A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; BNZ raises mortgage rates, QV finds flat market, current account deficit wider, dairy prices hold, monitoring fuel stocks, swaps lower, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised all its fixed rates for terms 2-5 years. Details here. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

FLAT PATCH
QV has confirmed that the housing market has been 'steady as she goes' over summer, with values flat, in fact an unusually flat summer.

THE FOG OF WAR
Consumer confidence has taken a knock, albeit only a small one at this stage. The Westpac-McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence index fell -1.8ppts in March, taking it to a level of 94.7. A level below 100 indicates that there are more households who are pessimistic about economic conditions than those who are optimistic.

THE FOG OF PEACE
The current account deficit widened in the December quarter. The deficit between what we earn overseas and what we spend has increased, though at -3.7% of GDP it remains manageable particularly compared with some of the figures in our recent past

STEADY IMPROVEMENT
Our international investment position improved in December 2025 to -$197.2 bln, from -$203 bln in Q3-2025. This was because our international assets rose to +$480.5 bln (up +9.1% in a year), while our international liabilities retreated to -$677.8 bln (although up +4.0% from a year earlier). As a proportion of all economic activity (ie GDP) our net IIP deficit improved to 44.4% of GDP, which is its lowest level since the start of these records in 2000, when it was 80%.

DAIRY PRICES HOLD. CHINA LESS ACTIVE
The overnight dairy auction brought little change in overall prices, but there was surprising variation between the commodities on offer. The net result was a tiny +0.1% gain in USD, +0.4% in NZD. But AMF rose +6.4% and SMP rose +5.2%. Offsetting these was WMP which dropped -4.0%. These shifts are much larger than the derivatives market signaled. In fact, the AMF price is back up to late 2024 levels, and the SMP is now at its elevated October 2022 levels - and apart from those pandemic distortions, back to the unusual 2014 levels. The WMP shift, which seems big, actually isn't when viewed from a slightly longer perspective. Overall, there was good demand, mainly from precautionary buying however, and from everywhere except from China. That deserves watching.

TAKE A BREAK AND DO OUR QUIZ
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

NZX50 TURNS UP
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is heading for a -0.4% fall over the past five working days, but is up +1.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +9.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down -0.7% so far today. Tourism Holdings, Air New Zealand, SkyTV and the NZX drive market gains, with Summerset, F&P Healthcare and Sanford leading the losses.

MORE SOCIAL HOUSING BONDS
Community Housing Funding Agency has launched a $100 mln wholesale social bond issue. Before this, the CHFA has now borrowed $450 mln, on-lending to 25 social housing borrowers. (You may be interested in this through your KiwiSaver funds.)

GET READY
From 1 April 2026, the adult minimum wage will go up from $23.50 to $23.95 per hour, and the starting-out and training minimum wage will go up from $18.80 to $19.16 per hour. Around 122,500 workers currently earning below the new minimum wage rates should get an increase in their pay packets as a result of this change. (If you pay minimum wage, are you running a zombie company? Is this the main reason it survives?)

NEW ASB DIRECTOR
ASB says Jim Brown will join its board from April 1. Brown chairs Secure Trust Bank Plc in the UK , and was previously CEO of Sainsbury's Bank between 2019 and 2024.

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SEVEN WEEKS FUEL STOCKS
If you want to keep track of our overall fuel reserves in light of the Hormuz war disruptions, MBIE has a useful accounting (by fuel type) that shows we have about 50 days cover for all major uses.

HOLDING SOFT
In Australia, the six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, held at +0.08% in February, unchanged from January but down from more firmly positive reads seen late last year. Of course, this metric covers periods before the US-Iran war.

BIG IMPROVEMENT
Meanwhile the Japanese Reuters Tankan Index rose to 18 points in March from 13 points in February and its highest (non-pandemic) level since 2019.

SWAP RATES RETREAT
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.53% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps at 4.91%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.83%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -4 bps at 2.24% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67%, down -7 bps from this time Tuesday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate down -5 bps at 4.68. The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps from yesterday, now back at 4.19%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY POSITIVE AGAIN
The local equity market has risen +0.7% in Wednesday trade so far. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Wednesday up +1.9% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.1% and Shanghai is down -0.3%. Singapore is up +0.7%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade up +0.2% on the S&P500, after giving up morning gains.

OIL EASES SLIGHTLY AGAIN
American oil prices have fallen -US$1 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$95/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc to just over US$102.50/bbl. There are still no ships transiting the Straits of Hormuz, other than a handful of ships with Iran's blessing.

CARBON PRICE DOWN
There have been more trades so far today on the secondary market, but the price has fallen -$2.50 to $39/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen -US$23/oz and now back at US$4999/oz. Silver is down -US$2.50 to US$79.50/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now at just over 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.2 and little-changed from where we were this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
The bitcoin price is now at US$754,297 and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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