Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ has raised its home loan rate card for some key fixed terms.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
AUCKLAND HOUSE SALES TURN UP
A surge of new listings and the best sales numbers in four years were reported by Barfoot & Thompson in January. And B&T's drop out rate fell to an all-time low in January. Average prices rose +2.6% in a year, median prices were up +6.9%.
DWELLING CONSENTS BOOM
The number of new dwellings consented in Auckland in December was up +31% on the same month of 2018. This drove a +22% rise in the national data. Waikato (+29%) and Wellington (+88%) data were up strongly as well. But there was a decline recorded in Christchurch (-0.5%). For all of 2019, residential building consents were up +14%, driven by apartments (+34%) and townhouses (+26%). A number of analysts think the Auckland activity is peaking.
FEWER CAR SALES
New car sales were down -8% in January compared with the same month a year ago. Commercial vehicle sales were down too, but by much less a drop. The sales of SUV's surged by more than +5% despite the overall fall, and they accounted for more than 70% of all sales, a new all-time high. Pure electric vehicle sales were softer with 140 units sold in January, with PHEV’s up slightly at 88 units, and 647 hybrid vehicles, continuing their strong sales for the month. These type of vehicles won a 9.6% market share in January.
COMMERCIAL CONSENTS MAKE A MOVE TOO
Non-residential consents grew +12% in the December month from a year ago, which helped push the annual value of non-residential consents in 2019 to over +5 higher than in 2018. The Government was behind much of this increased activity, but the consent for the $26 mln redevelopment of the O’Connells Shopping Centre in Queenstown was also notable.
FMA HAS 'SEVERAL' AML INVESTIGATIONS 'WELL ADVANCED'
Financial Markets Authority CEO Rob Everett says the regulator has "several" anti-money laundering investigations well-advanced, and a "sizeable" market manipulation investigation underway. Everett made the comments in a speech at a Financial Services Council event without providing details.
CBL'S HARRIS PLEADS 'NOT GUILTY' TO SFO CHARGES
Peter Harris, the former CEO of CBL insurance Ltd has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges brought by the Serious Fraud Office. Harris faces five charges of ‘Theft by person in special relationship’, two charges of ‘Obtaining by deception’ and a single charge of ‘False accounting’. Another defendant in the case who has name suppression also entered a not guilty plea, the SFO says. This defendant has been charged with single counts, respectively, of ‘Theft by person in special relationship’, ‘Obtaining by deception’ and ‘False accounting’. Harris and his co-defendant were remanded on bail to reappear in the Auckland District Court on 30 April.
GRUMPY BUSINESSES
In Australia, the January Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 2.9pts (-2.8%) to a nearly nine-year low of 101.6. Business Confidence has only been lower during the last decade when it briefly dipped below the neutral level of 100 in July 2011 (99.8) during the height of the European sovereign debt crisis.
THE LOWE-DOWN IS DUE
The RBA is reviewing its monetary policy settings and cash rate target today. No-one expects it to make any changes. The current interest policy rate benchmark is 0.75%. The decision will be released at 4:30pm today.
DID YOU REALISE HOW MUCH HAS BURNED - SO FAR?
Fires in NSW have burnt almost 5.5 mln hectares since July, leaving a mounting damage bill. Add the huge areas in Victoria and the ACT and you are heading towards 10 mln hectares. Just so you can put that into perspective, the South Island is 15 mln hectares. Fortunately for eastern Australia, the rains may be coming soon.
THE EQUITY MARKET SIGNALS
The relief rally on Wall Street sort of ran out of stream. At one point earlier today the S&P500 was up +1.3% but it ended up 'only +0.7%. The NZX50 and the ASX200 have opened our time zone with widely differing tracks, with the NZX50 down -0.3% -1.6% and the ASX200 is up +0.4% so far. Tokyo is up +0.2% in early trade and Hong Kong is up more than +1.3% at the opening. Shanghai is opening up +0.6% after yesterday's -7.9% drop. Equity markets are pretty schizophrenic while they try to make sense of the likely early intermediate economic impact. But with now more than 20,000 cases and rising, the fear is of a global pandemic. (And its probably not near its peak, as I suggested this morning.)
