Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
WBS raised its 18 and 24 month fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
NBS raised most rates for 12 months and longer. WBS trimmed its one year offer. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
POTENTIAL SELLERS OUTPACE BUYERS
The housing market is having a buyer's summer as new listings surge. New residential listings and total stock levels on Realestate.co.nz are both now at their highest levels in more than a decade.
NO SUSTAINED TREND
Service industries drove a rise in filled jobs in January as some growth returned in the month following a dip in December. This metric has been yo-yoing since September, so there is no sustained trend yet.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
GOING FOR GROWTH BY ALLOWING MORE RAIDS ON KIWISAVER BALANCES
Government will be changing the law to allow KiwiSaver withdrawals to buy farms. And people on serviced tenancies are to be exempt from living in their first home, so their next home purchase will become qualified for a KiwiSaver withdrawal.
NZX50 RETREATS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.0% so far today although that is less than the earlier -1.4% initial drop. Still that puts it up +1.2% over the past five working days. and leaves it up +3.4% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -1.2% so far today. The main gainers are Michael Hill (+2.9%), Vulcan Steel (+2.3%), Goodman Property (+1.0%), and Port of Tauranga (+1.0%). But there are only 22 gainers today whereas there are 61 decliners led by Ryman (-4.0%), Vista (-3.7%), Serko (-3.0%) and Genesis (-2.6%).
LOG MARKET FLAT-LINES
Log prices are little-changed in February from January, but higher shipping costs, partly because backhaul capacity is lower, is leading customers to get charged more for this recovery. Prices are hovering at their long run average. Domestic demand comes with rising hopes
HOUSE PRICE STILL RISING QUICKLY THERE
In Australia, the Cotality Home Value Index rose +0.7% in February, easing slightly from a +0.8% gain in January. Price growth remained strong in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, but values were flat in Melbourne and Sydney. Year on year, national home values rose +9.6%, moderating from +10.2% rise in January on this basis.
JAPAN RISES NOTABLY
The rise and rise of Japanese manufacturing is now getting real momentum. Their February factory PMI burst out of its trend (confirming the January rise), to now be at almost a four year high. This is on the back of output, new orders and employment that all expanded at their fastest rates since January 2022.
DITTO TAIWAN ...
Not to be outdone, Taiwan's factory PMI rose sharply too in February, although this also came with higher inflationary pressure than for Japan. Firms there are struggling to meet demand.
... AND MANY OTHER ASIAN NATIONS
In some other selected Asian nations, their factory PMI's were mostly positive. This is true for Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand, although the same survey in Malaysia isn't quite so positive.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today as many await US bond market signals tomorrow. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.49% on Friday and has been like this for nine days straight. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is little-changed at 4.65% nervously awaiting US signals. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -2 bps at 2.09% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.36%, little-changed from Friday with the same nervous wait as in Australia. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Friday rate down -3 bps at 4.33%. The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from this morning, still just on 3.96% after an earlier deeper fall. But it is still -6 bps lower than on Friday. All eyes will be on the US credit spreads when markets reopen in the US tomorrow.
EQUITIES LOWER BUT NOT CRASHING
The local equity market has fallen -1.1% in Monday trade. And the ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has started its week down -1.4% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -2.1% but Shanghai is up +0.2% as the home team comes out in support. Singapore is down a very chunky -1.8% (for them). Wall Street futures trade suggests only a minor -0.4% dip on the S&P500 when it opens tomorrow.
OIL RISES SHARPISH
American oil prices are up +$2.50 at just over US$69.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$76/bbl.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been few trades today on the secondary market, but the price has dipped slightly to $47.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold has risen from this morning, up +US51/oz and now at US$5329/oz and almost back to its January 29 record high. Silver is holding at just under US$93/oz. (Its record is US$116/oz.)
NZD ONLY MAGINALLY LOWER NOW
The Kiwi dollar is down just -10 bps from this morning against the USD, now at just under 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 84.3 AUc. Against the euro we up +10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 63.4 and down -10 bps from this morning.
BITCOIN RETREATS
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,559 and down -1.3% from this morning's open. Volatility has been moderate, at +/- 2.2%.
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12 Comments
War, what is it good for?
