Summary
• Risk assets crumble as stagflation concerns return to the fore
• US rates surge higher, with US 10-year breaking decisively above 3% and nearing its 2018 cycle highs
• Little fresh news driving markets. Instead, investors appear to have concluded the Fed was hawkish after all.
• S&P500 off by more than 4%, NASDAQ down almost 6%
• USD much stronger across the board on mounting global growth concerns and rising risk aversion
• NZD and AUD both more than 2% lower; NZD takes a peek below 0.64
• BoE hikes cash rate 25bps but sounds more cautious about the need for further tightening - GBP thumped more than 2%
• NZ rates continue to experience very high volatility; likely to open much higher this morning
• Nonfarm payrolls tonight and multiple Fed officials on the speaker circuit
Good Morning
The post-FOMC rally in risk assets and bonds didn’t even last 24 hours, with markets seeing a massive reversal overnight as stagflationary fears dominate. The US 10-year rate has made a new cycle high of 3.11% and is currently 12bps higher on the day, while the USD has hit a fresh 20-year high. Equities have crumbled as rates have taken off, with the NASDAQ currently down over 5% and the S&P500 more than 4% lower. The NZD and AUD are down by more than 2% amidst a broad-based risk-off move, the NZD currently trading just above 0.64. The GBP is another key underperformer overnight, down by 2.2%, after the BoE painted a grim picture of the UK economic outlook and sounded cautious about the need for future policy tightening.
After falling sharply after Powell appeared to pour cold water on the idea of a 75bps rate hike yesterday, US rates have surged to fresh highs overnight. The US 10-year rate has decisively broken through the 3% mark, on next to no fresh news, rising a whopping 12bps to 3.06% (an intraday high of 3.11%). The US 10-year rate is now nearing its 2018 cycle high of 3.26%. The yield curve has ‘bear steepened’, with shorter-term rates increasing by less than longer-term rates (2-year +7bps). The renewed sell-off in US bonds extends by far the biggest drawdown in US Treasury total returns since at least the early 1970s (~13% and counting).
The sharp rise in US rates likely reflects the market reappraising Powell’s press conference performance. The initial market reaction was that Powell was less hawkish than expected because he appeared to hose down expectations of a 75bps hike. But now investors have had time to digest things, including Powell’s clear message that 50bps hikes would be on the table in the coming meetings, the market appears to have concluded that it was very hawkish after all. The market is still ascribing around a 15% chance to a 75bps Fed hike next month. Inflation concerns among investors remain heightened.
Equities have given back all their post-FOMC rally, and then some, with massive falls seen across all the major US benchmarks. The S&P500 is currently down more than 4%, with all sectors in the red, while the NASDAQ is off a huge 5.5%, taking it further into bear market territory. The highly volatile moves in equity markets, in both directions, are customary during bear markets. Market sentiment remains extremely pessimistic, with the AAII investor survey reporting investors are near their most bearish on equities since 2009.
The synchronised sell-off in both bonds and stocks is an unusual experience for the past 30 years but would be more familiar to those who have studied the 1970s. The market appears to be moving towards pricing a stagflationary scenario in which central banks need to aggressively tighten to contain inflation with the risk of a global recession rising by the day. Besides the prospect of the most rapid Fed tightening cycle since at least 1994, markets remain concerned about the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the associated energy price shock in Europe, and the lockdowns in China, which have no end in sight. The fallout from the Ukraine war and the lockdowns in China are both negative supply shocks and hence stagflationary forces for the global economy.
In line with market expectations, the Bank of England raised its cash rate by 25bps overnight, to 1%, with three of the nine committee members voting for a larger 50bps hike. The BoE painted a bleak outlook with inflation now seen peaking just above 10% later this year on the back of higher energy prices while Governor Bailey warned the economy was expected to experience “a very sharp slowdown”, with recession a serious risk - a classic stagflationary scenario. However, conditional on market pricing, inflation is then forecast to settle below target in three years’ time, at 1.3%. This was a clear sign from the BoE that it thinks market pricing of rate hikes is overdone.