BANKING 'RELIEF'
Westpac NZ is offering some banking relief for customers hit hard by the impact of the corona virus. Their relief package features a range of support options for both business and personal customers. These may include: a temporary overdraft facility; suspension of principal loan payments for up to three months; and deferred payment on business credit cards for up to three months. Other banks will likely follow. More broadly, credit rating agency S&P is watching how China's banks handle a real live stress test.
EYES ON THE NEXT DAIRY AUCTION
Speaking of corona virus consequences, there is a dairy auction tomorrow morning. It is widely expected to result in a substantial price drop. The dairy derivatives markets is suggesting a -6.5% fall for SMP and more than a -10% fall for WMP. Buckle up.
LOCAL SWAP RATES GO LOWER
Wholesale swap rates still falling, today down another -2 bps across all tenors. This is despite some expectation that they might have risen a little today. The 90-day bank bill rate is down -1 bp to 1.25%. Australian swap rates are also lower across the board but by only by -1 bp in early trade. The Aussie Govt 10yr is down another -3 bps today to 0.84%. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.86% which is where it ended yesterday. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is down -3 bps at 1.22%. The UST 10yr yield is holding at 1.53%.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer at 64.5 USc. We have unchanged against the Aussie at 96.5 AUc. Against the euro we also holding at 58.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is just under 70.
BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin is virtually unchanged today US$9,314. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.
This chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
32 Comments
"In 1974, 117 million hectares burned. The area burnt, 117 million hectares, is equivalent to the combined total area of France, Spain, and Portugal."
Edit:
For people grasping at straws and who haven't figured out google search -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_bushfire_seasons
Climate skeptics data from a reddit post...is that where you get your data from? The season ends in May from your post ..2020 might be a record ..
2019–20 Australian bushfire season
At least 2,680 homes lost[1]
33 deaths (including four firefighters and three US firefighters operating a Lockheed Martin C-130 Large Air Tanker that crashed in the Snowy Monaro Region of southern NSW)[2][3][4][5]
At least 1.25 billion wild animals killed[6]
At least 18.626 million hectares (46.03 million acres) burned[7]
2018–19 Australian bushfire season: 35 houses lost, 1 fatality
2017–18 Australian bushfire season: 94 buildings lost
2016–17 Australian bushfire season: 46 houses lost
While some have pointed out that Australia has always experienced bushfires, Prof Pyne said these massive, destructive fires appeared to be occurring more frequently in the last 20 years or so.
“Undoubtedly climate change is real and my sense is that it’s acting as a performance enhancer,” he said.
“Fires are becoming more and more savage, and they are more frequent. They used to happen every 30 or 50 years, now they seem to be happening by the decade.”
Houses burned as predicted. Blood on the ecotards hands. "Forest fuel levels have worsened over the past 30 years because of "misguided green ideology", vested interests, political failure and mismanagement, creating a massive bushfire threat, a former CSIRO bushfire scientist has warned.
Victoria's "failed fire management policy" is an increasing threat to human life, water supplies, property and the forest environment, David Packham said in a submission to the state's Inspector-General for Emergency Management.
And he argued that unless the annual fuel reduction burning target, currently at a minimum of 5 per cent of public land, "is doubled or preferably tripled, a massive bushfire disaster will occur. The forest and alpine environment will decay and be damaged possibly beyond repair and homes and people [will be] incinerated."
He said forest fuel levels had climbed to their most dangerous level in thousands of years. "
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/bushfire-scientist-david-pa…
Slight problem, the reason the burn-offs didn't happen.. it was too dry to risk it. Not that green policy was stopping the controlled burns.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-13/is-the-prescribed-burn-window-cl…
The ABC? Ground zero of global warming hysteria. Aussie is getting wetter, particularly in autumn, and greener. But don't let facts get in the way of a good diatribe.