People who make arms, bullets cruise missiles etc, trade accordingly, buy defense stocks and EFTs, they will have to buy more to replace the next months use.
Edwin Starr - War (What is it good for) + Lycris HQ!!
At a time like this you might want BlackRock to be your ETF advisor...
Pink Floyd - Dogs of War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7VTL_fLt5M
IMHO one of the best soundtracks ever recorded
had this playing while offshore sailing at 2am in the morning knowing that no one is going to come help more then a few times, on the other side when the weather clears - U2 Beautiful Day https://youtu.be/co6WMzDOh1o at 530am as the sun rises, it lifts the soul.
Its amazing how music impacts the mind.
Trump calculated that he could abuse Canada and the Western nations as much as he wants and they'd still rally behind the Empire at the drop of a hat.
Mark Carney lending his support to the “rules based order” after calling it a fraud. Sounds like something a long-time Bank of England governor would say.
“Canada’s position remains clear: the Islamic Republic of Iran is the principal source of instability and terror throughout the Middle East, has one of the world’s worst human rights records, and must never be allowed to obtain or develop nuclear weapons." [https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2026/02/28/statement-prime-mini…]
His official statement reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and to ensure the security of its people, positioning Canada as supportive of U.S. action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while calling for the protection of civilians and careful monitoring of the crisis.
"His official statement reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and to ensure the security of its people, positioning Canada as supportive of U.S. action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while calling for the protection of civilians and careful monitoring of the crisis."
150 Iranian schoolgirls disagree. Lets also remember that the USA & UK created this antidemocratic regime in another people’s country in the 1950s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
All about oil & the USA Midterms / Israel’s upcoming elections
150 Iranian schoolgirls disagree
Much of the Global South would disagree with Carney. And the Western nations.
Still doesn't mean that many Western people thought he was the cat's whiskers when he did his virtue performance.
“Canada’s position remains clear: the Islamic Republic of Iran is the principal source of instability and terror throughout the Middle East, has one of the world’s worst human rights records, and must never be allowed to obtain or develop nuclear weapons."
So you're saying Carney is wrong? You're all good with the morality police clubbing people to death for showing an ankle? Maybe with Hamas trotting around with a nuke in a suitcase?
"Much of the Global South would disagree"
Sure, but which of these fine democracies are paragons of virtue?
These pricks just shot THOUSANDS of protesters, and injured tens more.
Aside from any of that the actual issue is the prospect of a conflict involving nuclear weapons. Now Israel has been so armed for near to fifty years and with no need to resort to those weapons. But should it become necessary then every nation in the region will be decimated.You can argue until you are blue in the face that Israel has effectively stolen a march, and as indiscriminately as you may choose to describe it, but that is the major card in the deck and be it right or be it wrong, the ultimate fact that the whole scenario pivots on.
Weakening kiwisaver to prop up house prices is just prolonging two issues, ones that can't be undone.
I wish they'd put more thought into it, almost like they're purposely planting a problematic seed so they have something to campaign on fixing a few terms down the line.
How about addressing the accommodation supplement rort propping up rent prices, more pressure on making homes affordable is the aim, nevermind (that one definition) of growth, for growths sake.
No one can stop the tide of reversion to the mean. That's why they pretend to tut tut to the national landlords knowing they can not stop prices falling to restore the yields that new investors require to enter the market.
Behind the scenes National could not care less about the face value of houses, its the impact to the economy of jobs in roofing, plumbing, landscaping, foundation work etc etc etc that they need, the last thing they need is Team USA pissing all over our major trade partner China.
Inflation?...no worries.
E mail today...
"The increase across the above categories is being driven by volatile international market conditions flowing into the New Zealand Market: both aluminium and nickel international commodity prices have seen sustained upward price momentum. Aluminium has recently pushed toward three-year highs, driven by global supply constraints and increasing energy costs. Ongoing international trade tensions, including high-level sector tariffs on steel and aluminium in major markets continue to disrupt traditional supply routes and keep procurement costs elevated. While we hope for greater market stability, current global conditions remain fluid, and we may need to review pricing again should cost pressures persist."
And Trump thinks this will all be sorted in 4 weeks (or less) ...lmao. Memories are much longer.
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