Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Treasury has adjusted its Kiwi Bond interest rates today. It cut its 6 month rate by -25 bps, and raised its 2 and 4 year rates by +25 bps. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
The Cotality Home Value Index shows housing values have been largely flat overall for more than a year. That is confirmed by their February data, even through it shows a modest lift in national property values. "Nothing to get carried away about", they say.
'MORE FARMERS THAN EVER MAKING A PROFIT'
A record-high 70% of farmers responding to the twice-yearly Federated Farmers Confidence Survey say their farm is currently profitable. Also, see this summary report.
$2.1M FINE FOR ASB
The High Court has imposed a $2.1 mln penalty on ASB for fair‑dealing breaches relating to insurance and banking services which the bank self-reported to the Financial Markets Authority and has undertaken remediation for. ASB admitted to false and/or misleading representations resulting in financial harm to customers failure to correctly apply multi‑policy discounts on ASB‑branded insurance products, and failure to apply fee exemptions for eligible FastNet Business customers. ASB has refunded some 25,000 customers about $4.7 mln. Adam Boyd, ASB's Executive General Manager for Personal Banking, has apologised, and says changes have been made to processes, including; "working closely with our insurance partner [IAG ] in relation to the multi-policy discount matter, to prevent these issues happening in the future.”
PERKING UP SLIGHTLY
The modest but positive consumer spending growth that was seen in January was repeated in February, according to data from Worldline. The Auckland/Northland region saw its largest lift in annual spending growth in 24 months.
TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.
NOT PERKING UP
Q4-2025 data from StatsNZ shows construction activity was down -3.1% in December, mainly due to a sharp drop in non-residential work (-6.5%). Residential activity was also down (-1.1%) but looks to be finding a base. Overall, Auckland was down -2.5%, Waikato was down -5.3%, Wellington down -9.8%, but Christchurch was up +4.0%.
MORE TAXES BUT BIGGER DEFICITS
The seven month Crown accounts to January 2026 were released today showing a larger deficit. One item of interest is the sharply lower tax collected on interest earned as savers move their holdings out of term deposits. Also interesting was a bounce back in GST collections in January after a very tough December. And as usual, tax takes on wages and salaries are rising faster than inflation as Minister Willis hoovers up more via bracket creep. (Treasury only provides year-to-date data which of course hides month-by-month shifts. We calculate these shifts for our background analysis reporting.)
RATEPAYERS ARE THE "SOMEONE ELSE" WHO PAYS FOR A SHINY NEW TRAIN SET
Auckland Council said today that rates will rise +7.9% in the next year. For the average ratepayer that is an extra +$320, from $4055 in 2025/2026 to $4375 in 2026/2027. Most of that is because of the launch and subsidies involved with the about-to-launch Central Rail Link. Forever into the future, Auckland ratepayers will be providing this service to commuters for less than it costs to run. But at least it is a fun project for the bureaucrats who run Auckland Council.
WINNERS & LOSERS IN THE MORTGAGE MARKET
Our first analysis of the RBNZ Dashboard data is of home loan market share. It shows that ANZ is losing share and Kiwibank is gaining market share. The challenger banks are losing share as well. From September to December, ANZ lost -0.12%, ASB won +0.05%, BNZ lost -0.01%, Kiwibank won +0.09%, Westpac won +0.02%, and all the challenger banks lost -0.03%. Taking a year on year look, ANZ lost -0.36%, ASB won +0.31%, BNZ won +0.4%, Kiwibank won +0.26% and the challenger banks lost -0.20%. None of these shifts are large over a year, indicating how sticky home loan customers are. But large sums are involved so as an example, if ANZ had held its December 2024 share by December 2025 it would have had an extra $1.375 bln in home loans. Small share shifts can mean large dollar lending shifts.
OVERALL MODEST PROFIT RISE HIDES SOME GOOD GAINS BY TWO LARGE BANKS
Our second analysis of the Dashboard data shows that all retail banks earned $7.226 bln in after-tax profits in the year to December 2025. That was up +2.4% over the year. But ANZ's profits on that basis were up +7.3%, ASB's were down -11.4%, BNZ's were up +7.3%, Kiwibank's were up +4.2%, and Westpac's were up +1.8%. You can inspect all retail bank profit results here.
NZX50 UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.7% so far today. That leaves it down -0.3% over the past five working days, but up +3.1% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +9.8%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.9% so far today. Gentrack, a2 Milk, Ryman and Precinct are among top NZX50 gainers; while F&P Healthcare, Hallensteins, Chorus and Auckland Airport are the big decliners.
HIGH DEMAND BUT ONLY AT HIGHER YIELDS
The 96 bidders at today's $450 mln NZGB bond tender pushed up yields even though they bid just over $2 bln for these two maturities. Details here.
ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE MILESTONE
We reported on the February new vehicle registrations yesterday. Today the Motor Industry Association is pointing out "an important fleet milestone, with more than 100,000 NZ-new battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles registered across light vehicles, motorcycles and heavy vehicles." Still there is a very long way to go. There are a total of 4,676,600 total vehicles registered, so the electrified portion is just 2.1%. (Of course, it is much more when you add in the non plug-in hybrids.)