Markets have reacted to the BoE’s more cautious guidance around the policy outlook, with “most” MPC members agreeing that “some degree of further tightening in monetary policy may still be appropriate in the coming months ” (our emphasis). The UK 2-year rate has fallen almost 10bps on the day, despite the big increases seen in other markets, while the GBP is off by more than 2%, matching the weakness in the NZD and AUD (see below). Meanwhile, as previously flagged, the BoE said it would get staff to work out a strategy for actively selling down its UK government bonds from its large QE portfolio, with the MPC set to consider this at the August MPC meeting. The BoE will start selling down its corporate bond holdings from September.
Not helping the mood among investors, the Chinese Caixin Services PMI index collapsed to 36.2 in April from 42 the previous month, its lowest reading since February 2020, during the initial stages of lockdown. The parallels to early 2020 are clear, with Shanghai in lockdown and Beijing at risk of joining it in the coming weeks, crippling the services industry.
The upwards trend in the USD has reasserted itself overnight with the DXY hitting a fresh 20-year high. After falling 0.9% in the wake of the FOMC meeting, the DXY index is up by 1.2% overnight, to around 103.80. The USD typically benefits during periods of heightened risk aversion and during major global growth slowdowns. Among the majors, the EUR is back to around 1.05 while USD/JPY is back above the 130 mark amidst the sharp increase in US Treasury rates.
Commodity currencies have been pummelled overnight amidst rising global growth fears and escalating risk aversion. Also not helping matters, the CNY has resumed it weakening trend, with USD/CNH approaching its recent 18-month highs, just below 6.70. The NZD and AUD are both more than 2% lower than 9am yesterday and the NOK off by a massive 2.7%. The NZD briefly traded below 0.64 a few hours ago, down from a high of almost 0.6570 yesterday morning. It is currently hovering just above 0.64, a 22-month low. The NZD/JPY and NZD/EUR crosses have both fallen more than 1%.
OPEC+ agreed to lift oil supply by a modest 432k barrels from next month, continuing its policy of gradually reversing its cuts during the pandemic. Analysts remain concerned that supply won’t match OPEC+ forecasts because of a Western buyer strike on Russian crude, in turn keeping prices elevated. OPEC+ output was only 10,000 barrels per day higher in April, despite the same commitment to increase production.
NZ rates experienced big falls yesterday on the back of the post-FOMC rally in global bonds although those moves are likely to reverse today given the sharp reversal in US Treasury yields overnight. After almost touching 4% the day before, the 2-year swap rate tumbled 11bps, to 3.89%. Even after the pullback yesterday, the market still sees a 50bps OCR hike next month as a done deal with a high chance of follow-up 50bps hikes at the subsequent two meetings. Volatility remains exceptionally high in the domestic rates market and liquidity remains patchy.
Tonight sees the nonfarm payrolls release, where the market is looking for a 380k increase in jobs and a 0.1% fall in the unemployment rate, which would match its pre-Covid lows of 3.5%. The market will also be attuned to comments from a long list of Fed officials speaking tonight including, among others, NY Fed President Williams, outspoken hawk Bullard, and Fed Governor Waller. Bullard, for one, is known to be more open to the idea of 75bps hikes.
Elsewhere, Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to fall to a new record (post-1975) low of 5.2% while BoE Chief Economist Pill and MPC member Mann are also speaking. In the session ahead, the RBA releases its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) which will lay out more detailed forecasts behind the RBA’s rate hike and revised policy outlook from earlier this week.
Events Round-Up
CH: Caixin Services PMI, Apr: 36.2 vs. 40 exp.
GE: Factory orders (m/m%), May: vs. -1.1 exp.
NO: Norges Bank deposit rate (%), May: 0.75 vs. 0.75 exp.
UK: Bank of England cash rate (%), May: 1 vs. 1 exp.
