Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are changes to report today from Kiwibank, again, details here. SBS Bank also raised fixed rates. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank also raised TD rates for one year and longer, including a 4.5% rate for three years, matching ASB. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
SWITCHING FRENZY SUBSIDES
Latest Reserve Bank figures show the huge wave of re-fixing of mortgages taking place before Christmas is now well and truly subsiding, along with the related bank switching.
TAKE CARE ONLINE
ASB is urging people and businesses to be alert, with calls from scammers impersonating bank staff on the rise again. The scammers have been asking people to verbally share verification codes to access online banking, or directing them to fake bank websites to enter details. No bank staff will ever ask for your banking passwords, PIN, verification codes sent through your mobile phone or codes from your token. They will never ask you to type a web address into your browser, nor ask you to enter any of your details or codes. Anyone who does should be treated with suspicion. Just hang up, and call the bank yourself.
OVERALL TOUGHER FOR COMMERCIAL LANDLORDS (EASIER FOR TENANTS?)
The latest monitoring shows there are higher levels of commercial leases being listed. This is not showing early signals of eased pressure on commercial landlords. In fact, the steading in supply over the first two months of 2026 didn't hold in March and there are now more than 27,000 properties listed on realestate.co.nz. That is +15.2% more than a year ago (+1570)., and the pace of supply seems to be accelerating. It has suddenly (March) got particularly tough in South Auckland, in Palmerston North, Wellington and Dunedin. It seems to be easing in Auckland Central, and Queenstown, and was already low in Christchurch
NZX50 RISES AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.8% so far today. It is heading for a -0.1% weekly drop, and down -0.6% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +5.7%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.4% so far today. Mainfreight, Infratil, NZX and Summerset drive gains, with Oceania, Investore Property, Skellerup and a2 Milk leading the decliners.
POPULARITY RISES, YIELDS DON'T
Today's NZGB tenders attracted the most bids since October 2025. But only 38 of the 147 bids were accepted (of 45 of 180 if you include the popular linker). Yields for the two main offers were little differed to the equivalent offers one week ago. The linker achieved 2.35% above inflation which was about -25 bps lower than the average for IIBs over the past year or so.
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DONE WELL
In Australia, total household wealth rose by +2.5% in December from September to AU$18.8 tln, up +9.0% in the year, according to data released today. Of the +2.5% quarterly rise, +2.0% was from rising house prices, +0.3% from rising super balances. While no-one is saying this household wealth is evenly distributed, the new level is equivalent to AU$679,200 per capita, and a +7.7% rise from December 2024. All this data is nominal and not inflation adjusted but clearly on average these gains are higher than CPI inflation.
THE DIESEL PROBLEM
But that may be in imminent threat. Australia runs on subsidised diesel, as Bloomberg points out. Their calculations show they consume 7.7 barrels per person per year. Seriously. That is more than 1200 liters per person. Much of that keeps 'the outback' in touch with the cities. And now they are running out. Could get serious very quickly. In New Zealand our consumption is 740 liters/person per year. Still serious, about the same as the US or Germany on a per capita basis, way more than say Japan at about half our per capita rate. But even Japan faces severe effects. Those diesel subsidies in Australia now total AU$11 bln, much of it to miners who are not incentivised to be energy efficient.
LOCAL TRACKING
You can track the diesel price monitoring by the MBIE's data here. Basically, petrol prices are now at record highs, but our local diesel prices have not quite reached the pandemic peaks. But that can't be far off.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to turned back up today, but not significantly. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.54% on Wednesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.99%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 2.27% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.78, unchanged from yesterday. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Wednesday rate down -11 bps at 4.72%. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged from this time yesterday at 4.35%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market has risen +0.8% in Thursday trade so far. The ASX200 is unchanged however in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Thursday up +0.5% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -0.9% and Shanghai is little-changed. Singapore is up +0.5%. Wall Street had a moderate Wednesday trade with the S&P500 ending up +0.5% before the evidence of the US's wishful fantasies.
