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A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; some minor retail rate changes, fewer complaints, two-speed retail, more big bond tenders, swaps & NZD unchanged, & more

A review of things you need to know before you go home on Thursday; some minor retail rate changes, fewer complaints, two-speed retail, more big bond tenders, swaps & NZD unchanged, & more
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Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Co-operative Bank has trimmed their fixed rates more into line with the main banks. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
NZ Employees Credit Union has cut their TD rates today. More here.

MORE INFORMATION REQUESTS, FEWER COMPLAINTS
The Utilities Disputes service fielded +17% more inquiries in 2019/20 than the year before, but had -10% fewer complaints. 7,815 people contacted this disputes resolution service with concerns or complaints about electricity, gas, water, or broadband installation on shared property. Electricity and gas issues accounted for almost 90% of the contacts, followed by a few hundred about broadband installation on shared property, and even fewer about water supply.

MORE POSITIVE NOW FOR ONE OF THE TWO-SPEED CHANNELS
Retailer confidence
remained positive in July, building on the rebound recorded in June after lockdown was lifted. Three of four retailers responding to a new Retail Radar survey reported feeling confident or very confident that their business will survive the next 12 months, up significantly from just 39% in May. But 13% are expecting to make employees redundant when the Wage Subsidy ends. July Paymark data supports the view that generally, retailing is in reasonable shape.

MORE REBATES
AA Insurance has followed Tower in issuing almost $20 mln in premium rebates to customers because of the reduced likelihood of motor insurance claims during the COVID-19 lockdown period. AA Insurance first announced these rebates in April.

MORE GOVT BONDS ISSUED
Treasury tendered another $950 mln in bonds today, the first for August. It starts what will be another big month. These are on top of the $3.6 bln in July and $3.2 bln in June and those totals don't include the syndicated offers of $4.5 bln in July and $7 bln in June. In today's April 2023 offer, $450 mln was sought and $1.64 bln was bif. Only seven bidders were successful and their winning yield was 0.32% which was similar to the prior tender. The April 2029 offer for $350 mln brought more than $1 bln in bods and the winners made do with a yield of 0.66% pa and far lower than the prior 0.85% pa. The final tranche was for $150 mln of April 2033 bonds and $472 mln was bid. It was won at a yield of 0.89% pa, also sharply lower than the 1.09% yield in the previous tender for this term.

MORE DIRECT?
China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, for three years in its onshore foreign exchange market in a clear move to skirt the US dollar. These fee exemptions don't apply to the US dollar, the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Hong Kong dollar or the Australian dollar. China has made virtually no progress in getting its currency recognised in international transactions in the past ten years and this move isn't thought to improve matters much. In fact, Chinese banks themselves are still mainly using the US dollar as the default choice to settle cross-border trade, investment and financing. China really want to avoid using the US-regulated SWIFT system, although they are finding progress glacial.

GOLD UPDATE
The gold price has pushed on up in Asian markets after closing at $2040/oz in New York earlier. It is now at US$2042, but that is still lower than the London close last night at US$2048/oz. Silver may have run out of steam however, or at least just taking a break. It was at US$26.95/oz in London, then unchanged in New York, and now almost the same in Asian trade.

EQUITY UPDATES
Earlier, the S&P500 ended up +0.6% in New York. In early trade Shanghai is down -0.7%, Hong Kong is down -1.6% and Tokyo is down -0.3%. The ASX200 is up +0.2% in early afternoon trade while the NZX50 Capital Index is down -0.2%.

SWAP RATES UPDATE
Swap rates were probably little-changed again today. We don't have final wholesale swap rates movement details yet, but we will update this later in the day if they show a significant different movement. The 90-day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.30%. The Aussie Govt 10yr is up +4 bps at 0.86%. The China Govt 10yr is slightly firmer at 2.98%. And the NZ Govt 10yr yield is +6 bps higher at 0.78%. The UST 10yr has risen +3 bps to 0.54% today, and off a record low.

NZ DOLLAR HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar unchanged today from this time yesterday, still at 66.4 USc. And against the Aussie we are down again to 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 55.9 euro cents. And that means the TWI-5 is a little softer at 69.3.

BITCOIN STAYS FIRM
The price of bitcoin is up +4.4% in a day to US$11,663. The bitcoin price is charted in the currency set below.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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End of day UTC
Source: CoinDesk

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24 Comments

Brent has been up to $7 above WTI, what's this say about the US dollar oil peg, broken?