US: Initial jobless claims (k), 30-Apr: 200 vs. 180 exp.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
*Nick Smyth is Senior Interest Rate Strategist at BNZ Markets. BNZ's full Markets Today report is here.
David Chaston is away on holiday.
138 Comments
We need more economists that lived through the 70s!
Ah yes, the world doesn't have enough 70+ year old leaders...
We actually need leaders who know something else other than kicking the can down the road. Leaders who care about the future, because they won't die of old age within the decade.
This observation aligns well with the Strauss-Howe '4th turning' theory...and we probably won't see meaningful change until the current crop of sorry to say it, boomers, leave the key positions of power and influence they have. They honestly believe they want the best for everyone...but get confused that what is good for them, isn't necessarily good for everyone around them from a utilitarian perspective. They struggle to distinguish between the individual and the collective.
Of course...beauty (and likewise meaning) is always in the eyes of the beholder...and a change away from the status quo probably won't be meaningful to the typical boomer because most of our current and recent policies have been aligned to maximise economic and social utility for them....but will they care if the future generations change things up a little while they're dribbling into the PJ's at the summerset village? Doubt it..
Back when the life expectancy was 10 years less than it is today? Back when there were far less grandparents and far more workers, hence the term "baby boomer". Back when you didn't have to fork out 10 years worth of rent to your grandparents (secondary form of pension) before you could have a fair shot at home ownership?
I saw that article too - and yes, it's a problem. But on the other hand, it just highlighted a totally instrumental view of younger people - the idea that lack of affordable housing is now a problem not because it is bad for the people who need housing, but because it means older people can't get the care they need.
It just cracks me up that people think when the younger generation get into power things are going to get better. I can tell you now things are only going to get worse. Sorry to sound like a DGM but the whole planet is on a downward trajectory and no generation is prepared to even discuss the really tough moves required to turn that around because if they did they would never get into power in the first place. The human race are going to fly straight into a brick wall, the only question is when.
... I think it was our former leader here at interest.co.nz , Hickeysterical Bernard ... an arch gloomsteriser , who described the NZ economy as a housing market with some cows in the back paddock ... or words to that effect ... we really do need to tilt the economy back to productivity , and away from speculation ...
Give it time....as it stands, politicians still believe that we must protect and preserve the interests of retiring boomers - and any move outside of that, is political suicide.
If the 4th turning is correct, a day will come, where people will see how crazy those views are and will instead focus on the future and not the past. Ie policies that create prosperity for future generations and not a focus on enrichment of those entering retirement.
Strauss-Howe believe the 4th turning will end around 2028...so we have 20 years of 'crisis' from the GFC until the 4th turning is resolved. At the conclusion, the millennial generation will be the dominant force of society and gen x will look to millennnials for leadership, and not the boomers who will be seen as completely out of touch.
It might be rubbish...but if you read the book and look around society, it makes a lot of sense.
Is your brain petrified IO? "...politicians still believe that we must protect and preserve the interests of retiring boomers - and any move outside of that, is political suicide." This is just so much rubbish it is unbelievable.
The problem is not the Boomers, but big money where ever it is. they have bought the politicians lock, stock and barrel, and the politicians are too afraid to push back and serve the best interests of the country. As someone pointed out earlier there is only one Boomer left in parliament, Damien O'Connor, and if you really believe the later generations call for change is not being heard because of a rapidly falling boomer voting block, then your bigotry is seriously out of control.
Lol - Have you read The 4th Turning yet? Give it until nearer the end of this decade when millennial and gen x politicians realise they no longer need to be politically dominated/influence by the boomer demographic. That is when the 4th turning will be complete - expected to be around 2028..i.e. 20 years from the 2008 GFC.
Everyone appears to be highly strung at present.......if you find this offensive then that is unfortunate...I didn't write the book! But you can hit Strauss and Howe up if you like to tell them how they have a book that is full of bigotry!