IMPOSTER SCAM
Tax bosses are being impersonated in social media as part of sophisticated scams. The IRD is warning people to be wary of social media scams impersonating "well known New Zealanders" and key officials. An image of a man said to be the Commissioner of Inland Revenue, Peter Mersi, was used as part of a social media scam inviting people to a closed live webinar on upcoming crypto tax changes.
THE NZ STORY FOR INVESTORS
The excellent NZ Story has put together the New Zealand Investment Story resources, designed to help government agencies and exporters share a consistent, compelling and aspirational investment story to attract investors to all New Zealand has to offer. The lead video is here.
FADING?
In Australia, household spending rose +4.6% in January from a year ago, the slowest pace since late May, following a +5.0% rise in December. This was a smaller increase than expected.
SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates are probably rising again today as risk premiums rise again. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.48% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.79%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.79%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +4 bps at 2.15% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.48%, up +4 bps from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with Tuesday rate up +1 bp at 4.40%. The UST 10yr yield is up +7 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.11%. All eyes remain on the US credit spreads which are rising on top of this.
EQUITIES FIGHT BACK
The local equity market has risen +0.7% in Thursday trade. The ASX200 is up +0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday bouncing back +2.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is up +1.0% and Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore is also up +0.4%. Wall Street ended its Wednesday trade with the S&P500 up +0.8%.
OIL RISES AGAIN
American oil prices are up another +$2 at just under US$77/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FALLS
There have been a few good volume trades today on the secondary market, but the price is down -$4 at $43/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold has hardly moved from this time yesterday, down -US$6/oz and now at US$5169/oz. Silver is little-changed at just over US$84.50/oz.
NZD RISES
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from this this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 84 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.9 and up +30 bps from yesterday.
BITCOIN JUMPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$72,478 and up +5.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high, at +/- 4.4%.
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7 Comments
Last month, VIPs gathered for the $1.9 billion launch of Janu Dubai -- part of the Aman Group, one of the world's most exclusive hotel chains. Cocktails flowed at a private gala overlooking the construction site. What the guests didn't know was that one of the project's investors was about to be a wanted man.
The former Aotearoa-based conman and money launderer for the brutal "pig-butchering" scam compounds in Asia, Benjamin Mauerberger, fled Bangkok for Dubai last year as investigations mounted, yet he still managed to legitimize himself as a major UAE property player.
Mauerberger lives a gilded life in Dubai with a $100m yacht, but he is now a billionaire in a golden cage. Just this week, Thailand’s CIB went public with a criminal arrest warrant and an Interpol Red Notice. With legal nets tightening and regional tensions with Iran making it difficult to escape on his yacht, he's running out of options.
The timing is a nightmare for the Janu brand. As marketing for its 57 residences moves into high gear, the project is tied to a man authorities are seeking. The world is watching: question is will Dubai remain a vault for grey capital, or will it finally act.
https://whalehunting.projectbrazen.com/the-aman-connection-how-a-transn…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360947202/trade-me-scraps-bank-transfer…
No more bank transfer plus lower success fees
Members had told the company that second-hand selling had become too costly, Stewart said. She acknowledged that competition from other websites was also a factor.
“It's absolutely true that New Zealanders have more options than ever as to where they buy and sell and Facebook is for sure our biggest competitor.
“Like most businesses we do keep an eye on what our competitors are up to but this really is about listening to what our customers are telling us they need right now so that we can create the best experience we possibly can on trading.”
At the same time, Trade Me will start charging a service fee for purchases over $20. The fee will start at 99c for purchases between $20 and $100, rising to $1.99 for purchases between $100 and $250 and $4.99 for purchases over $250. Nearly half of trades on the website were under $20.
As a result, a $100 transaction on the website will lead to Ping and service fees of around $3 - down from around $8 under the old success fee model.
We're obviously paying far too much tax
$156k for a kumara patch (following the previous $4M to play whalesong to trees)
OMG my vege garden is 30 times this size and even has a heated green house.... The entire thing was less then 3k due to crafty trademe buying.
where do I apply for such grant funding?
Was thinking for research into fishing on the Kaipara (Traditional Wahine roles in food provision etc etc)
... ITM fishing style boat required....
and a ford ranger to tow it
Who gets to keep the spades? Massey University? Or the project director?
To refer to Wilde’s Gwendolyn Fairfax “I am glad to say, I have never seen a spade,” and I bet you that applies too, to all those that got the biggest lick of the $156,132 ice cream squandered. Who the heck, with any iota of moral or fair aptitude, would sanction and promote such a rip off of the tax paid by the opposite kind of New Zealander. That is the one who actually works and pays the tax that funded it.
RATEPAYERS ARE THE "SOMEONE ELSE" WHO PAYS FOR A SHINY NEW TRAIN SET
Auckland Council could instead target the retail outlets in the CBD that are still operating. They will be the ones that benefit from the Central Rail Link and, more importantly, they are clearly profitable enough to have survived the ongoing disruptions caused by the construction of the Central Rail Link.
/sarc (like, if it wasn't obvious enough already)
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