Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank trimmed some key rates to a market-leading 3.78%.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Both Westpac and Kiwibank cut a range of TD rates today. Details here. Revised rates from Christian Savings are mostly lower.
WHERE RATES ARE HEADING
Kiwibank economists are now predicting a 'terminal' Official Cash Rate by next year of 0.75%, but also put some possibility on the rate going to 0.5%. And there is more here.
DECELERATING
New car sales were flat in July, down -1.4% from the same month in 2018 and continuing a trend of falling year-on-year outcomes that now stretches to nine of the past eleven months. SUV sales were also soft, and represented just over 65% of all car sales and the lowest share for any month in 2019. Commercial vehicle sales were much weaker, down -7.3% year-on-year. The vehicle market has been retreating overall since its high point in August 2018.
UNDER PRESSURE
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index fell -1.4% month-on-month in July. The recent fall in forestry prices weighed on the index, with dairy price movements also negative. The index has weakened by -0.5% in the past year.
NOT GLITTERING
Retail investors bought only 210 tonnes of gold in the June quarter, the lowest level in four years and the second lowest quarter in almost ten years. Gold sales for jewelry were pretty flat too, as Chinese demand sags. This data is all from the World Gold Council. ETF demand is also very average. Meanwhile, supply is relatively strong with mine and scrap channels still pushing product through at a solid clip. The only place where demand is good is from pariah governments, with their central banks buying 224 tonnes in the June quarter and close to the September 2018 high (it's been about half that level in-between times).
BLOODBATH BREWING?
Equity markets have opened this week sharply lower. The NZX50 is down -0.7% so far today. The ASX is down -1.1%. Shanghai has opened -0.5% lower, while across the thin border Hong Kong is down a massive -2.4% and Tokyo is also down -2.4%. Hold on to your hats for Wall Street and European markets tonight.
XI GIVES TRUMP THE FINGERS
At its official fix today the Chinese yuan went above the psychological barrier of 7 to the US dollar. Now wait for the Americans to whine. But they really have little basis to do so having wrecked both their trade relationship and the influence they once might have had, by using cheap bully tactics.
SWAP RATES SINK
Wholesale swap rates are down another -3 bps so far today and across the curve. The 90-day bank bill rate has slipped another -3 bps to 1.43%. Australian swap rates are also a little softer today ahead of a no-change rate review expected tomorrow. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down -5 bps to 1.04%. (This is a rate that started the year at 2.3%). The China Govt 10yr is down -3 bps at 3.11%, while the NZ Govt 10 yr down -4 bps today 1.35%. The UST 10yr yield is down further, now at just 1.77% and -7 bps since the open this morning.
NZ DOLLAR RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar fell almost -½c today, then recovered and is now just on 65.2 USc. Against the Aussie we holding at 96.2 AU cents. Against the euro we are softer at 58.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now down under 70.5.
BITCOIN JUMPS
Bitcoin is strongly higher today at US$11,632 and up +10%, or more than +US$1,200 since this time on Friday. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This chart is animated here.
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