(want me to provide some personal insults directly back at you or do you just want to get offended by most posts and fire shots in my direction?)
Its amusing how the possibility of this being true makes some people so angry....usually when there is an emotional response, its because you're getting closer to a home truth. i.e. the unconscious is becoming conscious.
"is an unusual experience for the past 30 years but would be more familiar to those who have studied the 1970s."
As a result of the 'oil shock'. So yes, there is a parallel. Globally, we are running 4mbpd down on 2018 levels (which were circa 100mbpd). That is a fair margin, considering we were going into ever-deeper debt for a decade before that drop.
"despite the same commitment to increase production."
Don't lay blame anywhere but where it should lie; that is: With lack of remaining options. Every country starts out with full stocks. Every country thinks it's a good idea to export (or some other country invades them and educates them on this point). Every country uses more and more, internally. Every country taps the best, first. Every country eventually turns from exporter to importer (it's a finite resource; no surprise) and what's left for export becomes sequentially of worse quality.
It was inevitable we would be where we are. The question is what we do about it.
You seem so despairing of the future of humanity. What about technological progress? What about nuclear? With the new nuclear SMRs the prospect of cheap, easily distributed, almost unlimited energy is just around the corner.
And with cheap, unlimited energy the future is bright. We could mine rubbish dumps if we need to, we can run desalination plants, create any resources we need. I just think that you are unnecessarily pessimistic sometimes.
And with cheap, unlimited energy the future is bright. We could mine rubbish dumps if we need to, we can run desalination plants, create any resources we need. I just think that you are unnecessarily pessimistic sometimes.
Where have I heard something like that before....
In 1954, the Atomic Energy Commission chairman predicted that within 15 years nuclear power would make electricity “too cheap to meter.”
Maybe we only need to keep waiting a little bit longer for 1969 to arrive?
I agree, if governance was efficient. However the problem is we don't swap out old inefficient generation, we just add to it (on a worldwide basis).
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
Heard of economies of scale? SMRs don't promise "cheaper power" even if uranium was an inexhaustible, non polluting energy source. "As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply. The identified reserves as of 2017 recoverable at US$260/kg are 7.99 million tons (compared to 7.64 million tons in 2015)." So we are good for 130 years, unless uranium demand should double, or triple. Good thing no one is thinking about increasing demand for uranium?
The thing is that spent fuel rods are still 95% good stuff, and 5% used stuff.
They can separate the 5% bad stuff from the fuel, but it's a really expensive process (for now) and not worth doing.
The old fuel is still a good usable resource, once we work out how to use it efficiently.
Don't wring your hands over uranium running out Palmy.
"However, the oceans of the world contain 4.5 billion tons of uranium dissolved in seawater. That’s enough to last something on the order of 6,500 years.
...In addition, the technique can even use waste fibers for a greater cost savings and that analysis shows that seawater extraction could be competitive with land mining at present prices."
Sometimes in debates we have blinkers on, occasionally without being aware of it.
While in principle I tend to agree with your line, the problem is that humanity is best at denial, especially the bad things. You suggest nuclear [power?] but in NZ are you seeing the power debate changing to ensure power is affordable for the consumer. Nope! what they are talking about instead is fiddling with the charging regime so that even if you save power you will still pay through the nose so the Government gets it's dividends!
No one is talking about the population problem. This is a biggie. In nature it is well understood the pressures of animal populations on the environment and the consequences if controls are not in place. But we are just another animal, yet that discussion is still not happening!
Somewhat frustrated at our lack of ability to address reality. Despairing? No.
Technology CANNOT substitute for energy. A Model T Ford and a Ford Ranger, are examples of technological advancement; chalk and cheese. But fill both up with fuel, and drive. Both will run to a halt with empty tanks. Then there's the Jevons Paradox - worth some study. We tell ourselves fairy-stories too; the uptake of EVs is increasing more than the uptake of gas-guzzling SUVS, so we all feel virtuous. Actually, the only count is the number of gas-guzzlers, or, more accurately, the amount of gas being guzzled. Doesn't matter a rat's a--- whether people turn to EVs, walk, catch the bus, stay at home; it's the FF consumption is the moot point, and it's increasing.
