A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; more retail rise rises, Auckland house building slows, more February jobs, fuel situation tracked, benefits update, swaps on hold, NZX down, NZD down, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised some fixed rates today, as did the Police Credit Union. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our new calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Heartland Bank and AMP raised some TD rates, along with WBS. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STRONG FEBRUARY GROWTH
Stats NZ's monthly employment indicators showed a +0.3% rise for jobs in February - but that was before you-know-what ...

TRENDING LOWER
Auckland's average new home construction being completed each month is now down -28% from the 2024 peak of 1630. 2026 is off to a slow start with just 853 in January. And there is this.

DONE OUR QUIZ YET? NO? DO IT NOW
Our quiz has been updated for this week's edition. You can do it here. And a new one will be added every Monday.

FORTY TIMES AS LARGE
Last week we noted the unusually high level of activity in the NZ Government bond secondary market. Data out today for the week ending March 27 shows it staying very high, although just a touch lower than the prior week. The four week rolling transaction level is now $329 bln. In four weeks. Think about that, this is enormous, one of the largest set of transactions in our economy, far larger than the real estate market. (Even at its peak in November 2021, the value of all housing transactions was $8 bln.)

NZX50 RETREATS SHARPLY, AGAIN
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -1.4% so far today. It is heading for a -1.1% weekly drop, and down -4.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up a net +4.0%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is down a chunky -2.4% so far today. Gains by Vista Group, Serko and NZX are being outweighed by sharp falls for Oceania, Fletcher, Ryman and Vulcan Steel.

TRACKING OUR FUEL SITUATION
MBIE is tracking the days of cover we have for some key fuels stocks. We will track that and update regularly here. (The next update is due on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.)

TRACKING OUR HYDRO SITUATION
And because we are looking at energy, if you are interested, here is the hydro situation in the third week of March. In both Islands, inflows have been almost exactly 'normal' recently.

PLENTY FULL ENOUGH
And while we are at it, Auckland water dams are 96% full at present, well above the seasonal normal of 75% for this time of year.

BENEFITS RISE RESTRAINED
MSD updated its February benefit data which showed that there were 217,266 people on Jobseeker support, up from 210,456 in the same month in 2025 (+3.3%). There were lesser increases for the other main adult benefits.

BENEFIT PAYMENTS TO RISE
Effective April 1, annual adjustments to benefit payments will arrive for more than a million recipients. Around 960,000 people receiving NZ Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension will get increased payments. NZ Superannuation for a married couple who both qualify will lift more than $50 to $1,708 a fortnight. Around 280,000 low-to-middle-income families will receive an increase in the family tax credit. Eligible families with one child will receive an extra $400 a year, rising to $720 for families with two children and $1,050 with three. As announced last week, an increase to the in-work tax credit will result in 143,000 working families receiving a further $50 boost per week for up to a year, as part of the temporary, targeted support to help with fuel costs. A further 14,000 families will receive up to $50 per week. In addition, Budget 2025 changes to the Working for Families abatement threshold come into effect from 1 April, and will support around 142,000 families with a boost of $14 per fortnight on average. Around 52,000 students will receive additional assistance. A single person over 24 receiving the Student Allowance will gain an additional $22 a fortnight. Over 435,000 working age beneficiaries will get increased support. A single person over 25 years old on Jobseeker Support will receive an additional $22 a fortnight. A couple with children will receive an additional $40 a fortnight (on top of the family tax credit increase).

SKINNER LEAVING BNZ
BNZ says Kate Skinner, its Executive for Digital, Data & Analytics, will leave the bank on May 22. Her role will not be replaced.

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NO REAL EASING
In Australia, their tax office said, when questioned by SME lobbyists about fears of what high fuel costs will do to SME viability, "The business community, including small businesses, can be assured that the ATO will take a practical and proportionate approach to administering the taxation law."

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up + bp at 2.54% on Friday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 5.08%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.81%. The Japanese 10 year bond is down -1 bp at 2.36% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.81, up +1 bp from this morning. The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Friday rate up +4 bps at 4.77%. The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps from this morning at 4.40%.

EQUITIES LOWER
The local equity market has fallen -1.4% in Monday trade so far. The ASX200 is down -1.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened on Monday down -4.2% in its opening trade. Hong Kong is down -1.6% and Shanghai is down -0.8%. Singapore is down -0.3%. Wall Street will open nervously tomorrow with the S&P500 futures showing unreliable signals.

OIL UP FURTHER
American oil prices have risen +US$3 with the WTI benchmark now at just under US$103/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$4 at US$116.50/bbl.

CARBON MARKET QUIET
There have been no transactions we can find so far today on the secondary market, so the price is holding at $41.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD FALLS BACK
In early Asian trade, gold has fallen back another -US$22/oz and now back at US$4471/oz. Silver is down -US$1 at just under US$66.50/oz.

NZD DIPS YET AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this morning against the USD, now at just on 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.3 and down a net -10 bps from yesterday..

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price is now at US$66,580 and up +0.1% from this morning's open. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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