Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
DAIRY PRICES EASE
The overnight dairy auction brought lower prices than at the prior full event, but not as low as at the prior Pulse event, nor what the derivatives market were expecting. Still, it was a -2.8% retreat in USD terms, down -1.4% in NZD terms and to the lowest overall level since early February. Generally the powders were softer than expected, the milk fats not as soft as expected.
CONSUMERS LACK CONFIDENCE
The Westpac-McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index shows consumer confidence in the June quarter dropped to the lowest level since 2023 due to the Middle East conflict, fuel and living costs, while spending on dining out and other entertainment is the 'weakest since 1991'.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT NOT IMPROVING
The current account balance widened by -$100 mln to a deficit of -$4.6 bln in the March 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. That takes this deficit to -$16.3 bln (or -3.6% of GDP) for the year ended 31 March 2026, and only marginally worse than the -$16 bln deficit for the year to December 2025.
WE OWE MARGINALLY LESS
New Zealand’s net international investment liability position at March 2026 was $193.1 bln (42.8% of GDP). This was $1.8 billion lower than the $194.9 bln (43.8 of GDP) liability position at December 2025. The net international investment position represents the difference between New Zealand’s assets ($505 bln) and liabilities ($698 bln) with the rest of the world. More specifically, our net external debt narrowed by $12.7 bln to $220.8 bln at March 2026 (49.0% of GDP).
FIRE SERVICE LEVY REVIEW
Government is to look at alternative ways of funding the fire and emergency system other than as a levy on insurance premiums, saying there are 'valid questions about whether this model is fair for levy payers and fit for purpose'.
FARMERS STILL VERY CONFIDENT
A Rabobank survey shows sheep and beef farmers continue to be the most optimistic about the prospects for their own farm businesses, while horticulturalists are the least.
50% PENALTY
BNZ has admitted breaching fair dealing rules by misleading customers on how interest was calculated on some non-profit accounts. They have agreed to pay $2.6 mln to the Crown through an enforceable undertaking. BNZ became aware of the issue in September 2023 after a customer query. A total of 23,103 customers were affected, with about $5.39 mln in interest underpaid. BNZ self-reported the issue to the FMA and has remediated affected customers, paying approximately $5.44 mln, including use of money interest.
ONLY TINY FIRMS GET WARNINGS
The DIA has issued multiple formal warnings to a bunch of small fry in its attempt to signal a tougher stance on anti-money laundering non-compliance.
NZX50 ON HOLD
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is little-changed (-0.1%) so far today, with a weekly rise now of +1.2%. It is up +0.9% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare has recovered another +0.8% so far today after the big retreats in the past few sessions. SkyCity casino, a2 Milk, Genesis and Oceania advance as Investore Property, Air NZ, Mainfreight and Serko lead the decliners.
FLAT EARNINGS, BIG CASHFLOW
Fletcher Building (FBU) said its divestment program is more than half done now and it will generate $450 mln in cash to be used to pay down debt. They expect to report full year earnings of about $375 mln. In the same period in 2025 they reported $384 mln on the same basis.
STRONGEST EXPORT GROWTH SINCE THE PANDEMIC RECOVERY
Japan said its exports were up +17.0% in May from a year ago to US$59 bln and its imports were up +12.5% over the same period. Export customers were dominated by China (+17.9% growth ), the US (+12.5%), ASEAN (+20.0%), and the EU (+14.5%).
AND IT WILL CONTINUE
Meanwhile Japan reported its machinery orders were strong too, up +15.6% in April from a year ago, up +8.7% from March. Japan really has its mojo back.
EVEN BETTER
In Singapore, they said their exports rose a whopping +38% in May from a year ago to a record high S$87 bln (US$51 bln) in the month, a far larger increase than anyone saw coming. It is clear that despite the US shenanigans on tariffing trade, global trade is in fine shape without them.