Not that that will continue....
Nuclear - like all renewables, only does electricity. Any idea the build-rate needed to phase out fossil energy, current usage? There are 400-odd plants on the planet;
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/09/30/net-zero-carbon-dio…
Dream on. Fifteen or twenty years ago, I though like you. I went ahead, off-grid and low-usage. Kept doing my homework, though. We won't be making solar panels with solar energy, so when my one fade, that will be that. All I've done is stored oil (in the manufacture of the panels), and spread it out longer. Beyond that?
Net energy payback for a solar panel is 1 - 4 years? I've read 3-6 months somewhere too .
A quick google conveys this as an old myth, probably because when you did your solar install the panels were the same generation as my office calculator...?
I don't stand by the below sources (just a quick search) however sure I could drill a bit deeper
https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/news/solar-energy-myth-buster-1-the….
https://www.solarmelon.com/faqs/solar-panels-use-energy-manufacture-act…
https://solarcraft.com/solar-energy-myths-facts/
I'm sure you've done the calcs though so happy to be proven wrong!
I would like to know too. There are 16 x 330W panels in the system here that have been installed for 6 years. To date the metering indicates that they have produced 15.7 Megawatt-hour of power (but I accept there is somewhat less deliverable energy due to inefficiencies in the storage and conversion systems). No idea how much energy went into making and delivering them, but would expect/hope it was less than the 15.7 MWh delivered so far at 20% through their expected lifetime.
I don't think in terms of payback, or money. Just energy.
Solar panels are made with fossil energy, delivered by fossil energy, would be recycled ditto. And they fade over time - although you can look after them to eke that out (and I do). So I see it as buying oil now, for when I won't be able to. Storing now energy, to use later.
Will I get more than went in? For sure. But will we be making replacements for when these ones fade, using solar? Nope. Will the energy generated equate to the displaced FF? Nope, not by some orders of magnitude. I think by century's end, we will be hydro, micro-hydro, geothermal, old-school wind (direct motion) solar-water and passive-solar. Much as I love my PV - and I'm more than 20 years off-grid, all up - I don't see then in the distant mix.
Thanks for your thoughts, my first 3 words were 'Net Energy Payback' .....
IMO you could perhaps have a 100,000m2 facility gathering 20,000kw of rooftop solar, charge up your mining equip, transport, smelt, fabricate, feed the workers and their cats, and sell the panels (whilst paying back the energy input for all the above, even the cats), albeit over a slightly longer time scale than most commercial operations would deem sensible.
They can even make energy at night:
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/07/1091320428/solar-panels-that-can-generat…
However I am probably wrong as I am not a physicist or engineer! Imaginative speculation and pontificating are favorite pass times..
Those other options you mention of course are other fantastic examples of sustainable energy production.
... or with hydro, geothermal, or wind energy?
Come to think about it, all those are also currently put in place by fossil fuels supplying the concrete, steel, earthworks, etc. In those terms, is there any distinction/difference between them and manufacturing PV panels?
The problem right now is a lack of will.
Central banks have printed massive money to keep asset prices inflated and the wealthy in their gravy over the last couple of years. Comparatively far less has been invested in addressing existential problems.
What could be done if investment was targeted? An interesting look at possibilities here: https://www.amazon.com/How-Spend-Trillion-Dollars-mysteries-ebook/dp/B0…
But life will change considerably and we need to start preparing for it. Witness how yeasty people are getting over Auckland Transport trying to make any progress on the issues currently to see how hard getting people to prepare is...
The US is eager to have this war?! Your sense of what is happening is somewhat off. The US and the EU were in denial. They didn't want it and essentially didn't believe that Putin would do it despite his history. They seemed to think diplomacy backed up with a little posturing (the US deployed a number of AF assets into the Baltic states to support their policing) would be enough to deter him, but when he finally jumped they were so shocked as to not move much for a week or so, and thus lost the opportunity to stop him cold.