Oil market groupthink is of producer control: counterexample 1985 Tin Crash after 30 yr cartel
The ongoing flood of #crude oil into China is obscuring the fact that demand in the rest of Asia remains weak, and that countries in the world's top-consuming region didn't join #China is stocking up when prices slumped.
Also obscures weak China product demand. China/insiders made massive profits from Covid shock & IMHO China used it to take (long prepared) strategic control of oil market pricing. Chris Cook.

https://in.reuters.com/article/column-russell-oil-asia/column-chinas-sur...

Today at the gym, one guy was talking out aloud about how a mate of his trades in gold and silver coins and buillion.
(I couldn't help but recall the story of a shoe-shine boy giving Joe Kennedy stock tips back in 1929.)

13
up

It concerns me to hear this as well (as an 'old school' investor in PMs), even on the relatively informed spaces of interest dot co dot nz.

Nevertheless, if you tracked media content related to gold vs say housing investment in NZ and Australia, it would probably suggest we're still a long way from irrational exuberance driven by the shoeshine effect in the gold markets .

How dare he hedge against worldwide currency devaluation. Very worrisome.

Always makes me laugh how people will jump into something because it’s just gone up. Normally that’s a good reason to avoid it IMO. (Except of course housing which just seems to keep going up forever lord help us).

One of the biggest events that the world has ever known on top of a massive bull run. PM's history shows it is insurance in tough times.

You would think the shoe shine effect would apply to equities and Robin Hood investors.

A lot of money being pumped into gold ETFs through RobinHood. No gold ETFs on Sharesies.

PM's is seldom heard of, a hell of a lot more CV was a hoax, which is basically the opposite of PM insurance.
Silvers little unchanged simce this morning just added 50 cents US.

John Key mentioned that apprx 50% of ANZ's bank customers had balances of <$7,000. Good to hear he's in touch with reality.

I would say that this is confidential information.

He was referring to Australia and he did say it in an interview with Du Plessis. All the evidence over at Granny Herald.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12354064

No mucking around
Victoria Police have handed out 176 fines of $1650 for breaching coronavirus directions in the past 24 hours

So two advertisements within 5 mins on newstalk ZB this evening promoting gold and silver bullion...it’s started..

All I get is local real estate agents shilling. It continues....

An outfit called nzvault.co.nz is advertising heavily on NewstalkZB
Offering bullion buy-sell brokerage services + storage vault holding services
They are not registered with the FMA

Goldcorp! Statue bro?

Ah, Amalgamated Broom, South Pine, Hellabys, Healing, Morrison.

All aboard the magic bus......

Look, its quite simple - we are doomed, as explained by my guru, Jeremiah Babe:
US ECONOMY IS DEAD - UNEMPLOYMENT NIGHTMARE - BAILOUT CASH - CREDIT CARD CRISIS - DOLLAR COLLAPSE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcX_OhG_WC8&t=487s

I rest my case.

At the grass roots here in Northland I have three friends, out of their houses, 60s plus, salt of the earth workers. Two singles can’t find a rental, landlords are heading home from city to live after 5 years, or more. The couple been renting there 10 years plus. There ain’t nothing. One contract painter, no real work since lockdown. It’s real out here in the sticks. No gold bars or PMIs, no work either. I’m just surprised the effect we are seeing already in everyday workers losing jobs. Popped into Cowleys Party Hire, see about external shower, toilet blocks to rent, maybe we can do something in a paddock. Nope - they are closing down party hire for 12 months. Don’t bother going North that’s already closed. In Ruakaka they are giving out more fruit n vege n food bags than ever. On the ground, at the coal face, with everyday resourceful people, it’s real.

Well then Who's getting Shane-O's pork barrel money then?

Well there was the 160,000 rotten pine seedlings I suppose. Ruakaka race course is staying open for 1 event this year so far I’m aware of. Personally we are lucky we garden n fish and have work n savings. Not everyone had that opportunity though. Community is good here and all these people be looked after. I get a bit cynical of the real estate cheer leaders pumping it up and oh look how good it is, I just made 900,000, blah blah, gold n silver smashing it. Offering a contrast. Wonder if Shane-o needs some more silk boxers, they must right up there $$ wise. Might be flax boxers tho.

Thanks - not the sort of info that is getting much air time at the mo (as you say, its all about how great markets are holding up). I suspect a bunch of AKL money is headed your way wanting to buy a slice of what you have up there.

Days to the General Election: 19
See Party Policies here. Party Lists here.