OIL TURNS BACK UP
American oil prices have risen +US$3.50 with the WTI benchmark now at just over US$91/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$5 at US$103/bbl. Things are still fluid and confusing in the Persian Gulf, with Trump's utterances seemingly deluded.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS (LOW)
There have been very few and very small trades so far today on the secondary market, the price is holding at $40/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen back -US$64/oz and now back at US$4532/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at US$72/oz.
NZD DIPS FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday against the USD, now at just on 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.8 and down a net -20 bps from yesterday..
BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$71,211 and up +0.9% from yesterday at this time. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.9%.
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40 Comments
In Australia, total household wealth rose by +2.5% in December from September to AU$18.8 tln, up +9.0% in the year, according to data released today.
Happy days. As the ABS notes, h'hold demand for credit in the December quarter was driven by strong growth in housing loans across all borrower types. This has been juiced by the govt's 5% deposit and "help to buy" schemes.
This has been juiced by the govt's 5% deposit and "help to buy" schemes.
I feel for those suckered into that, as we can all see the pain they'll be in in 1-3 years time.
18 years ago, an ounce of gold bought your 7 barrels of oil. Now it buys your 50 barrels.
Luke Gromen notes that Russia began growing gold reserves when the global oil market was ~40x bigger than the global gold market in annual production terms [value of annual production of oil versus gold].
I have been following the price of a barrel of oil priced in Gold as well. It is indeed at record highs. So what do you make of it ? Oil is too cheap ? Gold is too expensive ? or a combination of both ?
If things keep getting spicy gold will plummet.
Energy is the real gold.
Nothing else comes close.
Trump didn't invade Central Otago...
The observed phenomenon is that as you get a crisis
Gold will get increasingly liquidated
Normally converted into the USD
Maybe even still this time round. But probably on borrowed time.
Very well put PDK ain't that the truth.
Yes indeed, black gold. Some may recall watching the transportation, but not actually transformation, of the good family of Clampetts, on the proceeds of oil from Tennessee to Beverly Hills. Go Jethro, Beef Jerky to some.
Yes people think golds good in a crisis, but it’s the other way around. If the s hits the fan people won’t be buying gold, just selling it.
Water really becoming limited resource. Interesting article re water at Corpus Cristi, Texas:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/25/climate/water-shortage-corpus-christi-te…
When I asked ai how many population centres in Texas are facing drinking water shortages, it spat this out:
Regional Breakdown of Most Affected Areas
Region Primary Causes of Shortage Status Examples
South Texas (Rio Grande Valley) Ongoing drought and water delivery disputes with Mexico - affecting: Brownsville, Mission, McAllen.
Central Texas (Hill Country) Rapid urban growth and historically low aquifer level affecting: San Antonio, Austin, Blanco
Coastal Bend Industrial demand and failing reservoir levels affecting: Corpus Christi, Portland, Beeville
West Texas Arid climate and depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer affecting: El Paso, Midland-Odessa area.
US does have some house keeping issues
Plenty fell from the sky here today, although been dry for a while beforehand. Seems like its either drought or floods...
Whys life never just sit in a happy medium.
Because her caravan always needs work?
The work never ends
So the thought you can get somewhere, financially, romantically, or any other way, and just cruise
Is a fantasy
"The work never ends "
Possibly the truest thing you have ever written.....and work is enhanced by energy
Facilitated.
Enhanced suggests you had some to start with
:)
Fair point
Pink Floyd then were on to it way back. Follow the lyrics. Run rabbit run.
Possibly the truest thing you have ever written.....and work is enhanced by energy
Energy, collaboration, knowledge, wisdom
We're way shorter in some than others right now.
Plenty of rain this summer Jimbo. Storage hasn’t dropped below 3/4s.
Watching news now. Difficult situation in the North.
Scotch mist in southern Hawke's Bay today. Probably pretty moist for the local dog trials that kick off tomorrow.