Now the potentials are much worse. The diplomats are still in denial. they think that somehow, somewhere Putin will come back to the table for a negotiated peace where Ukraine gets restored, and Russia pays for the harm it has caused and we go back to 'normal'. What a joke! Western and US denial and Putin's aggression will destabilise eastern Europe for years to come unless there is a coup in Russia which replaces the government with a functioning democracy, and that just ain't likely to happen! All out war in my view can not be avoided now, the only question is how long it will take to escalate to that?
Hence why no real effort was made to stop it.
They now pour weapons into Ukraine, to weaken Russia. The brilliance being that no need to deploy troops as the Ukrainians are happy to take the hit there.
The US sees Ukraine as part its own empire since 2014 and Zelensky is shamelessly paraded by his puppet masters.
IMO there is nothing the states wont do... War is always part of their strategic thinking
https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/congress-has-removed-a-ban-o…
More rubbish. if the US really did see Ukraine as part of their empire since 2014 they would have been doing something about getting Russia out of Crimea, and would have got them into NATO. Instead Ukraine was seen as too corrupt, to close to Russia (Politically, not geographically) and Zelensky was too new for them to understand how a comedian could be an effective national leader. Try stop being anti american and take off your filters.
Zelensky is not being paraded by anybody but himself to try to force the west to support him in his fight against Russia, and you might note that the US has actually blocked some of that support (fighter aircraft from Poland).
I do agree though that there will be a bunch of arms manufacturers rubbing their hands in glee, but for a while at least yet they won't be American, as most of Ukraine's equipment is dated Russian stuff.
I’m not worried about a shortage of oil. First, there is no shortage, just an unwillingness to fully tap what is available. Second, the necessity of oil is decreasing significantly. Tesla was a bit player, now they are on track for >2M cars per annum in the near future. Volkswagen, Ford, and others are all in. Every one of those cars reduces the demand. It won’t save us from oil prices in the next few months, but the impact in the next few years will be significant.
Unwillingness? We tap the best, first. Means that every next option is 'worse'. Not just in money terms, but in energy terms. So it 'costs' more. But eventually, the work done in the future, cannot repay the capex needed now - as has been the case with fracking for a decade. In essence, society can no longer afford itself - but economics has no ability to measure that (until the mass lack-of-belief moment).
None of those cars are being made using renewable energy, and none of the roading materials they run on are feedstocked by renewable anything; gravel here we come.
Ummm just because something isn’t happening, doesn’t mean it can’t won’t/happen.
There are very few/if any processes where fossil fuels are a must from an energy perspective
Your contention seems to assume that ‘best’ is static. It’s not true. Best changes based on technology and economies of scale. The change in batteries/solar panel costs is massively above expectations and continuing.
The power of fossils fuels isn’t that they are objectively the most efficient past and future energy source it’s that they are the incumbent. Diesel engines for example have had over a century of innovation and production at a global scale. Coal has been going for hundreds of years. Of course they are cheap.
The trick is to push alternatives to a similar stage and watch the costs drop. Has happened with wind, has happened with solar, has happened with batteries. We will get there.
The sharp rise in US rates likely reflects the market reappraising Powell’s press conference performance.
Who’s Playing Puppetmaster, And Who Is Master of Puppets
It’s the eurodollar’s world, and we’re all just trying to live in it. And to drive this point home for the third time this week: 4-week T-bill today at 49 bps yield with RRP set to be 80 bps tomorrow.
OPEC+ agreed to lift oil supply by a modest 432k barrels from next month, continuing its policy of gradually reversing its cuts during the pandemic. Analysts remain concerned that supply won’t match OPEC+ forecasts because of a Western buyer strike on Russian crude, in turn keeping prices elevated. OPEC+ output was only 10,000 barrels per day higher in April, despite the same commitment to increase production.