"BEST DEAL EVER"
The pending deal between Iran and the US is now circulating, even if not signed formally. Iran has not agreed to refrain from charging fees for Hormuz transit (but they won't charge 'tolls'). Here are three interesting paras of the 14 part deal:
4. Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
10. The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
11. The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
SWAP RATES SOFTISH
Wholesale swap rates will likely be a little lower today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 2.68% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is down -7 bps at 4.78%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond is unchanged at 2.61% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.42%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +4 bps at 4.45%.) The UST 10yr yield is down -4 bps at 4.43%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is now little-changed from yesterday, down just -0.1%. The ASX200 is up +0.5% and recovering yesterday's dip. Tokyo is has opened up +0.8%. Hong Kong is down -0.9% but Shanghai is little-changed at its open today. Singapore is up a strong +1.2%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday with the S&P500 down -0.6% in closing trade. The Nasdaq closed down -1.2%
OIL PRICES FALL
American oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday with the WTI benchmark now just over US$76/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$79/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STABLE
There have been few trades today and the price is still holding at $53/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is upUS$13/oz from this time yesterday, at US$4332/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just on US$70/oz.
NZD SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from this time yesterday against the USD, now just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 50.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61.9 and up +20 bps from this time time yesterday.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$65,787 and essentially no different from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.1%.
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13 Comments
Probably only get one bad quarter of CPI if the Iran deal holds. Might not need any OCR increases this year. Hard to see why mortgage rates are about 1% higher than the start of this year, OCR is the same.
Unless world economies rebound too quickly and you get over-exuberance, leading to inflation and high costs of debt.
NZ OCR going high or low is a very one-dimensional tool in a very multi-factorial world.
People often have a personal preference based on whether they're a net borrower (mortgage) or loaner (term deposits etc), and then interpret world events accordingly
Let's hope they do rebound quickly but not too quickly!
Get the very strong feeling the from and the hopes and dreams of JJ, that thee, is heavily debt levered up the whazzooooo.......just the same as the ZBs Mike Hosk.
Both are always barracking for mortgage rate cuts and home prices to reverse their one way crashing moves (any minute now, gonna happen, get in quick, long overdue, not maaaakin and more maaaate, since early 2023...... hahahhaha)
At least 3x OCR hikes + this year, until we have the CPI, well below the best intended 2%.
Nope I'll be debt free soon, and I'm fixed until then. And i wont be taking on more debt, been there done that. But I do prefer a good economy to a bad one, I know the DGMs find that hard to fathom.
I hope the RBNZ keep inflation in check while not destroying economic growth. I've criticised them for going too low also. The best thing for an economy is slow and steady, reliable interest rates rather than jamming them up and down all the time.
If you want to know what a 'good economy' is, perhaps learn to understand the difference between an agreement, and an energy-flow?
And collaterally, the difference between work-done (via energy entropy being increased) and proxy.
The signs are there to see, if looked for - wool demand didn't increase for no reason.
The beauty (or not) of bank determined swap rates...
Mortgage rates are set on wholesale market rates (swaps), not the OCR.
Hence it 100% makes sense why mortgage rates are higher than they were at the start of the year.
Swaps are looking soft now so we may see mortgage rate falls over the coming months.
Yep, but the swaps are mainly a prediction of the OCR. The market seems to have got ahead of itself predicting several OCR increases this year when there may not be any
It is clear that despite the US shenanigans on tariffing trade, global trade is in fine shape without them.
S'pore exports to U.S. are increasing.
And Vietnam has just become the single largest source of the U.S. goods trade deficit for the first time, with the gap hitting record levels in late 2025 and early 2026. The bilateral deficit has surged into the high‑$170B range annually and reached about $19B in a single month (Jan 2026).
ZURU has begun constructing a pet food production facility on Thailand’s eastern seaboard. The plant is roughly the size of four football fields and ZURU’s first dedicated pet food factory.
They'll be directly competing with Mars and Nestle. Interesting move considering the pet food mkt is saturated. Thai company PCG is possibly bigger than all of them.
https://www.sanjuandailystar.com/post/your-cat-s-food-probably-comes-fr…
Seems crazy doesn't it to import something that is basically food scraps.
Yes indeed
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