"Our new study in Nature also shows how fire emissions – normally a big factor in reducing Australia’s capacity to store carbon – were suppressed by about 30%, contributing even further to the continent’s greening.
In addition to the unprecedented vegetation greening of Australia during 2010 and 2011, we also observe a greening trend over the continent since 1980s, particularly during the months of the Australian autumn (March, April, and May).
That has happened for a number of reasons, including increased continental rainfall over the past few decades; plants growing in an atmosphere with increasing carbon dioxide using water more efficiently; and changes in land management such as fire suppression, expansion of invasive species, and changes in livestock grazing that have led to more woodland."
https://theconversation.com/amp/record-rains-made-australia-a-giant-gre…
And in Australia , as noted above, Mr Lowe of the RBA , held the OCR at a ridiculously high 0.75 percent, noting that a further reduction would not be acceptable at this point as the NZD would reach parity. However of concern , he noted that Auckland house prices ( and "surging" sales ) continue to outperform the major Australian cities, so depending on incoming information, QE later in the year should accelerate house prices compensating for the unnecessary fall in iron ore.
Wu Flu.
20,000 and 430 dead.. 2.1% death rate.
Shouldn't we compare the death rate against last weeks infection rate as the deaths were not from this weeks newly recorded infections.
10,000 and 430 dead. 4.2%..
Recoveries against deaths maybe an even better indication... 430 dead 650 recovered. Arround 40% death rate.
Post your maths.
When it comes to China, I like to see what SepentZA has got to say.
And since he's got a Chinese doctor as his wife and knows some young doctors, I tend to believe him.
Here he is on the corona virus:
Coronavirus - Doctors Arrested for revealing the truth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HE7Iz7HLpYg
It was doctors who first tried to raise the alarm of the spread of the virus and they were detained and forced to sign confessions...
You're correct, there's an average of 14 days from first symptoms to death, if you assume a week to get tested & confirmed then I'd say it's reasonable to compare against a week ago. The overall CFR might not be higher due to non reporting of mild cases but of you think the deaths are peaking you're sadly mistaken.
The Lancet report states 14 days from first symptoms to death on average. Given the circumstances I think it's reasonable to assume there's probably a number of days delay between onset of symptoms and the time when someone goes to the doctor and then probably a few more until they're tested and confirmed.
Again for the death rate you need to take into account the fact that there's probably significant under reporting of total infections (some estimate up to 10x) due to limits to available tests and asymptomatic cases.
probably more like a week between confirmation of infection and death so deaths recorded are really against the incremental infection numbers from a week earlier - at current rates about 20-25% of infected or about 4-5x mortality. But on the other side of the equation a lot of cases are not being confirmed by testing - likely 10x or more, so mortality amongst the chinese population, (relatively old and with a huge number of heavy smokers) is probably still in the low 1-2% range.
Wuhan is quite radical in term of the new cases development comparing to the rest of China. And you need to take it into the consideration. My calculation of the average fatality rate is 1.8% as of yesterday. tbh I don't think our calculations are meaningful anyway because I believe the official stats is inaccurate. There were people who lost their lives before they could be tested because the hospitals reached the capacity. In such a case, they're not part of the stats. People also doing YouTube lives from Wuhan and I watched some, man it's a terrible place to be. You can feel the depression. Resources are low, neighbour's entire family got infected, the whole apartment building is in lockdown, they just can't see the end of it... this is China's Chernobyl. My thoughts are with those people. I'm glad NZers will be pulled out soon.
South China Morning Post today on new laws/penalties associated with coronavirus;
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-chi…
Anyone found intentionally spreading the coronavirus to cause public harm could face a charge of endangering public security by dangerous means, which carries the death penalty, the notice said, without providing details on what constituted spreading the virus intentionally.
The downsides of a nasty totalitarian state:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/03/asia/coronavirus-doctor-whistle-blow…
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