More sanctions!! - US Senate Passes NOPEC Antritrust Bill, Paving Way For Biden To Sue OPEC
Natural Gas Jun '22 (NGM22) - the US LNG tanker trips to Europe costing consumers both sides of the Atlantic.
Where will NZ fit in?
Morning HM
Just keeping your comments balanced and in perspective, HouseMouse.
What about your mortgage?
I said that 2.99% for 5 years was great. You said "nah" . . . rates will go back to 2 to 3%.
Ouch! On that $500k mortgage you said you have, well come the start of 2024 that call could be easily costing you $10K a year.
Just in case you think I am misrepresenting you:
by HouseMouse | 16th Feb 22, 6:19pm
Wouldn't touch the 3 year with a barge pole. Mortgage rates will be back in the 2-3% range within 2 years.
What an asshole. Chasing and trolling me now?
But a few points:
- Ok but I have benefited from interest rates near 2% for longer right? And I don’t reveal all my financial decisions but I can tell you now I have been paying down more debt at that ultra low rate
- Are you sure the OCR won’t be cut back aggressively in 2023 as the economy slumps?
- I might be wrong on the OCR peak but the peak might still be well lower than what you think
You've become a threat to P8's superiority here HouseMouse so you must be silenced and discredited.
He's a bit like the Disinformation Governane Board or Ministry of Truth. He gets to chose what you have said in the past, in order to make you look wrong and him look correct in the present.
Classic play, similar to what Orwell describes in 1984. You just rewrite history in order to control the thinking of other people.
He did the same to me recently. I made a comment 2 years ago how I found it stupid that a bank would lend me enough to buy a $1.5 million house. A few months ago this guy (loser8) quoted my exact comment, pointing out that I made a bad decision because I would've made like $300k in equity.
Well, loser8 seems to be like one of those guys who like to celebrate too early. If I bought a house for 1.5 mill 2 years ago, I'd be in deep sh** with the prospected interest rate rises... Not to mention the ongoing price falls.
I'd say he'd score highly for narcissism and possibly even some psychopath personality traits if he were ever tested.
He would have been up all night trying to figure out how he was going to get back at HouseMouse after the little online tussle last night! Then shots fired first thing this morning on HouseMouses first post lol. He'll be sipping his morning latte now with his ego feeling much more secure in his superior knowledge of all things housing ponzi/people farming related - espeically now that he's silenced House Mouse who was starting to see through the facade.
IO
You need to check last night. :)
Baywatch noted I had not been posting.
However, Brock and you initiated things by attempting to slag me. HouseMouse - after I had offered him an olive branch three or four weeks ago - couldn’t contain himself.
I stand by my comments; this site is about debate and part of that is being willing to be challenged on what one has said. It actually refers to “robust debate.
However, yet again I am prepared to lay down the olive branch - not because I’m concerned - but a gesture of goodwill. The ball is in your, Brock’s and Housemouse’s court.
this site is about debate and part of that is being willing to be challenged on what one has said.
That's all well and good, but you respond to challenges with personal insults. You've shown time and time again that you're more interested in winding people up than actually engaging in reasoned discussion. So it's all very big of you to be 'prepared to lay down the olive branch as a gesture of goodwill' but I'm afraid your record shows that your 'goodwill' if it ever existed in the first place very quickly goes out the window the moment anyone disagrees with you about anything. It's pretty clear that you for some reason get your kicks out of being nasty to anonymous strangers and are intent on using this forum to do just that as long as you can get away with it.
Ouch. not sure how you guys drag out those old quotes, do cut and paste them into a "little black HM" folder for example to use at a later date ? some pretty impressive stalking goes on here. There has been several things I would love to post on here but have had to bite my fingers to stop typing them knowing full well they could come back and bite me in the arse.
