A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; switching frenzy subsides, commercial vacancies rise, bid numbers spike for NZGBs, the diesel problem, swaps hold, NZX up, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from Kiwibank, again, details here. SBS Bank also raised fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank also raised TD rates for one year and longer, including a 4.5% rate for three years, matching ASB. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

SWITCHING FRENZY SUBSIDES
Latest Reserve Bank figures show the huge wave of re-fixing of mortgages taking place before Christmas is now well and truly subsiding, along with the related bank switching.

TAKE CARE ONLINE
ASB is urging people and businesses to be alert, with calls from scammers impersonating bank staff on the rise again. The scammers have been asking people to verbally share verification codes to access online banking, or directing them to fake bank websites to enter details. No bank staff will ever ask for your banking passwords, PIN, verification codes sent through your mobile phone or codes from your token. They will never ask you to type a web address into your browser, nor ask you to enter any of your details or codes. Anyone who does should be treated with suspicion. Just hang up, and call the bank yourself.

OVERALL TOUGHER FOR COMMERCIAL LANDLORDS (EASIER FOR TENANTS?)
The latest monitoring shows there are higher levels of commercial leases being listed. This is not showing early signals of eased pressure on commercial landlords. In fact, the steading in supply over the first two months of 2026 didn't hold in March and there are now more than 27,000 properties listed on realestate.co.nz. That is +15.2% more than a year ago (+1570)., and the pace of supply seems to be accelerating. It has suddenly (March) got particularly tough in South Auckland, in Palmerston North, Wellington and Dunedin. It seems to be easing in Auckland Central, and Queenstown, and was already low in Christchurch

NZX50 RISES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.8% so far today. It is heading for a -0.1% weekly drop, and down -0.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.4% so far today. Mainfreight, Infratil, NZX and Summerset drive gains, with Oceania, Investore Property, Skellerup and a2 Milk leading the decliners.

POPULARITY RISES, YIELDS DON'T
Today's NZGB tenders attracted the most bids since October 2025. But only 38 of the 147 bids were accepted (of 45 of 180 if you include the popular linker). Yields for the two main offers were little differed to the equivalent offers one week ago. The linker achieved 2.35% above inflation which was about -25 bps lower than the average for IIBs over the past year or so.

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DONE WELL
In Australia, total household wealth rose by +2.5% in December from September to AU$18.8 tln, up +9.0% in the year, according to data released today. Of the +2.5% quarterly rise, +2.0% was from rising house prices, +0.3% from rising super balances. While no-one is saying this household wealth is evenly distributed, the new level is equivalent to AU$679,200 per capita, and a +7.7% rise from December 2024. All this data is nominal and not inflation adjusted but clearly on average these gains are higher than CPI inflation.

THE DIESEL PROBLEM
But that may be in imminent threat. Australia runs on subsidised diesel, as Bloomberg points out. Their calculations show they consume 7.7 barrels per person per year. Seriously. That is more than 1200 liters per person. Much of that keeps 'the outback' in touch with the cities. And now they are running out. Could get serious very quickly. In New Zealand our consumption is 740 liters/person per year. Still serious, about the same as the US or Germany on a per capita basis, way more than say Japan at about half our per capita rate. But even Japan faces severe effects. Those diesel subsidies in Australia now total AU$11 bln, much of it to miners who are not incentivised to be energy efficient.

LOCAL TRACKING
You can track the diesel price monitoring by the MBIE's data here. Basically, petrol prices are now at record highs, but our local diesel prices have not quite reached the pandemic peaks. But that can't be far off.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to turned back up today, but not significantly. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.27% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, unchanged from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -11 bps at 4.72%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this time yesterday at 4.35%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has risen +0.8% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is unchanged however in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday up +0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.9% and Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore is up +0.5%. Wall Street had a moderate Wednesday trade with the S&P500 ending up +0.5% before the evidence of the US's wishful fantasies.

OIL TURNS BACK UP
American oil prices have risen +US$3.50 with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5 at US$103/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf, with Trump's utterances seemingly deluded.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen back -US$64/oz and now back at US$4532/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at US$72/oz.

NZD DIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just on 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.8 and down a net -20 bps from yesterday..

BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,211 and up +0.9% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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