"Water really becoming limited resource."
You're obviously not living in Auckland, lol.
Not the only ones Lou -
Iran War Could Worsen Middle East’s Water Crises | World Resources Institute
Absolutely PDK.
I'd heard of California water shortages but it is a more widespread issues in the States than I expected.
Iran's threat to desalination plants in the Gulf would have impacts that a scary to ponder - water, that most basic compound essential for life.
California hasn't built a major dam since 1980. They are not short of water, they are short of dams and just let all the flood water flow out to sea.
"With the advent of cheap solar power, the last chokepoint that has frustrated global desalination efforts is finally loosening. The cost of the energy used by desalination plants over time dwarfs the initial cost of their construction, so the availability of cheap solar power greatly increases their viability. The ease with which countries can store water also means that solar power’s chief drawback, intermittency, may be much less of a problem here than in other uses."
https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/chinese-dams-hold-billions-of-people
I thought California was giving all their water to big almond
They are not short of water, they are short of dams and just let all the flood water flow out to sea.
What good is a dam without water....
Yes Lou I have been watching the water issue for many years and think that will be a bigger problem than oil in the near future. As populations dwindle in the further future, not so much.
Found this on RNZ local government reporting.
Whanganui council faces criticism after $62k logo spend https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/590599/whanganui-council-faces-criticism…
Pretty astounding that the council identified rationale for change:
The council unveiled the new design in January, after research found most residents could not recall the council's existing crest logo.
Only the logo design cost is identified. From experience i know this only the tip of the cost iceberg. Wastage of stationery as new logo stationery is bought in, rebranding all facilities, sign writing vehicles.
Why does the local council need a highly recognisable logo? They operate in a non-competitive, public services environment.
Embarrassing and utterly unnecessary.
And in 5 years time they won’t be able to recall the new logo. They’re a bit thick these people.
They could have pumped one out with AI for free in all of 3 seconds
Good AFR article on the "give up cliff" young Aussies face, which brings together research on increasing hopelessness.
Glen James has been hosting his popular Money Money Money podcast for eight years. Lately, he’s noticed a shift. “When I started the podcast years ago, the vibe from listeners was very much ‘tell me the steps, and I’ll do the work,’” James says. “That energy is still there, but it now sits alongside a growing frustration. People are doing the right things and still feeling like the goalposts keep moving. Especially around property.”
His 100,000+ listeners are generally financially engaged, in their 30s, usually earning six figures, who want to get ahead – they’re listening to a finance podcast on their downtime, after all. But they feel like they’re falling behind. “The conversation has gone from ‘How do I save a deposit?’ to ‘Is it even worth trying?’ for a lot of younger listeners.
Is this an indicator that the generation referred to is questioning and redefining getting ahead?
Same sentiment among the youth as we saw in NZ 2020-2022. Many gave up, decided lifestyle and travel are more important as after years of hard saving, their deposit percentage was getting less due to the astronomical rise in prices of property. And off to Oz they galloped.
Well afgter reading all that, looks like the data’s pointing to tougher times, but some of the comments have already jumped ahead a few chapters
The really good news coming out all this, is that the house price bubble has burst. A country with the highest house prices in the OECD relative to income had to confront reality sooner or later. The only problem is we also have the highest cost of living in the world.
The bigger problem is neither of those are true.
And you wouldn't want to live in the top 50% of lowest cost places to live. Because the cost of living is fairly linked to incomes of a country.
But yes, people like houses and stuff cheap. High incomes for us, yet for all the things we buy in our economy to be costed like they're being made by indentured servants.
The only problem is we also have the highest cost of living in the world.
I wouldn't say this at all. Have you ever been to Switzerland? Or perhaps the hard times of those in South Sudan, or women in Afghanistan can be compared to our supposed high cost of living. We may feel our own nations issues, but we are ultimately very lucky to have the lottery of being born here.
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