I have kept most of mine too. The ambiguous capital gains rules in NZ make it a little tricky to move nimbly unless you are happy to be classified as a trader and pay income tax on cap gains. Trade too often and the IRD will take a close look at what your intent truly was.
What with?
It was paying with unrepayable debt (sans massive inflation).
Now it will have to pay in roubles - worse, they will be related to oil (as Kissinger understood, mid-70s, hence the US petrodollar).
I think the First World may well be on the cusp of becoming the new Third - doesn't produce much, has no remaining skills, won't be able to keep all its balls in the air.
... market a little flaccid ...got the floppy flops ... can't get it up ?
Call the Central Banker Man ... our hero , the caped crusader to the rescue with his big fat printing press ...
... QE in the morning ... QE at lunch ... QE in the evening , oh what a delight : we got it up again , joy !
US Productivity Just Crashed By The Most Since 1947 As Labor Costs Explode
And while some might proclaim the surge in labor costs as a win for the average joe, we note that BLS reports that 'Real' compensation tumbled 5.5% in Q1.Probably a good time to embark on 10 more rate-hikes this year.
"the list was dominated by highly-processed foods which were well known to contribute to poor health.
It’s a real shame not to see more fresh whole foods there. These are foods that should be the bulk of what we eat, and are also some of the ones people are finding are getting more and more expensive.”
Although pleased to see some canned vegetables on the list, Bezzant said it would have been good to see frozen vegetables and more proteins like meat or fish included.
”I’d rather see chicken and broccoli than pancake mix and ice cream cones. And I think most people would agree those fresh foods are more essential than the treaty ones.”
Thanks Countdown
Brand management is so complex, Countdown used to be the peoples friend, then they started towing peoples cars and impounding them for parking in their car parks. "Come buy from us friend just don't park in our carpark too long or..."
I can imagine them talking to their brand consultants " we used to be huggers, then Metoo changed us to polite hand shakes, Covid turned us into head-nodders and now we are muggers"
Earlier it was normal for speculators / developers to to buy with long settlement and many times as prices will go up will take the procession and resell.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/128403463/developer-…
If earlier when price was going up during the long settlement were enjoying, so why now the issue, when price may have fallen.
Quite a few mum and dad new builders are having trouble as. not able to sell off the plan and to add, banks are getting tight so expect many distress sell in coming months to avoid default.
"The developer bought the property sight unseen at auction seven months ago, for $4.07 million – at the time a record price for Drury village. He paid an unrefundable deposit of 5%, but was apparently prepared to forfeit that to walk away from the deal"
Paying $4 million for something sight unseen....WTF. Shows just how reckless things were getting last year. If there is pain ahead, we deserve every bit of it. Its a basic principle of life...reaping what you sow. And we've sowed the seeds of financial crisis through small minded and self-interested stupidity.
First he tried to get them to discount half a million. When that failed he negotiated to settle on one of the 2 titles for 2.5 million including all the deposit he had paid for both titles. Delayed settlement until September for property number 2. He now has control over property 1 so he has the control over the future value of property 2 as both combined are needed to make the town house development viable (if it ever was). Property 1 will be onsold/transferred to new legal entities. Proceeds used to settle debts. Likely he asks for an even bigger discount when it comes time to settle in September. Or he walks away from that deal scot free. He will make sure there is nothing available to extract by legal means. Eventual owner of property 2 be it him or someone else will always need property 1 for viability. Agents want to make it easier for developers and only ask for 5% deposit. Enough to cover their commission and auction fees.
So he is prepared to walk away from his deposit. How generous of him.
The Vendor should be using the deposit they have got to sue them for specific performance, just as many developers will be lining up to sue all those people that have bought off the plan, on newly built developments coming up for completion and settlement, and now find themselves not being able to confirm finance.
Most developers don't have deep pockets, hence it's more the banks call than the developers.
And you would be amazed how many people end up settling after they tell you they can't. And they don't have to sue many for the word to get out, otherwise, you start the wrong type of precedent and create a moral hazard for yourself going forward.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.