4.06%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has recovered in Wednesday trade, up +1.2% so far. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong and Shanghai are closed for the CNY holiday. Singapore is closed today too. Wall Street is up +0.1% in its Tuesday trade.
OIL DIPS
American oil prices are down -50 USc at just under US$62.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is on US$67.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STALLS
There have been very few trades again today on the secondary market and the price is still at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD EASES FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen again from this time yesterday, down -US$55/oz and now at US$4904/oz. Silver is down-US$2 at just under US$76/oz.
NZD SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just on 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.5 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN FALLS
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,363 and down -1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has stayed modest however at +/- 1.7%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
21 Comments
What would you do if you owned Bitcoin right now? Hold on to it for a recovery, or sell while you can? I wonder if we will see many do the latter any day now...
If the recent dearth of comments of Bitcoin on this site, and especially with the numerous posts on gold and silver as the new darlings, is an reflection and indication of that of the wider world, then Bitcoin has lost its appeal and will be on its way out - and especially so given the newer alternative cryptocurrencies seem to be now the preferred glamorous choice.
Selling is a taxable event . But I guess for some there's tax to pay, and others can claim a loss, maybe?
For those who have never declared a profit on Bitcoin sales, then I wish them best of luck to now try and claim a loss with IRD.
If they've only ever HODL'd the maybe they've never had a taxable event?
For those who have never declared a profit on Bitcoin sales, then I wish them best of luck to now try and claim a loss with IRD.
A loss is a loss. Should be tax deductible, rat poison or not.
According to AI it is deductible. But if I was IR I would audit, suspecting previous gains that hadn’t been declared due to crypto being anonymous.
That doesn't make sense. Unrealized gains on ratty / crypto are not taxable events in Aotearoa. The IRD treats crypto as property, and profits from disposal are taxed as income at your marginal income tax rate, ranging from 10.5% to 39%. The critical trigger is realization - you must actually dispose of the asset for a taxable event to occur.
What would you do if you owned Bitcoin right now?
Only the individual owner can answer that question and it would depend on many factors: conviction, cost price, personal liquidity, etc. All I know is that the vultures are biding their time to pick at the carcasses.
Was thinking similar about Aussie tech company Atlassian. Down 73% in past 12 months. Despite USD5 billion in revenue, on a GAAP basis, it still runs at a small operating loss (roughly −3% margin in FY25).
HODL, the time to sell was when it gave up 95K. I’m HODLing all the way to zero
The San Francisco Centre mall was widely regarded as the largest and one of the best-known malls in this city. it closed late last month and is for sale. Asking price is USD100 million (about USD67 per square foot), a 92% drop from its valuation of USD1.2 billion in 2016.
Even thought CBRE is handling the sale, it's obvious why their share price is taking a beating.
https://therealdeal.com/san-francisco/2024/01/12/value-of-westfield-san…
Funny how that’s not happening so much here. And I’m not sure if it will? If I buy clothes or shoes I’d rather have a look than buy online.
I suspect it’s because our malls are quite nice, while there’s were all about being as cheap as possible, if the place is awful maybe it’s nicer to buy online.
It's at least 2 decades since I visited a mall to shop. Clothes & shoe nominal sizes can vary across the world however if you're buying at much less than half nz prices the odd error is acceptable
If you did go you may be surprised at how busy they are.
I’ve never had much luck online. Normally it’s cheap ‘cause it’s crap.
Just remembered that until recently we had an Akl Fuel Tax, intended to be used for transport infrastructure in Akl. Current govt canned it then it got memory-holed. Kitty would probably be in the low billions by now? We just got through a whole news cycle of new infrastructure ideas about tolls etc and scarce a mention of it. For Akl anyway, they should have just stuck with the regional fuel tax.
IIRC there were some pump price comparisons at the time that suggested the rest of the country (esp Wgtn) was subsidising Aucklands fuel tax
How would that have worked?
Agree makes no sense. If you can set prices in Wellington to whatever you feel like, why would you wait for a tax on Auckland to do it?
I get the feeling that Nationals road promises are coming back to haunt them. Most of the projects had less benefit than they cost, and that was before recent inflation. Meanwhile hospitals, water, super, education, electricity, etc all need money.
So, why is the 10 year UST dropping ? Anyone ?
Economy heading down and so are interest rates?
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.